Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LIV

[Mac n Gs]

If Arizona is cap strapped, I’d imagine that they’re going to want to hold onto their highest-valued contracts. I know he’s a good fit here, but it doesn’t make sense for them to move guys like Chychrun, Dvorak, Keller, and Schmaltz. Those guys are on the books for like $21M on the cap but only ~$15M in actual salary for 2020-21.

Their best bet is to move OEL to recoup as many assets as possible they lost in the Hall deal and someone like Demers or Oesterle. I’m sure someone would also bite on Raanta too on a 1-year deal.

 

[Mikos87]

If Arizona is cap strapped, I’d imagine that they’re going to want to hold onto their highest-valued contracts. I know he’s a good fit here, but it doesn’t make sense for them to move guys like Chychrun, Dvorak, Keller, and Schmaltz. Those guys are on the books for like $21M on the cap but only ~$15M in actual salary for 2020-21.

Their best bet is to move OEL to recoup as many assets as possible they lost in the Hall deal and someone like Demers or Oesterle. I’m sure someone would also bite on Raanta too on a 1-year deal.

Depends, their owners need a bail out, and clearing long term debt can help them with cash. It's more of an asset management, and value oriented thing than just cash. It's easier for a new GM, and ownership group to walk in and spend how they please instead of being hamstrung. I don't expect a total gut job, but I expect some movement as soon as they are comfortable in their decisions.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

To reiterate, I also think that people are underestimating what ARZ can fetch in return for all their more expensive players in a flat-cap world.

So, okay, maybe they can ship out a lot of them, but what are they realistically receiving in return? If the goal is simply to stabilize their finances in the short term, then fine – but they'll make no progress in building a team (during a period when they also don't own any meaningful draft picks).

 

[jay from jersey]

As much as I hate giving UFA dollars to bottom six guys, I would have to strongly consider Reaves because I think he's a unique player in that he brings toughness, can drop the gloves and still take a regulation shift.

I don't know how cheap he would be. And I also can't seem to figure out if Vegas extended him or not.

This is an important year for kids to grow and the team starting to at least build a foundation for its bottom 6 players. It can be tinkered with by Barron coming in, a trade for a specific guy etc. but I expect 4 of the 6 spots to be filled internally especially if fast comes back on a team friendly contract. A guy like lemmy should know his role. 4th line Lw, pest, net front presence, Pk. It’s nice to have the luxury that he can play third line in case of injury and what have you but it’s not good to keep bouncing guys around the line up and having a crisis of identity. Then players start to do things they wouldn’t normally do and try to be someone they are not and their overall game suffers. I think this was a big problem with Howden”s development bouncing from center to wing up and down the line up. He didn’t know how he was supposed to play on any given night and his overall game suffered for it. Players also need time to build chemistry with one another. I hope the bottom 6 gets to play more then 3 games together as a unit before Quinn shuffles everything up again

 

[NYR Viper]

Lost me at Dvorak being a 2nd line center.

Never posted 40 points, yet he's a 2c??

He had 38 points in 70 games. That’s 40+ points over 82 games playing on a horrid offensive team in Arizona

 

[Inferno]

He had 38 points in 70 games. That’s 40+ points over 82 games playing on a horrid offensive team in Arizona

But were they horrid because he's part of the problem? That's the question.

 

[pld459666]

He had 38 points in 70 games. That’s 40+ points over 82 games playing on a horrid offensive team in Arizona

Still, very much 3rd line center numbers

 

[bobbop]

The Coyotes can probably move several of these guys on expiring contracts (Stepan, Goligoski, Demers) at the trade deadline to replenish their draft capital.

OEL is not a deadline trade. That’s most likely to happen this summer. Saves big $ and should get at least a decent return.

 

[SA16]

The Coyotes can probably move several of these guys on expiring contracts (Stepan, Goligoski, Demers) at the trade deadline to replenish their draft capital.

OEL is not a deadline trade. That’s most likely to happen this summer. Saves big $ and should get at least a decent return.

The good news is there is still nine days remaining in this summer. I'll expect something imminently.

 

[haohmaru]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

 

[haohmaru]

And, to clarify, I don't even love Hayes or his contract but it would certainly address a glaring need at this point.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Just addressing the bolded.

They gave it a(n inadvisable) push this year, and it didn't work out, and now they're left with a declining Kessel, a declining Stepan, a declining OEL, and Hall's about to bolt. Also, their goalies are a mess. Meanwhile, their finances are in rough shape, and they've got no 1st, no 2nd, no 3rd this year, and no 1st and no 3rd next year. Sure, they can try to unload some of the bigger, older names on large contracts to address the financial issue, but as we just saw with the Bjugstad deal, that won't do much to help with actually rebuilding the team, especially in the flat-cap world.

