Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[Machinehead]

I get the impetus to add even if you go with the analytics and don't think the team is particularly good. They're not making any changes right now to the biggest offenders in regard to analytics. Might as well try your best with what you have.

That being said, if the moves do nothing for us, I'd rather stand pat and not waste assets. Vatrano and Henrique, at best, don't improve the team, and arguably make the team worse.

Vatrano was a 5v5 disaster next to Kreider and Zibanejad in his first stint. Henrique would be replacing Brodzinski on a line that has good chemistry.

 

[McRanger92]

I get the impetus to add even if you go with the analytics and don't think the team is particularly good. They're not making any changes right now to the biggest offenders in regard to analytics. Might as well try your best with what you have.

That being said, if the moves do nothing for us, I'd rather stand pat and not waste assets. Vatrano and Henrique, at best, don't improve the team, and arguably make the team worse.

Vatrano was a 5v5 disaster next to Kreider and Zibanejad in his first stint. Henrique would be replacing Brodzinski on a line that has good chemistry.

Id be ok with Vatrano but Henrique is a stiff and a losing player. They also cant stand pat with Igor showing his elite form and Panarin having the best season of his career. Its not an option if Drury wants to keep his job.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I don't think that moves the needle nearly enough. Firsts are prize assets. They are chances to get a Perrault, a Miller, a Chytil. We have shown we have a decent track record of finding good prospects in the latter part of the first.

We can't be throwing those assets away to dump Goodrow. Henrique and Vatrano are just not needle-movers. They are also both complete rentals.

Hard pass.

Firsts, in our range, are good assets. I agree. Maybe not prized, but they are good assets.

However, we are in our window. So... all bets are off. You trade what you need to trade if the right deal comes up. Vatrano and Henrique are not that deal but getting rid of a bad contract is a big positive.

Look for a better deal. If the first round pick needs to be in play, you make the deal. It is really that simple. I know some of you love to operate in theory, which is fine. But at some point theory needs to translate into reality and these theories I keep seeing crumble under their own weight.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I don't think that moves the needle nearly enough. Firsts are prize assets. They are chances to get a Perrault, a Miller, a Chytil. We have shown we have a decent track record of finding good prospects in the latter part of the first.

We can't be throwing those assets away to dump Goodrow. Henrique and Vatrano are just not needle-movers. They are also both complete rentals.

Hard pass.

Vatrano has another year on his contract doesnt he?

Regardless of the perceived fit, i just dont like the bundle idea with Ana. Just because they have two guys who play positions of need, doesnt mean you cant look elsewhere for much better value. I think its lazy.

Verbeek isnt an idiot either and will want a haul for a rebuilding club - starting with a first or top prospect off the bat. Because the deal for these two is compounded since Vatrano has that extra year of term and Drury will need him to retain a sizeable amount of cap.

When Drury originally landed Vatrano for a 4th rounder, thats the type of move you want to make. You dont give up major assets and find a way to upgrade the depth of the team for the run.

 

[McRanger92]

Firsts, in our range, are good assets. I agree. Maybe not prized, but they are good assets.

However, we are in our window. So... all bets are off. You trade what you need to trade if the right deal comes up. Vatrano and Henrique are not that deal but getting rid of a bad contract is a big positive.

Look for a better deal. If the first round pick needs to be in play, you make the deal. It is really that simple. I know some of you love to operate in theory, which is fine. But at some point theory needs to translate into reality and these theories I keep seeing crumble under their own weight.

A great American once said "Theory can only take you so far".

 

[Gardner McKay]

A great American once said "Theory can only take you so far".

I had to look that up lol. I've yet to see the movie. Maybe this weekend if the kids cooperate.

 

[mas0764]

I think you just treat that model like its infallible

I've literally never said that.

It's informative. Way better than people's eye tests.

and then spam the thread telling us we have no chance and to stop talking about "overpaying for rentals" like anyone is advocating that. Improve the team at the deadline, every playoff team does it. It's not going to hurt you.

We don't have "no chance," but we continue to have a chance that is not worth spending a first (or other long term assets) on trying to bolster.

Unless you are getting a young long term piece back.

Spending firsts or long term assets on rentals definitely does hurt you and is only worth it when you win the Cup. Which chances say we probably won't. We have better chances to win the Cup taking other approaches.

 

[McRanger92]

I had to look that up lol. I've yet to see the movie. Maybe this weekend if the kids cooperate.

Highly recommend it

 

[mas0764]

Firsts, in our range, are good assets. I agree. Maybe not prized, but they are good assets.

