Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part II: Anything Goes

[Gardner McKay]

Derek Stepan won 49.3% of his d-zone draws last year. 46th in the league. Tavares was worse. So was Malkin. Jumbo. Monahan. Backstrom. Crosby. Barkov. Jarnkrok. E. Staal. Matthews. Scheifele. McDavid. RNH. Eichel. Galchenyuk.

Conversely, Brandon Pirri won 61.5% of his d-zone draws last year, but I don't see you clamoring to bring Pirri back.

http://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?team=all&zone=def

Because Pirri sucks.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

The problem with Andersson is he was one of the oldest first time eligible players this year so he's going to hit 30 sooner than other players we could have drafted

By months? As long as he becomes a good player, who cares?


Auston Matthews is the thing for his draft class, maybe the Leafs should've taken someone else!

The fear of players being 30 years old around here is hilarious.

 

[SA16]

It's funny because if we didn't use a base 10 numerical system nobody would care about a player turning 30 but it's a nice round number for people to start complaining about

 

[silverfish]

Because Pirri sucks.

Thank you for proving my point. Being:

Bad player good at faceoffs? Who cares.
Good player bad at faceoffs? Who cares.

Good player who I think is bad is bad at faceoffs? He sucks
Bad player who I think is good is good at faceoffs? He's a good fourth-liner for d-zone draws.

Faceoff% serves no purpose but making an argument when there is no argument to back up your terrible opinion, and garbage posting like:

If Andersson can win one defensive zone face off,he is already an upgrade over Stepan in that area.

Also: Pirri > Vesey.

Come at me, bros.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't remember Stepan not backchecking, but there are numerous examples of him being uncharacterically soft on the puck in the playoffs.

 

[Fugazy]

I don't remember Stepan not backchecking, but there are numerous examples of him being uncharacterically soft on the puck in the playoffs.

He just never seemed to be part of the action and not picking his spots wisely.

 

[Trxjw]

Do I even want to askwhy face-off percentage has no purpose?

 

[Tawnos]

Do I even want to askwhy face-off percentage has no purpose?

It has no correlation to possession metrics.

And that's fine. You need players who can win a BIG faceoff (something that Zibanejad is pretty good at actually). The better their faceoff percentage, the more likely they are to win that critical draw.

It's one of those things that's a misapplication of statistics. Overall possession is not the reason we care about faceoffs.

 

[silverfish]

Do I even want to askwhy face-off percentage has no purpose?

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

From the link...

At even strength, it takes 101.6 faceoff wins to account for a +1 goal differential due solely to faceoffs. 60.1 in the off/def zone, 163.8 in the neutral zone.

Using the above, & Stepan's d-zone faceoff stats last year (49.3%), won 244 faceoffs, and lost 251 faceoffs. Using the 60.1 baseline for wins leading to a goal, Derek Stepan accounted for 4.06 goals for, and 4.18 goals against, for a differential of -0.12 over an entire season.

Actually, this is a little off. The numbers above are all situations d-zone draws. Stepan was 52.5% d-zone draw player during even strength. The numbers need to be juiced a little, but do you see the overall point I'm making, at least?

We have a tendency to remember that one lost faceoff that led to a goal against (a lot more than the won faceoff that lead to a goal for), and totally disregard the won or lost faceoffs that didn't amount to anything, which happen far, far more often.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Thank you for proving my point. Being:

Bad player good at faceoffs? Who cares.
Good player bad at faceoffs? Who cares.

Good player who I think is bad is bad at faceoffs? He sucks
Bad player who I think is good is good at faceoffs? He's a good fourth-liner for d-zone draws.

Faceoff% serves no purpose but making an argument when there is no argument to back up your terrible opinion, and garbage posting like:



Also: Pirri > Vesey.

Come at me, bros.

Faceoffs are not everything. They are not the difference between a bad player and a good player.

Okay you are the coach not AV. We are down by a goal with 15 seconds left. We just forced a faceoff in the offensive zone and called timeout. Is Stepan the guy you turn to for this key faceoff?

 

[Ori]

Seems to be a theme with these titles. Or is there?

Back to the fantasies of us acquiring MacKinnon/Duchene/whoever.

He stares back at you!

https://www.nhl.com/player/matt-duchene-8475168

Why would Avalanche start tanking and move their promising centers?

 

[Trxjw]

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

From the link...

At even strength, it takes 101.6 faceoff wins to account for a +1 goal differential due solely to faceoffs. 60.1 in the off/def zone, 163.8 in the neutral zone.

