Speculation: Roster Building Thread: New Season Edition

[DialUp]

"The model doesn’t think it’ll happen because it can’t predict a breakout."

Thats literally the case for like 6 young players on this team. One or two at the very least will outperform the prediction, thus throwing a wrench in the entire thing. But I'm glad the expectations are low. This team proved what they could do and now they all carry that experience into another year, with the same Vezina goaltender.

We all saw and continue to see what has *happened* and what is currently *happening* but we don't know what could change:

- Igor was IGOD
- Our powerplay was stacked
- Carolina is not as good as everyone makes them out to be
- K'Andre is a fcking stud
- Laf, Kakko, Chytil has not been that great
- 5 v 5 heavily lagged
- We get outshot

 

[Levitate]

He can also be LTIRed all season

you can’t LTIR someone without a real issue and the player would never accept just sitting all year if they’re capable of playing but the team is lying about an injury

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

you can’t LTIR someone without a real issue and the player would never accept just sitting all year if they’re capable of playing but the team is lying about an injury

Team would get dinged by the league if they tried to do that.

But I don't think its something they're going to need to lie about either. Seems inevitable.

 

[Fitzy]

So for the analytical crowd to give the team respect, they will probably need to make the playoffs a few more years in a row, a few of the kids get out of their negative ratings AND get WORSE goaltending. As strange as that sounds, the Rangers would have been higher in their rankings if Igor sucked but they scored more.

At this point, frankly, I couldn't give less of a shit what the analytics crowd thinks.

We're here to win a cup not to impress coding nerds.

 

[mas0764]

The Athletic has the Rangers at a 64% chance to make the playoffs. Aside from the top two lines, the rest of the team is in the same league as Chicago and Buffalo. Last year was basically a mirage because the team has sucked in the years prior to last, and Igor stood on his head. Their projections take into account that none of the kids do much more aside from maybe Key, and that Igor regresses. If the Rangers won the cup last year, their "rank" would be exactly the same.

Basically: not a "real" 100 point team, no scoring outside Kreider and Zib, no depth, and Igor is too good.

So for the analytical crowd to give the team respect, they will probably need to make the playoffs a few more years in a row, a few of the kids get out of their negative ratings AND get WORSE goaltending. As strange as that sounds, the Rangers would have been higher in their rankings if Igor sucked but they scored more.

Yeah they need the kids to develop. This is no surprise.

People who didn’t get fooled by the hot goaltending and scorching power play have been saying this.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah they need the kids to develop. This is no surprise.

People who didn’t get fooled by the hot goaltending and scorching power play have been saying this.

Those are things that exist though. The latter has been a thing for years and if they're not going to assume that people take steps forward, they shouldn't assume that the PP won't continue to roast opponents.

 

[mas0764]

As for the article and it’s projections, like in previous years it mandatorily dings the Rangers because it can’t project big jumps from Kakko, Laf, Kravtsov and Miller. On the other hand, logically we as fans should be able to expect them at some point, but the model just is incapable of it. It also pencils in Hunt and Reaves as net negative starters and hopefully Vesey and Rydahl take those spots instead and are net positives. If we get big jumps from Laf, Kakko, Miller, Schneider and Krav, and guys like Jones, Rydahl and Vesey take spots from Hunt, Hajek and Reaves, the team jumps up substantially based on the analytics alone.

Those are things that exist though. The latter has been a thing for years and if they're not going to assume that people take steps forward, they shouldn't assume that the PP won't continue to roast opponents.

Fair enough but it’s also not going to win them any Cups once you reach the elite teams.

And again, if we are being honest, if we don’t run into backup goalies we are out in either the first or second rounds most likely as well.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Also making projections before rosters are even set is f***ing stupid.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Forget the offense for a minute.

Defensively, shot suppression, forwards specifically. It's a big deal this year.

Hunt and Gauthier aren't great, pretty bad actually. Vesey will be an upgrade there for sure, he can be trusted. Rydahl looks like he's got a Motte type stick, which helped out a ton in the playoffs both in the D and neutral zone. I've seen similarities in that regard from #15. Goodrow is Goodrow.

Reaves needs to see more of the press box this season. A lot more.

The Kid line, if intact - there should be an improvement there too. We saw Laf develop defensively as the year went on and did much better in the playoffs. If you think about how he was in the first half of the year compared to the second there was a noticeable improvement. Chytil isn't perfect here and needs to be better, but his confidence on offense/puck possession lends to less D-Time against. Kakko is Kakko and is one of the best on the team.

Trocheck is a MASSIVE upgrade in this regard over Strome. Just winning faceoffs alone will help the D-Zone starts which lead to shots on. Panarin wants to "be everywhere". Hopefully its also helping out more defensively. Kravstov, is the wildcard at the NHL level. He floats a little too much. He's the weakpoint but at least its not next to Strome.

