That’s why depending on goaltending for success carries the most volatility for any team (see: Canadiens, Montreal), thanks to how little we know about accurately projecting the position. A strong roster of skaters is a much safer bet when it comes to building a team, and that is something the Rangers don’t currently possess. They’re one of five teams without an elite player as defined by this model.
Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider are the closest at the moment, but at ages 25 and 27 what you see now is likely what you get. Both players are capable first-liners who can score 50-60 points, but not much more barring an unexpected breakout. They aren’t players that would be anchoring a top line on a contending team.
For Zibanejad, there are some concerns under the surface too. His 54-point pace over the last two seasons is solid, but nothing to write home about for a player at the top of the lineup, especially since a lot of it was by way of the power play. At 5-on-5 last season, his 1.35 points per 60 ranked 11th on the team, somehow behind an exiled David Desharnais. Zibanejad did improve his two-way game too (despite what his plus-minus indicates) with one of the league’s best relative Corsi percentages last season, but it’s awfully curious that his improvement came once he was on a line with Kreider, who has earned a reputation for driving play (though it’s worth noting Kredier’s ability to exit and enter the zone with control dipped last season).
Pavel Buchnevich rounds out the top line and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his second full season now that he no longer has permanent residency in the doghouse. But unless he unleashes a monster season, the Rangers will have one of the weakest top lines in the league. If hockey is a strong link game, this team is in trouble up front.
The Rangers’ depth also looks rather thin. There’s a lot to be desired, and the team has several potential
lineup configurations, meaning much is in flux.
The second line, as currently constructed, looks to be one of the worst in the league thanks to forwards that aren’t very strong at possessing the puck at 5-on-5. Both Kevin Hayes and Ryan Spooner can rack up points, but it comes at a cost in their own end, while Jimmy Vesey hasn’t done much of anything in his short NHL career so far to suggest he’s more than a dime-a-dozen fourth liner.
That threesome would get eaten alive by other second lines and likely works better as a sheltered scoring line, but that may not be possible. The entire bottom six will need sheltering considering a number of holes are being filled by young players. There’s only so much sheltering a coach can do – someone is going to have to be fed to the wolves, leaving the team with the potential for a lot of future matchup woes.
The third line actually looks decent enough that it should be the team’s second unit, but it’s unlikely the team wants to expose 2017 first-round pick Filip Chytil to the difficulties of playing further up the lineup just yet. He still needs to adjust to the NHL game and will need support. That’ll likely come by way of help from his wingers, with veterans Vladislav Namestnikov and Mats Zuccarello, two second-line calibre players, slated to play by his side. Those two should be able to elevate the line’s play and Chytil’s game, but his numbers to date suggest he has a lot of work to do to adapt to the big leagues.
The fourth line features three players who can actually skate – unless Cody McLeod factors in – though none are projected to provide much value and it’s unlikely they get exposed to tough usage with two rookies slotted in. With rookies Chytil, Lias Andersson and Michael Lindqvist likely to make the team, it’s worth noting that first-year players are among the toughest projections to pin down. They can easily surprise, and that is something that could make the Rangers more competitive. But their trio’s numbers outside the NHL suggest that’s less likely compared to other high-profile rookies.
The forwards aren’t great by any means, but New York’s defence is a much bigger problem, especially after the team dealt Ryan McDonagh at last year’s trade deadline. Shattenkirk is the top guy and he’ll need a huge bounce-back season after a disastrous first one with the Rangers. Injuries played a big part in his numbers falling across the board at 5-on-5 (he posted some of the worst point totals and shot shares of his career), so a rebound isn’t exactly out of the question, but his fall is still alarming. His foot speed has been a big question mark the past few seasons as the league has become faster, and the fact he has one of the league’s worst projected penalty differentials for the upcoming season at minus-18 is also a bad sign. The last two seasons have been especially bad for Shattenkirk.
It doesn’t help that his play with the puck took a big hit last year, too. Shattenkirk was much less effective at exiting the defensive zone, entering the offensive zone and creating while in there according to data collected by Corey Sznajder. Meanwhile, he was elite in all three regards in 2016-17, as should be expected from a premier puck-mover. Getting back to that level will be critical to Shattenkirk having success again.
Even if he rediscovers his game, the big question with him is whether he can succeed as “The Guy” back there. In St. Louis, he did well in the past as the second fiddle behind Alex Pietrangelo, but it remains to be seen whether he can continue at that level while being counted on to shut down the opponent’s best players – if that’s his job next season. This upcoming year might be telling if he’s able to, or if he is of the same ilk as Mike Green. If you’ve seen how Detroit’s defence operates lately, you’ll know the latter is far from an ideal scenario.
There aren’t many other options for the Rangers, though. It makes sense to keep Shattenkirk away from the tough minutes to leverage his offensive capabilities to his full potential (like Brent Burns in San Jose, who can depend on Marc-Edouard Vlasic to do the heavy lifting), but that might not be possible in New York. The Rangers could call on Marc Staal to fill that void, but his reputation far exceeds his abilities at this point of his career. Brady Skjei is fine, but I’m not sure the team trusts him more than Shattenkirk. Brendan Smith was sent to the AHL last year and needs sheltering – he’s best suited for the third pair. Fredrik Claesson couldn’t handle a spot next to Erik Karlsson in Ottawa. And Neal Pionk got caved in on the shot clock regularly at the end of last season when an injury-riddled Rangers team forced him to be tasked with tough usage. His 40 per cent Corsi was last on the Rangers and near the bottom of the league. The far from illustrious group is unlikely to be able to handle the best other teams throw at them.
If they can’t, good luck next season. Like Detroit and Vancouver, a weak defence group will likely be this team’s biggest hindrance heading into next season – and is the main reason New York likely won’t accomplish much in the standings in 2018-19. A sparse forward group and lack of star power across the lineup doesn’t help, either.
However, like other weak teams, the Rangers struggling to compete next season should be a blessing in the long run. This team is very far from contention as it’s currently constructed, and bottoming out is the fastest way to get back to the top of the league.
