Roster Building thread - Part IX - (2024 edition)

[Kendo]

Jones leads our team is expected goals against and high danger chances against. Lindren is our second Dman for expected goals against. I know it's sample size, but I'm not sure Jones is going to have a 4 year future here, or that a Lingren-Jones pair has much of a future.

Our top 6 (5 on 5 expected goals against)
Jones
Wheeler
Bonino (1st @worst CF%. So glad he get hammed in own end, blocking shots. Fills a great role)
Trouba
Trocheck
Goodrow

One could have taken a guess on that without any graph or chart available. Trocheck can obviously be excused because the other end also counts, but the those other 5 are called out every game and for good reason. They're plugs in our lineup right now.

First, I obviously agree that he's unlikely to have a 4-yr career here. That's why I said "waving a wand" and admitting "wishcasting." So yeah, of course.

Second, even if Jiminy Cricket made him a real NHL Dman, I wouldn't put him and Lindy together anyway. I was saying that they can swap places as needed in that dream world scenario.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I know that he’s supposed to bring more than points but to be honest he sucks at most of those things too.

 

[Daves a mess]

I know that he’s supposed to bring more than points but to be honest he sucks at most of those things too.

The Goodrow issue needs to be addressed.

Soon.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Pro scouting has their work cut out for them. Not trading for Sam Bennett before he went to Florida was a major blunder. As perfect a buy low candidate as I've ever seen. This is where I look. Top two round picks in the last 3 to 7 years that are performing below expectations but still have high enough floors that they're useful in a bottom six or fringe middle six role. As well as players that are blocked by others ahead of them that may not be able to grow into their potential.


Here's some names:

Michael Rasmussen
Morgan Frost
Alex Texier
Barrett Hayton (Lafreniere connection)
Ty Dellandrea
Isac Lundestrom
Phil Tomasino
Brett Leason
Jack Quinn
Yegor Chinakov
Tyson Foerster
Conor Zary
Kent Johnson

You just wanted to set off my PHIL TOMASINO bat signal, didn’t you?

 

[TGWL]

The Goodrow issue needs to be addressed.

Soon.

Even with the overpay on salary total, I can't fathom how he got 6 years instead of 4.

 

[bernmeister]

Aaaaaaand with Trouba on 4th line RW like YOU suggested, we are good to go if a Dman gets injured!

Of course we are, if we are objective and care about facts.
Hopefully we acquire Helleson from ANA and he can start at 3RD w/Trouba holding his hand.
As JT skating worsens more than already, we deploy him to W where there are less skating requirements.

Inn this way, if we are forced to move JT due to cap, we are at least somewhat prepared.
Fact we have not developed D, RD so far, along w/JT on off skating issues currently, is cause for concern

Again
LISTEN TO BERN

 

[NYR Viper]

I go back and forth on whether I would buy out Goodrow or even attempt to trade him @ 50% retained

Cap Hit Calculations​

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( NYR)
2024-25	$5,000,000	$3,641,667	$0	$1,111,111	$1,111,111	$3,888,889	-$247,222
2025-26	$3,750,000	$3,641,667	$0	$1,111,111	$1,111,111	$2,638,889	$1,002,778
2026-27	$1,250,000	$3,641,667	$1,250,000	$1,111,111	$2,361,111	$138,889	$3,502,778
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$1,111,111	$1,111,111	-$1,111,111	$1,111,111
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$1,111,111	$1,111,111	-$1,111,111	$1,111,111
2029-30	$0	$0	$0	$1,111,111	$1,111,111	-$1,111,111	$1,111,111
TOTAL	$10,000,000	$10,925,001	$1,250,000	$6,666,667	$7,916,667	$3,333,333	$7,591,667

Versus 3 years of $1.82m dead cap space.