Mikas line is good, with Blais we will see since he is more physical. I keep forgetting Blais is on the team. He's another wildcard, but Im almost expecting him not to be around the entire season.

The entire team needs to make an effort to block some more shots, get sticks and legs in lanes and cut down on the odd man rushes.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

As for the article and it’s projections, like in previous years it mandatorily dings the Rangers because it can’t project big jumps from Kakko, Laf, Kravtsov and Miller. On the other hand, logically we as fans should be able to expect them at some point, but the model just is incapable of it. It also pencils in Hunt and Reaves as net negative starters and hopefully Vesey and Rydahl take those spots instead and are net positives. If we get big jumps from Laf, Kakko, Miller, Schneider and Krav, and guys like Jones, Rydahl and Vesey take spots from Hunt, Hajek and Reaves, the team jumps up substantially based on the analytics alone.



Fair enough but it’s also not going to win them any Cups once you reach the elite teams.

And again, if we are being honest, if we don’t run into backup goalies we are out in either the first or second rounds most likely as well.

If Jarry never got hurt the Rangers would have probably won sooner. He wore out in the 2nd half and was really, really bad before he got injured. Plus his playoff track record has been less than good.

I don't think goaltending really let down Carolina either. Andersen or not, they didn't score in that series. For the talk about how special teams and a PP can't carry you that far, it sure as hell carried the Rangers through that series.

 

[DialUp]

At this point, frankly, I couldn't give less of a shit what the analytics crowd thinks.

We're here to win a cup not to impress coding nerds.

Of course, but it is still interesting to talk about it. These guys' models have the Rangers ranked 14th...behind Dallas(!).

I am of the opinion that last year was a surprise. I didn't even think they were good enough to make the playoffs going into last year. You aren't good UNTIL YOU ARE. That is what the model is basically saying, Rangers are middle of the road who over performed. If they continue to do what they did last year, *maybe* it wasn't an over performance after all. But the analytic crowd don't like goalies, they don't like shots against, and they like blowouts. So unless the Rangers figure that stuff out, they will always be analytically "meh" and won't be projected to be a top team. It is interesting to see things go against those models as it did last year.

*Analytics basically says "you aren't as good or bad as your record". That is the lens of it, but it's just one lens. At the end of the day we care about wins, and models DO NOT.

I always thought that after The Letter, this year, 2022-2023 would be the year we *snuck in* to the last spot to get our playoff feet wet. The model basically saying that is true, but with Igor even being a little worse than last year, it's better than "snuck in" because he is that good.

*EDIT* this one I find hilarious - the Stars are ranked ahead of the Rangers in the model because of one player, Mason Marchment? Lol. Anyway, the BEST CASE for the Stars is "winning a playoff round" whereas the best case for the Rangers in their estimation is Cup Winners....and the model has the Stars ahead of us.

 

[kovazub94]

After watching the first two games I agree with you. Was gonna come on and say the same thing.

Rydahl and Vesey have both stood out and made a noticeable impact, even if it's just two games. You invite these guys to come into camp to try to win a job and push the competition level up around them. They are doing just that but the other people they are pushing arent pushing back.

To me, Vesey is an easy, slam dunk choice to make the team. He has the most experience with over 400 NHL games, has a good skill set, has played with the Rangers already so theres familiarity there with the media, training facility, etc, etc. That isnt totally important but it helps. Bottom line is what hes shown on the ice is a player who can help this team and is more skilled and intelligent with and without the puck than Hunt & Gauthier. Its plain to see and I will no longer call him Jimmy. He has graduated to JIM.

With Rydahl, we've only seen two games but its been what this team needs. There was a clamouring to re-sign Motte and Rydahl provides almost everything he provided, speed, PK, good stick - except hes 5 inches taller and 10-15 pounds heavier, likely more durable and he can play center and win faceoffs and thats huge. Yes Motte has the experience over him, but Rydahl comes in at 600K less.

Othmann
Gauthier
Hunt
Carpenter
Brodzinski
Reaves
Trivigno
Cuylle

We know Reaves will be on the roster. But your 4th line is light years ahead of what we saw early last year when they had to send out the likes of McKegg and Gettinger. Im fine with Brodz making the club and sticking around even if he doesnt play all of the time. Gallant trusted him with a spot start in the playoffs, hes got wheels and heavy shot and can play up and down the lineup if needed. He's a better player than Hunt, Gauthier & Carpenter who are one dimensional and have more weak points in their games. Hes a better player. Its clear.

