Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[jay from jersey]

All stats have some sort of value. Even the dreaded +/-. They all have a story to tell. Just to use the "dumb stat" +/-, there is absolutely an amount of value, however small, when comparing players on the same team. Obviously, other stats tell better, deeper stories.

There is one big pitfall that I see happening with G & xG and the like, for and against, raw, %, per 60, or whatever. Let's say a guy has a better G% than xG%. There's a chance that the guy simply bucks the trend and is more effective than the formula expects. There's also the chance that the guy has had some puck luck and should regress to the mean over time. There's no true predictive answer.

If you flip a coin and get 3 heads in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. Once there's a human element involved, then it becomes a conundrum like the Sicilian in Princess Bride where it could be argued that he's both "on fire," and/or "due for a loss."

A guy has a breakout season at 27. We're all idiots arguing whether he's taken the next step as a player, or just had a one-hit wonder year. One side is going to be right 5 years down the road, but it doesn't make them "smarter" than the other side. If it were that easy, then chart heads could just print money using a betting app.

I try to acknowledge both possible outcomes, but "hope for the best" with our guys. It's healthier for my mentals. LOL

I was laughing at people ready to dump Laffy in the offseason, and I'm ready to laugh at Kakko haters this summer. I might be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong than a total downer like some. =)

Kakko s biggest hurdle is going to be the opportunity he’s going to get here.
Laf has become the defacto #1 RW.
Zibby is set in stone at 1A/1B center due to prior current and performance/contract status…. Up to this time Kakko doesn’t really have any mojo going with him and Kreider.

I think he gets a 1 year deal from NYR, but it’s quickly becoming shit or get off the pot time with him….
If he’s going to stay a 3rd line guy with no PP/PK time the question is going to be with guys on the farm getting closer do you sign Kakko for 3 years 4 to 4-5 mill? Or do you get similar production from Berard or Othmann on an ELC and improve the team in another area from trading Kakko??
Does his agent even want him to sign a deal here longer then 1 year knowing that he’s not getting top 2 line minutes or any special teams time????
Kakko is def a solid player. I doubt we’ve seen the best from him, but I don’t think NYR ever will in his current situation.
Would it surprise me if he’s traded and performs really well in a top 2 line role with PP time? No….
But barring a triumphant injury free year from chytil next year or a trade for a really good 2-way play making 3C I don’t see him getting the minutes to produce more then 35-40 pts….
I would really love for chytil to return healthy.
I would also love it if NYR can somehow manage to sign Stephenson as a UFA……
I think the only way Kakko is kept here long term is if they can role 3 lines that can score/defend with regularity…..
In a situation like that, all parties may be satisfied with a longer term commitment.

 

[RangerBoy]

Kakko s biggest hurdle is going to be the opportunity he’s going to get here.
Laf has become the defacto #1 RW.
Zibby is set in stone at 1A/1B center due to prior current and performance/contract status…. Up to this time Kakko doesn’t really have any mojo going with him and Kreider.

I think he gets a 1 year deal from NYR, but it’s quickly becoming shit or get off the pot time with him….
If he’s going to stay a 3rd line guy with no PP/PK time the question is going to be with guys on the farm getting closer do you sign Kakko for 3 years 4 to 4-5 mill? Or do you get similar production from Berard or Othmann on an ELC and improve the team in another area from trading Kakko??
Does his agent even want him to sign a deal here longer then 1 year knowing that he’s not getting top 2 line minutes or any special teams time????
Kakko is def a solid player. I doubt we’ve seen the best from him, but I don’t think NYR ever will in his current situation.
Would it surprise me if he’s traded and performs really well in a top 2 line role with PP time? No….
But barring a triumphant injury free year from chytil next year or a trade for a really good 2-way play making 3C I don’t see him getting the minutes to produce more then 35-40 pts….
I would really love for chytil to return healthy.
I would also love it if NYR can somehow manage to sign Stephenson as a UFA……
I think the only way Kakko is kept here long term is if they can role 3 lines that can score/defend with regularity…..
In a situation like that, all parties may be satisfied with a longer term commitment.

