Speculation: Roster Building Thread LII: Countdown to Free Agency

[Edge]

And what else? because that’s a lousy return by itself. That’s a mid first round pick value wise.

Probably a non-first and/or another piece.

 

[RGY]

What you envision as the return?

1st and a B+ prospect. Maybe another piece depending on how Kreider’s season is going.

 

[Trxjw]

I've always felt any negotiation was Kaut or a first, not both.

Which makes total sense. Kaut isn't some fringe prospect that gets tossed into a deal. I'd expect the Rangers to want a pick they can hedge their bets against but could easily see it straight across.

 

[Edge]

1st and a B+ prospect. Maybe another piece depending on how Kreider’s season is going.

I think I'd probably reverse that.

I think you're probably looking at scenarios where the prospect is higher and the pick is lower.

 

[Avery16]

Brian Boyle is not a very good player anymore why is there such a fascination with bringing him back? We really want to bring in an old, big, slow player who scores barely over 1 point/60 with his defense trending down?

He’s obviously one of Brooks’s sources

 

[QJL]

And what else? because that’s a lousy return by itself. That’s a mid first round pick value wise.

We couldn’t get that lousy return on Friday. My hope is we somehow get that value at this point. Those who think something like 2020 1st + Kaut/Jost are out to lunch. Not happening.

 

[Kovalev27]

Those returns do nothing for me. He’s more valuable resigned than for what I’m seeing here. Guys with that size strength and speed don’t grow on trees. He’s also like I’ve said one of the top net front pp guys in the world.

 

[Edge]

Which makes total sense. Kaut isn't some fringe prospect that gets tossed into a deal. I'd expect the Rangers to want a pick they can hedge their bets against but could easily see it straight across.

The aftermath of draft fever.

Last year Kaut would've been seen as a very nice return, and a few days ago people wouldn't have complained about the 16th pick being the centerpiece.

Now Kaut is significantly undervalued, and we want multiple high-end pieces.

I will caution that anyone expecting a deal like Kaut + a 2020 first is likely to be disappointed. Fair warning.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Chimera was still outskating everyone on the ice until his 38th birthday.

Unless Kreider sustains major lower body injuries, you can't just assume that he's going to slow substantially by 33.

Using the mean figure for age decline to evaluate all players as equal is one of the more lazy oversimplifications that hf posters implement hundreds of times a day here.

Also- side note, no Kreider isn't dependent on his speed. He scores a crap ton on deflections and his size in front of the net. So it's pretty much 0/2 on this post.

Chimera wasn't getting paid 7 million dollars per year.

It's not about whether Kreider will be useful or not in his 30's. Someone is about to pay him handsomely. And I have no interest in paying a glorified Chimera 7 million per.

The other issue is when Kreider isn't scoring goals, he's basically useless. He's not a great defender. He's not a good penalty killer. It would be different if he had Hagelin or Grabner skills, but if he declines in his goal scoring ways, he's not going to be incredibly useful.

 

[brians1128]

I’m not sure what happened that we came out of this draft not moving CK Vesey Shattenkirk or Namestnikov but this is basically a repeat of last summer with regards to not moving guys and waiting.

We could see one last firesale at this year’s deadline for assets. Kreider Shattenkirk (with one year left will be intriguing if he plays for us this year) Namestnikov Vesey Fast Strome maybe. Lot of guys at the end of their contracts.

2020 is a monster draft. They may want to bottom out one more time.

I said the same thing a few days back. There is still a year's worth of business to do. 2020 is gonna be the bottom, it might not be in terms of draft pick wise but in terms of dealing ufa's and having nothing else to sell and working completely towards building. 2020's top 10 and even past that looks very very good at this point

 

[Clown Fiesta]

Chimera was still outskating everyone on the ice until his 38th birthday.

Unless Kreider sustains major lower body injuries, you can't just assume that he's going to slow substantially by 33.