However, we are in our window. So... all bets are off. You trade what you need to trade if the right deal comes up. Vatrano and Henrique are not that deal but getting rid of a bad contract is a big positive.

Look for a better deal. If the first round pick needs to be in play, you make the deal. It is really that simple. I know some of you love to operate in theory, which is fine. But at some point theory needs to translate into reality and these theories I keep seeing crumble under their own weight.

How has the theory that it's better to make longer term moves crumbled under it's own weight?

The theory that expensive renting is valuable continues to be debunked by every metric.

The only fall back is that "well this is what contending teams do and you will lose the locker room if you don't rent." It's just a cliche. There is no evidence that expensive renting is a good thing.

 

[McRanger92]

I've literally never said that.

It's informative. Way better than people's eye tests.



We don't have "no chance," but we continue to have a chance that is not worth spending a first (or other long term assets) on trying to bolster.

Unless you are getting a young long term piece back.

Spending firsts or long term assets on rentals definitely does hurt you and is only worth it when you win the Cup. Which chances say we probably won't. We have better chances to win the Cup taking other approaches.

Well you defend this model like its infallible. For years you have cited Dom's checklist.

Winning the Cup this year or next is far more likely than your preferred strategy of fleecing Vancouver for Elias Pettersson. One is unlikely and the other is impossible.

 

[Gardner McKay]

How has the theory that it's better to make longer term moves crumbled under it's own weight?

The theory that expensive renting is valuable continues to be debunked by every metric.

The only fall back is that "well this is what contending teams do and you will lose the locker room if you don't rent." It's just a cliche. There is no evidence that expensive renting is a good thing.

Where have I suggested renting? Where. Where did I say lets ship out our first for a rental?

I didn't. You are putting words into my mouth. I said if the right deal comes along, you trade the first no questions asked. What kind of deal is that? If we could get Boone Jenner who, is not worth anywhere near what CLB fans are expecting for him, but would fit in nicely. If we could get him for a 1st + Jones/Sykora or something, I'd be all over that. He has multiple years left at a very manageable cap hit. He is not a rental, he is a guy that would be here for multiple runs.

I've said I'd rather them try to find a deal like 2022 where they got Vatrano for a 4th and Motte for a 4th. Moves that don't disrupt the chemistry and give us depth. Motte wasn't great in 2023 but he was fantastic in 2022.

Your inability to realize that we are in our window doesn't change the reality that... we are in our window. It doesn't change the fact that Drury is going to make moves to try to get this team a cup.

Well you defend this model like its infallible. For years you have cited Dom's checklist.

Winning the Cup this year or next is far more likely than your preferred strategy of fleecing Vancouver for Elias Pettersson. One is unlikely and the other is impossible.

Elias Petterson is a pipe dream that allows people who otherwise would have no reason to complain, to continue to complain.

OMG. DRURY didn't get a player that we had no shot of ever getting. Horribad GM. Rangers are doomed. Life sux.

 

[mas0764]

Well you defend this model like its infallible. For years you have cited Dom's checklist.

This model like all models tend to show that expensive rentals are bad.

It's a hill I'm going to die on.

It's not infallible, it doesn't mean we can't win the Cup. It means it's not likely and a more likely approach to be successful would be the one I advocate.

Unfortunately, choosing one path means you don't get to see the other and so all we are stuck with is arguing over data.

That doesn't mean the data is infallible but I'll posit that the data shows one thing more than another.

Winning the Cup this year or next is far more likely than your preferred strategy of fleecing Vancouver for Elias Pettersson. One is unlikely and the other is impossible.

I don't think we need to fleece Vancouver for Pettersson to win a Cup. It's just a suggestion of a target and one I'd make a call about.

I do think we should be trying to chase a first pair D and 1C - at least a Trocheck level guy, but I'd prefer younger and better - in the offseason.

I do think that would be our best bet absent a rebuild/retool to win a Cup, and you are going to need assets and cap space to go big and accomplish that this offseason. If you want this rough iteration of a core to win a Cup, I think moving out salary in the form of Trouba and Goodrow, and then upgrading on Lindgren and Mika, is necessary. You can backfill the roles opened by Goodrow and Trouba's departure internally, because they both stink.

I'm not going to drain that asset pool on Vatrano and Henrique and limit my ability to take a big swing this offseason.

 

[McRanger92]

This model like all models tend to show that expensive rentals are bad.

It's a hill I'm going to die on.

