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Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part III: Day by Day

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silverfish said:
lmao you can't prorate +/-. You shouldn't even be using +/- to begin with.

Listen, I agree that Gelinas is likely AHL fodder, but it's not because his +/-. Make a better argument.
Click to expand...

Look, he prorated out to a -66 in the AHL but in the NHL last year he prorated out to a -12 and if you take his 6 games with the Avs in 2015-16 his +/- can be prorated to about a +26 if he was on the Avs all year

So IMO based on my in depth analysis in this post Gelinas is probably just a better player in the NHL than in the AHL

It is confirmed
 
Ola said:
What is "good on ice results"? Has he ever been on a team that has won a play-off series in the NHL? Has he ever been a plus player? He has played on some below avg teams, but why does his coaches never use him a lot? Most season he gets around 15-16 minutes of ice time, or 18 minutes for a team like Buffalo with huge issues.

Not a single team offered Cody Franson a NHL contract in 2012. He had already played 140 games but nobody wanted him. He has not been qualified numerous of times and has often had to wait until september to be resigned. His last contracts has been 2, 1, 1, 1 and 2 years as a UFA. Teams are desperate for RDs, I mean really desperate, here is a guy in his prime who you can get for 2-3m per, nobody is willing to even go THREE YEARS for him?

So its a fact that his coaches do not trust him one bit. His teams never wants to keep him. He has been a minus player most of his entire career. His teams never does well. I also think that his relative corsi sometimes has been bumped by him getting the few good shifts on some worthless teams where players around him has been terrible. In the end, lol, I kind of agree with you. He is maybe not as completely worthless as his career indicates. He is strong along the boards and good at stepping up at the blueline. He can't skate, has worthless gap control and can't pass the puck, which makes coaches not trust him and GMs shying away from him. But he has definitely never been a "good" NHLer, that was my point. He has always had huge issues in his game that also hurts his team a lot.

So perception of rel.corsi or whatever doesn't always equals reality either. Or he is another one of those long line of examples where every single team in the league -- all 30-31 of them desperate of a player in his position -- just completely fails to see what you guys can spot by just making a search at war-on-ice. Or?
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You even mentioning +/- makes me want to just not answer at all, but i'll give you something short anyway.

Between 13-17 he's a positive GF% RelTM and CF% RelTM player while also having over 6% more DZFO% then OZFO% (added this just because you like to talk about zone starts).

He also posted a solid 0.79 P/60 in that time frame, and ~9 iCorsi/60 all this 5v5.

Add that he's also been a very good PP guy over that same time frame with a 4.11 P/60, 2.52 P1/60 and a 20.93 iCorsi/60.

For some reason his coaches don't trust him, but his on ice results show that they should trust him.

Edit: Also, not sure why you need to "sound" so negative and degrading when disagreeing with stats, so unnecessary. It's possible to make an argument against stats without coming across as a complete tool, atleast i would hope so.
 
silverfish said:
lmao you can't prorate +/-. You shouldn't even be using +/- to begin with.

Listen, I agree that Gelinas is likely AHL fodder, but it's not because his +/-. Make a better argument.
Click to expand...

And why not?

In any case I've already made enough of an alternative argument. He skates like ****. He defends even worse and whatever offensive ability he once had has completely disappeared. He stinks--but the truth about him even when he was with the Devils--his best years they were always very careful about getting the right matchups for him--that is, when he wasn't being scratched altogether which happened with frequency.

Make some friends over at the Devils board. Ask them about him.
 
In his 27 games with the Coyotes by the way he averaged 11:34 ice time per game. Even they were afraid to play him.

Who's next? Jared Cowen? Scuderi?
 
Honestly, 11:30 a game for a rookie with upside isn't awful to me. If he can give us 13 mins a night after some NHL experience, with the top 2 pairs taking 22-23 mins each (and yes, we should be leaning on our top two pairs because Staal-X on the third is not gonna be phenomenal)...that's really all we would need from him.
 
Yeah, let's use TOI to judge a rookie (or anyone, Girardi comes to mind), seems like a great way to evaluate a player.
 
Pretty sure he's talking about Gelinas and that he said Coyotes instead of Avalanche accidentally

Because Gelinas played 27 games with the Avs and averaged 11:34 a game.
 
PMII said:
Pretty sure he's talking about Gelinas and that he said Coyotes instead of Avalanche accidentally

Because Gelinas played 27 games with the Avs and averaged 11:34 a game.
Click to expand...

I don't see anything wrong with Gelinas though. He will be replacing Chris Summers
 
TheTakedown said:
Staal got the 2nd lowest ATOI this past season. He blew off the media during break up day because of the news that he was getting a demotion. AV has made it clear that Skjei is getting a promotion. AV has also made it clear that there are "several young players that are going to get some good looks", and Bereglazov was the most recent signing at that point.

Top 4 is, without a doubt:
McDonagh-Shattenkirk
Skjei-Smith

The 3rd pairing is a combo of these players:
Staal, Bereglazov, DeAngelo, Pionk, Graves, Holden, Kampfer

Realistically, if you want to pull the prospects and fringe players out of that, you have:
Staal, Bereglazov, DeAngelo, Holden

Staal is, without a doubt, the weakest link here. I don't care if DeAngelo is a prospect, the kid has a talent level that is worlds above Staal's toolset. Bereglazov just went to a cup final in the worlds 2nd best league. Holden carried Staal last year with his 34 points while Staal put up a measly 10 points. Staal had the 2nd lowest CF% last season.