Using the above, & Stepan's d-zone faceoff stats last year (49.3%), won 244 faceoffs, and lost 251 faceoffs. Using the 60.1 baseline for wins leading to a goal, Derek Stepan accounted for 4.06 goals for, and 4.18 goals against, for a differential of -0.12 over an entire season.

Actually, this is a little off. The numbers above are all situations d-zone draws. Stepan was 52.5% d-zone draw player during even strength. The numbers need to be juiced a little, but do you see the overall point I'm making, at least?

We have a tendency to remember that one lost faceoff that led to a goal against (a lot more than the won faceoff that lead to a goal for), and totally disregard the won or lost faceoffs that didn't amount to anything, which happen far, far more often.

Ah. So over the course of a season, they're largely meaningless. That's fine. However, if given the choice, I doubt you'd find many people who would take a 48% chance over a 52% chance.

 

[Irishguy42]

Faceoffs are important in single game sample sizes. Or even for a single period.

They are less important in sample sizes that span a season or more,

 

[silverfish]

Faceoffs are not everything. They are not the difference between a bad player and a good player.

Okay you are the coach not AV. We are down by a goal with 15 seconds left. We just forced a faceoff in the offensive zone and called timeout. Is Stepan the guy you turn to for this key faceoff?

No, I'd go to Pirri

Also, If I'm the coach, I very much doubt that we're ever down a goal

Ah. So over the course of a season, they're largely meaningless. That's fine. However, if given the choice, I doubt you'd find many people who would take a 48% chance over a 52% chance.

Right. I'm looking at the larger macro-sense (season) over the micro-sense (a single event).

Also considering how important wingers can be on faceoffs, I have a hard time putting all the good/bad on just the person hovering over the dot, but that's a totally different conversation.

 

[NickyFotiu]

No, I'd go to Pirri

Also, If I'm the coach, I very much doubt that we're ever down a goal

In that situation Pirri would be a good choice but if faceoffs are not important why would you go with your 4th line center over your first line center?

 

[NickyFotiu]

No, I'd go to Pirri

Also, If I'm the coach, I very much doubt that we're ever down a goal



Right. I'm looking at the larger macro-sense (season) over the micro-sense (a single event).

Also considering how important wingers can be on faceoffs, I have a hard time putting all the good/bad on just the person hovering over the dot, but that's a totally different conversation.

That is actually a part I often hoped Stepan would change in his game. He would lose too many draws clean instead of recognizing his weakness and just tying up the other centers stick so his wingers could come fight for the puck.

 

[Ori]

Well, I think it`s just fine with an old joke - let`s be honest here!
Matt Duchene is like, what? Rangers, of course!

 

[kovazub94]

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

From the link...

At even strength, it takes 101.6 faceoff wins to account for a +1 goal differential due solely to faceoffs. 60.1 in the off/def zone, 163.8 in the neutral zone.

Using the above, & Stepan's d-zone faceoff stats last year (49.3%), won 244 faceoffs, and lost 251 faceoffs. Using the 60.1 baseline for wins leading to a goal, Derek Stepan accounted for 4.06 goals for, and 4.18 goals against, for a differential of -0.12 over an entire season.

Actually, this is a little off. The numbers above are all situations d-zone draws. Stepan was 52.5% d-zone draw player during even strength. The numbers need to be juiced a little, but do you see the overall point I'm making, at least?

We have a tendency to remember that one lost faceoff that led to a goal against (a lot more than the won faceoff that lead to a goal for), and totally disregard the won or lost faceoffs that didn't amount to anything, which happen far, far more often.

Face-off is a relatively important aspect of a game but it is currently measured or presented in a meaningless manner. Bolded really kind of proves it because I dare anyone to call Stepan good at face-offs if they actually watched him.

Face-offs should be measured as a PP / PK metric, plus the last 5 min of the game. (the last part is my subjective view).

 

[silverfish]

In that situation Pirri would be a good choice but if faceoffs are not important why would you go with your 4th line center over your first line center?

Macro: Not that important
Micro: I'd take the higher FO% player if all I needed to do was win a faceoff

Sort of like MacTavish taking those faceoffs over Messier, no?

 

[NickyFotiu]

Macro: Not that important
Micro: I'd take the higher FO% player if all I needed to do was win a faceoff

Sort of like MacTavish taking those faceoffs over Messier, no?

Micro: Winning the draw is not all you have to do but losing the draw clean likely means game over.

I agree that it is not as important for the span of the whole game but there are several key draws during games in both offensive and defensive zones that can become game changers.

Your point about MacTavish shows how important they can be. Craig was a specialist at that time while Mess is one of the 30 best players all time.

