Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part VII: Now with less frenzy!

[haveandare]

That was 2008. And then Marian Hossa for a million years in 2009 as well. Campbell came after having missed the playoffs for 8 of 9 previous seasons... then they missed again before signing Hossa.

So yes, they got those two draft picks in Kane and Toews to build around. They also got crazy lucky that, even though their 3rd overall D selection busted, they found an HOF defenseman in the 2nd round. And they bolstered their rebuild with free agent signings and trades.

The Blackhawks are very instructive on the need to utilize all channels of player acquisition. The thing that really turned the team around wasn’t the draft picks. It was Bill Wirtz’s death, followed by his son’s willingness to put money into the team. Even with Kane, Toews and Keith in the draft, they never win the Cups if their ownership continued to refuse to spend on the roster.

The Blackhawks literally had two good teams worth of players when they won the first time, then they moved a handful of them and still had a championship team. I think a lot of what happened with them was great draft luck and I'm not sure any other team should count on that.

 

[RangerBoy]

Summer of 2008. Hawks signed Campbell. 08-09 Hawks lost in the WCF to Detroit. They signed Hossa in 2009. Won the Cup in 09-10.

 

[silverfish]

Summer of 2019. Rangers sign Karlsson. 19-20 Rangers lose in the ECF to Boston. They sign Taylor Hall in 2020. Win the cup in 20-21.

 

[NYR Viper]

Because it's summer, what would people prefer:

Karlsson @ $12m or Panarin @ $9m

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Because it's summer, what would people prefer:

Karlsson @ $12m or Panarin @ $9m

If Karlsson is healthy for a majority of the contract, Karlsson 11/10 times

Hell, even if he's healthy like half the time

And I really want Panarin. But Karlsson is on another level.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Because it's summer, what would people prefer:

Karlsson @ $12m or Panarin @ $9m

Both

 

[Tawnos]

They made it to the conference finals the year before signing Hossa.

I think that’s a good model to follow though. Need to draft our own Kane though.

Got my years mixed up haha. But my point definitely remains. Chicago started spending before they were competitive. They didn’t wait.

 

[Tawnos]

The Blackhawks literally had two good teams worth of players when they won the first time, then they moved a handful of them and still had a championship team. I think a lot of what happened with them was great draft luck and I'm not sure any other team should count on that.

Strangely, I think their draft luck is somewhat mixed. Their first rounders didn’t always pan out. Toews, Kane and Seabrook did. Skille, Barker and Beach not so much.

They did get several good players later on, but that’s not uncommon. So did the Rangers. Course, Tallon screwed up on some paperwork and it made them have to dump a bunch right after the first Cup.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Got my years mixed up haha. But my point definitely remains. Chicago started spending before they were competitive. They didn’t want.

They also were really smart about turning over talent to ensure that they stayed competitive.

It’s also weird how we ended up tangled in the Byfuglien and Ladd trade trees since two of the picks acquired from those trades ended up being used to select Kevin Hayes and Adam Clendening.

 

[Off Sides]

I think I'd rather see them eventually trade for what they think they need rather than sign it off the UFA market.

Use the UFA market for secondary players who may become bargains if they can find them.

 

[Idlerlee]

Apples and Oranges. This narrative is old and tired.

Doesn't change the fact that my statement is for all intents and purposes, factually correct. This is something that actually happened. Facts are not narratives. I guess the narrative you have a problem with is "Anything can happen in hockey!"?

On the other side though, is there any narrative on these forums that hasn't been discussed to death by now? No idea why you'd choose to attack the one that's positive. But I'd love to hear your elaborated opinion!

 

[Tawnos]

I think I'd rather see them eventually trade for what they think they need rather than sign it off the UFA market.

Use the UFA market for secondary players who may become bargains if they can find them.

There’s nothing fundamentally better about trades than UFA. It’s more of a perception thing.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

5 years at 6.1 for Larkin

Assume Hayes was looking for the same

 

[DutchShamrock]

Whatever you say about this board, generally there's a consensus view (obviously with some individual outliers). The fact that we cannot agree and opinions are ranging from bottom-3 to playoff bubble team is really indicative of the uncertainty coming into this season. My guess is that we will again wind up in the 7-12 lottery marsh.

This team does not have depth but if there're no prolonged injury absences then Kreider, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Zuke, Hayes and Spooner is a pretty decent top 6. Then we have Fast, Namestnikov, Vesey, Chytil and Andersson and a couple of other options to round up the forward group. Pretty much ALL of them (except for Zuke) have some room and motivation for improvement.

Same goes for defense including a return to form from Shattenkirk and Smith.

As someone already stated there's awfully a lot of certainty in the opinions of where this team will wind up. With all of the potential and question marks it's reasonable to guess it is likely won't be the worst and the best possible scenario, but somewhere in the middle. My $0.02

It's also a parity league with very little separating teams 4-27. 3 point games too. Predicting anything beyond broad placements is a fool's game.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

What ever happened with the Shumakov guy?

 

[Off Sides]

There’s nothing fundamentally better about trades than UFA. It’s more of a perception thing.

I'm not so sure.

Both market are choosing from what's available, if one market has something that fits better even if it costs assets in return, that may be the better way to go. The trade market may have better fit players on it as they would already be on a contract, one that at least matches them as there is interest in trading for the player in the first place, and the player could be younger than already in his UFA years.