Again, Staal is the weakest link here. I know AV will give him a long leash, but the guys on this team are not fringe players like Clendening (supposedly) was--these are very talented players.

Speaking of Clendo, I am curious to see how he looks in Arizona this year.
Click to expand...
You said that Staal's would be the 7th man.

All you've done here is project what you want to happen onto the situation.

I don't think Staal will be in the top 4, like you said, all signs point to him not being on the top 4.


But if you think he's going to be on this team and healthy and not in the lineup, you're insane.
 
Why are we even talking about Gelinas? Regarding Deangelo, I think we'll see him play. I also think we're waiting for another trade to happen once Mika signs
 
ManUtdTobbe said:
You even mentioning +/- makes me want to just not answer at all, but i'll give you something short anyway.

Between 13-17 he's a positive GF% RelTM and CF% RelTM player while also having over 6% more DZFO% then OZFO% (added this just because you like to talk about zone starts).

He also posted a solid 0.79 P/60 in that time frame, and ~9 iCorsi/60 all this 5v5.

Add that he's also been a very good PP guy over that same time frame with a 4.11 P/60, 2.52 P1/60 and a 20.93 iCorsi/60.

For some reason his coaches don't trust him, but his on ice results show that they should trust him.

Edit: Also, not sure why you need to "sound" so negative and degrading when disagreeing with stats, so unnecessary. It's possible to make an argument against stats without coming across as a complete tool, atleast i would hope so.
Click to expand...

Please note that it's not only "his" coaches who don't trust him, neither does ONE single GM in the entire NHL.

Not sure what you refer to with the last paragraph, could you underline which part of my post is degrading? I just reread it and I was just listing a lot of facts. To be honest, I feel like I cannot even reply to a certain group without them blowing up because I -- mostly like ever single GM and coach in the NHL -- dont buy into certain extreme points they make. I think it was Silverfish who stated repeatedly that every time someone posted a graph at this place the poster was called a nerd. I went back a and checked every time the term nerd was used at this place and nobody had ever used it in that context.

Is it that horrible that people want to contextualalize some metrics used? Is that a personal attack in itself or what? Franson is one of those examples. Patrick Weinroch. Adam Clendenning.

I know about Fransons numbers, you don't have to quote them for me. He is what 29. Great size. Booming shot. Right hand shooting defensemen. His last contracts has been 2, 1, 1, 1 and 2 years. It's almost August and he is still unsigned. Having seen a lot of him, it's not hard to understand why. He of course belong in the league and should get a few mil, but he is and has always been a pretty subpar defender.

BTW +\- is of course pretty useful, you just need to know a lot about the background of the player in question. The only people who trash +/- are the ones who think there are stats that say it all and actually gives a complete picture of something. Cheechoo scored the most goals one year, was out of the league like 3 years later. Goals is a pretty good stat, if you want to know who is the best scorer goal totals gives you an indication. Cheechoo was very far from the best scorer. If you are a very good defender, you should at least once in a while be on the ice for more goals forward than against, maybe. Maybe not if you played for only worthless teams. I used references to it very briefly.

I remember when people at this place really hated Rozsival and Malik, but Malik lead the entire league in +/-. That's one example where I thought it was justifiable to refer to +/-. If these two were as effin horrible, how could they lead the league in +/-? Why where they you guys around back then? You would definitely have supports me with those two. Peter Popovic, Christian Backman, most claimed that these guys were the worst players in the league. They were good possession players. I've never seen any numbers, but I would bet anything on it.

Sometime a player just can't keep it together and has relatively many major breakdowns of the types that don't show in the big picture, but just costs you goals against while failing to capatilize offensively. When an entire team is plus but one player who is like minus 13 it does say something also.

I also think it's a pretty decent stat looking at units. To some extent hockey is something else than quantity, to some extent you also must just get the puck into the net and keep it out of your own net. I recon stats also considering shooting and saving percentage account for that, but so does +/-. Especially if you just easily want to see roughly how the units on the opposing teams are doing it can be telling to glance at their +/-.

I sometimes am a little interested in the other NY teams in pro sports. The Giants, Yankees and he Knicks. I know nothing -- and would never pretend to know anything -- about these sports. But I surf over to their websites and look at some stats. Who are doing well now, is there any "stars" on "my" teams etc. Who has the most rebounds? Who has the most homeruns? If someone did that to NHL.com and thought +/- had some kind of global league meaning it's of course worseless. But it can of course be of interest in some situations. To be honest -- I don't at all understand how it's supposed to be such a worseless stat that anyone using it shouldn't be replied to??? Do you care to explain that because I don't follow at all? I mean I've seen some twitter rants from guys against it but those guys really are as credible as Eklund when it comes to rumors. You can't trust everything you read on Twitter.

Edit: Lastly, I am sorry if I sound condecending. I will try to improve if you feel that way. Unnecessary by me.
 
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