It really frustrates me when we lose a PP draw clean because it not only runs 15 seconds off the PP but in the playoffs we had trouble even getting the puck back in to the offensive end.

 

[Mac n Gs]

How does losing the draw likely mean game over? Is it won cleanly? Does a winger get in the labe right away? Does the dman even get a shot off or on net? Does the goalie make a save and smother the puck? There's so many variables that go into these situations.

And I'm not saying I'd rather have the 48% faceoff guy in that scenario, I'm just saying there's a lot more to it than just the faceoff.

 

[silverfish]

Micro: Winning the draw is not all you have to do but losing the draw clean likely means game over.

I agree that it is not as important for the span of the whole game but there are several key draws during games in both offensive and defensive zones that can become game changers.

Your point about MacTavish shows how important they can be. Craig was a specialist at that time while Mess is one of the 30 best players all time.

It really frustrates me when we lose a PP draw clean because it not only runs 15 seconds off the PP but in the playoffs we had trouble even getting the puck back in to the offensive end.

I'm not entirely certain I agree with the bolded. If you read the study I posted, it illustrated how likely a faceoff loss turns into a goal against within 20 seconds of the loss. It's easy to remember the clean losses that lead to goals against. It's hardter to remember the clean losses that don't lead to anything.

Even on these 'key' draws, or PP draws, Derek Stepan is going to win them 47% of the time. It's still a coin-flip. Do you want the 53% guy over the 47% guy? Sure, but over 100 faceoffs, Stepan is only losing 6 more than he won.

 

[TheTakedown]

Derek Stepan won 49.3% of his d-zone draws last year. 46th in the league. Tavares was worse. So was Malkin. Jumbo. Monahan. Backstrom. Crosby. Barkov. Jarnkrok. E. Staal. Matthews. Scheifele. McDavid. RNH. Eichel. Galchenyuk.

Conversely, Brandon Pirri won 61.5% of his d-zone draws last year, but I don't see you clamoring to bring Pirri back.

http://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?team=all&zone=def

I get where both you and RangerBoy are coming from... It's not Stepan can't win faceoffs, it's that when he needs to win them he usually can't--this is a direct symptom of his lack of athleticism.

Did you watch the Ducks-Preds game 7 this playoffs? Kesler was out there for just about every draw in the last 5 minutes, and he won almost all of them (I only remember him losing two)... Kesler can grind his way into the opponents path right off a faceoff and win a puck by himself. Stepan cannot do this because he's not athletically gifted in that fashion.

it's the same with board play. Watch Kesler in a board battle. He wins the majority of the time. Stepan is an above average (not elite) skater, but in stationary situations, he's very slow and not strong on the puck.

This is what RB is talking about. I saw it very often with Stepan, it's a major problem, and it's indicative of his lack of athleticism. He's not a physical specimen like Grabner or Kreider.

 

[NickyFotiu]

How does losing the draw likely mean game over? Is it won cleanly? Does a winger get in the labe right away? Does the dman even get a shot off or on net? Does the goalie make a save and smother the puck? There's so many variables that go into these situations.

And I'm not saying I'd rather have the 48% faceoff guy in that scenario, I'm just saying there's a lot more to it than just the faceoff.

You have to look at the scenario I asked Silver about. If we lose the offensive draw clean the opposing Dmen shoots the puck the length of the ice. Us losing the draw going back to get the puck in our own end then getting it back in to the offensive end to set up a goal all within 15 seconds is very unlikely.

Okay you are the coach not AV. We are down by a goal with 15 seconds left. We just forced a faceoff in the offensive zone and called timeout. Is Stepan the guy you turn to for this key faceoff?

 

[Mac n Gs]

I get where both you and RangerBoy are coming from... It's not Stepan can't win faceoffs, it's that when he needs to win them he usually can't--this is a direct symptom of his lack of athleticism.

Did you watch the Ducks-Preds game 7 this playoffs? Kesler was out there for just about every draw in the last 5 minutes, and he won almost all of them (I only remember him losing two)... Kesler can grind his way into the opponents path right off a faceoff and win a puck by himself. Stepan cannot do this because he's not athletically gifted in that fashion.

it's the same with board play. Watch Kesler in a board battle. He wins the majority of the time. Stepan is an above average (not elite) skater, but in stationary situations, he's very slow and not strong on the puck.

This is what RB is talking about. I saw it very often with Stepan, it's a major problem, and it's indicative of his lack of athleticism. He's not a physical specimen like Grabner or Kreider.

Prove it. I'd say that to the rest of the post, but some of the things you said are laughable and not worth the effort going over