Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXIV: 2021: “The Fun has begun” or “Over & done”?

[Savant]

See and I still disagree with that.

You have quite a bit of money coming off the bucks the next two years. And that doesn't take into account that Larking means Zibanejad is moving out, so that's a cap wash and replacing some assets. Depending on what you have to give up, you have a pipeline of talent coming along that will be filling roles --- they just aren't there yet.

This team has holes, because it's in a transition period. Detroit isn't even done with its accumulation period. But you've got quite a bit of talent coming along as well, and a decent amount of money to work with as well.

Sure. The Rangers are closer than Detroit but they are still miles away from other contenders in the East alone. Larkin doesn’t close the gap to Carolina or Tampa for example

 

[duhmetreE]

Buchnevich is making $3.25 now and is having a great season. And you believe he should make no less than $1m increase? You really think that this is a realistic statement? The kid is going to get $5-5.5. And rightfully so.

And wait? You actually believe that the reason that DeAngelo is not getting moved is his contract and not toxicity? Teams did not need to conduct their own due diligence to see that. They ALL walked away after the due diligence.

Are we pretending that Covid didn't happen and teams are struggling to pay bills and the cap will be flat for 3-4 years?

And if you read, I literally said, THE MAIN REASON IS NOT HIS TOXICITY BUT HIS NEAR $5M CAP HIT. There's no reason for Gorton to eat salary or take back salary when he can be bought out.

If no one will offer Buch that money... why are we? once again, I asked. WHO will offer Buch $6M.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I do not think so as I do not believe that they looked at ADA as a future piece of the defense.

Quite the 180 on your stance considering not more than a few months ago you said if DeAngelo keeps scoring there’s no way they trade him

 

[DanielBrassard]

With Larkin only having 2 years left on his deal I would probably stay away from trading for him. They should look to someone who is either signed for longer or explore UFA in the coming years.

 

[TheBPA]

Are we pretending that Covid didn't happen and teams are struggling to pay bills and the cap will be flat for 3-4 years?

And if you read, I literally said, THE MAIN REASON IS NOT HIS TOXICITY BUT HIS NEAR $5M CAP HIT. There's no reason for Gorton to eat salary or take back salary when he can be bought out.

If no one will offer Buch that money... why are we?

There's almost no chance that Buch is the type of player that gets squeezed.

 

[RGY]

Find a way to get Elias Lindholm

 

[duhmetreE]

There's almost no chance that Buch is the type of player that gets squeezed.

what team is going to give him $5-6M? What contending team has the space? What basement dweller has the revenue/cash flow?

IMO We're completely underselling the economic impact of Covid on Orgs.

It's not 'being squeezed'... It's the literal market right now.
____

2 years / 4ish per

 

[True Blue]

Quite the 180 on your stance considering not more than a few months ago you said if DeAngelo keeps scoring there’s no way they trade him

Last year, I said that if they need to trade him, it will be a part of something very big. Then they drafted Schneider. Then Lundqvist continued to take steps forward. Then this year began. Then the crap with DeAngelo started.

Evaluations are made on beliefs given what the fact pattern looks like at the time.

 

[Fitzy]

One wonders with the flat cap if

A) UFA deals will start being cheaper than age 25-26 RFA deals because the supply of money is so limited. (Like with Granlund vs Strome this offseason)

B) If this changes how teams think about creating a competitive window, and how much they value players like ADA, Strome, Buchnevich in that 25-26 age group, as far as trade value goes.

 

[Edge]

Sure. The Rangers are closer than Detroit but they are still miles away from other contenders in the East alone. Larkin doesn’t close the gap to Carolina or Tampa for example

I can't help but feel that if Zibanejad is closer to his 2018-2019 form (forget last year), this is a playoff team and a team with the emerging talent to close the gap faster than people think.

So if we swap Zibanejad with someone performing closer to that 2018-19 level, I think we're in a very different place.