I think over the years the trades for the Subban, Hall, Seguin types made more sense than that team just trying to sign a similar player off the UFA market.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm not so sure.

Both market are choosing from what's available, if one market has something that fits better even if it costs assets in return, that may be the better way to go. The trade market may have better fit players on it as they would already be on a contract, one that at least matches them as there is interest in trading for the player in the first place, and the player could be younger than already in his UFA years.

I think over the years the trades for the Subban, Hall, Seguin types made more sense than that team just trying to sign a similar player off the UFA market.

If any of those players had been UFA at the time they were acquired, it would’ve been the same. They were traded for because they weren’t available otherwise.

So you can say that they “made more sense” all you want, but they weren’t available via that channel. There’s no means of comparison.

There are as many positive examples of UFAs as there are positive examples of trade acquisitions. And there are as many negative examples of UFAs as there are negative examples of trade acquisitions.

 

[Off Sides]

If any of those players had been UFA at the time they were acquired, it would’ve been the same. They were traded for because they weren’t available otherwise.

So you can say that they “made more sense” all you want, but they weren’t available via that channel. There’s no means of comparison.

There are as many positive examples of UFAs as there are positive examples of trade acquisitions. And there are as many negative examples of UFAs as there are negative examples of trade acquisitions.

What examples? The UFAs being discussed are likely to change teams, get long term deals, 5 or more years, and have a high cap hit, say 7M at the very lowest, even adjusting for cap increase, I'm not seeing too many that have become positive examples

2016 NHL Free Agents Tracker
2015 NHL Free Agents Tracker
2014 NHL Free Agents Tracker
2013 NHL Free Agents Tracker

 

[pld459666]

I'm in agreement that we are going to be better than expected.

The losses I think we are going to feel are McDonagh and Miller.

I think we are going to get the same numbers from Namaste and Spoons that we Nash and Grabner.

Overall, not a playoff team, but I can see this team playing hard and surprising folks

 

[True Blue]

I think we are going to get the same numbers from Namaste and Spoons that we Nash and Grabner.

That is a big bet. Not sure I agree. It could be that I just do not think that much of either player. But I have a hard time picturing either of them replacing Nash's or Grabner's production.

 

[Tawnos]

That is a big bet. Not sure I agree. It could be that I just do not think that much of either player. But I have a hard time picturing either of them replacing Nash's or Grabner's production.

I think you think Nash and Grabner put up more production than they did. In terms of points, Spooner and Namestnikov are pretty similar to those guys over the last couple of years.

 

[nyr__1994]

That was 2008. And then Marian Hossa for a million years in 2009 as well. Campbell came after having missed the playoffs for 8 of 9 previous seasons... then they missed again before signing Hossa.

So yes, they got those two draft picks in Kane and Toews to build around. They also got crazy lucky that, even though their 3rd overall D selection busted, they found an HOF defenseman in the 2nd round. And they bolstered their rebuild with free agent signings and trades.

The Blackhawks are very instructive on the need to utilize all channels of player acquisition. The thing that really turned the team around wasn’t the draft picks. It was Bill Wirtz’s death, followed by his son’s willingness to put money into the team. Even with Kane, Toews and Keith in the draft, they never win the Cups if their ownership continued to refuse to spend on the roster.

The major tool that the Hawks used for their later teams were the cap circumventing contracts to Hossa and Keith. They have already wiggled their way out of the Hossa contract without getting hit with re-capture penalties. Lets wait and see what rare disease Duncan Keith comes down with in the next couple years to live out the remaining years of his contract on LTIR.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Doesn't change the fact that my statement is for all intents and purposes, factually correct. This is something that actually happened. Facts are not narratives. I guess the narrative you have a problem with is "Anything can happen in hockey!"?

On the other side though, is there any narrative on these forums that hasn't been discussed to death by now? No idea why you'd choose to attack the one that's positive. But I'd love to hear your elaborated opinion!

They still lost, and their team is and was not built the same way.

 

[True Blue]

I think you think Nash and Grabner put up more production than they did. In terms of points, Spooner and Namestnikov are pretty similar to those guys over the last couple of years.

For Namestnikov, I look at who he played with and his production level with and without. He will not be riding shotgun for such talented players next year. For Spooner, he lacks Grabner's speed and has not met a corner he does not like to avoid. Maybe he surprises (which would be great), but I have my doubts.

 

[Edge]

I'm in agreement that we are going to be better than expected.

The losses I think we are going to feel are McDonagh and Miller.

I think we are going to get the same numbers from Namaste and Spoons that we Nash and Grabner.

Overall, not a playoff team, but I can see this team playing hard and surprising folks

I more or less agree.

I think this team will have probably have close to the same offensive production, maybe a little less. But I think the defense is very suspect and Lundqvist has been up and down the last few years.

But the challenge with an optimistic approach is that it relies a lot on everyone being healthy and no one taking any steps back.

If Zibanejad, Zucc or Kreider miss any significant amount of time, it's going to reverberate throughout the lineup.

I also think this is a lineup that could be very streaky. You might have guys getting close to 20 goals, but they piled them on against certain teams and in certain games. On paper it might look better than it does from game-to-game.