Roster Building thread - Part IX - (2024 edition)

[SA16]

Good lord the Mika, Kreider complaints on this board are unreal...it's one raised hand after another in a competition to demonstrate who knows the least about actual hockey, which involves a bit more than OFFENSIVE stats (fancy or regular).

The Mika - Kreider line is asked every night to shut down the other team's best line. This has to happen because 1) the bread line is look away horrific defensively (which is generally fine for a line that produces offensively at the rates they are - but it would be nice if they tightened up a little); and 2) the Rangers currently don't have a third line.

For a time, the Rangers were using Pitlick - Goodrow - Vesey against top lines, and this somewhat freed up the Mika line from a matchup standpoint. But that's a lot of time on the ice for Goodrow and Pitlick, and injuries have messed that up.

You want to see the Mika line increase offensive output? Get a third line that can handle top line matchups. Flip Kakko to the third line and Cuylle to the Mika line. Kakko with perhaps Goodrow and Vesy (or, gasp, Perry) may be able to take some of the defensive load off of Mika and Kreider.

The Panarin lines defensive stats are perfectly fine. They just have an .890 goalie save percentage while on the ice so they've allowed goals.

 

[Kendo]

Lindgren at or close to $4m is going to be an anchor

Change that 4 to a 5, and I'm 100% with you. If he gets $5m+, then I'll be just as frustrated as everyone else. I think that's where the over/under is. I'd jump on 4x4, but would drive him to the airport at 5x5.

It is the same old Girardi argument.

Proponents of Girardi took the approach that what he was making was affordable and him filling that role saved us money over a legit top RD.

The other side thought Girardi just sucked and shouldn't be making anything.

Lindgren isn't that bad but he's trending towards me just not wanting him in the lineup regardless of the cap implications.

Fair take. I can agree to disagree there. I think coach should be tinkering with a Miller-Fox pairing to see if our upgrade is already in house. If that "works," then Lindy can slot down and be a 2nd/3rd pair tweener at an appropriate price of $4m-ish.

If I could wave a wand and make Jones a PP2 merchant while still having some 5v5 struggles, then Lindy would be the perfect insulator for that development for the next 4 years. Miller on the top pair, and platoon Jones/Lindy between the 2nd/3rd as their play ebbs and flows. But I know that's just wishcasting.

Since we have no one in the pipeline if Jones and Robertson are both "Raph Diaz 6/7D at best," then I'm specifically concerned about the left side for the next 3 years. With a little bit of luck, Forte can step in by 2025-26 or 2026-27.

People saying Lindgren is "only 26" like its reassuring. He's already declining at 26, he wont be able to take a full shift by 30 at the rate hes going. Torts would love him though.

I'd be okay with running him into the ground by planning to let him walk at 30.


I'm not saying that anyone is "dead wrong and I'm the only one right." It's more of a "Yes, but," than a "NO." Y'know? I still partially agree with all three of you.

To me, Lindgren's situation is VERY similar to Girardi's, so I want to re-sign him (for the right $) and plan to let him walk at 30 instead of the big mistake contract. Apples to apples. Get a do-over on that one.

If someone says "Lindy's body will hold up *worse* than G's," then they may very well be right. There's something to agree to disagree on.

 

[hardnosed]

If we're being realistic, we're not getting rid of Miller either.

Trading Miller is the only move that allows us to totally revamp our whole defense. Now, will Drury ever come to the conclusion that the defense needs revamping? That's the question. My main point in all these discussions is that trading Lindgren really solves nothing. If they believe Lindgren is done, they will allow him to leave in free agency like Fast. And then sign another bland d first guy to pair with Fox.

 

[MrAlmost]

Kreider is nearly identical to Tkahcuk?



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In this case, the difference is mostly defense. That matters when both guys are probably ~70 point players and Kreider is literally better at scoring goals.

"Oh but you held up Erik Karlsson."

View attachment 804406

Yes, because he had the best even strength offensive season basically in history. He's FIFTEEN standard deviations above Tkachuk.

