Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Off-season Part I

[SA16]

you literally in your last post suggested that chytil fow percentage would account for .4 more fow per game if his percentage went up. are you going to keep playing so dense that if chytil was better on draws he wouldnt be taking more and as such would be winning more draws per game like the other players mentioned? really? what are playing these kind of dumb games? and if he could take more draws he would get more 5v5 time rather than just hopping out there on a live change while play is going on?

also your comment about zib is better than him at draws is pretty weak based on the fact the team uses zib on his "strong" side for important draws and literally turned to rooney and goodrow as lh centermen to take draws on the otherside of the ice. that isnt a debate, we watched that happen all season and especially in the playoffs. if chytil could win draws at even 50% clip his 5v5 ice time would go up substantially simply bc he would be on the ice more tasked to take faceoffs.

that was the topic of the original post that you replied to that started this: chytil's poor faceoff play affecting his 5v5 ice time deployment based on what the coaching staff did this year.

stop acting like an accountant who only stares at and manipulates numbers and doesnt know something about hockey and deployment...

If Chytil was better on faceoffs he would not get more ice time and would not take many more per game. For him to do either of those things would require him to play higher than the third line, play on the PK, or have a more important PP role. There is almost zero correlation between FO% and TOI at 5v5 among players with 200 faceoffs taken. Oddly enough, it actually was a marginally indirect correlation this year. In fact, the group of players under 45% FO% averaged more 5v5 ice time than the group of players above 55%.

All of Hayes, Thompson, Stutzle, Barbashev, Mercer, Hughes, Dach had FO% of 42.2% or lower at 5v5. They all played at least 13.4 mins (Chytil 11.7). 13.4 mins at 5v5 is more than Bergeron, J. Staal, Toews, Carter, (0.1 less than ROR), Barkov, Dvorak all of whom were 55% or better.

The "Strong Side" draw thing is one of the biggest galaxy brain things coaches do. They'll have a far inferior player take the draw just because he'll win it to the boards instead of the middle. All this does is cause the team to lose the draw more often.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Friedman mentioning Malkin to NYR on Rupp’s show. I would take him on a short term reasonable AAV deal. It would allow us to keep the kids. Drury clearly exploring every option

I know he's not what he used to be and most would hate it because he's such a Penguin but I'm very intrigued by Malkin. I know he's looking for big money which is why he's on the outs with Pitt but maybe he leaves and is willing to sign for less somewhere else? Who knows. But Malkin on a 1 year deal for like 4m or something would be pretty awesome.

 

[SA16]

Forget linemates and analytics and all of that. Just look at raw numbers alone and it tells you the story.

2020-21 Chytil 21 years old 8 G 14 A 22 pts in 41 GP, ATOI 13:14, 0 power play points.

2020-21 Dubois 22 years old 9 G 12 A 21 pts in 46 GP, ATOI 15:02, 6 PPP

Then in 21-22 Chytil plays 67 games, and somehow averages less time on ice than he did the year before (13:11) and his numbers are identical in 26 more games (8-14-22). He has 1 PPP, an assist. A regression, until the playoffs.

Dubois, on the other hand, increases his ice time by nearly 4 minutes per game to 18:55, scores 15 PPG on WPG's top unit. He goes 28-32-60.

How about instead of trading Chytil PLUS additional assets (or wasting Kakko on Dubois and keeping Chytil at 13 minutes per game), we just give Chytil 18:55 of ice time and some power play usage and see what he does.

Yes, I know Dubois had previous years of 48, 61, and 49 pts - in each of those years, he averaged more than 16:30 of ice per game. There's no way to know what Chytil will do unless he gets the run beyond a couple of games. I just don't understand why we would trade Kakko for a Chytil who gets more ice time...

That is the fluke Chytil season where not a thing in his profile was sustainable. Huge sh% and point contribution on the ice and such. 2021 Dubois put up those numbers with almost career low/unsustainably low numbers in most of the variance based stats.

 

[RangerBoy]

Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek believe the Rangers will qualify Georgiev. Why wouldn't the Rangers qualify Georgiev? $2,650,000. That is the reason. They were discussing the goaltending market. Marek brought up the Rangers and Sharks. Georgiev and the Sharks three goalies. They don't know the inner workings of the Rangers situation. They bring up these players and situations. The math doesn't work.

I saw Elliotte last night on Rupp's podcast. Friedman said a few agents told him the money will dry up fast. The big guys are getting paid. Kadri. Gaudreau. Forsberg. The rest of them are in for a rude awakening.

