Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part II: Anything Goes

[silverfish]

I get where both you and RangerBoy are coming from... It's not Stepan can't win faceoffs, it's that when he needs to win them he usually can't--this is a direct symptom of his lack of athleticism.

Did you watch the Ducks-Preds game 7 this playoffs? Kesler was out there for just about every draw in the last 5 minutes, and he won almost all of them (I only remember him losing two)... Kesler can grind his way into the opponents path right off a faceoff and win a puck by himself. Stepan cannot do this because he's not athletically gifted in that fashion.

it's the same with board play. Watch Kesler in a board battle. He wins the majority of the time. Stepan is an above average (not elite) skater, but in stationary situations, he's very slow and not strong on the puck.

This is what RB is talking about. I saw it very often with Stepan, it's a major problem, and it's indicative of his lack of athleticism. He's not a physical specimen like Grabner or Kreider.

Not a huge fan of your memory considering the Ducks/Preds series went 6 games, not 7 And Nashville also won that game, so, I'm not entirely certain what Kesler winning faceoffs in the last five minutes has to do with anything...

But since you brought it up, in game 6, in the last five minutes of the game, there were four faceoffs. Kesler took two of them. He won one, and he lost one. 16 seconds after he lost the first faceoff he took, Forsberg scored the full-ice empty netter. Kesler won the ensuing neutral ice faceoff, but the first shot on goal after that, 40 seconds later, was another empty net goal for Nashville. Kesler was still on the ice.

It's posts like these why I'm very wary of other people's memories. It's nothing personal, y'all just don't remember as well as you think you do.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20162017/PL030326.HTM

 

[NickyFotiu]

I'm not entirely certain I agree with the bolded. If you read the study I posted, it illustrated how likely a faceoff loss turns into a goal against within 20 seconds of the loss. It's easy to remember the clean losses that lead to goals against. It's hardter to remember the clean losses that don't lead to anything.

Even on these 'key' draws, or PP draws, Derek Stepan is going to win them 47% of the time. It's still a coin-flip. Do you want the 53% guy over the 47% guy? Sure, but over 100 faceoffs, Stepan is only losing 6 more than he won.

20 seconds is not the 15 second scenario I asked you about but if we lose the draw clean usually the other teams defensemen will clear the puck down to our end. Just us skating all the way back to our end to retrieve the puck and bring it back to the other teams blue line is going to take up much if not all of those 15 seconds.

 

[Mac n Gs]

You have to look at the scenario I asked Silver about. If we lose the offensive draw clean the opposing Dmen shoots the puck the length of the ice. Us losing the draw going back to get the puck in our own end then getting it back in to the offensive end to set up a goal all within 15 seconds is very unlikely.

It's basically a coin flip, but I'd opt to have Mika out there because he was our best faceoff guy. I'd still want Stepan on the ice, but that's a different part of the question that's not important right now.

What would be interesting to see is if someone broke down faceoffs by strength and score situation. A "weighted" faceoff so to speak. It probably won't correlate to anything (IMO), but it would be cool to see which players have a "clutch" faceoff percentage so to speak.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I get where both you and RangerBoy are coming from... It's not Stepan can't win faceoffs, it's that when he needs to win them he usually can't--this is a direct symptom of his lack of athleticism.

Did you watch the Ducks-Preds game 7 this playoffs? Kesler was out there for just about every draw in the last 5 minutes, and he won almost all of them (I only remember him losing two)... Kesler can grind his way into the opponents path right off a faceoff and win a puck by himself. Stepan cannot do this because he's not athletically gifted in that fashion.

it's the same with board play. Watch Kesler in a board battle. He wins the majority of the time. Stepan is an above average (not elite) skater, but in stationary situations, he's very slow and not strong on the puck.

This is what RB is talking about. I saw it very often with Stepan, it's a major problem, and it's indicative of his lack of athleticism. He's not a physical specimen like Grabner or Kreider.

Stepan could improve his faceoffs if he put more of his lower body in to his draws. Its hard to win draws clean consistently using just your arms. If he was as strong as Tim Kerr or had Popeye like forearms like Mike Bossy it might be different.