I don't Kakko will be happy to remain in his current role. He wants more TOI.

 

[RangerBoy]

Everyone wants to trade Trouba and Lindgren and replace them with softer players. The Rangers need to get bigger and tougher to play against. I like Rempe and he should be in the top 12 for next season. Othmann is a rough and tumble guy.

Goodrow had a very good game last night. Lalonde knows him from TB. Yzerman might look to replace Lalonde. Berube? Maybe. Detroit is one team which has cap space. Yzerman has Seider and Raymond up for contracts this summer. No arbitration rights. Veleno has arbitration rights. I like Veleno. He was a big scorer in the Q. He won't be that type of player in the NHL but he is becoming a good player. Good size. 6-1 205. Skates well. He would be a good fit on the Rangers. $2M is his contract projection. 2 year contract.

 

[jay from jersey]

I don't Kakko will be happy to remain in his current role. He wants more TOI.

I agree…. At at least the guarantee of it happening in the near future….
Another thing that probably will not happen.
They probably settle with each other on a 1 year show me deal if he’s not dealt this offseason.
Younger guys are coming up and should be ready by end of next season or sooner…. Moves are coming.
That’s the way I see it

 

[haohmaru]

This is Lafreniere’s fourth season. After his 2022-23 season, he showed signs of breaking out and was never a trade candidate. Beginning his fourth year, he did what we hoped he would do.

This is Kakko’s fifth year. IMO That’s enough time to tell you what you have. I think he will be available this offseason. Not necessarily shopped but hasn’t done enough to get a long term contract extension.

Usually see things (mostly) as you do, but this one I think is off target. Kakko still has flashes and, to me, it's a confidence thing. Even if he is what he is and that's all he'll ever be, then he's a cost controlled Jesper Fast on steroids and that's perfectly fine for me.

Unless something absolutely knocks my socks off, if I'm the Rangers GM Kakko is going nowhere.

 

[noncents]

it would be so stupid to trade kakko for veleno.

kakko has the ability to make passes around the net that almost no one else on the team has. i believe he's capable of playing a beautiful flowing effective form of grindy forecheck possession hockey.

however the grindy type players on NYR do not have the skill or iq to make themselves available naturally so Kakko's process slows down, he has to hold it and wait.

I see a player who desperately wants to play with more anticipation in the O zone, more flow. it can look dawdly when possession is lost without a shot but it can be very effective.

His physical flaw is skating but his games flaw is that he doesn't adapt well. He plays his game regardless of situation. I still see a player who could score 75 points in the right situation.

 

[BLOCKERSAVE]

it would be so stupid to trade kakko for veleno.

kakko has the ability to make passes around the net that almost no one else on the team has. i believe he's capable of playing a beautiful flowing effective form of grindy forecheck possession hockey.

however the grindy type players on NYR do not have the skill or iq to make themselves available naturally so Kakko's process slows down, he has to hold it and wait.

I see a player who desperately wants to play with more anticipation in the O zone, more flow. it can look dawdly when possession is lost without a shot but it can be very effective.

His physical flaw is skating but his games flaw is that he doesn't adapt well. He plays his game regardless of situation. I still see a player who could score 75 points in the right situation.

I agree, many times in the last couple of years his passes to his line mates should be goals. Either they fumble the pass or can't handle it. Kokko passes are underrated.

 

[Leonardo87]

So there are two more playoffs spots available in the east M3 and WC2, Rangers could face either Philly, Islanders, Detroit, Washington, or even Pittsburgh.

 

[Vitto79]

I’ve said all year Goodrow is better on the wing
Brodz by default 4th line C
Other options are rough unless they think Edstrom can handle it

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So there are two more playoffs spots available in the east M3 and WC2, Rangers could face either Philly, Islanders, Detroit, Washington, or even Pittsburgh.

With the way Philly and Washington are going right now the Isles will take the 3rd Metro spot and the Rangers will face off vs PHI/WSH/PITT

Penguins have a tough road ahead of them (they can afford to lose 1, maybe 2 games) but the teams ahead of them are doing a hell of a job keeping them in it.