One of Rupp' co-hosts. The guy from Pittsburgh is a total douchebag. The Italian guy with Satriale's Pork Store shirt. No surprise. He has the Rangers pursuing Gaudreau. Really?

Copp wants a big money deal. Is that deal there for him? He took short-term deals in Winnipeg. He wants to get paid. The market may not be there for him.

Stevie Y doesn't sound like he is in a rush to speed up the rebuild. He sign Larkin. He will probably look to trade Bertuzzi. One year rental.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Panarin-Nieves-Kravtsov
Kreider-Zibanejad-Lafreniere
Chytil-Malkin-Kakko

SYNERGY!

 

[EdJovanovski]

 

[NYR Viper]

Malkin was battling injuries all year and was still putting up numbers. I'd bet on him being productive for, at least, another 2 years. I'd be interested if they could make a short term deal work.

In saying that, I'm still more interested in getting Copp locked in at a reasonable number like $5.25m and then locking in Motte on a longer term, lower cap hit deal and then perusing the buyouts/leftovers for another 4th liner

 

[Bruner4329]

This whole Chytil discussion on face offs is ridiculous. Those that say its not important or would not be noticeable if he took more based on percentage aren't paying attention. There are lots of times when he is on the ice he doesn't take them one of the wings do and other times in crucial situation they send out another center (Zibs or Goodrow) to take the draw. That alone speaks to his inefficiency

 

[Machinehead]

Fox knows what that's like. He should have had like 70 in 55 last year.

 

[Thirty One]

One of Rupp' co-hosts. The guy from Pittsburgh is a total douchebag.

Aren't they all?

 

[SA16]

This whole Chytil discussion on face offs is ridiculous. Those that say its not important or would not be noticeable if he took more based on percentage aren't paying attention. There are lots of times when he is on the ice he doesn't take them one of the wings do and other times in crucial situation they send out another center (Zibs or Goodrow) to take the draw. That alone speaks to his inefficiency

Why does it matter which player on the line wins the faceoff? If Goodrow, or whoever, is on his line and can win 50% of them then why do you need to acquire a better center who can win 50% of them? Goodrow can take the faceoffs and still play wing on the shift.

 

[Savant]

Malkin was battling injuries all year and was still putting up numbers. I'd bet on him being productive for, at least, another 2 years. I'd be interested if they could make a short term deal work.

In saying that, I'm still more interested in getting Copp locked in at a reasonable number like $5.25m and then locking in Motte on a longer term, lower cap hit deal and then perusing the buyouts/leftovers for another 4th liner

Malkin isn’t exactly going to get healthier.

 

[rangers1314]

Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek believe the Rangers will qualify Georgiev. Why wouldn't the Rangers qualify Georgiev? $2,650,000. That is the reason. They were discussing the goaltending market. Marek brought up the Rangers and Sharks. Georgiev and the Sharks three goalies. They don't know the inner workings of the Rangers situation. They bring up these players and situations. The math doesn't work.

I saw Elliotte last night on Rupp's podcast. Friedman said a few agents told him the money will dry up fast. The big guys are getting paid. Kadri. Gaudreau. Forsberg. The rest of them are in for a rude awakening.

One of Rupp' co-hosts. The guy from Pittsburgh is a total douchebag. The Italian guy with Satriale's Pork Store shirt. No surprise. He has the Rangers pursuing Gaudreau. Really?

Copp wants a big money deal. Is that deal there for him? He took short-term deals in Winnipeg. He wants to get paid. The market may not be there for him.

Stevie Y doesn't sound like he is in a rush to speed up the rebuild. He sign Larkin. He will probably look to trade Bertuzzi. One year rental.

Friedman also said today he thinks NYR are trying to bring back Strome. Strome wants to stay. Issue is term.

 

[bbny]

Friedman also said today he thinks NYR are trying to bring back Strome. Strome wants to stay. Issue is term.

Would have to guess Strome wants 6-7 years and Rangers only want 4-5.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Panarin-Nieves-Kravtsov
Kreider-Zibanejad-Lafreniere
Chytil-Malkin-Kakko

How could you split up Kreider and Boo ???

 

[Machinehead]

How could you split up Kreider and Boo ???

They lost synergy

 

[Chaels Arms]

Friedman also said today he thinks NYR are trying to bring back Strome. Strome wants to stay. Issue is term.