 

[NickyFotiu]

It's basically a coin flip, but I'd opt to have Mika out there because he was our best faceoff guy. I'd still want Stepan on the ice, but that's a different part of the question that's not important right now.

What would be interesting to see is if someone broke down faceoffs by strength and score situation. A "weighted" faceoff so to speak. It probably won't correlate to anything (IMO), but it would be cool to see which players have a "clutch" faceoff percentage so to speak.

On defensive draws I would be happy is Stepan just tied up the other centers stick. I would not need him to win the puck clean just do not lose it clean. On offensive draws in key late game situations you can not lose it clean no matter who our center is at that time. Your goal is to win it clean but losing it clean with 15 seconds left is likely game over.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

so the whole article and studies people constantly show...that QOC means nothing compared to QOT...only applies to Girardi, not to Stepan? Got it.

Have I ever said this?

 

[silverfish]

20 seconds is not the 15 second scenario I asked you about but if we lose the draw clean usually the other teams defensemen will clear the puck down to our end. Just us skating all the way back to our end to retrieve the puck and bring it back to the other teams blue line is going to take up much if not all of those 15 seconds.

I understand what you're saying, but it's not as big of an issue as you think it is. Stepan was a 46.4% offensive zone power play faceoff man last year. Meaning every 100 faceoffs, he's going to win 46 and lose 54. That's only 8 more times that we're chasing the puck and losing 15-20 seconds of PP time than the amount of times he's winning the draw, and the Rangers have control.

120-160 seconds of PP time lost every 100 offensive zone PP faceoffs. One full power play every 100 faceoffs. Stepan took 140 ozone pp faceoffs last year. 1.4 powerplays lost over the course of the season due to chasing pucks. On a PP that operated at a 20.2% clip last year, that's .28 goals lost over the entire season.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm not entirely certain I agree with the bolded. If you read the study I posted, it illustrated how likely a faceoff loss turns into a goal against within 20 seconds of the loss. It's easy to remember the clean losses that lead to goals against. It's hardter to remember the clean losses that don't lead to anything.

Even on these 'key' draws, or PP draws, Derek Stepan is going to win them 47% of the time. It's still a coin-flip. Do you want the 53% guy over the 47% guy? Sure, but over 100 faceoffs, Stepan is only losing 6 more than he won.

Ideally speaking, one draw lost that leads to a goal against that costs the game is one draw lost too many. Yes, there are other factors that go into the faceoff loss. Yes, there are other factors that lead to the goal against. But the center has the largest opportunity and responsibility to ensure that the other team never even gets the puck.

In the moment, the probability of the draw costing you or helping you doesn't matter much. It's about the faceoff that's immediately in front of the team.

So the real question becomes... do you make sure to acquire a player who is more likely to help you in faceoffs or not? How much emphasis do you put on it exactly? I think it could go either way, so I'm not inclined to be critical or praiseworthy if people (or a GM) want to focus on it.

 

[FJB]

Stepan's play was just very bleh this last year especially. There was no pep in his step.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The problem with Andersson is he was one of the oldest first time eligible players this year so he's going to hit 30 sooner than other players we could have drafted

So was Tavares

 

[NickyFotiu]

I understand what you're saying, but it's not as big of an issue as you think it is. Stepan was a 46.4% offensive zone power play faceoff man last year. Meaning every 100 faceoffs, he's going to win 46 and lose 54. That's only 8 more times that we're chasing the puck and losing 15-20 seconds of PP time than the amount of times he's winning the draw, and the Rangers have control.

120-160 seconds of PP time lost every 100 offensive zone PP faceoffs. One full power play every 100 faceoffs. Stepan took 140 ozone pp faceoffs last year. 1.4 powerplays lost over the course of the season due to chasing pucks. On a PP that operated at a 20.2% clip last year, that's .28 goals lost over the entire season.

Big issue...small issue. I can not say. All I will say is I usually prefer somebody not named Stepan to take our key faceoffs especially late in games. The strange thing is Stepan could be good at draws. He has the brains to figure out what works and doesn't work. This is weakness that he could improve with some adjustments and studying of film.