Rydahl and Brodz can easily be brought up and down as mentioned above. Thats where it gets tricky with the cap. But I'd love to see Rydahl make this team. And to me, at the very least Vesey should be on the 4th line and written in ink.

Othmann would get his games if it were another team with less depth. He wont this time unless theres an injury. Cuylle will start in Hartford. Trivigno has heart, but shouldve signed with another team because he is too undersized and has too many guys to leapfrog.

Great take! 100% agree

Really wish Rydahl would be given a shot on thr opening night roster of he keeps playing like this through the rest of the preseason.

Hes exactly what this team needs on thr 4th line from what we've seen so far (albeit a small sample size).

Then you have 3 main PKers in Vesey, Goodrow and Rydahl. That's half of the PK players you need. Also reduces the amount of PK minutes the top line players need to take.

Zibanejad, Kreider and Trocheck will also be on PK. I'm hoping they could find PK time for Kakko also

 

[kovazub94]

He can also be LTIRed all season

As for UAGoalie's point about Rydahl- you have to think he's the first guy up in case of injury. As a previous poster noted he's in a good spot where he will still be earning roughly double in the AHL what he would in Europe.

We can afford to be patient, there will be injuries. I know Carpenter isn't popular but he was brought in as an affordable downgrade on Kevin Rooney.

Whether Vesey makes the team over Hunt is I think the big conversation at the forward position. Jones-Hajek-Robertson is a good contest on the blueline but i'd be shocked if Jones doesn't make the team. Really think Vesey-Hunt is the important contest here.

As opposed to a "replacement" - "downgrade" on Kevin Rooney is not a good thing.

 

[Fitzy]

As opposed to a "replacement" - "downgrade" on Kevin Rooney is not a good thing.

I completely agree which is why I hope it's temporary

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The Athletic has the Rangers at a 64% chance to make the playoffs. Aside from the top two lines, the rest of the team is in the same league as Chicago and Buffalo. Last year was basically a mirage because the team has sucked in the years prior to last, and Igor stood on his head. Their projections take into account that none of the kids do much more aside from maybe Key, and that Igor regresses. If the Rangers won the cup last year, their "rank" would be exactly the same.

Basically: not a "real" 100 point team, no scoring outside Kreider and Zib, no depth, and Igor is too good.

So for the analytical crowd to give the team respect, they will probably need to make the playoffs a few more years in a row, a few of the kids get out of their negative ratings AND get WORSE goaltending. As strange as that sounds, the Rangers would have been higher in their rankings if Igor sucked but they scored more.

We will make deals at the deadline, our team to start this year is better than it was to start last year imo and we made playoffs, i have no idea how someone would think we should not make it.

 

[McRanger92]

If Jarry never got hurt the Rangers would have probably won sooner. He wore out in the 2nd half and was really, really bad before he got injured. Plus his playoff track record has been less than good.

I don't think goaltending really let down Carolina either. Andersen or not, they didn't score in that series. For the talk about how special teams and a PP can't carry you that far, it sure as hell carried the Rangers through that series.

Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.

 

[DialUp]

Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.

They did basically break even last year. It's just that the models claim it was all Igor, otherwise we would have been underwater.

 

[Crease]

Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.

This. Not sure why the Rangers are constantly dinged for having great goaltending and special teams. Yes if Igor gets hurt or has a down year the team is f***ed, but remove the best player from every team and the same holds true for them.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I see we’re going to keep wasting forum space for people that don’t understand the underlying math in Dom’s model and that it is also simply not a good model.

Game score is already extremely limited and has its biases. Adding in the layer of public xGF models which are also bad only makes it worse

 

[DialUp]

Yes if Igor gets hurt or has a down year the team is f***ed

I am optimistic we wouldn't be as f**cked as some would think. The team SHOULD be still contending for a playoff spot with just running Halak out there.

 

[RangerBoy]

Those cap projections were a little bit of a disappointment. $87.5M to $88M for 24-25. $92M for 25-26.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Igor and the power play are a feature not a bug with the Rangers. All they need to do is break even 5v5 and they are an elite team.

Right but those two things are tough to be repeatable. That’s what the analytics community is dinging the rangers for.

 

[DialUp]

Those cap projections were a little bit of a disappointment. $87.5M to $88M for 24-25. $92M for 25-26.

Well, you aren't supposed to build teams and reward good performances. You are supposed to luck out when the time is right. So, par.

 

[SA16]

Also making projections before rosters are even set is f***ing stupid.

What would that change? The guys competing for spots are almost always going to be bottom of the lineup players who would make a negligible difference in any projection.

 

[DialUp]

What would that change? The guys competing for spots are almost always going to be bottom of the lineup players who would make a negligible difference in any projection.

You are forgetting Vesey 1st line right wing!