I am unfortunately resigned that Strome is going to be re-signed. It just makes too much sense. He is well liked in the lockerroom, is essentially the personal center of the highest paid player on the team and really wants to just continue riding this gravy train where he can play professional pond hockey in the NHL and never be held accountable in any manner. My only hope is Drury at least recognizes this and gets him at a significant discount.

 

[Chaels Arms]

In a weird way does a player like Malkin actually increase in value in the current CBA regime where a team can probably LTIR him for whatever nagging injury is bothering him at the time for large swaths of the regular season and have him come back fresh and ready to dominate in the playoffs?

 

[nyrage]

I'm always amazed at how bad we've been at face-offs. What we need is to have a retired player that was great at it them come in and give the guys situational tips. It's not something that is practiced. You tweak as you go.

This sounds nuts, but I would win 80% or more of my draws in amateur leagues. I bet most of those dopes didn't even give it much thought. A lot of it is hand-eye coordination, timing, positioning, quickness, guessing (and setting people up for future draws), and a bit of cheating. There are many different kinds of draws and directions to go with the puck depending on the situation. There's an art-form to it that I really appreciated.

I played against a guy that would probably win 95% of his draws. He was that good. Most of his wins were clean, too. He would beat me almost every time and I was supposed to great at it. I asked him to teach me his main move after a game once. He took it as a great compliment since no one ever talked about face-offs. It was really an economy of motion that allowed him to be quicker than everyone else. I didn't like his move for me, but at least I learned to combat his draw going forward and tie it up most of the time.

Our guys can improve, but they have to have the desire to improve and work at it. A lot of it is a game of mental chess. Sometimes getting an outside perspective from a proven guy can really help someone that is probably stuck with what they do.

That said, winning a draw is great, but if we can't clear a puck after getting it in the defensive zone or if we don't shoot after winning a draw in the offensive zone, then it won't matter much. We definitely have other warts in our game.

I am unfortunately resigned that Strome is going to be re-signed. It just makes too much sense. He is well liked in the lockerroom, is essentially the personal center of the highest paid player on the team and really wants to just continue riding this gravy train where he can play professional pond hockey in the NHL and never be held accountable in any manner. My only hope is Drury at least recognizes this and gets him at a significant discount.

God I hope not. We need to strengthen the defensive acumen and effort on that line. We'll continue to get eaten alive.

 

[EdJovanovski]

How could you split up Kreider and Boo ???

Does Nieves even play hockey anymore? His eliteprospects page says he hasn't played anywhere the last 2 seasons lol

 

[MrAlmost]

I hate the idea of Malkin, PLD or Strome on this team. Strome would be the worst, of course. However, I also firmly believe that these hack f***ing reporters and "insiders" just throw our name at every player for the clicks. It happens every year and every year we sign none of them and this board gives them exactly what they want. 50 pages plus of talking about their horseshit rumor.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

That is the fluke Chytil season where not a thing in his profile was sustainable. Huge sh% and point contribution on the ice and such. 2021 Dubois put up those numbers with almost career low/unsustainably low numbers in most of the variance based stats.

Dubois shot 11.8% in 2020-21. He shot 12% in 2022. He just got more PPG, more ice time, and took more shots.

Last year, Chytil's shooting % was 5.9. That seems low and like a solid buy-low candidate to me, considering he sat at 8.3-12.3% the previous three seasons.

Not sure what you're referring to here.

 

[I Eat Crow]

I'm ready to say f*** it and sign Malkin and trade for a center elsewhere. You can go over the cap by 10% over the summer. Alternate LTIR'ing Malkin amd Goodrow and bring then both back for the playoffs. Tampa and Vegas cheat. Do it before the loophole is closed after the new CBA passes in three years.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Based & Malkin-pilled

 

[SA16]

Dubois shot 11.8% in 2020-21. He shot 12% in 2022. He just got more PPG, more ice time, and took more shots.

Last year, Chytil's shooting % was 5.9. That seems low and like a solid buy-low candidate to me, considering he sat at 8.3-12.3% the previous three seasons.

Not sure what you're referring to here.

2021 Chytil - 10.51 on ice shooting percentage. Next best in his career is 7.51
2021 Chytil - 81.5 Individual Points Percentage. Next best in his career is 68.9%. (That is ~McDavid level)
2021 Chytil - 0.71 secondary assists/60. Next best in his career was 0.38 (this past year)

A lot of pucks were going on with him on the ice, even if he wasn't the one taking the shot, and he was involved in on way more of them than normal.

You're also looking at the wrong year. His individual sh% in 2020-2021 was 10.5%. This past year was 5.9%.