You brought up Pirri earlier. Our centers who have trouble with draws should have looked at Pirri and said if he can do it I can do it. If need be just ask for help.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Ideally speaking, one draw lost that leads to a goal against that costs the game is one draw lost too many. Yes, there are other factors that go into the faceoff loss. Yes, there are other factors that lead to the goal against. But the center has the largest opportunity and responsibility to ensure that the other team never even gets the puck.

In the moment, the probability of the draw costing you or helping you doesn't matter much. It's about the faceoff that's immediately in front of the team.

So the real question becomes... do you make sure to acquire a player who is more likely to help you in faceoffs or not? How much emphasis do you put on it exactly? I think it could go either way, so I'm not inclined to be critical or praiseworthy if people (or a GM) want to focus on it.

We have to look at players whole package. Faceoffs may be a part of that package but unless they are a specialist we have to look at many other factors. Zibs is pretty good on draws. He has a couple of different methods in his bag. I'd like to have a defensive player that was good on draws. With Boyle, Moore, and Oscar leaving that is a hole we might have to fill at some point.

 

[NickyFotiu]

The problem with Andersson is he was one of the oldest first time eligible players this year so he's going to hit 30 sooner than other players we could have drafted

By the start of the season Malkin is 31, Crosby is 30, Kessel is 30, Letang is 30. Should we assume Pitt should be looking to dump all of them for younger players?

 

[Tawnos]

We have to look at players whole package. Faceoffs may be a part of that package but unless they are a specialist we have to look at many other factors. Zibs is pretty good on draws. He has a couple of different methods in his bag. I'd like to have a defensive player that was good on draws. With Boyle, Moore, and Oscar leaving that is a hole we might have to fill at some point.

Well, I didn't mean acquiring a faceoff specialist. I just meant, how much weight to do you put on it when looking at players to acquire?

 

[DudMan28]

Well, I didn't mean acquiring a faceoff specialist. I just meant, how much weight to do you put on it when looking at players to acquire?

Jeff Halpern FTW!

Man, some of our early season roster's have contained some interesting players the past few years.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Well, I didn't mean acquiring a faceoff specialist. I just meant, how much weight to do you put on it when looking at players to acquire?

That is a fair question. I can not say for sure because it depends on how many other good faceoff guys we have. Right now we have Zibs, Hayes, and JT. Have to wait to see if DD makes the team. JT and Hayes should be working on their draws all offseason. I bet AV is wondering who he has take defensive faceoffs right now.

 

[bernmeister]

I get where both you and RangerBoy are coming from... It's not Stepan can't win faceoffs, it's that when he needs to win them he usually can't--this is a direct symptom of his lack of athleticism.

Did you watch the Ducks-Preds game 7 this playoffs? Kesler was out there for just about every draw in the last 5 minutes, and he won almost all of them (I only remember him losing two)... Kesler can grind his way into the opponents path right off a faceoff and win a puck by himself. Stepan cannot do this because he's not athletically gifted in that fashion.

it's the same with board play. Watch Kesler in a board battle. He wins the majority of the time. Stepan is an above average (not elite) skater, but in stationary situations, he's very slow and not strong on the puck.

This is what RB is talking about. I saw it very often with Stepan, it's a major problem, and it's indicative of his lack of athleticism. He's not a physical specimen like Grabner or Kreider.

gave Step more positive, glass if half full appraisal, saying defensively vs 'regular' guys he was a bit above average due to technique, what you guys say is high hockey IQ. I said vs some of the superior physical types, they could handle him to the point of domination

This playoffs, he was having softness as somebody said, issues w/regular types.

Just glad we have finally moved on.

 

[bernmeister]

have we identified what are the possible partners who will pay the most for McDonagh?

maybe we can narrow that list and then see what deals might work best.

I'm sure many don't want to go there, but I believe myself, Savant, RangerBoy and others would like to analyze and identify best scenarios.

til later

 

[TheTakedown]

Not a huge fan of your memory considering the Ducks/Preds series went 6 games, not 7 And Nashville also won that game, so, I'm not entirely certain what Kesler winning faceoffs in the last five minutes has to do with anything...

