Speculation: Roster Building Thread: New Season Edition

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If something happened to Shesty we would adjust our style to win games i have no doubt about it. Having him allows us to play a certain way we couldn't without him. The issue to me is if something happens to Halak too because i dont see Domingue as a reliable goalie.
 
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regardless of what I think of these models or game score or whatever the f*** the Rangers need their top pick forwards to uhhhhhh actually score. since they don't do that, it is more than fair to say our depth sucks. it very much does.
 
I mean, you can acknowledge that we can lean on Shesterkin and also see that we have a much, much better chance of winning the Cup (which is obviously very hard) if we don't.

The Lightning have the other best goalie in the world and he also has by far the easiest job in the league. It takes both. It adds layers to the way you can beat a team.

So when people say "we rely too much on Shesterkin" replying "well, he's on the team" isn't really challenging their point.
 
I really think the missing piece is project to go either 2nd or 3rd this year- C- Adam Fantilli

Realistically what would it take to get the 2nd overall pick at the 2023 draft to draft him?

Chytil, Dallas #1 and NYR #1 ?
Kakko Dallas #1 and NYR #1 ?
Chytil, Kakko and NYR #1 ?
Chytil, Kakko and Dallas #1?

would both players and both picks be enough?
Realistically none of those packages. I recall Gordie Clarke saying in 2010 when the Rangers had the 10th pick that to get from 10 to 1 they would have had to have traded Henrik. And that was for Taylor Hall.
 
Those cap projections were a little bit of a disappointment. $87.5M to $88M for 24-25. $92M for 25-26.

Such a sad league, the NBA cap is going to 134 million/162 at the tax level next summer, and they are then getting a huge new tv deal in 2025.
 
If Miller is going to give any discount it would be on 7-8 year deal. Bridge deals don't come with discounts as far as I'm aware.
Not sure I buy that. Just because it's a bridge deal, doesn't mean a player can't give you a deal on it. Bridge deals cover cost controlled RFA years, there's still some sort of precedent for some players to be paid better in those years. So Key could give us a break on those two years.

It would also help us to not buy-out UFA years in the now, since a 6 year deal that would cover his first 3 or 4 years of UFA. That would raise his cap hit substantially. We could forego that but it could cost us more. I'm not 100% on how many more years of RFA he has after this one, but there would maybe be a 1 years overlap with the end of Trouba's contract and his first year of UFA.

Someone smarter than me could probably tell us that though haha.
 
Those cap projections were a little bit of a disappointment. $87.5M to $88M for 24-25. $92M for 25-26.
Yeah I was surprised, expectations were the cap was gonna skyrocket after they paid off the debt but instead we are going to see the typical increase. Didn't John Shannon say he thought it would go up almost 10M in 24? He's not the most reliable but based on these projections it won't even go up 10m in 2 years
 
Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.
Having Igor guarantees us at least 90 points (not all from him). Any little improvement from the kids and/or 5v5 and we are a powerhouse.
 
Yeah I was surprised, expectations were the cap was gonna skyrocket after they paid off the debt but instead we are going to see the typical increase. Didn't John Shannon say he thought it would go up almost 10M in 24? He's not the most reliable but based on these projections it won't even go up 10m in 2 years
Shannon said as much as $10M in two years. Frank Seravalli said the salary cap would increase by $8M-$10M in two years. The NHL projection has the cap going up by $4M-$4.5M in 2024 and another $4M increase in 2025.
 
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The Rangers need one or two of the young guns to step up their scoring. Trocheck and Panarin will be fine. If one or two of the kids break out there will be enough goals.

Carpenter skates like an old lady. I wasn't expecting much but he worries me. Rydahl looks like he could be the real deal.
its actually nuts how little goal scoring depth we got last season. Kreider had 52, then i think only 2 others had 20 and nobody (not even Zib) hit 30 which is insane considering 51 NHL players had at least 30 last season. Hopefully we have a better spread this season... Zib and Panarin need to start shooting because they are both capable of 30 minimum, Zib more like 40.
 
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The Athletic has the Rangers at a 64% chance to make the playoffs. Aside from the top two lines, the rest of the team is in the same league as Chicago and Buffalo. Last year was basically a mirage because the team has sucked in the years prior to last, and Igor stood on his head. Their projections take into account that none of the kids do much more aside from maybe Key, and that Igor regresses. If the Rangers won the cup last year, their "rank" would be exactly the same.

Basically: not a "real" 100 point team, no scoring outside Kreider and Zib, no depth, and Igor is too good.

So for the analytical crowd to give the team respect, they will probably need to make the playoffs a few more years in a row, a few of the kids get out of their negative ratings AND get WORSE goaltending. As strange as that sounds, the Rangers would have been higher in their rankings if Igor sucked but they scored more.
Makes analytics appear useless.

It can't predict this, it can't predict that, goalies = "shrug". Then keep your nonsense to yourself.

