Speculation: Roster Building Thread LII: Countdown to Free Agency

[IronBloodedLion]

I feel like Kreider might be some teams "Plan B" if they don't get Panarin.

Once that chip falls I think you'll start seeing guys like Kreider start being moved.

 

[Kovalev27]

Your assumptions are based on the exception to the norm.

Is what you're saying possible, yes. Is what you're saying like, no. In fact, evidence shows that it is highly unlikely.

I am not convincingly saying that it's 100% a foregone conclusion that Kreider will not perform at a high-level into his late 30's. But I'm showing you evidence that players who do, are generally HOF'ers.

You are just saying that you think because Kreider is fast and a big boy that he will be OK. Strong argument.

And my point being all along is Kreider being the freak athlete that he is, is already the exception to the norm. Very few if any are as big fast and strong as this guy is. To assume he’s going to just breakdown the same way a Ryan Callahan might is more absurd than the idea that he may continue to thrive into his 30s. If anything he’s gotten even faster and stronger as he’s gotten older

 

[Clown Fiesta]

The difference between Panarin and Kreider each scoring 28 goals outside Panarin doubling Kreider’s assists is one is dynamic and the other is more or less reliant on his speed.

Panarin in 5 years will still be making plays that Kreider isn’t/won’t be capable of making ever.

I think he’s a safer bet in his early/mid 30’s just based on his skill set.

That said I like Kreider and if he wasn’t due a significant raise and fit better into the timeline would be fine with keeping him. I also don’t think there’s a rush to move him.

Panarin would accelerate the rebuild, but I’m not chomping at the bit to sign him either. We’re in a decent position, we head into 2020 not expecting to win the cup, making the playoffs isn’t out of the realm of possibility but the kids will have to get us there. But we could end up picking in the top 10 again. I’m ok with either of those outcomes.

Panarin makes it more likely that we end up in the middle of the pack not drafting high enough to get an immediate impact player. So signing him should only be done if the Rangers brass think we’re ready to compete again and have a window at a cup in the next 5 years.

To me I think it’s a little premature.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Yea it's just a minimal advantage they have that is never brought up by anyone except the media. Additionally for any non huge contract the difference is extremely low. We'd be talking about roughly a 250k difference from NY to FLA on a 4M contract prior to considering escrow and other fees.



There are no good ones.

You’re off by quite a bit. If the player is living in NYC and paying locals, it’s about $475,000 for NY vs $0 for Florida. If not living in the City, it’s about $330,000.

And then you have the SALT taxes as well that can’t be deducted.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

There is no reason Kreider should be paid less than Hayes and simultaneously there is no reason for us to pay Kreider more than Hayes. It’s that simple, let him go get his bag.

 

[Off Sides]

Brooks is still holding out hope the Rangers give Kreider ~$50M over the next 7 years. We are so lucky the Flyers and AV stepped up to give Hayes $50M or we would be reading the Rangers should bring Hayes back this entire week.

The Rangers have barely talked to Keator about a new contract. They are running out of excuses. Gorton said he wanted to wait until they hired a new president. Like the new president isn’t going to allow Gorton to sign or trade Kreider. JD has been on the job for nearly 6 weeks. Gorton said he wanted to discuss the contract with Keator before going to Vancouver. The draft has come and gone. After the season, Gorton said we have plenty of time to make decisions like Kreider. The season ended nearly 3 months ago.

The tea leaves say Kreider is being traded eventually. Once Hayes signed the one year contract last summer, you knew the Rangers were eventually going to trade him. Brooks had the Rangers signing him right before the deadline or they work out a side deal with Hayes for him to return. They trade him at the deadline and re-sign him on July 1.

Gorton has talked to both Overhardt and Trouba about Trouba’s contract. The Rangers are comfortable with the asking price. A few people here said the Rangers want to wait and see how much money they have before trying to sign Kreider but that’s not the Rangers approach with Trouba. The Rangers have $16M-$17M in cap space and Trouba is getting $8M of that space.

The new excuse is the Rangers want see what Panarin does before making a decision on Kreider.

The Rangers would be crazy to give Kreider a huge extension and ****ing morons to pay Panarin. Let him enjoy the warm Florida sun all year.

AV called Hayes 2x to convince him to sign with the Flyers. Thanks AV.

The Flyers don’t have the space to pay Zuccarello which is a constant thing you hear.

If Gorton said they have plenty of time, perhaps that was referring to keeping Kreider non extended?

I know Brooks has said the Rangers did not want to do that, yet I'm not sure if that was a quote from the Rangers, or if that is just Larry's speculation?