They're the team I want to face the least. Not because they're some powerhouse (they aren't) but they're going to get supplemental help like they did the last time the Rangers faced them.

I'd love to face Detroit but they're dead IMO.

 

[Leonardo87]

With the way Philly and Washington are going right now the Isles will take the 3rd Metro spot and the Rangers will face off vs PHI/WSH/PITT

Penguins have a tough road ahead of them (they can afford to lose 1, maybe 2 games) but the teams ahead of them are doing a hell of a job keeping them in it.

They're the team I want to face the least. Not because they're some powerhouse (they aren't) but they're going to get supplemental help like they did the last time the Rangers faced them.

I'd love to face Detroit but they're dead IMO.

It’s an interesting race with a bunch of teams in the hunt. West is pretty much set with who’s getting in, just a matter of positioning at this point.

 

[pld459666]

If all Graf becomes is another Jimmy Vesey, thats a great signing of a free asset.

Would have been nice here, but he'd be buried behind Kakko and Lafreniere with absolutely zero PP time in his foreseeable future, worse when Gabe joins the NHL.

The idea that he didn't want to "work" for his opportunities is silly and lazy

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If all Graf becomes is another Jimmy Vesey, thats a great signing of a free asset.

Would have been nice here, but he'd be buried behind Kakko and Lafreniere with absolutely zero PP time in his foreseeable future, worse when Gabe joins the NHL.

The idea that he didn't want to "work" for his opportunities is silly and lazy

Yeah he's put in the work to get himself an NHL contract after not even being a blip on the radar.

Going to San Jose was the smartest business decision he could have made. I applaud him for it.

 

[HolyHagelin]

To revisit the “value of stats” portion of the convo one more time…

I have spent years in sales and until recently was the director of sales for a 10-state home improvement company. Sales is as numbers driven as businesses get.

We have numbers for everything. How often do you pitch? How often do you sell? What is your average margin? What is the average return per lead run?

Of course in sales we say that the board is the truth, and over time luck averages out, and everyone performs to their level. Yet…

Not every territory is the same. A guy in Upper Marlboro has a better shot at a deal than a guy in Potomac (both in MD, the home territory for my last co). Roof leads close at a higher % than door leads, and for a lot more money.

Not only that, there are demographics we know will be harder to close. Nice old widow lady with her son at the meeting? That’s a layup. Vicious middle aged dragon lady that refuses fo have her husband there to eiscuss options? Good f***ing luck.

So when we look at the board and see numbers, we might think one particular guy is the best, until we realize that geographically and product wise he is getting the easy path, and some other guys are doing the hard ones.

Not only that but office culture does matter, and the guy who is only OK but always brings breakfast burritos to the sales meeting and helps guys by getting drone footage for them and always helps the new guys get their paperwork right, that guy is a valuable asset.

If you’ve made it this far i am tying back to hockey now, because the point is *someone* has to take the harder, less glamorous assignments. Your whole team won’t have a positive corsi, so someone has to be out there when the other team is hanging on to the puck.

The key, then, is to find people that fit your culture (or shape it!), to find people willing to take the “shit leads,” to find people willing to thrive despite you intentionally making their job harder by giving them the tough assignements.

The value is in more than just the raw numbers. The guys in the middle and at the bottom form a foundation for the guys at the top to do their thing.

 

[noncents]

To revisit the “value of stats” portion of the convo one more time…

I have spent years in sales and until recently was the director of sales for a 10-state home improvement company. Sales is as numbers driven as businesses get.

We have numbers for everything. How often do you pitch? How often do you sell? What is your average margin? What is the average return per lead run?

Of course in sales we say that the board is the truth, and over time luck averages out, and everyone performs to their level. Yet…

Not every territory is the same. A guy in Upper Marlboro has a better shot at a deal than a guy in Potomac (both in MD, the home territory for my last co). Roof leads close at a higher % than door leads, and for a lot more money.

