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Proposal: Roster Building Thread Part IV: High Hopes

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SA16 said:
I'm not getting into this. He might be a smart guy but I personally think he's a horrible analyst not to mention being incredibly rude. He's like a baseball pitcher who throws 100 mph but isn't very good. Has all the tools to do so but is missing some key things as well. If you create a model that outputs something like that it's clearly incorrect/not complete and there's no point even posting it. Keep working on it, tweaking it, and fine tuning until you get a more reasonable result and don't post every single iteration. And no I'm not saying a model should be perfect (or necessarily agree with conventional wisdom) but when you get egregious results like that something is obviously very very wrong and if you're posting it it should be asking for help working on it not to defend it (which he didn't do this time but there was the great Shea Weber is the best player in the NHL saga two years ago for about a day until he posted something like "oops messed up one of my inputs he's not even close!")

There's a lot more to analytics than just making models. Extensive review and testing is a major part for one.



Jagr really deserves more than that but it seems he's not going to get it since teams are so afraid of older players. His production is a lot better than many younger players and players who got more money.
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Do you know what that model was even? I don't think it was a WAR model but i could be wrong.

I like the "I'm not getting into this.", then you get into it :D

I think DTM is a really smart guy and he's building some really really good models, he knows himself they're not perfect (or even close to it) either and has admitted as much.
This was a new model he's WORKING on, as in it's a work in progress, i don't think he went into it any deeper, so for all we know it could be some XPM model or something like that which doesn't account for scoring at all, which could explain why Hagelin is so high.

That's just me speculating though, i have no idea what kind of a model it is.
 
Oscar Lindberg said:
People are aware Buch trained with Prentiss last summer right?
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People are aware that he was the scrawniest player we had at development camp and Traverse City too. They remarked about it a lot by the way--if you want to take the time to go back and look.

And then he had his back injury and people were wondering why it was taking him so long to come back from it.---????Why? Why? Why? Some people have short memories though and some people think that as soon as he's able to play the issue over his conditioning is over and done with--which isn't necessarily so and they get pissed off at other players--like Vesey--who are having issues other than conditioning.

You take this as a criticism of Pavel but it's not really. IMO--Kucherov, Pastrnak are players with the same issue. it takes them one-two-three years of teasing their fans before they're ready to really go but then they are ****ing awesome. IMO Pavel could be our best forward in two-three years--it's just a matter of his getting a few extra pounds of strength and putting other issues that he has behind him. IMO I'd rather go into the future with him right now than almost all of the players on this team other than Skjei, Andersson of Chytil. They are the real future.
 
NYR Viper said:
it appears Zadorov is close to re-signing with the Avs. That would have been a HUGE blow to the Avs if he walked. He's the last piece still around from the ROR trade?
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Yeah, they got this Compher kid that may pan out. Burly little fella that's really strong on his skates. But overall it was a bad deal for the AVs, but also a killing blow to BUF's attempts to have some depth.

Grigs is a bust, the skating isn't there where a player like him can't be effective on the boards.

ROR is a great player. A guy that will make the Canadian best on best team. But he's always been on bad teams. With some good players around him, he's a two way pivot that can free up an Eichel or Reinhart offensively, but BUF lacks depth.

AVs on the other hand need new ownership. They can't have two more years of what they had recently without really tanking their market below what it already is. Apathy has already set in with that fan base.
 
On Buchs... I think he's got 20-40 upside. I don't see him as a guy that can take over 5v5, but rather a dominant PP player, and one that can really create for his linemates.

AV's genius plan to not have the KZB line together for a season may have saved the Rangers some money on Buchs contract down the line, but one must value winning above all else.

This year, he just needs to stay healthy and produce when given offensive chances. I don't think it's even close when it comes to his offensive skill versus Jimmy. Buch tries harder too, so he's a cut above in my eyes.

That said, if he's given time and space by his linemates, then you can expect a stellar offensive year.

I'd go with:

Buch-Zib-Zuc
Kreids-Miller-Nash
Vesey-Hayes-XXX
Grabner-XXX-Fast

Let DD have a good 20-30 games and then flip him for a 4th liner.

I also have a feeling that Ryan Gropp will surprise some people. He's got a game that is tailor made for this team, and can fill a 4th line role. Said it before, and will say it again... He's a Jason Chimera type of player. Speed and power down the wing. That's very effective in today's game.

He'll also skate hard every shift instead of when ever he feels like it. So in that sense, he's more consistent than Kreider.

Maybe... just maybe this is the year Kreids shows up for a full season. He had a dominant 25 game start last year that was a catalyst for the Rangers early season success... but that needs to go on for the entire year.
 
I don't know about Buchnevich's ceiling, but it's not unreasonable to hope for 40 points this season given enough playing time IMO.
 
