Drury need to keep the assets he have to be able exploit the market when the burden of a flat cap is lifted of it. We are entering a totally different era with totally different conditions than what we are used to from the last 8 years or so.
This is the history of the Cap (between 12/13 and 13/14 the PAs share started to roll back from 57% to 50%):
The projection is that its a coin flip if all debt is paid and the cap raises to 86m next season. If it does and the NHL experience the same growth as it did the last time we had inflation in the economy -- ie at the same rates as in 06, 07 and 08 -- the Cap would go from 86m to 96m to 110m to 125m over the course of 4 seasons. If its just 7 percent yearly growth, its 86, 92, 98 and 105m instead.
Its 15 years ago, but its relevant to look back at what types of moves really paid of during that period. A classic example is Detroit jumping on Brian Rafalski and locking him up to a 5 year 6m per deal. Everyone was like 6m for Rafalski??? It was signed coming of a 44m cap and ended under like a 64m cap. You got to be expansive and exploit opportunities. It becomes hard to get good players instead of hard to fit them under the cap. The difference between the 'have's' and 'have nots' will increase rapidly. When a number of teams crystallize as true contenders that the rest can't really compete with -- you see more players on teams with no outlooks go like 'trade me, I want to win something'. We will be in the running in those discussions.
From my POV:
(a) We definitely do
not have a window in the coming 2-3 years that look better than in the coming 4-8 years. In the current environment, there are no contenders, besides maybe like a team like Tampa occasionally. What are our best odds, that we can get to a point were a ECF and a SCF is a coin flip? That is 25% -- and a point its really hard to get to.
(b) Drury should keep his powder dry while we are still storting out the mess we are in, because the upside is limited.
(c) When the wet blanket of the pandemic and everything else is lifted from the Cap -- good luck for 2/3 of the NHL competing with a team like ours. Parity? There was very little partiy in the NHL between 05' and 12' in terms of all teams being able to compete with each other. Some coaches went in the wrong direction, there were some odd results, loaded teams blew series they shouldn't have lost. But the best teams were
loaded. Why? The cap going up as much as it did which enabled them to keep their team together while adding players.
Chicago, Philly and Boston are at totally the wrong place to reap the benefits from being an attractive location with a rising cap. Pittsburgh will most likely join them in the near future.
Our long-term future look very good.