What I value isn't mysterious at all. If your offensive impact is such that it makes you elite on its own, then I don't really care much about defensive impact. Tkahcuk doesn't have an elite offensive impact, he has a good offensive impact, while being terrible defensively. That's different from Karlsson who is one of the best 5v5 play-drivers of all-time or let's say Artemi Panarin who is on pace for a 56-62-118 season.

You can disagree with all of this but to claim that what I value is inconsistent just doesn't hold up. I value players that have a good impact and when it comes to the money Tkachuk is making (and the hype surrounding him), I value players that have an elite impact.

I'm not attacking you so you don't have to get defensive and I am not necessarily disagreeing with you. Sorry if it came off that way.

I even said Karlsson was dominate and that the example wasn't great cause he is a D so having that offensive impact weighs more heavily I imagine.

But again, what is different about these charts from Possession and Rate metrics? Are these better cause it accounts for team impact? Does it remove the team and opponent from the equation or add them? Is it better one way or the other? Are these charts nuanced enough that they aren't just weighing a chance against from the "right side" as being the fault of the LD?

If these are better than Possession and Rate metrics, where does the discrepancy come from in the D impact from Kreider to Tkachuk? You've called Kreider elite at 5v5. Is it just cause of offense or because you have combined offense and defense? Cause Tkachuks offense is better than Kreider's, but yeah the charts say worse D. But doesn't that still make him a huge positive player at 5v5?

 

[NYR Viper]

Change that 4 to a 5, and I'm 100% with you. If he gets $5m+, then I'll be just as frustrated as everyone else. I think that's where the over/under is. I'd jump on 4x4, but would drive him to the airport at 5x5.


Fair take. I can agree to disagree there. I think coach should be tinkering with a Miller-Fox pairing to see if our upgrade is already in house. If that "works," then Lindy can slot down and be a 2nd/3rd pair tweener at an appropriate price of $4m-ish.

If I could wave a wand and make Jones a PP2 merchant while still having some 5v5 struggles, then Lindy would be the perfect insulator for that development for the next 4 years. Miller on the top pair, and platoon Jones/Lindy between the 2nd/3rd as their play ebbs and flows. But I know that's just wishcasting.

Since we have no one in the pipeline if Jones and Robertson are both "Raph Diaz 6/7D at best," then I'm specifically concerned about the left side for the next 3 years. With a little bit of luck, Forte can step in by 2025-26 or 2026-27.


I'd be okay with running him into the ground by planning to let him walk at 30.


I'm not saying that anyone is "dead wrong and I'm the only one right." It's more of a "Yes, but," than a "NO." Y'know? I still partially agree with all three of you.

To me, Lindgren's situation is VERY similar to Girardi's, so I want to re-sign him (for the right $) and plan to let him walk at 30 instead of the big mistake contract. Apples to apples. Get a do-over on that one.

If someone says "Lindy's body will hold up *worse* than G's," then they may very well be right. There's something to agree to disagree on.

If Drury moved forward signing Hanifan @ $7.5m x 7 years this off-season, choosing to trade Lindgren and not re-signing Gustafsson due to salary demands (say he gets 3x$3m from someone), I'd be okay with that.

I have a very hard time paying a d-man who doesn't put up points or create any semblance of offense $4m+ (Lindgren).

So going in to next year, if we had:

Miller-Fox
Hanifan-Trouba
_______-Schneider

I'd be pretty excited. Especially if Lindgren could return some positive assets and they could sign a veteran LD, say someone like Edmundson for ~$1.75m for a year or two and bring along Scanlin as the spare next year.

 

[Machinehead]

Good lord the Mika, Kreider complaints on this board are unreal...it's one raised hand after another in a competition to demonstrate who knows the least about actual hockey, which involves a bit more than OFFENSIVE stats (fancy or regular).

The Mika - Kreider line is asked every night to shut down the other team's best line. This has to happen because 1) the bread line is look away horrific defensively (which is generally fine for a line that produces offensively at the rates they are - but it would be nice if they tightened up a little); and 2) the Rangers currently don't have a third line.

For a time, the Rangers were using Pitlick - Goodrow - Vesey against top lines, and this somewhat freed up the Mika line from a matchup standpoint. But that's a lot of time on the ice for Goodrow and Pitlick, and injuries have messed that up.

