Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXI - We are in The End Game now.

[RangerBoy]

Who are they bumping from last year? I guess Columbus and the Isles are possibilities. But, I do expect Florida to be the 4th team from the Atlantic, (granted I expected that last season.)

The Rangers are so young at center and it’s the most important position on the team. The Rangers need to play their young players. They aren’t going to get better on the the 4th line or playing in the AHL. Andersson has done that already. They aren’t going to get better without learning from their mistakes. The Rangers don’t really have enough cap room to have players sitting in the press box. The Rangers don’t have enough cap room to bring in better veteran players. The team is cap strapped. They don’t really have better veteran options on the roster. Where are they going with Strome and Namestnikov playing in the middle? Nowhere.

Their D will still be an issue. Staal stinks. One of Shattenkirk or Smith will still be here. They are below replacement level players. The coach loves both of them. They are counting on young guys like Fox and Hajek who has played 5 NHL games. Fox has not played one minute of pro hockey at any level. There’s only so much Trouba can do by himself. Skjei needs to be better. Who knows what Deangelo will give them?

The goaltending situation is a question mark. Lundqvist still thinks it’s 2012 and he wants to play every game. The goaltending situation is a powder keg if Lundqvist continues to see his level of play drop and the Russians are pushing for more starts.

A successful season for me is the Rangers young players getting better and better as the season progresses.

Jeff Marek said throw some water on them and let them grow.

It looks like a few players like Kreider will probably still be here before the February 24 trading deadline. The Rangers could be looking at another sell off with Kreider and Namestnikov. Get another #1 pick for the 2020 draft for Kreider. The Rangers wind up with their pick being in the top 10 and look at moving up in the lottery.

Everything needs to break right for the Rangers to make the playoffs. It’s very rare when everything breaks right for the Rangers.

 

[Zibanejbread]

 

[Inferno]

If kreider isn't here to start this season I think we will finish in the 7 to 10 range in terms of the draft.

If kreider is here is add 2 or 3 spots.


Our defense, if staal, smith, shatty, trouba, and fox are all here isn't very mobile... You've got DeAngelo skjei and hajek who can skate... The rest are below average skaters.

Trouba makes up for his lack of foot speed with iq, size, positioning and strong gap control.

So his speed isn't a concern for me.

The rest? Yikes.

And we're pretty horrendous up the middle.

That's a recipe for disaster right there but add that all in to a Henrik lundqvist who IMHO wasn't even replacement level last season and that spells disaster.

With all that ice cold water on the team outlook I'm not sure I've ever been as excited for a season as this year, we've got so many really good young players ready to take steps forward, a bonafide super star, and a bonafide superstar in the making.

We're 2 years from going from finishing 7 to 10 in the draft rankings to flipping it and shooting for top 3 in the east.

Just gotta get away from the bad deals and wait out Henrik.

 

[SA16]

It's just safe to assume Smith will be bought out, that's all.

Also, pretty sure the window doesn't open until 5pm today, going off Brooks' tweet when Buch signed.

I haven't seen any info on this but it feels kind of weird to me that they would have the window open at 5PM and not just the start of the business day like everything else.

13.C.2:
(ii) For Clubs who have Club or Player elected Salary Arbitration filings
pursuant to Article 12, within the forty-eight (48) hour period beginning on the third day
following the later of: (i) the Club's receipt of its last salary arbitration award; or (ii) settlement
of its last case (provided such award was received or such settlement occurred prior to 7:00 p.m.
New York time; awards or settlements that occurred or were received at or after 7:00 p.m. New
York time will be deemed to have occurred or received the following business day for purposes
of this provision).

It's written kind of awkwardly. So it starts on Day 3 which would be today (or is it? The contract was announced after 7 PM and it does mention business days). And it never mentions any times other than 48 hours after the start of the window the window closes.

 

[NYR Viper]

A Shattenkirk buyout and a Belesky burial, with ADA and Lemmy taking their QOs gets you the deepest roster for this year.

You are going to hurt next year (the year where you want to take a step) by having $7.5M in deadspace.

What this will allow is for the Rangers to compete as much as they can this year (still don't expect the playoffs with a PK and Defensive team play where it was last year).

They can then sell-off Kreider, Fast, and Names at the deadline. Next year

You have $15M in space, with $7.5M in buyouts.

