Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXIV: 2021: “The Fun has begun” or “Over & done”?

[mas0764]

Minnesota wants centers badly. A few Wild fans were interested in trading Pit's 1st for Strome. Gorton, pick up the phone quick!!!

Interesting.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Buchnevich is making $3.25 now and is having a great season. And you believe he should make no less than $1m increase? You really think that this is a realistic statement? The kid is going to get $5-5.5. And rightfully so.

And wait? You actually believe that the reason that DeAngelo is not getting moved is his contract and not toxicity? Teams did not need to conduct their own due diligence to see that. They ALL walked away after the due diligence.

I think 6-6.5, personally... 7 years.

 

[mas0764]

That may well be. I started the year believing that barring the wheels completely falling off the bus, that he is finishing the year and will be at the helm to start the year next year. I thought that they would be a bubble team for most of the year, which means that the chances of them making the playoffs were just as good as them missing the playoffs. Given the injuries, the DeAngelo situation, the Panarin situation and the fact that Zibanejad has the same amount of points as Ryan Lindgren, they are about where I expected them to be.

I expected a good deal more lightning out of Kakko and Lafreniere.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

No one is arguing that. I'm arguing who's paying him that.

You can't project value if ignoring that... 25 too... he has very high worth. To anyone.

 

[True Blue]

I expected a good deal more lightning out of Kakko and Lafreniere.

People's personal expectations are entirely up to them. For example, you expected a good deal more out of Lafreniere. To me, not playing 10 months before, his play has been about on par with what I expected. Sure he could have more points, but there is some awful puck luck also going around

 

[mas0764]

Last year, I said that if they need to trade him, it will be a part of something very big. Then they drafted Schneider. Then Lundqvist continued to take steps forward. Then this year began. Then the crap with DeAngelo started.

Evaluations are made on beliefs given what the fact pattern looks like at the time.

Yes but your habitual blind spot is not recognizing that those young kids are gonna be found in the draft and take steps sooner rather than later. "WHO" is your constant hypothetical.

We didn't know who, but it was Schneider, a "future."

 

[NYR Viper]

All depends on Zibanejad's and Chytil's second halves of the season. We'd be bringing in RNH to be a 2c, not the number one guy. If they don't plan on extending Zib/he never recovers his form, and Chytil doesn't progress towards what looks like a #1 center, you're going to end up with a team that has 3 "2nd" line centers again.

I agree.

Here would be the thought process behind that though, and bare with me, it's a lot of shuffling:

Deadline:
To Vegas:
Zubanejad

To NYR:
Krebs + Reaves + Holden + Vegas 1st '21


Off-season:
Rangers sign RNH @ 5.5m for 6 years

Rangers trade Kravtsov + Lemieux + Jones + Vegas 1st '21 for Larkin

Rangers trade Strome to Ottawa for 2nd '21 + 3rd '22

Rangers re-sign Buch @ $5.25m for 4 years


Opening night roster:

Panarin-Larkin-Kaako
Kreider-RNH-Buch
Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier
Barron-Rooney-Reaves
Blackwell

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Hajek/Reunanen-Lundqvist
Holden

 

[mas0764]

Ok you're right. He's on pace for 68 pts, plays PP and PK, has become a 200 ft player and has a bit of an edge to him without taking stupid penalties. I'm sure the market for him will be a Brandon Tanev level contract.

You want comparables?

Oliver Bjorkstrand, a player who has produced less for a shorter time period, just signed a 5 year, $5.4m per year contract in January 2021, as an RFA.

Dadonov signed for 3 years at $5m per year in October 2020 as a UFA.

Burakovsky, 2 years at $4.9m per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

Kevin LaBanc, 4 years at $4.725 per year in October 2020 as an RFA.

I'm one who has advocated trading Buch many times but if you could get him for that LaBanc deal you take that all day. That contract will look like a steal.

 

[Sayba]

Right now 6m would be a discount,

Not a chance I sign him for 6. Trade him for what we can get if that is the number.

 

[Reway10]

There is no way Buch is getting more than 5-5.5 per year, if that's the number, trade him

 

[duhmetreE]

Rask out tonight

 

[RGY]

Rask out tonight

Halak show tonight

 

[DanielBrassard]

I agree.

Here would be the thought process behind that though, and bare with me, it's a lot of shuffling:

Deadline:
To Vegas:
Zubanejad

To NYR:
Krebs + Reaves + Holden + Vegas 1st '21


Off-season:
Rangers sign RNH @ 5.5m for 6 years

Rangers trade Kravtsov + Lemieux + Jones + Vegas 1st '21 for Larkin

Rangers trade Strome to Ottawa for 2nd '21 + 3rd '22

Rangers re-sign Buch @ $5.25m for 4 years


Opening night roster:

Panarin-Larkin-Kaako
Kreider-RNH-Buch
Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier
Barron-Rooney-Reaves
Blackwell

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Hajek/Reunanen-Lundqvist
Holden

Even with a flat cap, I would bet RNH gets closer to 7M or even more. 5.5M is way too low.

 

[Edge]

Even with a flat cap, I would bet RNH gets closer to 7M or even more. 5.5M is way too low.

He's been hanging in that 60-70 point zone for a few years. Your guess is likely closer.