You want to see the Mika line increase offensive output? Get a third line that can handle top line matchups. Flip Kakko to the third line and Cuylle to the Mika line. Kakko with perhaps Goodrow and Vesy (or, gasp, Perry) may be able to take some of the defensive load off of Mika and Kreider.

They're not being asked to shut down the top line anymore.

Laviolette doesn't hard match. Anybody who plays significant minutes for this team basically faces the same competition.

That would have been a valid complaint last year when, absolutely, Mika had some of the hardest usage in the league.

Getting away from that usage didn't make him any better because Quality of Competition is bullshit and the only "context" that really drives play is Quality of Teammates.

Same thing on defense. Under Gallant, Fox had brutal usage and Trouba had charmin usage. Lo and behold, Fox didn't get any better with a lighter load and Trouba sucked either way. Quality of Competition doesn't do anything 9 times out of 10.

 

[bhamill]

Not exactly a good fighter trading punches That may work in the AHL but that will get him knocked out in the NHL.

Arseneau is no joke, he's Ross Johnston level. There aren't better/tougher guys in the NHL. Your point stands though: not a god idea.

 

[bhamill]

Don't you also diatribe about how you can't teach talent?

Didn't Krav have a ton of talent? There's more to it than that.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm not attacking you so you don't have to get defensive and I am not necessarily disagreeing with you. Sorry if it came off that way.

I even said Karlsson was dominate and that the example wasn't great cause he is a D so having that offensive impact weighs more heavily I imagine.

But again, what is different about these charts from Possession and Rate metrics? Are these better cause it accounts for team impact? Does it remove the team and opponent from the equation or add them? Is it better one way or the other? Are these charts nuanced enough that they aren't just weighing a chance against from the "right side" as being the fault of the LD?

If these are better than Possession and Rate metrics, where does the discrepancy come from in the D impact from Kreider to Tkachuk? You've called Kreider elite at 5v5. Is it just cause of offense or because you have combined offense and defense? Cause Tkachuks offense is better than Kreider's, but yeah the charts say worse D. But doesn't that still make him a huge positive player at 5v5?

The main difference in the GAR-based charts is that it gives a little more credence to producing points (which is fair, some guys just produce points) and also it includes special teams to give a better look at total impact.

This is probably what you're referring to.

Kreider has the edge in GAR-based metrics because over that entire sample, he's just better at scoring. He's much better at scoring. Tkachuk's career high in goals is 35. Over the last few years Kreider is averaging close to 36 every 82 games. His average beats Tkahcuk's high.

That's because the main problem with Tkachuk is he just isn't that good at scoring (maybe that's team, I don't know) and Kreider is really underrated at it. Even if you took out Kreider being a good defensive player and regarded as a 5v5 darling, you can count on your fingers the guys better at straight up scoring goals. Kreider was in a Rocket race recently. He's elite at scoring goals.

 

[bhamill]

I hear that, but who actually is good nowadays? Maybe 10 centers in the whole league? Everyone has some huge warts of some kind unless you're McDavid or Matt Tkachuk. Even Adam Fox has huge warts this year.

The difference between winning a Cup or not is identifying core players that can play well 5 v 5 on both sides of the puck and filling in the roster with the correct support players to offset the warts of those core players.

I really do think Drury did a decent job of this considering what he's had to work with. The pieces just aren't in the correct places. Switching Miller and Lindgren would do wonders for both players. You can ironically enough have the next Phil Housley in Miller and they just refuse to put him in the correct position to become that.

Launching Goodrow, Bonino, Trouba, and Zibanejad (in order of importance) into the sun and getting useful players back would go a long, long way.

P.S. don't pay Shesterkin unless he takes a huge hometown discount to the tune of $6 million/year or less. Let a fringe team like Ottawa, Buffalo, or a desperate team like Carolina, Minnesota, or LA overpay him.

Zegras has scoring stats similar to Kakko 5v5. his two best years he had almost 20 points each of those years on the PP. He would not get that PP1 time, or those points, here.
I'd take a chance on him for sure, but not for what people are saying he would cost.

