I understand the thinking behind the deal. I'm just not sold on Dvorak.
To your points:
1) I think Howden still has a place on this team (granted I'm not one of the people who craps on him)
2) I think Lemieux still has upside and can be a goo/very good third liner'
3) If the 22nd pick is in play, I would rather use it to move up in the draft
Whatsmore, if Dvorak is the player is you describe, why would AZ want to make this trade?
Just addressing the bolded.
They gave it a(n inadvisable) push this year, and it didn't work out, and now they're left with a declining Kessel, a declining Stepan, a declining OEL, and Hall's about to bolt. Also, their goalies are a mess. Meanwhile, their finances are in rough shape, and they've got no 1st, no 2nd, no 3rd this year, and no 1st and no 3rd next year. Sure, they can try to unload some of the bigger, older names on large contracts to address the financial issue, but as we just saw with the Bjugstad deal, that won't do much to help with actually
rebuilding the team, especially in the flat-cap world.
I mean, if Bjugstad at half price just returned a conditional 7th, what is Derek Stepan bringing back? Does Phil Kessel, for all his past glory, even garner you a single 1st round pick, given he's 32, coming off 38 pts in 70GP, with $6.8MM due for two more years? And of course, OEL is priced based on his play in his mid 20s, but is now 29 and locked in at $8.25MM for
seven more years. You get the picture.
So, what can they do to actually start rebuilding?
Yes, Keller is on a $7.15MM AAV for 8 more years, but he's also one of the few legit top line talents they possess, is only 22, and you'd be selling super low. Is it better to move the player – or keep him and hope he rebounds, either to be part of the core going forward or to build his value? (If it's not working out, you can always decide to move him again in 1-2 years, when he'll still be only be 23-24, with fewer years remaining on his deal, and the flat cap closer to ending.)
Chychrun is also only 22, and unlike Keller, way outperforms his contract. So, while he'd likely fetch a boatload, wouldn't it be better to keep and build around him?
IMO, Dvorak/Schmaltz are their best bets to move for real restocking purposes. Both 24, both signed sub-$6MM longterm, Schmaltz with more offensive bona fides (to this point), Dvorak cheaper and signed for 1 less year. (As
@bobbop points out, a useful vet with one year remaining who actually justifies his contract – unlike Stepan – such as Hjalmarsson might provide
some value, but again, in a flat-cap world is it really going to be anything to really move the needle?)
I do agree that Arizona would be more interested in picks/prospects than players of Howden/Lemieux's profile if they were to trade them.