I mean, if Bjugstad at half price just returned a conditional 7th, what is Derek Stepan bringing back? Does Phil Kessel, for all his past glory, even garner you a single 1st round pick, given he's 32, coming off 38 pts in 70GP, with $6.8MM due for two more years? And of course, OEL is priced based on his play in his mid 20s, but is now 29 and locked in at $8.25MM for seven more years. You get the picture.

So, what can they do to actually start rebuilding?

Yes, Keller is on a $7.15MM AAV for 8 more years, but he's also one of the few legit top line talents they possess, is only 22, and you'd be selling super low. Is it better to move the player – or keep him and hope he rebounds, either to be part of the core going forward or to build his value? (If it's not working out, you can always decide to move him again in 1-2 years, when he'll still be only be 23-24, with fewer years remaining on his deal, and the flat cap closer to ending.)

Chychrun is also only 22, and unlike Keller, way outperforms his contract. So, while he'd likely fetch a boatload, wouldn't it be better to keep and build around him?

IMO, Dvorak/Schmaltz are their best bets to move for real restocking purposes. Both 24, both signed sub-$6MM longterm, Schmaltz with more offensive bona fides (to this point), Dvorak cheaper and signed for 1 less year. (As @bobbop points out, a useful vet with one year remaining who actually justifies his contract – unlike Stepan – such as Hjalmarsson might provide some value, but again, in a flat-cap world is it really going to be anything to really move the needle?)

I do agree that Arizona would be more interested in picks/prospects than players of Howden/Lemieux's profile if they were to trade them.

I'm not going to comment about Arizona as I don't know a whole lot about them. My comment was based more on whether Dvorak really is the the player the poster described. Because if he was, I don't see why that player would be available. And, to your point, certainly not the package being offered.

 

[GAGLine]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

Does the salary cap exist in your fantasy world?

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

This is an important year for kids to grow and the team starting to at least build a foundation for its bottom 6 players. It can be tinkered with by Barron coming in, a trade for a specific guy etc. but I expect 4 of the 6 spots to be filled internally especially if fast comes back on a team friendly contract.

I agree with a lot of this. I do think it's presumptuous to count on Barron stepping in a centering a third line.

My issue/question with Fast is: will he be looking to be paid as a top six player or a middle six player? He'd be best served as a 3RW.

A guy like lemmy should know his role. 4th line Lw, pest, net front presence, Pk. It’s nice to have the luxury that he can play third line in case of injury and what have you but it’s not good to keep bouncing guys around the line up and having a crisis of identity.

See, they way you describe Lemieux is not the way I would describe a 4th line player. If he does all, that he's a very good third line forward.

Then players start to do things they wouldn’t normally do and try to be someone they are not and their overall game suffers. I think this was a big problem with Howden”s development bouncing from center to wing up and down the line up. He didn’t know how he was supposed to play on any given night and his overall game suffered for it.

I don't know if its players trying to do things they normally do. I think it's players still trying to create an identity and figuring out the kind of player they need to be in order to be effective and be productive. A good example of this is Howden. I'm not sure the moving from C to W harmed his development. I think it's more he hasn't figured out what kind of player he wants to be, can be and should be. We saw that with Dubinsky — it took him a while to figure out how he needed to play. The same is true for Andersson and hopefully his time in Sweden will help him do that.

Players also need time to build chemistry with one another. I hope the bottom 6 gets to play more then 3 games together as a unit before Quinn shuffles everything up again

I agree with this. But too often those two lines were filled with misfit parts and guys who quite simply weren't full-time NHL players.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I like Dvorak as an option.

But that is LOL funny that someone would move Kravtsov for a guy who has been nothing more than a 3rd line center thus far in his career, at times looking like he can play 2C. Not happening.

And then to throw Jones in too? You’d think we’re trading for Nylander or Monahan with that package.

Maybe he looked up Radek Dvorak's stats

 

[McSauer]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

Did you not watch him on NYR...? He was HORRENDOUS. If there was any mistake, it was signing him in the first place.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Maybe he looked up Radek Dvorak's stats

He scored 30 goals. Once.

 

[haohmaru]

Does the salary cap exist in your fantasy world?

What are you talking about? How much is Trouba making? What was Shattenkirk making? What's Shattenkirk costing next year for nothing? And the year after that? And the year after that? We should've bought out Staal, not Shattenkirk. Maybe we should've traded Kreider. There are a lot of moving parts beyond just not buying out Shattenkirk.

No fantasy world - just a world where we move a guy and replace him with a more expensive guy and are STILL PAYING THE OLD GUY.

What fantasy cap world are YOU living in?

 

[Fitzy]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

It's possible that they could have handled the decision differently, but I wouldn't take either Shattenkirk or Pionk over any of the 3 guys we have playing on the right side today.