Using the mean figure for age decline to evaluate all players as equal is one of the more lazy oversimplifications that hf posters implement hundreds of times a day here.

Also- side note, no Kreider isn't dependent on his speed. He scores a crap ton on deflections and his size in front of the net. So it's pretty much 0/2 on this post.

Skating fast and standing in front of the net are still not equivalent to Panarin’s talent as a whole. Kreider can be the fastest player in the world at 40 it doesn’t change the fact that he’s not nearly as dynamic or as good of a playmaker as Panarin.

Hence Panarin should be the more useful player in 5 years.

Which was the point I was making.

So you’re pretty much 0/2 on this post.

 

[NernieBichols]

I’ll take the better player over the better pick at this point. Kreiders a rental. If he doesn’t resign with the rangers, I think he heads back to Boston.
I’d rather kaut straight up then a mid-low 1st and B-/C+ prospect.

Kaut isn’t likely to become as good as Kreider. But in his own way seems similar to Kreider in a plug and play way 2-3 years from now.

 

[NernieBichols]

I said the same thing a few days back. There is still a year's worth of business to do. 2020 is gonna be the bottom, it might not be in terms of draft pick wise but in terms of dealing ufa's and having nothing else to sell and working completely towards building. 2020's top 10 and even past that looks very very good at this point

Never mind, you weren’t exactly saying what I thought you were.

 

[Avery16]

U realize the ‘absurdity’ of this post yes?

“Freak” athlete or not... no one cheats time. It’s not an IF he breaks down it’s a when.

I think Selanne just felt strange to still be playing so old. Probably couldve kept on for another decade.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I said the same thing a few days back. There is still a year's worth of business to do. 2020 is gonna be the bottom, it might not be in terms of draft pick wise but in terms of dealing ufa's and having nothing else to sell and working completely towards building. 2020's top 10 and even past that looks very very good at this point

2020 is insane. Like 15 deep with A quality guys insane.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Kreider has great speed but the more valuable aspect of his game to me is his net front play. He’s an elite net front player. TSN ran stats last summer and I believe Kreider was the best net front tipper and had scored the most deflection goals in the last few years. More than Crosby and Pavelski and JVR and other players frequently considered among the best.

This is why I think he will age better than some ppl think. Sure his Speed is a huge aspect of his game, but when it starts to go he’s still gonna be an elite net front guy. Pavelski makes Stepan look like McDavid with his slow foot speed but his play within 10 feet of the net makes him still incredibly effective.

I don’t think we should sign CK to 7.5x7 or anything but I would give him 6.5X6 in a heartbeat.

 

[JimmyG89]

I think I'd probably reverse that.

I think you're probably looking at scenarios where the prospect is higher and the pick is lower.

And I think for this team that is perfect. We've been drafting for the last two years building assets, and if we're going to begin looking to high end assets being available, we're going to get that in other team's prospects, not picks.

Kaut would be a very nice get for this team. I'm sure we'd be interested in Bowers after Quinn recruited him at BU. He would know quite a bit about the player his is and how he would fit in with the current and future team. Bowers is not as highly touted as Kaut. I'd think a trade like:

Kaut + conditional 2nd (becomes 1st if he re-signs OR if they make the WCF) for Kreider OR Bowers + 1st for Kreider.

I could see Colorado doing either. Not sure people here would like it, due to we could have gotten 16 (Newhook) + prospect for him.

 

[Fitzy]

2020 is insane. Like 15 deep with A quality guys insane.

Which is what makes the potential of Zucc not signing in Dallas truly unfortunate.

 

[LORDE]

Anyone here claiming that other posters ‘can’t say for sure’ if Kreider will break down, slow down, be less effective, etc by comparing him to other players are literally contrarians.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Just to add, one of the reasons I wasn't so negative about Rick Nash's contract when he was here, was because even when he wasn't scoring goals, he was adding immense on-ice value. He was arguably one of the best PK'ers in the league. He opened up tons of space for other guys. And he was incredible defensively.