 

[Machinehead]

You know, it's the same old complaints about Kreider. Can't believe the guy killed my dog.

And yeah, his line has been very mediocre this year.

He's on pace for close to 40 goals. When you drop 40 just existing in a ho-hum season, you've arrived as a goal-scorer.

 

[bhamill]

Panarin, also expecting a kid very soon casts doubt on that... he's a no. 3-4 dman asked to be no. 1. Always been the issue.

Everyone reacts differently to stressors. And pregnancies and their complications can be vastly different.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Zegras to MTL just seems destined to happen.

 

[bhamill]

The Rangers need more pushback. Wilson is playing with a broken nose. He hits Johnny B on Saturday. Some people say Brodzinski was at fault. Still Wilson hit him. Face shield and all. Lafreniere scores the goal yesterday and one of the Capitals players hits him from behind. Wilson. The Rangers don't respond. This is your opportunity. Punch Wilson in the nose. Push the face shield into his nose. Rip off the shield. I am sick of this team. Start some scrums. Let's do something people. Nothing.

The Rangers aren't winning 4 playoff rounds with this D. One playoff round might be too much.

Surprisingly neither Wilson play was dirty. Brodz turned his back last second, we were lucky to even get that call. Wilson was trying to stop Laf from scoring, perfectly reasonable hit, just not in time.

 

[Kendo]

Just here to point out that Brodzinski has replaced Bonino in the position that Goodrow also can’t lock down.

https://x.com/vzmercogliano/status/1747282788632469868?s=46&t=WWGwhyQiVsqtB6-tfs442w

Good for JBro. I'd rather have a AAAA All-Star at 3C temporarily than what you get when you draw a 4C from memory, even though Bones has been *fine* as a 4C.

Here you are

Goodrow + Jones to Chicago for the Rangers 4th in 2025
Lindgren for Pinto
Othmann and Edstrom make the team out of camp next year
The Rangers sign one of Forbort, Cole, Edmundson for ~$2.25m on 1-2 year deals
They also re-sign Gustafsson to a 2 year deal and anchor him with Schneider which has been an effective pairing.

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I don't hate it one bit. Pinto's a C/W I'd love to have. I've been wanting a 4th C option on the W in the top 9. Even moreso with Chytil's concerns. I would structure the top 9 differently than you (same players, tho), but that is precisely the 4th line I'd want to see next year. Cuylle and Vesey are better players than basically every teams 4th line wingers, and honestly better than a ton of 3rd line wingers. But they can still both play a "4th line game." Go get another Bonino to back up Edstrom, and we're cooking.

If we can use that space for Hanifin and a JAG instead of two Gusses, then I'm even more for it.

 

[TGWL]

If I could wave a wand and make Jones a PP2 merchant while still having some 5v5 struggles, then Lindy would be the perfect insulator for that development for the next 4 years. Miller on the top pair, and platoon Jones/Lindy between the 2nd/3rd as their play ebbs and flows. But I know that's just wishcasting.

Since we have no one in the pipeline if Jones and Robertson are both "Raph Diaz 6/7D at best," then I'm specifically concerned about the left side for the next 3 years. With a little bit of luck, Forte can step in by 2025-26 or 2026-27.

Jones leads our team is expected goals against and high danger chances against. Lindren is our second Dman for expected goals against. I know it's sample size, but I'm not sure Jones is going to have a 4 year future here, or that a Lingren-Jones pair has much of a future.

Our top 6 (5 on 5 expected goals against)
Jones
Wheeler
Bonino (1st @worst CF%. So glad he get hammed in own end, blocking shots. Fills a great role)
Trouba
Trocheck
Goodrow

One could have taken a guess on that without any graph or chart available. Trocheck can obviously be excused because the other end also counts, but the those other 5 are called out every game and for good reason. They're plugs in our lineup right now.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Zegras to MTL just seems destined to happen.

Why? That'd be pretty low on my bingo card

 

[Machinehead]

Zegras to MTL just seems destined to happen.

Jeff Gorton and Montreal paying an arm and a leg for a 60 point player?