It seems strange to me after looking back on what Brooks has written, he says that is not an option, yet he links a different article he wrote as proof, yet there is no quotes from the Rangers in any of that which state it's not an option to keep him non extended. At least nothing I can find.

The Blueshirts have four options as it comes to the 28-year-old Blueblood winger, as follows: 1) Sign him to an extension over the summer; 2) Trade him as part of a draft deal to snag another first-rounder and prospects; 3) Trade him as part of deal in exchange for a legit top-pair righty defenseman; 4) Allow him to play out the final season of his deal so he becomes rental fodder at the deadline.

Option 4 is out of the question. The Rangers have been there and done that the past two seasons.

https://nypost.com/2019/06/11/rangers-arent-shying-away-from-buyouts-this-summer/



"Been there and done that" only links to this, which is just quotes from players not enjoying the trade deadline stuff with this interjection from Brooks

The Rangers can begin negotiations on an extension for Kreider on July 1. Surely they must know by now whether they will commit to the five or six years at around $6.25 million it would probably take to keep the 27-year-old on Broadway long term. If not, then they may as well move him now, or at the entry draft in Vancouver.
Because the last thing the Rangers need is to start 2019-20 with Kreider reprising the role played this year by Zuccarello and Hayes. The rebuilding must go on, but not that way.

Two years of this is enough.

https://nypost.com/2019/02/23/rangers-need-to-avoid-awkward-chris-kreider-deadline-limbo/

 

[NernieBichols]

The tax rate difference is overblown. Has a player ever said that a major reason he chose a team was because of it? Have we seen players flock to Florida,Tampa,Nashville,Dallas, and Vegas before? We have not but we've seen big FA choose Toronto (Tavares), New York (Richards), San Jose (Karlsson) and those are some of the highest tax brackets around.

Additionally the difference is not even as much as it appears. According to capfriendly a 10M Salary would be worth 6.3M in Florida and 5.1M in NY. However this is not strictly true. They consider it as all 82 games are taxes at one rate and not 41 at the home rate and 41 at varying road rates. If we assume the road rate for all teams is the average US rate of NHL teams (6.6% and this is not totally true as of course the Metropolitan Division is a bit higher than the Atlantic but works for ease) Now that 10M salary is worth 6.1 in Florida and 5.4 in NY. When you account for escrow and such the difference is even less than that. It's not negligible but it's nowhere near this huge difference it's made out to be.

Overblown?

How many free agents have gone to one of these teams in the last 4 years. You think all these guys signed with Vegas bc they are such an up and coming hockey market. Duchene wants Nashville (no tax). Bob and panarin linked to Florida. Karlsson wanted Tampa (why, cuz he could get his money and play with a good team in good weather), all the ex-rangers who signed in Tampa.
Radulov in Dallas a couple years ago.

Kessel wants Arizona. As bobbop said, it’s not tax-free but it feels like it in comparison. Kessel gets a raise in the trade. Where else does he get a raise as part of his trade?

It’s totally shaping the UFA and UFA to be market

And that’s fine by me regarding the players. But the teams should be charged what it would cost the average team to pay out in real $$ to a player as a cap hit. If 3,8 million real cash payout would be a 6.75 cap hit to average team, they should be charged the same cap hit. Basically teams in no-tax states have an additional 10% to spend cap-wise. That’s numbers.

That should not being going on when the next cba is signed

 

[cheech70]

1st trade proposal post draft...................Jost and Kaut for Krieder?

 

[LORDE]

It’s absurd to assume you know what’s going to happen to a 28 year old player in 5 years that’s a freak athlete. But keep rolling out your assumptions while poo pooing mine

U realize the ‘absurdity’ of this post yes?

“Freak” athlete or not... no one cheats time. It’s not an IF he breaks down it’s a when.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Kaut and a 2020 1st for Kreider makes me happy. I think it’s fair for both sides and we can get a quality player next summer with that pick.

 

[JayMan82]

1st trade proposal post draft...................Jost and Kaut for Krieder?

I think that’s too low. I would rather hedge a bet with a first in 2020, a 2nd or 3rd rounder and either Jost or Kaut. Colorado is in a tough division and can be a MacKinnon injury away from the lottery. They may not have goalie insurance either if Gru is a one and done.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

And my point being all along is Kreider being the freak athlete that he is, is already the exception to the norm. Very few if any are as big fast and strong as this guy is. To assume he’s going to just breakdown the same way a Ryan Callahan might is more absurd than the idea that he may continue to thrive into his 30s. If anything he’s gotten even faster and stronger as he’s gotten older

Kreider is at his peak performance age. So it makes sense that he's gotten even faster and stronger up until this point. The problem is, his next contract is going to BEGIN in the years when it becomes normal for a player to break down.