 

[Edge]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

I honestly don't think this roster looks better with Shattenkirk, Fox and ADA all in the same lineup --- not by a longshot. I think Trouba, for some of the grief he seems to generate, is a big reason why ADA and Fox were in situations where they could succeed. Not all that dissimilar to how Pionk is in a situation where he is more likely to succeed in Winnipeg.

Beyond that, keeping Pionk and having one of the quartet of him, Fox, ADA and Shattenkirk move to the left side would not have result in equal success from any of those guys, and IMO, would only further cut into the success we experienced.

As for Hayes, I don't really see a long-term solution. While I think we'd be stronger down the middle in the short term, I think the overall result would've been less than what we collectively saw this year. Especially if we're talking about keeping the defensive corps from above. That's an overall net loss.

And I think if we had a time machine to do it all over again, people would still be bitching about Shattenkirk, still bitching about Pionk, still bitching about Hayes, and most likely not even able to bitch about our short playoff series.

 

[haohmaru]

Did you not watch him on NYR...? He was HORRENDOUS. If there was any mistake, it was signing him in the first place.

I'm watching the guy who is playing now, isn't injured, and is perfectly fine. He didn't have much of a chance here.

Thoughts on Kevin Shattenkirk’s Buyout and What Rangers Could Have Done Differently

 

[Krams]

The Shattenkirk buyout is still driving me nuts. The guy is apparently decent enough that he can play 19 minutes/game for a Stanley Cup contender/favorite but wasn't good enough to play on a rebuilding roster. Should've kept him through the rebuild, kept the first and Pionk, signed Hayes, forgotten about Trouba. Instead, we get to pay him 9M+ for the next three years for nothing while sucking for air every year with cap space. If anyone should've been bought out it's Staal.

The Shattenkirk buyout was a strategic decision after the Rangers traded for Trouba and Fox. Had we kept Shattenkirk and didn't trade for Trouba, who would have killed penalties and be the shut-down guy for key matchups? The buyout was absolutely the right decision. It provided an opportunity for Fox and DeAngelo to play more sheltered minutes instead of going up against the opposing teams top line players and they flourished. The resulting cap hit is only really relevant for this upcoming season, it is negligible for the following two, and it does not put us in a situation where we are forced to move a key player for spare parts because we are up against the cap ceiling.

 

[haohmaru]

I honestly don't think this roster looks better with Shattenkirk, Fox and ADA all in the same lineup --- not by a longshot. I think Trouba, for some of the grief he seems to generate, is a big reason why ADA and Fox were in situations where they could succeed. Not all that dissimilar to how Pionk is in a situation where he is more likely to succeed in Winnipeg.

Beyond that, keeping Pionk and having one of the quartet of him, Fox, ADA and Shattenkirk move to the left side would not have result in equal success from any of those guys, and IMO, would only further shrink the odds of success.

As for Hayes, I don't really see a long-term solution. While I think we'd be stronger down the middle in the short term, I think the overall result would've been less than what we had. Especially if we're talking about keeping the defensive corps from above. That's an overall net loss.

And I think if we had a time machine to do it all over again, people would still be bitching about Shattenkirk, still bitching about Pionk, still bitching about Hayes, and most likely not even able to bitch about our short playoff series.

Meh - it's less about Shattenkirk vs. Trouba than it is about mismanagement of cap space and watching this guy fulfilling a role for a very competitive team and we can't make it work and have to eat $ for years. I didn't love Shattenkirk coming here but I understood it and I really didn't bitch about Pionk at all - another young guy that HF boards wanted to crucify instead of allowing him to grow into a role (Howden is this whipping boy, currently).

I don't love Hayes, but he'd be a fit and, obviously, if we were to have signed him then Kreider would've been moved.

I don't love buyouts but I really don't love them when they affect a team, profoundly, for years.

 

[Edge]

Meh - it's less about Shattenkirk vs. Trouba than it is about mismanagement of cap space and watching this guy fulfilling a role for a very competitive team and we can't make it work and have to eat $ for years. I didn't love Shattenkirk coming here but I understood it and I really didn't bitch about Pionk at all - another young guy that HF boards wanted to crucify instead of allowing him to grow into a role (Howden is this whipping boy, currently).

I don't love Hayes, but he'd be a fit and, obviously, if we were to have signed him then Kreider would've been moved.

I don't love buyouts but I really don't love them when they affect a team, profoundly, for years.

Shattenkirk will eat space next year, but beyond that I think the impact is fairly negiligible. I also don't know if it profoundly influences what the Rangers are likely to do anyway.

It's one of those things that really generates more conversation online with fans than anywhere else. But I just don't see it serving as a trajectory changer.

 

[Krams]

I don't love buyouts but I really don't love them when they affect a team, profoundly, for years.

After this upcoming season, he counts for $1.4M for 2021-22 and 2022-23. How is that profound?