Having a normal one.

 

[bhamill]

There are results. He's a back to back 60+ point center at the ages of 20 and 21. He's currently injured and has played on one of the worst teams in the league his whole NHL career. He's only 22.

He had 48 even strength points last year.

His 5v5 scoring is similar to Kakko, who also brings excellent possession and defense. Zegras brings nothing else. His numbers this year are abysmal and he's injured again. A lot of the trade proposals for this guy are unhinged. On top of it, he's not a real good fit here. He won't get that prime PP1 opportunity and would likely be on the third line.
Again I'd take the chance on him but not for the price people seem willing to pay.

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

Jones leads our team is expected goals against and high danger chances against. I know it's sample size, but I'm not sure Jones is going to have a 4 year future here.

I know this draws hate every time I say it, but I'm sticking with my guns on this one.

Zac Jones is not an NHL defenseman. At best, he's Mike Mottau/Matt Gilroy/Thomas Pock 2.0.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Why? That'd be pretty low on my bingo card

Zegras and Caufield have played together before (WJCs) and they’re looking for more top 6 help. They have accumulated a decent amount of assets so they’re better positioned to make a move than a bunch of other teams.

Plus even if he isn’t the GM, this is the most JG move ever.

 

[TGWL]

I know this draws hate every time I say it, but I'm sticking with my guns on this one.

Zac Jones is not an NHL defenseman. At best, he's Mike Mottau/Matt Gilroy/Thomas Pock 2.0.

He wishes he was Pock!

 

[bhamill]

We need him

Good gravy. He has skinnier legs than the girl with cancer. How is that possible for an NHL player?
I'd love to see Zegras come here... just not at the price a lot on this board are okay paying.

 

[Kendo]

If Drury moved forward signing Hanifan @ $7.5m x 7 years this off-season, choosing to trade Lindgren and not re-signing Gustafsson due to salary demands (say he gets 3x$3m from someone), I'd be okay with that.

I have a very hard time paying a d-man who doesn't put up points or create any semblance of offense $4m+ (Lindgren).

So going in to next year, if we had:

Miller-Fox
Hanifan-Trouba
_______-Schneider

I'd be pretty excited. Especially if Lindgren could return some positive assets and they could sign a veteran LD, say someone like Edmundson for ~$1.75m for a year or two and bring along Scanlin as the spare next year.

Yeah, I replied to your lineup too. I think there's an option to keep Lindy for the right price, but if there's a guy the same age, more than twice the talent, and less than twice the price it's sort of a no brainer.

Miller - Fox seems to be a polarizing suggestion. Hell, Miller - Trouba are a polarizing pair as it is. I'm curious what a Hani-Fox pairing could do, though.

We can disagree on some of the details, but "in a perfect world," we'd end up with nearly identical rosters!

 

[bhamill]

Wilson is representative of the feeling among the fanbase that the Rangers are all talk when it comes to this kind of stuff. They let Wilson get away with the incident with Panarin despite talking a big game about it, specifically Sheriff Reaves. When they did nothing, other teams see that and take notice. Other teams know you can run their players and the Rangers will appeal to the refs, instead of policing things themselves. Nobody even looked at Aho cross-eyed in that game against the Canes and he's one of the softest players in the league. The Rangers dont have each other's backs enough.

There is a next level of competitiveness and intensity that this roster needs to reach, among their top players specifically, if they ever want to be more than just another playoff team. It makes them better when they are engaged in the physicality of the game on both ends and its just not there with enough consistency for my liking. Its been a common issue for years now. Another ho hum playoff performance this year and one of the leaders needs to go, or at least be put on notice. I would've stripped a few guys of A's awhile ago personally, i know thats mostly symbolic but it would at least send a message to the locker room.



One could argue he didnt want to come back based on how management was handling things. Dumping him Staal and Henrik then having a locker room crisis 3 games into the 2021 season would support this hypothesis.

As I remember it, a few players went at Aho in that game, including Laf, TWICE, but he wouldn't go. I remember Trouba calling Aho out post game over not answering the bell like he does even on CLEAN hits.