I don't see a huge need this upcoming off-season to clutch to the $2m in cap penalty as compared to the buyout and I think I would prefer the shorter penalty to the 6 years required for the buyout. I think I'd see if there was a team willing to talk Goodrow at 50% cap hit for the remaining 3 years

 

[bernmeister]

So, even if we trade Lindgren for a slight upgrade (and a slight upgrade is the best we can do in season because of the cap), the core problem remains. The Rangers consider Miller/Trouba to be our top pair.
Trouba can't be traded. He just had a baby. He's got a no trade. If you really want to upgrade our defense from the ground up, you have to consider trading Miller. And quite frankly, I've given up on him being Hedman. Miller has more value than Lindgren. Somebody would retain money to acquire him. Nobody is retaining money to get Lindgren. We would need to add other quality assets like a 1st or Othmann. Sorry, I'm not doing that to upgrade our 4th defenseman. If you trade Miller, maybe that shakes up the pairs. New guy with Fox. Gus with Trouba, etc. Trading Lindgren doesn't accomplish nothing. Miller and Trouba are still together.

NO to dealing KAM
hard to see package w/enuf profit returned to be worthwhile
also, supply and demand
quality D are in short supply

Trading Lindgren gets Fox a better partner (at least in theory) that in itself is a pretty big win.

The problem with Lindgren is that he doesn’t work with any of the D. Playing Fox with someone who doesn’t murder offense is not something to be played down, it would be a big step forward.

That theory is a false assumption.
Yes we should trade Lindy, but that is b'c good asset mgmt

We should look for best return overall, not try to force better LD somehow for lesser LD

Lindgren + Jones
for
Rasmussen + DET 2nd is best we can do.

Ras Edstrom Rempe = crushing, punishing 4th line
Think outside da box

Trading Miller is the only move that allows us to totally revamp our whole defense. Now, will Drury ever come to the conclusion that the defense needs revamping? That's the question. My main point in all these discussions is that trading Lindgren really solves nothing. If they believe Lindgren is done, they will allow him to leave in free agency like Fast. And then sign another bland d first guy to pair with Fox.

No, not likely, tho I'd have open mind to see what you come up w/for actual deal.

Our best hope is to deal from surplus OF Ws w/OTT and get Sanderson, keeping KAM


ok no more hockey hookey for bern today

hopefully something big around w'e

 

[McRanger92]

As I remember it, a few players went at Aho in that game, including Laf, TWICE, but he wouldn't go. I remember Trouba calling Aho out post game over not answering the bell like he does even on CLEAN hits.

Dont give him the option. It's not like Trouba gets to choose when a guy grabs him after a hit

 

[JimmyG89]

I'm hopeful they can upgrade Lindgren and move him out, even if that happens this summer. He does not need to be extended based on how he is currently playing unless he plans on taking a pay cut. A 26 year old isn't going to do that unless his game and numbers cratered.

He has value around the league. The question is can you move out Lindgren and then get the replacement because you probably are not making a deal with Lindgren in it and getting the replacement player.

You could move Lindgren, promote Gus and get a 3LD. Easier than moving for a top 4 LD.

Would Jake Middleton be an upgrade? He doesn't play with Fox and has numbers similar to Lindgren. Would think he would be a boost, even if he is the 3LD. Minnesota is trending seller at the deadline and he has this and next year remaining at a rate cheaper than Lindgren.

 

[Machinehead]

I know that he’s supposed to bring more than points but to be honest he sucks at most of those things too.

He sucks at ALL of those things.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

He sucks at ALL of those things.

His PK metrics are good?

Can entirely be driven by who he’s out there with but it hasn’t been bad when he’s been out there.

If we’re talking 5v5 then yeah, he sucks at everything.

 

[B17 Apricots]

Pro scouting has their work cut out for them. Not trading for Sam Bennett before he went to Florida was a major blunder. As perfect a buy low candidate as I've ever seen. This is where I look. Top two round picks in the last 3 to 7 years that are performing below expectations but still have high enough floors that they're useful in a bottom six or fringe middle six role. As well as players that are blocked by others ahead of them that may not be able to grow into their potential.