But since you brought it up, in game 6, in the last five minutes of the game, there were four faceoffs. Kesler took two of them. He won one, and he lost one. 16 seconds after he lost the first faceoff he took, Forsberg scored the full-ice empty netter. Kesler won the ensuing neutral ice faceoff, but the first shot on goal after that, 40 seconds later, was another empty net goal for Nashville. Kesler was still on the ice.

It's posts like these why I'm very wary of other people's memories. It's nothing personal, y'all just don't remember as well as you think you do.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20162017/PL030326.HTM

Sorry, I fat fingered the number of games, but i thought Kesler had a monster series meanwhile the team around him couldn't do ****. I have to go check stats for specific games (usually I just let you do it cause you're more ready with them ) But either way that's what I recall, i could be wrong, but I didn't intend on this being a Kesler conversation.

Stepan was substantially weaker on the puck this year, and it showed in his possession stats. As far as quality of teammate, Kreider, Nash, Zucc, and Vesey were Stepan's most common 5v5 linemates. With the exception of Nash (who suffers from small sample size + injuries this past year), Everyone was dragged down by Stepan whenever they were on the ice with him... Vesey has some horrible stats by himself too though, so I'm going to consider him an unknown right now...

Defensively Stepan's GA60 stats are great regardless of teammate, but offensively he was a black hole--his linemates did most of the work this past season, and it shows in the stats

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?season=2016-17&sit=5v5&pid=1352&withagainst=true

 

[silverfish]

Sorry, I fat fingered the number of games, but i thought Kesler had a monster series meanwhile the team around him couldn't do ****. I have to go check stats for specific games (usually I just let you do it cause you're more ready with them ) But either way that's what I recall, i could be wrong, but I didn't intend on this being a Kesler conversation.

Stepan was substantially weaker on the puck this year, and it showed in his possession stats. As far as quality of teammate, Kreider, Nash, Zucc, and Vesey were Stepan's most common 5v5 linemates. With the exception of Nash (who suffers from small sample size + injuries this past year), Everyone was dragged down by Stepan whenever they were on the ice with him... Vesey has some horrible stats by himself too though, so I'm going to consider him an unknown right now...

Defensively Stepan's GA60 stats are great regardless of teammate, but offensively he was a black hole--his linemates did most of the work this past season, and it shows in the stats

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?season=2016-17&sit=5v5&pid=1352&withagainst=true

I think you're reading that website wrong.

In terms of SA%, Kreider & Nash are the only two skaters to play with Stepan more than 100 minutes, and see their SA% increase away from Stepan. Everyone else goes down.

However, this could be far more likely because of Kreider than it is Stepan, as over 50% of Stepan's 5v5 TOI last year was with Kreider.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Please God, some real news.....

 

[Uglybstrd]

have we identified what are the possible partners who will pay the most for McDonagh?

maybe we can narrow that list and then see what deals might work best.

I'm sure many don't want to go there, but I believe myself, Savant, RangerBoy and others would like to analyze and identify best scenarios.

til later

I would like to go there

I dont post here often, but I log into this forum almost every day. And you are among my favourite posters, along with RB, ODC, Ola and more. Your trade proposals can sometimes be.... creative .... they might be unrealistic, but they gives food for thought. I rather read them than several pages about faceoffs

I'm not against trading McD. Some people are acting like we're gonna give him away. But if we can upgrade our 1C with a young up and coming player like MacK, Draisatl we have to explore it.

 

[TheTakedown]

I think you're reading that website wrong.

In terms of SA%, Kreider & Nash are the only two skaters to play with Stepan more than 100 minutes, and see their SA% increase away from Stepan. Everyone else goes down.

However, this could be far more likely because of Kreider than it is Stepan, as over 50% of Stepan's 5v5 TOI last year was with Kreider.

was strictly using CF%

 

[Mac n Gs]

was strictly using CF%

They're the same thing

 

[TheTakedown]

They're the same thing

I know how corsi works... SF reference Shots against, that's not the stat I was looking at particularly