 

[duhmetreE]

He's been hanging in that 60-70 point zone for a few years. Your guess is likely closer.

have you heard anything regarding our RFAs? any numbers floating around?

 

[Profet]

Any word on if the team plans on bringing Kravtsov to NY this season?

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

There is no way Buch is getting more than 5-5.5 per year, if that's the number, trade him

You're 100% entitled to think that... but look, a consistently effective, top-six W, long-considered-to-be 1st. line talent, coming off an ELC isn't going to take 1-2 year deal, which is more appropriate for what you're saying, IMO.

 

[Edge]

have you heard anything regarding our RFAs? any numbers floating around?

Nothing yet.

Any word on if the team plans on bringing Kravtsov to NY this season?

I'd be surprised if he doesn't get a look.

 

[DanielBrassard]

There is no way Buch is getting more than 5-5.5 per year, if that's the number, trade him

That will likely be the number, most of his comparables are in the same range. If the Rangers can sign him for 5M per I would be pretty happy about that.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

To me w Larkin it all comes down to what his next contract is gonna look like.

I think the argument that the NYR already have elite Ws (or at least their only choice is to operate under the assumption that they do) and therefore would be well served with a “1B” center makes sense. Provided that 1B is paid appropriately.

Larkin at ~$7M long term feels about right. $6M even better. Giving up major assets for Larkin at $8-9M would be the tipping point to looking like a really bad deal IMO.

In all likelihood his minutes at ES but more importantly from a pts/$ standpoint the PP will get cut here a la Trouba. They can’t fall into the same trap of valuing a player based on their production under old usage that is likely to change on the NYR.

 

[cheech70]

End the year something like this:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Chytil-Kakko
Lafreniere-Strome-Kravtsov
Lemieux-Bennett-Gauthier/Blackbeard
Rooney

Trade 2 reclamations as in Howden+ to Calgary for Bennett
If would try to make another trade with Vancouver as well for youngish sandpaper depth on fwd
I Zib were to waive (doubtful) - sending him to Vegas ($$ retained) for one of their young centers and an upper echelon draft pick has to be an option as well.

Get another good 1st round pick
Buyout ADA
Sign all the RFAS to reasonable deals at a MAX of 4 years.
Amass young attractive assets...
Then you have the foundation for a very interesting offseason as capstrapped teams will begin unloading plenty of contracts. And paying dearly for it.

Yes and yes no rush...maybe something really big comes along..nice centers out west!!!

 

[Trxjw]

Even with a flat cap, I would bet RNH gets closer to 7M or even more. 5.5M is way too low.

Yeah, even considering the flat cap I'd very, very surprised if RNH wasn't able to get north of what Hayes got from Philly. Centers are always at a premium.

 

[Fitzy]

We lose something like 10 million dollars in dead cap space between this season and next, so it isn't really a flat cap for us.

That said, any player you sign now makes it more difficult to extend crucial players like Fox, Shesterkin, and countless others.

The allure is going to be strong to try to fill our 'now' holes via trades and UFA, but we don't REALLY know what are holes are going to be when the team starts to be a serious playoff contender again. In fact, plenty of rebuilding teams have been doing so for over a decade, without consistently getting any results.

So you kind of have to be patient and play it by ear in a number of ways. I really think that between Panarin and then re-signing Kreider at near market rate, we've used up probably 2 out of 3 major UFA signings that we will be able to afford while keeping the younger players around.

The key will be to do what Chicago did a decade ago (And what we did with Hagelin) and let secondary, rather than major pieces go.

 

[Trxjw]

To me w Larkin it all comes down to what his next contract is gonna look like.

I think the argument that the NYR already have elite Ws (or at least their only choice is to operate under the assumption that they do) and therefore would be well served with a “1B” center makes sense. Provided that 1B is paid appropriately.

Larkin at ~$7M long term feels about right. $6M even better. Giving up major assets for Larkin at $8-9M would be the tipping point to looking like a really bad deal IMO.

In all likelihood his minutes at ES but more importantly from a pts/$ standpoint the PP will get cut here a la Trouba. They can’t fall into the same trap of valuing a player based on their production under old usage that is likely to change on the NYR.

I think that if you get Larkin here and he fits, you're probably looking at production around 75-80 points playing with the talent we have. I can't envision him taking south of $8.5m if he can put up two seasons at that level with us. He could hold out to free agency and have 3 teams offering him that at 1 minute past the hour.

 

[True Blue]

Yes but your habitual blind spot is not recognizing that those young kids are gonna be found in the draft and take steps sooner rather than later. "WHO" is your constant hypothetical.

We didn't know who, but it was Schneider, a "future."

Sure. But he did not require the trade of a first round player to be had. And MOST of the players taken in the draft do not make it.

And again, teams looking to make the playoffs do not trade production for futures. That is exactly how you wind up in your perpetual rebuild.

And lastly, let's even say that trading Buchnevich was all of a sudden embraced by Gorton & JD. The teams who would be looking to add him for the playoffs and beyond are not the teams that are drafting in the top-10 or have farm systems that are over flowing. And the teams that do have the prospects and high picks that you are looking for are probably not contending, so why would they be looking to add a player like him? There are not that many teams like Colorado that are Cup contenders and ALSO have a prospect like Newhook in the system.