It's not infallible, it doesn't mean we can't win the Cup. It means it's not likely and a more likely approach to be successful would be the one I advocate.

Unfortunately, choosing one path means you don't get to see the other and so all we are stuck with is arguing over data.

That doesn't mean the data is infallible but I'll posit that the data shows one thing more than another.



I don't think we need to fleece Vancouver for Pettersson to win a Cup. It's just a suggestion of a target and one I'd make a call about.

I do think we should be trying to chase a first pair D and 1C - at least a Trocheck level guy, but I'd prefer younger and better - in the offseason.

I do think that would be our best bet absent a rebuild/retool to win a Cup, and you are going to need assets and cap space to go big and accomplish that this offseason. If you want this rough iteration of a core to win a Cup, I think moving out salary in the form of Trouba and Goodrow, and then upgrading on Lindgren and Mika, is necessary. You can backfill the roles opened by Goodrow and Trouba's departure internally, because they both stink.

I'm not going to drain that asset pool on Vatrano and Henrique and limit my ability to take a big swing this offseason.

Ive not seen anyone arguing that this is the right move.

 

[mas0764]

Where have I suggested renting? Where. Where did I say lets ship out our first for a rental?

I didn't. You are putting words into my mouth. I said if the right deal comes along, you trade the first no questions asked. What kind of deal is that? If we could get Boone Jenner who, is not worth anywhere near what CLB fans are expecting for him, but would fit in nicely. If we could get him for a 1st + Jones/Sykora or something, I'd be all over that. He has multiple years left at a very manageable cap hit. He is not a rental, he is a guy that would be here for multiple runs.

I've said I'd rather them try to find a deal like 2022 where they got Vatrano for a 4th and Motte for a 4th. Moves that don't disrupt the chemistry and give us depth. Motte wasn't great in 2023 but he was fantastic in 2022.

Well then I don't know what theory you are saying is crumbling because we agree. No firsts for pure rentals. Make moves for thirds and fourths to shore up your worst holes and move on. You can't upgrade a first line piece that's missing at a trade deadline.

I don't necessarily agree with a first for Jenner but it would at least be easier to stomach.

Your inability to realize that we are in our window doesn't change the reality that... we are in our window. It doesn't change the fact that Drury is going to make moves to try to get this team a cup.

Drury is going to make mistakes like he has many times already. Oh I know it. He will harm our future ability to win Cups without meaningfully changing our chances for this season, would be my guess.

 

[mas0764]

Ive not seen anyone arguing that this is the right move.

I'm not going to drain that asset pool on any rentals or other mediocre players who don't move the needle.

If Eberle was 27 and had some term he would be worth it, perhaps.

 

[McRanger92]

I'm not going to drain that asset pool on any rentals or other mediocre players who don't move the needle.

If Eberle was 27 and had some term he would be worth it, perhaps.

Thats fine but you paint with a very wide brush when it comes to people who actually want to make the roster better. The odds of any of our picks ever becoming as good as even this version of Eberle, for example, is miniscule. We love Perrault but he is probably 2 years from even playing an NHL game, im not letting that hinder me from trading a draft pick at the peak of our window.

 

[mas0764]

Thats fine but you paint with a very wide brush when it comes to people who actually want to make the roster better.

The overwhelming evidence says if your team is seriously flawed come the deadline, it can't be fixed. The majority of teams who win Cups aren't out there plugging one or multiple top 6 holes at the deadline trying to keep up with the Joneses.

It's a delusion to say that the team can be made better with these moves. Acquiring Tarasenko and Kane did not make us better last year. I'm sorry if you feel that's a "wide brush," but we have to stop getting caught up in these kind of moves being net positives.

Ironically Vatrano's acquisition two years ago is probably the ideal of what we should be going for. A guy who can play middle six minutes even with the warts he has, and come up with a timely impact moment here or there, for a middle round pick.

The Copps and Tarasenkos are just too much and at the end of the day, we were still brushed aside by Tampa, a real complete team.

We all want to win a Cup. Keep that first, then package it with another first and a prospect, and go get a guy who is going to be REALLY good for a REALLY long time and has a whole offseason/regular season to get integrated here. Way better value.

It just means you have to bite the bullet on this year. It doesn't mean throw in the towel. Go to war with what you have. Realize and accept your chances this year are not meaningfully impacted and that to get to your end goal of winning a Cup, you have to spend your assets more smartly.