ADA, Georgie, Strome and Lemmy will need new contracts.

Hypothetically it's:

Ada: 4 x $4.7M
Lemmy: 2 x $2M
Georgie: 3 x $2.5M
Strome: 2 x $4M

That's $13.2M of that $15M that was available. Say the cap goes up by $2M.

So that's $4.2M left.

You will need 3 more NHL forwards with that $4.2M to replace Kreider, Names & Fast.

Okay- fine. Assume Kravstov takes a big step, and Kakko gets even better. You don't miss Chris, but you need bottom 6 depth.

$4.2M That's plenty right?

You sign two really good 4th line PK players. For that price.

But still no proven 2nd line center.

Barron & Miller turn pro and push for spots in the line up.

That scenario above doesn't say playoff team to me, the kids really have to take a step. And not just one. You will need 2 rookie/young defensemen to be good top 4 guys right away.

One of the kids has to work out as a top 6 center.

What you can bank on, is that between Bread and Zib you get 60 goals, and another 70 from Kakko, Kravstov and Buch.

One of Howden, Chytil and Lias has to become a 60 point center, and two rookie/young defensemen need to prove that they can be 22 minute a night defensemen.

That is what having $7.5M in dead space will do to you next year.

See, the difference being that Shattenkirk can actually create a positive effect on the ice though. Staal and Smith don't. Those are the guys to buyout

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I don't buy Brook's line of argument.
I understand why he is making it, after all he is in the business of selling papers...

At the risk of posting something that is already assumed I see a clear path to keeping things cap compliant and retaining just about everyone. I don't post here all that often, but I think we all know whose at risk of departing.

Brendan Smith is a pumpkin
Matt Beleskey is AHL bound
A forward, imho Strome but perhaps Namestnikov or Kreider or "fill in the blank" needs to move too.
My preference is Strome coming off a nice rebound from the frozen tundra of Alberta. He has the experience, can play center and is RFA which should be attractive enough for another NHL team to actually trade NY something it can use such as a pick. Obviously not a high end pick, but considering what Strome cost NY to acquire, a non 1st or 2nd pick is gravy as far as I am concerned.

This also opens up a slot up front for one of the kids.

I think its a win win

Hopefully something is brewing

anyway its been such an awesome offseason to be Rangers fan. I think we deserve it, I know I've been bleeding blue since 78-79 and this "problem" is a good one to be having

I completely agree. Occam's Razor as regards the cap: Smith is bought out, and they try to move either Namestnikov or Strome for the best return possible. If that's a mid-round pick, so be it; better to sell one of them for pennies on the dollar than Kreider. And worse-case scenario, if you find no takers for either, even at the cost of a 7th round pick, you buy out Namestnikov at the end of the window. Boom, $6MM saved, team comfortably under the cap.

(Honestly, if they do have to go worst-case, that means putting Namestnikov on waivers before buying him out, right? Is the league-wide cap situation so bad that Vlad Namestnikov wouldn't get scooped up by some enterprising team rather than risking competing with the rest of the league for his services in order to save a few hundred thousand?)

And what's the downside to this "worst-case" scenario? You forfeit whatever you could have returned for Vlad Namestnikov, which would've been... what? A 2nd round pick? At absolute best? Sure, I'd rather have that pick, but teams have paid a lot more than a 2nd round pick to get cap compliant in the past.

All that being said, I'm optimistic the team doesn't have to go worst-case scenario. Say, the best you can do is Strome at $1MM retained for a 4th. Crappy return, but you're now compliant, and here are your lines:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich – reunited and it feels so good!
Panarin-Chytil-Kravtsov – Panarin as the mentor/insurance blanket for the rookie center. Kravtsov on his right, because of how well they meshed in rookie camp last year.
Namestnikov-Andersson-Kakko – Kakko and Andersson would be a load on the forecheck/in the corners. Takes the pressure off of Andersson to be the focus of the line, especially with the highly touted rookie on one wing and a savvy, all-situations player like Names on the other.
Lemieux-Howden-Fast – love that as a fourth line. Responsible, aggressive, high energy.

