Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Off-season Part I

[DanielBrassard]

Does the fact that Hunt played a lot with Panarin explain this?

RAPM is supposed to account for teammates/usage. Hunt's defensive impact has always been strong when he's been in the lineup as well even on Arizona. So I don't think so.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I see this and I raise you:

View attachment 563529

Lol get rid of Kakko before his value tanks!

His rookie season was so bad that is overshadows his impacts the past two years. Thankfully that seems to have been him just not being up to NHL speed.

 

[Ola]

Does anyone have exactly what Mollie said regarding Motte in that column yesterday?

For giggles, I'll take a guess at what the extension is going to look like.

5 Years/1.9AAV. NTC for the first 2 years, modified (5 or 10 NTC) for the final 3.

Plus 1

 

[bleedblue94]

Lol get rid of Kakko before his value tanks!

His rookie season was so bad that is overshadows his impacts the past two years. Thankfully that seems to have been him just not being up to NHL speed.

you're assuming the rest of the league doesnt know/see what we have seen.

his value has tanked...

 

[DanielBrassard]

you're assuming the rest of the league doesnt know/see what we have seen.

his value has tanked...

I think tanked is a strong word, it's been diminished without a doubt though.

 

[rangers1314]

Matt Murley, former player, is saying its Jim Montgomery to Boston.

 

[bleedblue94]

I think tanked is a strong word, it's been diminished without a doubt though.

i mean it has tanked from being the clear 2oa pick that was in conversations for going 1oa over jack hughes.

if you traded him today for a draft pick you arent even getting a top 10 pick back. that is tanked value...

 

[bobbop]

The Cap would be 93.5m today if it weren’t for the MOU signed during the pandemic.

HRR is reported to pass 5.2bn this season.

Upper level:
(5,200,000,000 x 50% / 32) x 115% = 93.5m

The cap will take a huge leap in 2-3 years. There have been discussions about smoothing out the increase and starting the increase sooner than later. Definitely something to watch.

 

[Thirty One]

The cap will take a huge leap in 2-3 years. There have been discussions about smoothing out the increase and starting the increase sooner than later. Definitely something to watch.

What would be the motivation from the teams to agree to this?

 

[Trxjw]

I agree that a PLD trade could be the next Zibanejad deal. In the sense that we could very well end up making the same mistake the Senators did by giving up on a young player for someone who is more established.

I think we'll really regret moving him. Would much rather see us go with Copp and let Fil take over as he grows. If the team is worried about a long term commitment and the cap implications with Copp, then finding a shorter stop gap works as well.

We keep clamoring for the kids to take steps forward. Yet now that we had all 3 of our young forwards level up in the post season as a unit, we can't wait to break them up or ship them out for a guy who could very well use us as a pit stop on his way to Montreal.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I see this and I raise you:

View attachment 563529

I see this and I raise you:

 

[JimmyG89]

What would be the motivation from the teams to agree to this?

The teams against the cap will be asking for it to happen. The teams that are budget teams will push back against it.

I just hope this doesn't mean a re-opening of the CBA in order to address this. Once that thing gets opened back up, could mean a can of worms for the league. Any threat of a stoppage would be killer for the momentum the league has built with the new TV deals.

 

[SA16]

the issue isnt having the kid line as the "third line"

that line of thinking is so archaic in today's game. it's not top 6 and bottom six anymore, it is top 9 and your 4th line. the issue we have is our deployment of our "third line" and I believe a lot of that has to do with the issues on the zib and strome lines where almost no one on this team could win a faceoff and the 4th line ended up getting way more ice time bc usually whoever was centering that line happened to be one of the guys the coaches semi trusted on draws.

the way a lot of offense in this league now comes from faceoff wins i think too many people are discrediting just how much this team is handcuffed by their lack of ability to gain possession after a stoppage and how that plays into deployment. im not picking on chytil but rolling out a player whos career best fow percentage is 43% makes it hard, especially when strome was at 44%. strome is going to get o zone starts bc their line generates offense AND they have the 11.3m offense only winger on it, but where the kid line or even just chytil gets killed for ice time is the fact they cant trust to start him in the d zone consistently bc he has a career faceoff win percentage around 40%, so the 4th line gets more starts bc even though kevin rooney was at 45% (or goodrow at 50%) the coaches clearly trust those 4th line guys to be able to adjust better to a lost draw than they do compared to chytil's line.