Here's some names:

Michael Rasmussen
Morgan Frost
Alex Texier
Barrett Hayton (Lafreniere connection)
Ty Dellandrea
Isac Lundestrom
Phil Tomasino
Brett Leason
Jack Quinn
Yegor Chinakov
Tyson Foerster
Conor Zary
Kent Johnson

Definitely some buy low candidates there but also some blue chips that would cost a good chunk. Staying in Calgary, I'd throw Dillon Dubé in there as well. He's been stapled to their 4th line, even if they still have playoff aspirations they might be comfortable moving him

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

His PK metrics are good?

Can entirely be driven by who he’s out there with but it hasn’t been bad when he’s been out there.

If we’re talking 5v5 then yeah, he sucks at everything.

I don't put much faith in PK metrics. It's hard for forwards to be bad at PK. Generally all you have to do is be aware enough to block passing lanes with your stick, be willing to block shots, clear the puck when it's near you instead of trying to be cute, and change smartly.

Most of what we think of as forwards being effective on PK is really defensemen and goaltending.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

4 years ago. Good times. F/U John Davidson:

 

[Fitzy]

Goodrow has taken several steps back this season. First two years he was playing at a competent bottom 6 level. This season his play has been indistinguishable from that of the dime-a-dozen barely NHL competent fourth liners that we've had over the past half decade.

I don't know if it's scheme fit, age decline, injury... but he needs a buyout.

 

[Kendo]

I go back and forth on whether I would buy out Goodrow or even attempt to trade him @ 50% retained

Cap Hit Calculations​

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]SEASON[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL BASE SALARY[/TD]
[TD]INITIAL CAP HIT[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING BONUS[/TD]
[TD]BUYOUT COST[/TD]
[TD]POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS[/TD]
[TD]SAVINGS[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT (

NYR)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2024-25[/TD]
[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$3,641,667[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$3,888,889[/TD]
[TD]-$247,222[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2025-26[/TD]
[TD]$3,750,000[/TD]
[TD]$3,641,667[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$2,638,889[/TD]
[TD]$1,002,778[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2026-27[/TD]
[TD]$1,250,000[/TD]
[TD]$3,641,667[/TD]
[TD]$1,250,000[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$2,361,111[/TD]
[TD]$138,889[/TD]
[TD]$3,502,778[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2027-28[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]-$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2028-29[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]-$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2029-30[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$0[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]-$1,111,111[/TD]
[TD]$1,111,111[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]
[TD]$10,925,001[/TD]
[TD]$1,250,000[/TD]
[TD]$6,666,667[/TD]
[TD]$7,916,667[/TD]
[TD]$3,333,333[/TD]
[TD]$7,591,667[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Versus 3 years of $1.82m dead cap space.

I don't see a huge need this upcoming off-season to clutch to the $2m in cap penalty as compared to the buyout and I think I would prefer the shorter penalty to the 6 years required for the buyout. I think I'd see if there was a team willing to talk Goodrow at 50% cap hit for the remaining 3 years

25-26 is going to be a big cap crunch for us even with a moderate cap increase. Panarin and Trouba will both be gone the following year, so we can afford the $3.5 hit for that season.

If we can stomach having him around for one more season after this and forgo the cap discount year, then there's a extra quarter mill breathing room per year for 25-26 through 28-29 and no extra year. It's worth considering, unless we can find something useful to spend $4m on for next year only.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

25-26 is going to be a big cap crunch for us even with a moderate cap increase. Panarin and Trouba will both be gone the following year, so we can afford the $3.5 hit for that season.

If we can stomach having him around for one more season after this and forgo the cap discount year, then there's a extra quarter mill breathing room per year for 25-26 through 28-29 and no extra year. It's worth considering, unless we can find something useful to spend $4m on for next year only.

We can’t.

The ROI on him is horrendous. I wouldn’t count on both Trouba and Panarin playing out their deals here either.

 

[mike14]

Goodrow has taken several steps back this season. First two years he was playing at a competent bottom 6 level. This season his play has been indistinguishable from that of the dime-a-dozen barely NHL competent fourth liners that we've had over the past half decade.

I don't know if it's scheme fit, age decline, injury... but he needs a buyout.