They're basically telling us what happened last year, with no clue for the future. Prospects never breakout. blash blah blh.

More simply, how many teams in the division can finish ahead of the Rangers? ONE - Carolina. The rest are aging has beens or youth with no established players.

Dom can go choke on his model.
 
So we are looking at the upper limits being:

22-23 - 82.5
23-24 - 83.5
24-25 ~ 87.5
25-26 ~ 92.0

Its nice that almost 3.5 in dead buyout comes off the books at the end of this season as well. Its like the cap goes up 4.5 next year for the Rangers, if you want to look at it that way. Theyll need it
 
Makes analytics appear useless.

It can't predict this, it can't predict that, goalies = "shrug". Then keep your nonsense to yourself.

They're basically telling us what happened last year, with no clue for the future. Prospects never breakout. blash blah blh.

More simply, how many teams in the division can finish ahead of the Rangers? ONE - Carolina. The rest are aging has beens or youth with no established players.

Dom can go choke on his model.
Model has us only ahead of LA and St. Louis in terms of last years playoff teams.

But again, these models are just one thing to think about. At least one team that is projected to suck will be good and vice versa. Probably multiple. Rangers will move up the model standings if they get more shots and more 5v5 goals. It really is just that ultimately with these things. Everything else is window dressing.
 
If Jarry never got hurt the Rangers would have probably won sooner. He wore out in the 2nd half and was really, really bad before he got injured. Plus his playoff track record has been less than good.

I don't think goaltending really let down Carolina either. Andersen or not, they didn't score in that series. For the talk about how special teams and a PP can't carry you that far, it sure as hell carried the Rangers through that series.

I absolutely think goaltending let Carolina down, especially in Game 7.

I guess I don’t know enough about Jarry’s late season performance to say one way or the other but it sure feels like facing a third string goalie is better than facing the first or second stringer. Saying that stuff doesn’t matter seems disingenuous.
 
Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.

I tend to think the elite teams are elite at 5v5, or at least pretty good at it. So much of the game is played at 5v5.

Igor posting an all time season can’t be a feature.

Those cap projections were a little bit of a disappointment. $87.5M to $88M for 24-25. $92M for 25-26.

I’m usually pro-owner in these negotiations but I agree, how can hockey revenue not be up more with those TV deals? Something stinks.
 
Makes analytics appear useless.

It can't predict this, it can't predict that, goalies = "shrug". Then keep your nonsense to yourself.

They're basically telling us what happened last year, with no clue for the future. Prospects never breakout. blash blah blh.

More simply, how many teams in the division can finish ahead of the Rangers? ONE - Carolina. The rest are aging has beens or youth with no established players.

Dom can go choke on his model.

Dom specifically does talk about how his model has trouble with a team like the Rangers and he tries to give some context as to why, how it might be wrong, and says that the Rangers are a real good candidate to outperform his model.

Basically the Rangers 5v5 numbers and previous history of missing the playoffs, combined with a model that might not be able to accurately predict the growth of players like Lafreniere and Kakko, gives you this kind of result.

So, to some extent he's absolutely right that the Rangers need to improve 5v5, they shouldn't rely on Shesterkin to have historically good seasons every year, and that real positive growth from their young players that isn't accurately reflected in the model (combined with their talent being able to over perform the model) means that this could easily be an inaccurate view of the Rangers next season.
 
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I mean, you can acknowledge that we can lean on Shesterkin and also see that we have a much, much better chance of winning the Cup (which is obviously very hard) if we don't.

The Lightning have the other best goalie in the world and he also has by far the easiest job in the league. It takes both. It adds layers to the way you can beat a team.

So when people say "we rely too much on Shesterkin" replying "well, he's on the team" isn't really challenging their point.
Maybe relying on Shesterkin is why we didn’t win the Cup.
 
I tend to think the elite teams are elite at 5v5, or at least pretty good at it. So much of the game is played at 5v5.

Igor posting an all time season can’t be a feature.



I’m usually pro-owner in these negotiations but I agree, how can hockey revenue not be up more with those TV deals? Something stinks.
I recall reading something, maybe posted from someone on this board, that owners are nervous about a big cap increase because of the contracts that will follow (which is asinine since it's supposed to be linked to revenue so if your cap is going up then it should be because you're getting the money to cover those increases...but NHL gonna NHL)
 
I absolutely think goaltending let Carolina down, especially in Game 7.

Huh?

Rangers goals in that game were as follows.

1 - Fox snipe on PP (goalie was screened)
2 - Kreider tip on PP (No one is stopping this)
3 - Strome on 2 v 1 - Maybe this is stopped by a better goalie
4 - Kreider breakaway
5 - Chytil breakaway
6 - Copp ENG.

Doesn't change the fact that they scored 2 goals in this game, and one of them was garbage time when the game was over.

Game 6? Yeah Raanta let up 2 stinkers.
 
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