bottom line is this team as a whole needs to get better on faceoffs. this is also another reason i am not in love with pld, he sucks at draws and we are going to commit to him? regarding possession we will be in the same place again with overall horrible faceoff center men which leads to us chasing the game on most restarts, and if you are running zib, pld, and somehow keep chytil in the trade then you will see someone on the 4th line who is very good at draws, and if that happens chytil and his linemates will again be in purgatory with ice time and deployment.

I honestly think if chytil was sitting as a 52% faceoff guy we wouldnt be having these conversations about ice time for him and the kid line as a whole if they are together.

If Chytil was a 52% faceoff guy, on the same amount of faceoffs, he would have won 0.4 more faceoffs per game. You wouldn't even know the difference by watching the game if you never saw the stats.

 

[cheech70]

2C update
Filip
Copp
Strome
PLD
JT
Malkin
Drury and the Art of a Deal

 

[deathb4disco]

I would rather go after Trocheck if the rout we are going involves multiple players heading out. He's exactly what we need and is better option than slow, old, hurt Malkin.

 

[Savant]

I agree that a PLD trade could be the next Zibanejad deal. In the sense that we could very well end up making the same mistake the Senators did by giving up on a young player for someone who is more established.

I think we'll really regret moving him. Would much rather see us go with Copp and let Fil take over as he grows. If the team is worried about a long term commitment and the cap implications with Copp, then finding a shorter stop gap works as well.

We keep clamoring for the kids to take steps forward. Yet now that we had all 3 of our young forwards level up in the post season as a unit, we can't wait to break them up or ship them out for a guy who could very well use us as a pit stop on his way to Montreal.

The issue isn’t that we want to break the kids up. The issue is that Gallant wants to break the kids up.

I’m out on Dubois for cap reasons alone but alas, they are going to a center and they have nothing else to give up. And I’d still rather trade the youth assets for a legit center than sign Copp to a long term deal.

I would rather go after Trocheck if the rout we are going involves multiple players heading out. He's exactly what we need and is better option than slow, old, hurt Malkin.

They can’t afford Trocheck. He is going to get more than Strome and Copp

 

[bleedblue94]

What would be the motivation from the teams to agree to this?

i've heard the same thing as bob.

one benefit for the teams would be that it may allow them more flexibility with their rosters sooner. right now most of the league cant do anything bc it is all money in/money out with no growth in available cap space. also it may prevent all the agents/players from targeting the same summer for their contracts to expire which would put the gms in the same spot of basically filling all available cap space again with a bunch of super inflated contracts.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

You can never have too many top 6 players. What you need to do it make sure that players are multi-faceted if they end up on the 3rd line. Right now, the 3rd line wingers are looking like Kravtsov and Blais. Kravtsov has the skill to join the top 6. Blais has the sandpaper to play as a tweener. His last year in St. Louis he was producing like a top 6 forward, just not getting the ice time to put up the raw totals. Downside was he shot 25% and has never done that before. We did see he has skill too when he was healthy. Good news is that he's going to have a normal offseason to train. Should be fully healthy already.

Where the team is lacking is someone to jump into the top 6 as a center if needed. If they re-sign Copp, I'd love for them to use him in a 3C role while letting Chytil run with Panarin, at least to start. A line of Blais-Copp-Kravtsov has potential. Line with size and skating. If you want to roll more of a matchup line, you could put Kakko there and have Kravtsov move up with Chytil and Panarin to go pure offense with that line. If Copp is not the guy, it makes things more difficult IMO.

The last part is making sure that the 4th line is not just there to fill in 8 minutes of ice time. Goodrow is a perfect start to that. Hunt can be part of that, but as the 13th forward. Reaves is not part of that, but I can understand having him around as a part time player. You need to find two 4th liners in free agency or promoted from within. Motte can be one of those, and hopefully that report from Mollie Walker is accurate. I'd prefer the other is a center than can play on the wing if needed, especially with their down the middle depth in the system.