This has been a really weird year, but I don't think we're as far off as you might believe. We still have Laf, Kakko, Miller, Lundkvist, Kravtsov, Barron, Chytil, Shesterkin, Fox, Lindgren, Robertson, and Schneider who combined have all of 500 games of NHL experiences between the 12 of them. That's A LOT of talent.

Let's even say the Rangers are three years away from challenging those teams. Someone like Larkin would still be younger than Zibanejad is today. The guy is younger than our rookie starting goalie.

 

[True Blue]

Are we pretending that Covid didn't happen and teams are struggling to pay bills and the cap will be flat for 3-4 years?

1) Covid did happen and there will be a flat cap. That has nothing to do with whether or not players will be given certain contracts with certain raises.

And if you read, I literally said, THE MAIN REASON IS NOT HIS TOXICITY BUT HIS NEAR $5M CAP HIT. There's no reason for Gorton to eat salary or take back salary when he can be bought out.

I know what you said. That is what makes it a complete piece of idiocy. No offense. Or be offended. Whichever. It's America and you can have whatever take you want, but believing that the contract is why ALL NHL teams are staying away from him is flat out ignorant idiocy.

If no one will offer Buch that money... why are we? once again, I asked. WHO will offer Buch $6M.

Where did I mention he is getting $6m? And who has decided how much a team would offer Buchnevich if he was a UFA? Were I a betting man, I would bet that his contract would be going rate for a first line RW, albeit in a flat cap scenario.

 

[TheBPA]

what team is going to give him $5-6M? What contending team has the space? What basement dweller has the revenue/cash flow?

IMO We're completely underselling the economic impact of Covid on Orgs.

It's not 'being squeezed'... It's the literal market right now.
____

2 years / 4ish per

Ok you're right. He's on pace for 68 pts, plays PP and PK, has become a 200 ft player and has a bit of an edge to him without taking stupid penalties. I'm sure the market for him will be a Brandon Tanev level contract.

You want comparables?

Oliver Bjorkstrand, a player who has produced less for a shorter time period, just signed a 5 year, $5.4m per year contract in January 2021, as an RFA.

Dadonov signed for 3 years at $5m per year in October 2020 as a UFA.

Burakovsky, 2 years at $4.9m per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

Kevin LaBanc, 4 years at $4.725 per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Find a way to get Elias Lindholm

Wouldn't he be one of the pieces Calgary would want to hold on to if they start dealing?

 

[duhmetreE]

Ok you're right. He's on pace for 68 pts, plays PP and PK, has become a 200 ft player and has a bit of an edge to him without taking stupid penalties. I'm sure the market for him will be a Brandon Tanev level contract.

You want comparables?

Oliver Bjorkstrand, a player who has produced less for a shorter time period, just signed a 5 year, $5.4m per year contract in January 2021, as an RFA.

Dadonov signed for 3 years at $5m per year in October 2020 as a UFA.

Burakovsky, 2 years at $4.9m per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

Kevin LaBanc, 4 years at $4.725 per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

IMO There are no comparables. This is before we understood the ramifications of the market. Using the past for this unprecedent time, is not 1:1

The question I was asking was, what team has the need along with the cap and cash?

 

[TheBPA]

IMO There are no comparables. This is before we understood the ramifications of the market. Using the past for this unprecedent time, is not 1:1

Ok fine, so you're just entirely making this up, which I guess is your right.

If you think teams weren't aware in October, 5 months ago, that the cap was going to be flat for the next several years, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Keeping Buchnevich would be a mistake.

Money wise perhaps he comes in at a fair price, but the things that we suck at collectively? He reallllllly sucks at them.

 

[duhmetreE]

Ok fine, so you're just entirely making this up, which I guess is your right.

If you think teams weren't aware in October, 5 months ago, that the cap was going to be flat for the next several years, then I don't know what to tell you.

yes, I'm making it up. The market isn't dry right now for financial reasons

We should pay people like everything is fine.

 

[TheBPA]

Keeping Buchnevich would be a mistake.

Money wise perhaps he comes in at a fair price, but the things that we suck at collectively? He reallllllly sucks at them.