The odds of any of our picks ever becoming as good as even this version of Eberle, for example, is miniscule. We love Perrault but he is probably 2 years from even playing an NHL game, im not letting that hinder me from trading a draft pick at the peak of our window.

What Perrault is likely to be in 2 years is way better than 6 weeks and a playoff round or two of, say, Eberle. If you could get Eberle for a second and a minor prospect that's different, but we are fresh out of seconds because we keep frittering them away. Because we keep being told every year that this is what we HAVE TO DO this year.

It's all a lie. People just want to throw away these assets every year because they don't understand how to build a team the right way.

 

[NYR Viper]

If they’re trading a 1st, go get Novak and re-sign him to a 4-5 year deal at reasonable money. $4m per season.

Then get Philly to retain on Atkinson, $3.5m cap hit

 

[Kovalev27]

Imagine if kakko was the horse he was supposed to be and you’d have him and laf holding down those two top lines? We’d be Cup favorites.

Kakko back on the top line on paper just looks so good. Instead of having to shop the scrap heap for a rental RW1

We need a 3C and we need a LD1. That’s what we really need.

 

[mas0764]

Imagine if kakko was the horse he was supposed to be and you’d have him and laf holding down those two top lines? We’d be Cup favorites.

Kakko back on the top line on paper just looks so good. Instead of having to shop the scrap heap for a rental RW1

We need a 3C and we need a LD1. That’s what we really need.

3C can be acquired for cheaper than a first, and a 1D probably has to wait till the offseason.

 

[McRanger92]

Looking at Seattle's roster, is Justin Schultz still any good? Won multiple Cups with PIT and played under Laviolette for a couple years in Washington. 3mil cap hit and a pending UFA. Add him to the list of Kraken guys I like with Eberle, Gourde & Wennberg

 

[Levitate]

I mean i don’t think Miller is an ideal 1LD by any means but pairing him with Fox would mean he doesn’t have to be and then they could focus on a 2nd pair or even bottom pair guy

The big issue is not acknowledging that lindgren is cooked. Getting a 1LD doesn’t matter if the coaches are going to insist on running him out there with Fox (or if Fox is insisting on having him as a partner)

This team needs to get past that. Honestly I think this teams odds to win go up a bit if they just make some lineup changes staring them in the face but they’re far too hooked on “past synergy” and hoping shit will just magically work out again

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I mean i don’t think Miller is an ideal 1LD by any means but pairing him with Fox would mean he doesn’t have to be and then they could focus on a 2nd pair or even bottom pair guy

The big issue is not acknowledging that lindgren is cooked. Getting a 1LD doesn’t matter if the coaches are going to insist on running him out there with Fox (or if Fox is insisting on having him as a partner)

This team needs to get past that. Honestly I think this teams odds to win go up a bit if they just make some lineup changes staring them in the face but they’re far too hooked on “past synergy” and hoping shit will just magically work out again

Yup.

 

[McRanger92]

I mean i don’t think Miller is an ideal 1LD by any means but pairing him with Fox would mean he doesn’t have to be and then they could focus on a 2nd pair or even bottom pair guy

The big issue is not acknowledging that lindgren is cooked. Getting a 1LD doesn’t matter if the coaches are going to insist on running him out there with Fox (or if Fox is insisting on having him as a partner)

This team needs to get past that. Honestly I think this teams odds to win go up a bit if they just make some lineup changes staring them in the face but they’re far too hooked on “past synergy” and hoping shit will just magically work out again

Clearly the coaching staff knows that Miller-Fox as a pair is more effective offensively, because Lavi goes to it when we need a goal. The hesitance to switch the D pairs imo comes from A. Not wanting to play Trouba and Lindgren together because yikes and B. Fox's preference is to play with Lindgren. Probably a combo of both and a sprinkle of C. Schneider and Gus have been consistent as a pair all year (despite Gus being average since the first month of the season).

Brooks wrote today that Kakko succeeding in the top 6 could lead the the Rangers focusing more on 3C and D. I havent seen a single rumor from a credible source about the Rangers being interested in defense, so I hope Drury is cognizant of it and just operating under the fog of war while all the Western contenders and Tampa haggle over Tanev and Hanifin. I'd love for him to swoop in and add a top 4 guy, because I wouldnt see it as a rental. The D needs a revamp this summer, the extent of which will be determined by how we look in the playoffs.

 

[aufheben]

3C can be acquired for cheaper than a first, and a 1D probably has to wait till the offseason.

We just need a defenseman that doesn’t suck to play with Fox. But the front office probably doesn’t even see the defense core as an issue.