Buch I think will end up being a 20g 40a guy through his prime years - could hit 25-45/55 with the right linemates.

Kreider Zib Buch
Nash Hayes Zucc
Vesey Miller Jagr
Grabner DD Puempel/Fast/Nieves
 
Buchnevich had the highest p/60 on the team last year. I think he's got a way bigger ceiling than 40 points.
 
Machinehead said:
Buchnevich had the highest p/60 on the team last year. I think he's got a way bigger ceiling than 40 points.
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Outside of a couple outlandish opinions (from the same nameless folks) no one really thinks his ceiling is that.

I think his ceiling is whatever his health allows for.
 
Buch is one of my favorite Rangers since drafted. Such fun to watch and develop for NY. He can definitely put more than 40 up if his back holds up/more TOI and good quality of team mates
 
offdacrossbar said:
add jagr for just money on a 1 year incentivized deal. at this point, the guy just wants to keep playing and hopefully that means meaningful games in the spring. agree, limit his minutes so hes got legs for the entire season. lots of pp time and a regular 3rd line shift with some speed on it.

grabner andersson and jagr would be interesting for sure.

add him to this lineup and i can live with the middle of the ice looking like

mika
hayes
jtm
DD

or

mika
hayes
andersson
DD

either way, adding jagr makes us better right away and adds an element we lack.

go and sign him JG.
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I would love a Jagr reunion with a limited role on a one year deal.
 
Machinehead said:
Buchnevich had the highest p/60 on the team last year. I think he's got a way bigger ceiling than 40 points.
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I want to put some contex in here. The first quarter of the season a LOT of our players piled on points like they were being handed out like candy thanks to ridiculous shooting percentages that dropped substantially as the season progressed.
 
I get more going Stepan but boy that C depth stinks until the first rounders are ready or they make a deal
 
Vitto79 said:
I get more going Stepan but boy that C depth stinks until the first rounders are ready or they make a deal
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To be honest, I am not. I am more worried about forward depth -- especially regarding the 4th when Fast is hurt -- and being a bit square on the blueline. Shatty isn't overly mobile and Smith will be playing out of position. What shape will Staal be in?

I think our franchise depth is great, the franchise is in a really good position. The biggest issue we have is that LA and Chytil both are 18 y/o. We have a pretty big age gap between the young forward generation now on the roster and the new wave, JTM, Buch and Fast are what 21-24 and then there is nobody there are 19 and 20 (roughly).

I like Boo Nieves as a valuable depth forward. I really like Bereglazov and DeAngelo. I just don't think the loss of Stepan will hurt us that much.

We will play for it, but the key going forward is that we will have great mobility. Look at Chicago, LAK, Pittsburgh and Co, they have big issues looking 2-5 years down the line. We don't. Toronto, Edomonton, Buffalo and the likes can arise as the next wave. But while they have things we don't we have things they don't. Experience. Attractive location (save for Toronto), and so forth.
 
Yeah, some good concerns @Ola. I`m really worried about M. Staal conditioning as well, and how well will our new ELC guys doing when Fast is still out with injury? And Fast missed a lot of time this summer based on his injury - and he will need time to get back into shape for sure.

Hopefully our #1st draft pick is ready for NHL - and I`m positive about that so center depth will not be an issue.
 
Krams said:
I don't know about Buchnevich's ceiling, but it's not unreasonable to hope for 40 points this season given enough playing time IMO.
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40 is definitely attainable for a player with his skill set. I just hope he's given his fair chance to showcase himself.
 
Alluckks said:
Outside of a couple outlandish opinions (from the same nameless folks) no one really thinks his ceiling is that.

I think his ceiling is whatever his health allows for.
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I dunno. I am rooting for the kid but if he turned out to be a consistent 20-20 guy I wouldn't be upset. Those are 2nd line numbers these days. I'm expecting a 40ish point guy and hoping for a 50ish point guy. If we get that offensive output from him we will do great as a team this year and I think it allows Gorton to be more flexible in any trades he makes going forward.
 
Idlerlee said:
I want to put some contex in here. The first quarter of the season a LOT of our players piled on points like they were being handed out like candy thanks to ridiculous shooting percentages that dropped substantially as the season progressed.
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Guess which player led us in P/60 in the playoffs.

The answer is either funny or tragic. :D
 
Machinehead said:
Buchnevich had the highest p/60 on the team last year. I think he's got a way bigger ceiling than 40 points.
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Agreed. And the way he got those points was mostly very impressive – a huge % of his points were from top shelf snipes, crazy dangles to the net and/or gorgeous passes through traffic. It's not like he was riding shotgun and collecting garbage points, he was making things happen with highlight reel moves more often than not.
 
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