100% agree with the bolded. That's what concerns me about locking in to Copp for term. I like the player, but the term concerns me.
Yeah, it concerns me too a lot. Not in itself — but we seriously have a ton of risky long term commitments already, and none of them are like below market value. Panarin, Ziba, Trouba, Kreider and many others, Goodrow isn’t cheap.
If there is one thing that never keeps surprising you with this league it’s how fast things change. Like at any point in this team’s history, if you look at one season and ask yourself — could I (a) predict we would be here three years ago and (b) predict that the players on this team would perform like they are? And then you (c) apply the same magnitude of changes and surprises both ways in terms of production 3 years ahead.
Doing this with 22’ vs 19’ and projecting how things would look in 25’ wis perhaps extreme, we would have like Bobby Trivigno winning the Hart (Fox), is getting McAvoy and Draisatl (Trouba and Panarin), we will have traded Shesty but picked up a Vezina winner elsewhere etc etc etc. But I have applied this test/thinking over the years — and it’s always absurd how much different things turns out than it’s possible to even speculate on.
If we would bookmark this post and fast forward to 2025, or even 2024, I bet my right arm that things will have turned out very different than it’s possible to predict today. Someone won’t be on the roster that we think are a given today, someone will have outperformed expectations a lot, someone will have done a lot worse.
My point is just, you need flexibility. If we need X today, we must be prepared that we will need Y tomorrow.