Perhaps it would be, but that's a different conversation.

 

[duhmetreE]

Ok fine, so you're just entirely making this up, which I guess is your right.

If you think teams weren't aware in October, 5 months ago, that the cap was going to be flat for the next several years, then I don't know what to tell you.

we gave ADA 4.8M and Strome 4.5.. Like I already said, it was an overpayment considering the current market.

The market is depressed for players... This is the first time I can ever remember this happening. The Market is based on what teams will pay for the player. Who is offering Buch that money? I personally don't see the fit anywhere, so I'm asking you, maybe I missed it.

If the Rangers want to outbid themselves, that'd be dumb. 2 years - 4ish M per. He's still restricted as well.

 

[NYblades]

With Larkin only having 2 years left on his deal I would probably stay away from trading for him. They should look to someone who is either signed for longer or explore UFA in the coming years.

 

[Fitzy]

The market is depressed for players... This is the first time I can ever remember this happening.

Between 08-09 and 09-10 there was no significant increase in the cap. The result was a ton of buyouts and veterans (Like Vinny Prospal among many others) available for pennies on the dollar.

Like I mentioned in my previous post, this kind of market could really change the kind of value arbitration eligible RFAs have. There are going to be a lot of cheap, cheap options in UFA unless all of a sudden small market teams get a lot more generous with their spending.

 

[Savant]

I can't help but feel that if Zibanejad is closer to his 2018-2019 form (forget last year), this is a playoff team and a team with the emerging talent to close the gap faster than people think.

So if we swap Zibanejad with someone performing closer to that 2018-19 level, I think we're in a very different place.

This has been a really weird year, but I don't think we're as far off as you might believe. We still have Laf, Kakko, Miller, Lundkvist, Kravtsov, Barron, Chytil, Shesterkin, Fox, Lindgren, Robertson, and Schneider who combined have all of 500 games of NHL experiences between the 12 of them. That's A LOT of talent.

Let's even say the Rangers are three years away from challenging those teams. Someone like Larkin would still be younger than Zibanejad is today. The guy is younger than our rookie starting goalie.

I still think that is a very big commitment to Larkin and I don’t think Detroit would be letting him go if they thought he would be worth the extension he is going to get. I just can’t get past that.

 

[cheech70]

Keeping Buchnevich would be a mistake.

Money wise perhaps he comes in at a fair price, but the things that we suck at collectively? He reallllllly sucks at them.

Re Evaluate

 

[duhmetreE]

Between 08-09 and 09-10 there was no significant increase in the cap. The result was a ton of buyouts and veterans (Like Vinny Prospal among many others) available for pennies on the dollar.

Like I mentioned in my previous post, this kind of market could really change the kind of value arbitration eligible RFAs have. There are going to be a lot of cheap, cheap options in UFA unless all of a sudden small market teams get a lot more generous with their spending.

That's what I'm trying to potray, maybe I'm doing a terrible job communicating it. We are in a Depression for the NHL player

A flat cap in a season is one thing. Another 3-4 years of flat cap is another. With little to no revenue and Orgs in red... DEEP red.

It's going to be really bad for the players the next couple of years IMO... they have to pay the crazy escrow as well, along with their depressed value.. It's a perfect shitstorm for them

 

[BBKers]

End the year something like this:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Chytil-Kakko
Lafreniere-Strome-Kravtsov
Lemieux-Bennett-Gauthier/Blackbeard
Rooney

Trade 2 reclamations as in Howden+ to Calgary for Bennett
If would try to make another trade with Vancouver as well for youngish sandpaper depth on fwd
I Zib were to waive (doubtful) - sending him to Vegas ($$ retained) for one of their young centers and an upper echelon draft pick has to be an option as well.

Get another good 1st round pick
Buyout ADA
Sign all the RFAS to reasonable deals at a MAX of 4 years.
Amass young attractive assets...
Then you have the foundation for a very interesting offseason as capstrapped teams will begin unloading plenty of contracts. And paying dearly for it.