I think it's a combo of all that. He's never been 'good', but he was 'useful' in the past. I would have said his job, and his strength, is being the worst player on his line within the top-9 and doing the dirty jobs that no-one else wants to do that allow the better players to do their thing. He doesn't seem to have a role this year, as evidenced by the fact that he wasn't really bumped up anywhere on the lineup while we've had top-6 forwards injured.
He's not going to produce when Vesey has been by far his best linemate and the other two he's played with most are Pitlick and Bonino. But even on those lines he needs to show something

After 1/2 a season he's on pace to have about 120 minutes less of ice time than last season, so it's probably safe to assume Lavi doesn't really see a fit for him.

I've always said that from this TDL onwards he was movable with a bit of retention, but his play this year makes it a lot harder

 

[hardnosed]

I'm hopeful they can upgrade Lindgren and move him out, even if that happens this summer. He does not need to be extended based on how he is currently playing unless he plans on taking a pay cut. A 26 year old isn't going to do that unless his game and numbers cratered.

He has value around the league. The question is can you move out Lindgren and then get the replacement because you probably are not making a deal with Lindgren in it and getting the replacement player.

You could move Lindgren, promote Gus and get a 3LD. Easier than moving for a top 4 LD.

Would Jake Middleton be an upgrade? He doesn't play with Fox and has numbers similar to Lindgren. Would think he would be a boost, even if he is the 3LD. Minnesota is trending seller at the deadline and he has this and next year remaining at a rate cheaper than Lindgren.

Yes, that's the issue with trading Lindgren. You must get his replacement in that deal or another deal because we have left ourselves with a 6 and 7th defensemen that can't play defense. Jones is not an NHL player and I fail to see the fascination with Gus. He's an OK 6th guy but that's it. The guy scored 60 points 5 years ago and I think 40 last year and he can't find a job. On a PTO last year. We got him at the vet minimum. Why? Because he sucks at defense.

 

[Kendo]

We can’t.

The ROI on him is horrendous. I wouldn’t count on both Trouba and Panarin playing out their deals here either.

Obviously, it's bad, or else we wouldn't be discussing buyout scenarios.

The difference between buying him out this summer or next is one season of $4m in space (full hit vs a slight cap discount). If we can find a good fit 3C/W at the TDL for around his hit with one more year remaining, then we can buy out Goodie this summer. That new $4m expires after 24-25, and we'll have the needed space the following year without NEEDING to trade a big contract.

If Trouba and/or Panarin is traded in the offseason before their final year, then maneuvering is of course, much, much easier. I'm not putting money on either/both staying/going, but the pragmatic approach is to assume they're here and plan accordingly.

I'm more "describing" things than I am "prescribing" anything. Like thinking a few turns ahead in board games or card games. Laying out the options before it's time to choose. Many become moot. It's still good to "chew on them" a little bit.

 

[Machinehead]

His PK metrics are good?

Can entirely be driven by who he’s out there with but it hasn’t been bad when he’s been out there.

If we’re talking 5v5 then yeah, he sucks at everything.

PK metrics are a glorified goaltending stat.

Igor hit the skids and Bonino cratered from elite to average on the PK overnight.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yes, that's the issue with trading Lindgren. You must get his replacement in that deal or another deal because we have left ourselves with a 6 and 7th defensemen that can't play defense. Jones is not an NHL player and I fail to see the fascination with Gus. He's an OK 6th guy but that's it. The guy scored 60 points 5 years ago and I think 40 last year and he can't find a job. On a PTO last year. We got him at the vet minimum. Why? Because he sucks at defense.

Gus is better than Lindgren.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The Goodrow issue needs to be addressed.

Soon.

It will be. If Drury has done one positive thing is get rid of shitty players even if he brought them in.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Goodrow has taken several steps back this season. First two years he was playing at a competent bottom 6 level. This season his play has been indistinguishable from that of the dime-a-dozen barely NHL competent fourth liners that we've had over the past half decade.

I don't know if it's scheme fit, age decline, injury... but he needs a buyout.

I'd pay a decent wing prospect to get rid of the contract. Lamb, Chemelar, et al. The Rangers are overloaded with wingers.