Not only that, there are demographics we know will be harder to close. Nice old widow lady with her son at the meeting? That’s a layup. Vicious middle aged dragon lady that refuses fo have her husband there to eiscuss options? Good f***ing luck.

So when we look at the board and see numbers, we might think one particular guy is the best, until we realize that geographically and product wise he is getting the easy path, and some other guys are doing the hard ones.

Not only that but office culture does matter, and the guy who is only OK but always brings breakfast burritos to the sales meeting and helps guys by getting drone footage for them and always helps the new guys get their paperwork right, that guy is a valuable asset.

If you’ve made it this far i am tying back to hockey now, because the point is *someone* has to take the harder, less glamorous assignments. Your whole team won’t have a positive corsi, so someone has to be out there when the other team is hanging on to the puck.

The key, then, is to find people that fit your culture (or shape it!), to find people willing to take the “shit leads,” to find people willing to thrive despite you intentionally making their job harder by giving them the tough assignements.

The value is in more than just the raw numbers. The guys in the middle and at the bottom form a foundation for the guys at the top to do their thing.

i appreciate the thought put into this post but i'm not sure the premise is sound.

There is a difference between the glamour of a role and excellent production in that role.

Take the guy in your office who brings breakfast burritos to the sales meetings and helps newbies keep their TPS report cover sheets in line. he's just ok at his sales job, but the other shit he does still makes him valuable. that's goodrow.

you seem to be laboring under the assumption that only guys who are just ok at the work will go the extra mile with burritos and paperwork - this is what i disagree with. There are guys who kill it at sales and also do all the little things right that you don't see. Instead of getting chipotle, he knows the proper mexican shack where the burritos are thrice as good.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that a guy being bad at his job is by design or necessary, even if the intangibles and effort are superb. The excellent guy exists. its the job of a good general manager to find him.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

To revisit the “value of stats” portion of the convo one more time…

I have spent years in sales and until recently was the director of sales for a 10-state home improvement company. Sales is as numbers driven as businesses get.

We have numbers for everything. How often do you pitch? How often do you sell? What is your average margin? What is the average return per lead run?

Of course in sales we say that the board is the truth, and over time luck averages out, and everyone performs to their level. Yet…

Not every territory is the same. A guy in Upper Marlboro has a better shot at a deal than a guy in Potomac (both in MD, the home territory for my last co). Roof leads close at a higher % than door leads, and for a lot more money.

Not only that, there are demographics we know will be harder to close. Nice old widow lady with her son at the meeting? That’s a layup. Vicious middle aged dragon lady that refuses fo have her husband there to eiscuss options? Good f***ing luck.

So when we look at the board and see numbers, we might think one particular guy is the best, until we realize that geographically and product wise he is getting the easy path, and some other guys are doing the hard ones.

Not only that but office culture does matter, and the guy who is only OK but always brings breakfast burritos to the sales meeting and helps guys by getting drone footage for them and always helps the new guys get their paperwork right, that guy is a valuable asset.

If you’ve made it this far i am tying back to hockey now, because the point is *someone* has to take the harder, less glamorous assignments. Your whole team won’t have a positive corsi, so someone has to be out there when the other team is hanging on to the puck.

The key, then, is to find people that fit your culture (or shape it!), to find people willing to take the “shit leads,” to find people willing to thrive despite you intentionally making their job harder by giving them the tough assignements.

The value is in more than just the raw numbers. The guys in the middle and at the bottom form a foundation for the guys at the top to do their thing.

Thats the thing, this is taken into consideration.

The guys who draw those assignments on this team are NOT the only ones who do so in the league. Every team has a group of players who play those roles. Some of our guys have heavily underperformed when being compared to players in those roles across the league.

I think the biggest complaints here really revolve around some of the different players (the ones eating significant minutes.) Gonna stick with your analogy because its fun, but we have several players basically being treated like they're crushing it with the Upper Marlboro crew selling to even said dragon lady when they're actually producing lower end Potomac level numbers and blowing deals with both tough sells and lay up clients.