Do you know any 30 year olds who continue to grow? I mean.....this is just completely illogical.

It is probable Kreider will perform for another 3-5 years at a decently high level.

However, it is possible he will begin an earlier decline and it is outright unlikely that he will perform well for another 6-8 years.

 

[Trxjw]

People are underrating Kaut, IMO. I expect an add if he goes in a deal for Kreider without an extension, but it won't be a 1st. Maybe a 2nd or even a 3rd. He's probably on the same prospect tier as a Lias Andersson tight now.

 

[Vitto79]

If no Panarin and Kreider dealt I hope everyone is ok w another same type for year cause the kids will need time and Kratsov becomes the top LW imo

May be better just to take Kreider too the deadline . I sign him if he takes a discount

 

[Kovalev27]

I’m not sure what happened that we came out of this draft not moving CK Vesey Shattenkirk or Namestnikov but this is basically a repeat of last summer with regards to not moving guys and waiting.

We could see one last firesale at this year’s deadline for assets. Kreider Shattenkirk (with one year left will be intriguing if he plays for us this year) Namestnikov Vesey Fast Strome maybe. Lot of guys at the end of their contracts.

2020 is a monster draft. They may want to bottom out one more time.

 

[JayMan82]

People are underrating Kaut, IMO. I expect an add if he goes in a deal for Kreider without an extension, but it won't be a 1st. Maybe a 2nd or even a 3rd. He's probably on the same prospect tier as a Lias Andersson tight now.

Let’s not forget that since the draft is over, the Rangers would need to wait for that asset (the first) which would most definitely diminish its value compared to cashing in on a pick last week while knowing it’s slot.

 

[RGY]

7 years 6.5 per would be my best offer.

Agreed. If he wants more than move him. Its not like he is heading to free agency. You make the offer you are comfortable with.

He is going to be 29 when his new contract starts. He has every right to want to get paid but the reality is he still will be 29. I want him here. I think he adds a dimension that teams struggle to find throughout the league. Fast, big, and physical. If the price right im all in for him to be a Ranger for life. If not you move him in a deal, hopefully for a 1st and a prospect, similar to what Hayes got.

 

[Edge]

People are underrating Kaut, IMO. I expect an add if he goes in a deal for Kreider without an extension, but it won't be a 1st. Maybe a 2nd or even a 3rd. He's probably on the same prospect tier as a Lias Andersson tight now.

I've always felt any negotiation was Kaut or a first, not both.

 

[RGY]

I've always felt any negotiation was Kaut or a first, not both.

And that just wouldnt do it for me.

You make the move at the deadline then. You can catch a team in desperation willing to pay up for the type of game Kreider plays for the playoff run.

 

[Ghost of jas]

You can’t go past six years with Kreider, and I would be hesitant to go past five years.

 

[Fitzy]

The difference between Panarin and Kreider each scoring 28 goals outside Panarin doubling Kreider’s assists is one is dynamic and the other is more or less reliant on his speed.

Panarin in 5 years will still be making plays that Kreider isn’t/won’t be capable of making ever.

Chimera was still outskating everyone on the ice until his 38th birthday.

Unless Kreider sustains major lower body injuries, you can't just assume that he's going to slow substantially by 33.

Using the mean figure for age decline to evaluate all players as equal is one of the more lazy oversimplifications that hf posters implement hundreds of times a day here.

Also- side note, no Kreider isn't dependent on his speed. He scores a crap ton on deflections and his size in front of the net. So it's pretty much 0/2 on this post.

 

[NernieBichols]

I've always felt any negotiation was Kaut or a first, not both.

No doubt
That’s two 1sts for a rental Kreider. That’s not happening

 

[Edge]

And that just wouldnt do it for me.

You make the move at the deadline then. You can catch a team in desperation willing to pay up for the type of game Kreider plays for the playoff run.

What you envision as the return?

 

[Kovalev27]

I've always felt any negotiation was Kaut or a first, not both.

And what else? because that’s a lousy return by itself. That’s a mid first round pick value wise.

 

[Edge]

Chimera was still outskating everyone on the ice until his 38th birthday.

Unless Kreider sustains major lower body injuries, you can't just assume that he's going to slow substantially by 33.

Using the mean figure for age decline to evaluate all players as equal is one of the more lazy oversimplifications that hf posters implement hundreds of times a day here.

Also- side note, no Kreider isn't dependent on his speed. He scores a crap ton on deflections and his size in front of the net. So it's pretty much 0/2 on this post.

I guess the question is, even if he's a fast skater, what kind of player do you think he is?

We keep harping back to the skating. But I think the potential increases to the disappearing acts is a more viable concern.