Do I think that group is competing for the cup? Not this year, no. Not with the kids still needing a couple of years to develop, not with the D a work in progress, and not with the goaltending situation in flux. But it sets the cap up to be in a good place next year (and especially in the years to follow) and it'll be fun as hell to watch.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Rangers have limited wiggle room with just a Shattenkirk buyout. 22 player roster. 13 forwards. 7 D. 2 goalkeepers. Less than $1M.

Panarin. Kreider. Chytil. Lemieux. Zibanejad. Strome. Andersson. Howden. Namestnikov. Buchnevich. Fast. Kravstov. Kakko. Staal. Skjei. Trouba. Hajek. Deangelo. Smith. Fox. Lundqvist. Georgiev.

If Kakko explodes by winning the Calder Trophy and hits a few other bonuses, the Rangers will have no choice but to carry those bonuses over to the 20-21 cap.

This what happens when drop $11.6M on Panarin and $8M on Trouba when you already have major commitments on the books.

The Rangers better hope and pray Panarin pans out and doesn’t become another Shattenkirk. The Panarin contract is buyout proof.

This has been discussed, should the Rangers sell at the deadline, they will most likely bank a bunch of cap space between the deadline and the end of the year at which point they could absorb those bonuses.

 

[SA16]

This has been discussed, should the Rangers sell at the deadline, they will most likely bank a bunch of cap space between the deadline and the end of the year at which point they could absorb those bonuses.

Hard to bank too much cap space in only 20 games though.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Hard to bank too much cap space in only 20 games though.

Gets a lot easier if you sell off $4.5MM+ (potentially ++) in contracts on or before the TDL, however.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

Hard to bank too much cap space in only 20 games though.

25% of 4 mill is 1 mill, seems like a pretty good savings to me.

 

[SA16]

25% of 4 mill is 1 mill, seems like a pretty good savings to me.

It's less than 4M. He has to be replaced, they could retain some, and 1M hopefully won't cover the bonuses.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

It's less than 4M. He has to be replaced, they could retain some, and 1M hopefully won't cover the bonuses.

Well, that player is likely to be a sub-$1MM player, so it's still $750K of room created. And they're likely to enter the season with $1.5-2.0MM of room to begin with, so the bonuses really aren't that much of a risk.

 

[Kovalev27]

Shattenkirk has to go today. Sorry folks but we need the money right now.

Kreider isn’t being dealt until the deadline the earliest at this point if at all.

Gotta move one of namestnikov or Strome afterwards return doesn’t matter. Namestnikov was a terrible pick up just move on.

sign 48 and 77 and you’re done

 

[BringBackLibertys]

Shattenkirk has to go today. Sorry folks but we need the money right now.

Kreider isn’t being dealt until the deadline the earliest at this point if at all.

Gotta move one of namestnikov or Strome afterwards return doesn’t matter. Namestnikov was a terrible pick up just move on.

sign 48 and 77 and you’re done

You could LITERALLY swap Kreider and Shattenkirk in your statement above and be just as correct (you don't say bought out today, you say gone, so I see it as a trade or a buyout). You don't HAVE to get rid of anyone today, but my money would be on Smith if we did.

 

[NYR Viper]

Hard to bank too much cap space in only 20 games though.

1) That's assuming they have no cap space banked by the time they get to the deadline, which they will. The team won't be all the way up against the cap
2) If they deal Kreider and Namestnikov at the deadline, even if they retain 25% on both, that's ~$6m dealt off. Yes they have to replace them, but it will most likely be young players, so say $2m come sin. That's $4m on the way out, pro-rated. Add that to your banked cap space
3) this also assumes they don't find a taker for anyone else like Strome or Shattenkirk at that time

The bonuses, to me, are not a concern

Now how they get under the cap to begin the season, that's a much larger concern.

 

[RGY]

You could LITERALLY swap Kreider and Shattenkirk in your statement above and be just as correct (you don't say bought out today, you say gone, so I see it as a trade or a buyout). You don't HAVE to get rid of anyone today, but my money would be on Smith if we did.

I think they have to utilize the buyout today. But I agree i think it will be Smith.

 

[Thirty One]

The Rangers are so young at center and it’s the most important position on the team. The Rangers need to play their young players. They aren’t going to get better on the the 4th line or playing in the AHL. Andersson has done that already. They aren’t going to get better without learning from their mistakes. The Rangers don’t really have enough cap room to have players sitting in the press box. The Rangers don’t have enough cap room to bring in better veteran players. The team is cap strapped. They don’t really have better veteran options on the roster. Where are they going with Strome and Namestnikov playing in the middle? Nowhere.