Like Barclay Goodrow, even fresh off of his 2 goal game, objectively sucks. His role is as unglamorous as they come but even in comparison to other guys who play his role across the league, he has drastically under performed.

He isn't as big a problem for this team as Ryan Lindgren or Jacob Trouba (or honestly, Zibanejad AND Kreider.)

You can live with a shitty low end if you minimize their usage (thats another conversation entirely, Goodrow plays way too much) but if your top guys are basically performing like lower end guys... you're going to be in trouble.

I'm less worried about the bromance in the playoffs (at least Kreider) than I am the dynamic defensive duo. Hard minutes or not, those guys have been really bad this year and one or the other will be on the ice for basically 70+% of the game.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I’m ambivalent what we do with Kakko this offseason not even considering his scoring stats. On one hand he’s a really good 3RW that can play up and still has upside with more responsibility imo. on the other do we want to invest 3.5 mil into his position with some others on the horizon. With this cup window open for the foreseeable future, I’m inclined to hang onto him for a while longer at something like 3.2 x 2. It doesn’t seem his trade value is very robust at the moment.

 

[HolyHagelin]

i appreciate the thought put into this post but i'm not sure the premise is sound.

There is a difference between the glamour of a role and excellent production in that role.

Take the guy in your office who brings breakfast burritos to the sales meetings and helps newbies keep their TPS report cover sheets in line. he's just ok at his sales job, but the other shit he does still makes him valuable. that's goodrow.

you seem to be laboring under the assumption that only guys who are just ok at the work will go the extra mile with burritos and paperwork - this is what i disagree with. There are guys who kill it at sales and also do all the little things right that you don't see. Instead of getting chipotle, he knows the proper mexican shack where the burritos are thrice as good.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that a guy being bad at his job is by design or necessary, even if the intangibles and effort are superb. The excellent guy exists. its the job of a good general manager to find him.

Thats the thing, this is taken into consideration.

The guys who draw those assignments on this team are NOT the only ones who do so in the league. Every team has a group of players who play those roles. Some of our guys have heavily underperformed when being compared to players in those roles across the league.

I think the biggest complaints here really revolve around some of the different players (the ones eating significant minutes.) Gonna stick with your analogy because its fun, but we have several players basically being treated like they're crushing it with the Upper Marlboro crew selling to even said dragon lady when they're actually producing lower end Potomac level numbers and blowing deals with both tough sells and lay up clients.

Like Barclay Goodrow, even fresh off of his 2 goal game, objectively sucks. His role is as unglamorous as they come but even in comparison to other guys who play his role across the league, he has drastically under performed.

He isn't as big a problem for this team as Ryan Lindgren or Jacob Trouba (or honestly, Zibanejad AND Kreider.)

You can live with a shitty low end if you minimize their usage (thats another conversation entirely, Goodrow plays way too much) but if your top guys are basically performing like lower end guys... you're going to be in trouble.

I'm less worried about the bromance in the playoffs (at least Kreider) than I am the dynamic defensive duo. Hard minutes or not, those guys have been really bad this year and one or the other will be on the ice for basically 70+% of the game.

Both of you make some good points. However you are right when you say troubs and goody bring more than their stats. Leadership within an organization matters, and you need leaders at every level.

In my field, the top guys also tend to be the most “me first” guys. I have been in organizatiosn that were all “me first” high end producers, it works for a little while the it all comes to shit due to sniping, undermining, backbiting, etc. and that is in a business where guys only have to see each other at the weekly meetings.

The value of physicality in hockey never hits the spreadsheet. The value of “f*** it, we are all fighting” likewise also doesn’t hit the numbers.

Guys like trouba and goody continue to be valued league wide because those ingredients are important for team success, and NHL history shows most scorers do not bring them.

You’ve got to have it all.

And, as i said in another thead, Trouba leads the team in minutes since he has been here (when healthy), and be plays defense, and the team has consistently been t10 at defense, so how bad is he really?