I agree with most of this.

I was responding to a poster who says we have “too many top 6” forwards.

We have three top 6 forwards. Panarin. Kreider. Zibanejad. Then we have a bunch of kids who we need to give opportunities to in the top 6. They aren’t top 6 F yet. Instead of being given that chance, they are being thrown into trade proposals for more expensive players, despite the team having very limited cap flexibility for the next two seasons.

 

[bleedblue94]

If Chytil was a 52% faceoff guy, on the same amount of faceoffs, he would have won 0.4 more faceoffs per game. You wouldn't even know the difference by watching the game if you never saw the stats.

that is such a simplistic way to look at this and I like to think you are smarter than that.

by that logic you are suggesting the difference between chytil and bergeoron or ror is roughly ~2 fow per game, that's not a big deal so who cares about it right?

would you put chytil out there right now for an important draw that you needed to win? of course not. stop trying to twist everything bc it is getting annoying.

 

[Thirty One]

i've heard the same thing as bob.

one benefit for the teams would be that it may allow them more flexibility with their rosters sooner. right now most of the league cant do anything bc it is all money in/money out with no growth in available cap space. also it may prevent all the agents/players from targeting the same summer for their contracts to expire which would put the gms in the same spot of basically filling all available cap space again with a bunch of super inflated contracts.

Here's hoping, but to me it doesn't sound like the kind of thing the league likes to do.

 

[SA16]

that is such a simplistic way to look at this and I like to think you are smarter than that.

by that logic you are suggesting the difference between chytil and bergeoron or ror is roughly ~2 fow per game, that's not a big deal so who cares about it right?

would you put chytil out there right now for an important draw that you needed to win? of course not. stop trying to twist everything bc it is getting annoying.

I would not because Zibanejad is on the team and better than him. That will be the case regardless of how good/bad Chytil is on faceoffs.

Also your math is extremely faulty.

Bergeron 13.6 FOW/game
ROR 11.5 FOW/game
Chytil 2.0 FOW/game

So, no, I am not suggesting the difference between those guys and him is two per game. Even if you took Bergeron's total FO with Chytil's FO% it's a difference of 4 per game...and there would be no reason for Chytil to ever take that many.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Jacob Trouba, Fluff Piece.

 

[Off Sides]

Much like back with just corsi, I think treating all faceoffs with the same amount of importance is kind of silly.

That said, I doubt it makes a huge difference in the players stats even if they were broken down by zone, or game score, or whatever.

The other thing, often the faceoff is sort of neutral, the other players come in to get the puck, So without being able to separate the other players ability to do that beyond the person who took the faceoff (like rebound ability in basketball) .. anyway it's nicer to win them than lose them.

 

[bleedblue94]

Here's hoping, but to me it doesn't sound like the kind of thing the league likes to do.

i think the league would prefer a gradual climb, but i also think it is imperative to get through the coming season in a 100% normal capacity with no further disruptions to the revenue system. if the league has financial certainty that their projections will be met then i think the gradual climb is very realistic.

 

[bbny]

I agree that a PLD trade could be the next Zibanejad deal. In the sense that we could very well end up making the same mistake the Senators did by giving up on a young player for someone who is more established.

I think we'll really regret moving him. Would much rather see us go with Copp and let Fil take over as he grows. If the team is worried about a long term commitment and the cap implications with Copp, then finding a shorter stop gap works as well.

We keep clamoring for the kids to take steps forward. Yet now that we had all 3 of our young forwards level up in the post season as a unit, we can't wait to break them up or ship them out for a guy who could very well use us as a pit stop on his way to Montreal.

Not even close because PLD just turned 24. He's about to hit his prime. Zibanejad was 23 and Brassard was 29 when they were swapped. 6 year age difference and it was clear Brassard had peaked in his prime. There's a 1-2 year age difference between PLD and Chytil/Kakko.

If anything, getting PLD just before his prime is like getting Zibanejad just before his prime.