Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LV

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Seriously? I can't tell if you're being facetious or not. Haha
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Why exactly is Tampa moving Sergachev? Even with a mythical offer sheet, which Tampa is more than likely to match, how is Tampa willing to move on from him? (This is not directed at you.) And, if the Rangers concoct an offer sheet that Tampa passes up, I fear what it the cap ramifications for the Rangers would be.

Take a second and look at their situation.

How do they match it? Tampa has 15 players under contract for next season and 4,5 million of capspace. Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev are RFAs. They have no RD under contract. They really only have 2 Ds signed since Coburn is one of Ds under contract. One of their top 7 highest paid forwards don't have a NMC/NTC and that is point. They can only move ANY forward making more than 1.8m per if they can get that forward to waive their deal restriction. All their Ds has NMCs/NTCs.

Free agency starts 7 days after the Stanley Cup Final ends. 7 days to match. Like they are in an extremely tough spot no matter what, even if they don't get an offer sheet. If they do get an offer sheet, they have to scramble like crazy just to be able to match that offer and they still have all kind of serious issues to work out.

I've posted here for what 15 years, I think I've mentioned the offer sheet option once before and that was for a young player that wanted out and wasn't anything like this. But regarding Sergachev -- I definitely don't think its absurd to look at the situation. Tampa litterary has THREE skaters that can be traded, without obtaining a waiver of a NTC/NMC: Coleman, Pacquette and Goodrow. Or Kilorn should be added to that group since he only has a Limited NTC, He makes 4m. They might get out OK if they can sign Serga to a short contract that takes him to UFA. But paying 7.5m oer for him in 3 weeks, that is going to be extremely hard for them.
 
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@Trxjw @Vladys Gumption

It's hard to say exactly what the Rangers would be getting out of Dunn, because a) he is actually quite sheltered in terms of matchups, zone starts, and ice-time, and b) he's played his whole career on an elite team (Trouba's stats took a hit here, Shattenkirk's stats skyrocketed when he left, etc.). His fancy stats seem similar to Fox's though.

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This basically sums it up. Dunn is a great puck mover with a nice toolbox whose underlying rates have been exceptional and are actually trending to be even better. That's why he gets a lot of love from people who put a lot of emphasis in advanced stats as well as the eye-test folks.

The sort of glaring thing about Dunn though is that year over year his role with St Louis has remained largely the same. 3rd pairing ES minutes with cushy zone starts and match ups while also getting decent PP time. Now some of that is a result of having guys ahead of him but when the opportunities arose he didn't really seize them.

So with Dunn you're hoping that the rates he has now can hold with increased opportunity and tougher competition. If he can do that, you're looking at a heck of a player -- at least from an analytics perspective. That being said, he's also one of those guys where you raise an eyebrow once you get out of the numbers and look at the on-ice product. Similar to ADA he's prone to some boneheaded plays and can be pretty reckless with the puck on his stick. He's also prone to losing his coverage in the D zone and seems to be a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to defending on the rush. Some games he does a great job breaking up plays in the neutral zone with his body or an active stick and other nights he's backing way off and is relying way too much on a weak poke check.

Far from a finished product but certainly has intriguing potential. Still like Dermott better though. ;)
 
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Take a second and look at their situation.

How do they match it? Tampa has 15 players under contract for next season and 4,5 million of capspace. Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev are RFAs. They have no RD under contract. They really only have 2 Ds signed since Coburn is one of Ds under contract. One of their top 7 highest paid forwards don't have a NMC/NTC and that is point. They can only move ANY forward making more than 1.8m per if they can get that forward to waive their deal restriction. All their Ds has NMCs/NTCs.

Free agency starts 7 days after the Stanley Cup Final ends. 7 days to match. Like they are in an extremely tough spot no matter what, even if they don't get an offer sheet. If they do get an offer sheet, they have to scramble like crazy just to be able to match that offer and they still have all kind of serious issues to work out.

I've posted here for what 15 years, I think I've mentioned the offer sheet option once before and that was for a young player that wanted out and wasn't anything like this. But regarding Sergachev -- I definitely don't think its absurd to look at the situation. Tampa litterary has THREE skaters that can be traded, without obtaining a waiver of a NTC/NMC: Coleman, Pacquette and Goodrow. Or Kilorn should be added to that group since he only has a Limited NTC, He makes 4m. They might get out OK if they can sign Serga to a short contract that takes him to UFA. But paying 7.5m oer for him in 3 weeks, that is going to be extremely hard for them.

Why are we giving up 3 picks, including an unprotected first, so we can offer sheet Sergachev to a deal worth more money than any of his comparable players got last year at a time where the cap was expected to keep rising? He's not even the type of LD this team needs.
 
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