 

[Kendo]

I’ve said all year Goodrow is better on the wing
Brodz by default 4th line C
Other options are rough unless they think Edstrom can handle it

Edstrom should be groomed for 4C next season. Even if he bounces between HFD and NYR, even if he's put in all 3 F positions. I really think he has potential to be a 4C and PK monster in the league. He does so many subtle things even if he'll never have big production. He plays hard, but he's not just some bruising oaf out there. To me, he's part of the solution going forward.

To revisit the “value of stats” portion of the convo one more time…

The value is in more than just the raw numbers. The guys in the middle and at the bottom form a foundation for the guys at the top to do their thing.

So many times I've seen new management come in, fire that guy, and then say "New rule: No breakfast burritos at the morning meetings. It's a waste of time and resources." They can boast "efficiency" to the board, but then overall productivity suffers when you're star closers have to take the worse leads. The business version of making Panarin PK.

 

[HolyHagelin]

Edstrom should be groomed for 4C next season. Even if he bounces between HFD and NYR, even if he's put in all 3 F positions. I really think he has potential to be a 4C and PK monster in the league. He does so many subtle things even if he'll never have big production. He plays hard, but he's not just some bruising oaf out there. To me, he's part of the solution going forward.


So many times I've seen new management come in, fire that guy, and then say "New rule: No breakfast burritos at the morning meetings. It's a waste of time and resources." They can boast "efficiency" to the board, but then overall productivity suffers when you're star closers have to take the worse leads. The business version of making Panarin PK.

Yes! Perfect analogy.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I love how people get on Kreider. The guy has 37 goals and 32 assists, best net front guy in the game, very good PKer, and always scores important goals. Every single team in the league would love to have this guy and his contract on their team. People need to get off his jock.

 

[Bruner4329]

I love how people get on Kreider. The guy has 37 goals and 32 assists, best net front guy in the game, very good PKer, and always scores important goals. Every single team in the league would love to have this guy and his contract on their team. People need to get off his jock.

Been saying the same thing here since posters wanted him traded just before he signed his contract. At the time posters predicted we paid too much and would not be seeing any value in the later years. Well so far he has 125 goals the last 3 years not counting the playoffs. And to your point he kills penalties. Yes he gets quite a few PP goals but isn't that the goal no pun intended. 16 this year out of 37.

People expect him or want to him to be something he isn't. What they fail to remember is how many great and successful players were similar in the past. I know some people may jump on this but has he not been as good as Adam Graves for his career and I loved Graves as a player? Very similar in the sense Graves got a lot of PP goals and goals in front, killed penalties etc. yes Graves won a cup but you look closely very similar.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Been saying the same thing here since posters wanted him traded just before he signed his contract. At the time posters predicted we paid too much and would not be seeing any value in the later years. Well so far he has 125 goals the last 3 years not counting the playoffs. And to your point he kills penalties. Yes he gets quite a few PP goals but isn't that the goal no pun intended. 16 this year out of 37.

People expect him or want to him to be something he isn't. What they fail to remember is how many great and successful players were similar in the past. I know some people may jump on this but has he not been as good as Adam Graves for his career and I loved Graves as a player? Very similar in the sense Graves got a lot of PP goals and goals in front, killed penalties etc. yes Graves won a cup but you look closely very similar.

This is exactly it. He is who he is and produces in important situations. He has earned every penny of that contract. On pace for close to 75 points this year.

 

[Savant]

I’m ambivalent what we do with Kakko this offseason not even considering his scoring stats. On one hand he’s a really good 3RW that can play up and still has upside with more responsibility imo. on the other do we want to invest 3.5 mil into his position with some others on the horizon. With this cup window open for the foreseeable future, I’m inclined to hang onto him for a while longer at something like 3.2 x 2. It doesn’t seem his trade value is very robust at the moment.

I mean, what is the move for Kakko even if you can trade him? Change of scenery RFA defenseman with draft pedigree? I think what the Rangers do for him is largely dependent on what the offers are

Kakko for Brannstrom? Broberg? Nils Lundkvist?

That’s basically what I think they’d be looking at

 

[LiveLongandProspal]