Their D will still be an issue. Staal stinks. One of Shattenkirk or Smith will still be here. They are below replacement level players. The coach loves both of them. They are counting on young guys like Fox and Hajek who has played 5 NHL games. Fox has not played one minute of pro hockey at any level. There’s only so much Trouba can do by himself. Skjei needs to be better. Who knows what Deangelo will give them?

The goaltending situation is a question mark. Lundqvist still thinks it’s 2012 and he wants to play every game. The goaltending situation is a powder keg if Lundqvist continues to see his level of play drop and the Russians are pushing for more starts.

A successful season for me is the Rangers young players getting better and better as the season progresses.

Jeff Marek said throw some water on them and let them grow.

It looks like a few players like Kreider will probably still be here before the February 24 trading deadline. The Rangers could be looking at another sell off with Kreider and Namestnikov. Get another #1 pick for the 2020 draft for Kreider. The Rangers wind up with their pick being in the top 10 and look at moving up in the lottery.

Everything needs to break right for the Rangers to make the playoffs. It’s very rare when everything breaks right for the Rangers.

Young player not developing on the fourth line is a video game thing.

Quinn loves Shattenkirk and Smith? OK.

Lundqvist literally said that Georgiev should be playing at the end of the year because he was playing better.

 

[Vitto79]

I think they have to utilize the buyout today. But I agree i think it will be Smith.

I would agree and a trade w Detroit is my prediction aswell . Maybe Wednesday though

 

[LORDE]

XM Radio about to assess Gorton

 

[BringBackLibertys]

XM Radio about to assess Gorton

I thought they would be on all repeat all summer by now. When was it, I have the on demand and can back up to the exact time it started.

 

[NYRFAN218]

Gonna assume the Rangers get done what they have to get done in terms of the cap this week. After that, gonna be a pretty quiet month or so until camp in terms of news beyond DeAngelo and Lemieux getting their deals.

 

[Cag29]

Self renting Kreider would be the dumbest thing ever.

I think the way you have to look at self rental is you may lose CK 20 as a UFA but we just signed Panarin as a UFA. I prefer to get assets for him but in my mind if we go the self rental route we got Panarin to replace Kreider.

 

[Fitzy]

If we're "Horrendous" up the middle with a true 1C and three very promising young players entering their sophomore seasons then we really need to consider whether the rebuild has been useful at all.

Howden, Chytil, and Andersson isn't a weakness up the middle, it's a strength. There's no magic offseason where the kids are going to immediately go from being 'inexperienced' to being proven. I think we'll get very solid contributions from them this season. If one struggles, Strome/Namestnikov are very solid options at 3C. McKegg at 4C.

Really the only concern I have for the young center core is defensive responsibility. Like I alluded to before, mix the lines. Don't put three one-way guys on a line together. Panarin-Chytil-Buchnevich isn't something we should see.

 

[LORDE]

I thought they would be on all repeat all summer by now. When was it, I have the on demand and can back up to the exact time it started.

Started at 10:15 or 10:20am...
Just finished 10:30am was very fair I would say... gave him a B+ and the other guy gave him A-

Listening tho the B+ should’ve been A- also. Nothing to complain about

 

[Kovalev27]

If we're "Horrendous" up the middle with a true 1C and three very promising young players entering their sophomore seasons then we really need to consider whether the rebuild has been useful at all.

Howden, Chytil, and Andersson isn't a weakness up the middle, it's a strength. There's no magic offseason where the kids are going to immediately go from being 'inexperienced' to being proven. I think we'll get very solid contributions from them this season. If one struggles, Strome/Namestnikov are very solid options at 3C. McKegg at 4C.

Really the only concern I have for the young center core is defensive responsibility. Like I alluded to before, mix the lines. Don't put three one-way guys on a line together. Panarin-Chytil-Buchnevich isn't something we should see.

Seriously behind Zibanestud you’ve got 3 first round picks entering their sophomore seasons. If they suck we failed massively in drafting/trading for them. Someone should be ready to step up as a 50 pt 2nd line center.