Kreider does none of that. He pots 20-30 goals a year. He's fast. And has strong net-front presence on power plays. But what else? What happens if his offensive skills decline even marginally? Then we're stuck paying 7 mil to a 15-15-30 player. It's not hard to foresee such a scenario.

He's had a host of injuries in recent years. The blood clot issue concerns me. It's no foregone conclusion his body will hold up despite him being some kind of 'freak.'

Again, it's not to say Kreider is certainly going to break down. But based on historical evidence, along with the fact that he brings little else when he's not producing, I have no interest in taking the risk of signing him to a high dollar/high-term contract.

If he wants 4-5 years at 7 million, I'd consider it. But I don't think he'll accept that (nor should he) and I don't want to give him anything more.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Which is what makes the potential of Zucc not signing in Dallas truly unfortunate.

Yeah if it plays out that way for sure.

I still think he signs there. They aren't too far off.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

I don't think we are in on Panarin purely because of the numbers this year.

Failing to move any of Strome/Vesey/Names/Shattenkirk/Kreider at the draft has put us in a position that if we were to sign Panarin, we would absolutely have to trade at least 2 of those guys to make room. This forces us to give up all leverage in trade negotiations because we would absolutely need a deal to get done to get under the cap. To me, that doesn't seem like Gorton's style.

The other option is to use buyout to clear the space this year, but that seems too shortsighted.

At this point I do not see Panarin happening.

 

[DutchShamrock]

If the conversation is about building the best team and a hole absolutely needs to be addressed now, I would rather overpay a center based on success in the league and organization need. If we should wait, and we can maybe use this season to evaluate what this organization has on the cusp after 3 summers of acquiring assets, I would just as soon pass on all big free agents.

I guess I don't agree with the notion it's ok to overpay panarin by $2m but overpaying Duchene $2m is madness. His total bill will be less, we need centers and we have a bunch of top 6 wing prospects/players. I'm not for Duchene, but if I use the panarin logic I key in on him first. $2m more than you would like, probably not his first choice to sign here but we should talk, 28 y/o, "no comparable to him will be available for years".

Just my opinion, but if I can be comfortable with passing on Duchene because of the team's window, sticker shock and age, despite a true need, I am totally comfortable with passing on Panarin.

 

[Fitzy]

Kreider has great speed but the more valuable aspect of his game to me is his net front play. He’s an elite net front player. TSN ran stats last summer and I believe Kreider was the best net front tipper and had scored the most deflection goals in the last few years. More than Crosby and Pavelski and JVR and other players frequently considered among the best.

This is why I think he will age better than some ppl think. Sure his Speed is a huge aspect of his game, but when it starts to go he’s still gonna be an elite net front guy. Pavelski makes Stepan look like McDavid with his slow foot speed but his play within 10 feet of the net makes him still incredibly effective.

I don’t think we should sign CK to 7.5x7 or anything but I would give him 6.5X6 in a heartbeat.

Good post.

People act like Kreider's streakiness is somehow uniquely bad. Pretty much every forward who isn't a PPG first liner (Of which there are few) in the NHL goes through stretches of productivity and empty spells.

He's not JT Miller.

 

[Unusual Suspect]

Those returns do nothing for me. He’s more valuable resigned than for what I’m seeing here. Guys with that size strength and speed don’t grow on trees. He’s also like I’ve said one of the top net front pp guys in the world.

As always, there is truth here but not enough of it which is why I've been on both sides of this fence. First, he's a brilliant asset when he makes full use of HIS assets, but that's maybe 30-40 games per year... another 20-25 he's just missing in action, and the balance he's literally missing FROM action. He gets hurt enough that it's easy to project some accumulated effects over the next 5-6 years.

I DO think the guy has important leadership credentials from what little I see and hear, that a young team needs support from a handful of franchise veterans like him, and that he has capabilities that are in the vicinity of elite. But I no longer believe in any capacity to grow his game and point totals, expect him to stay plateaued a little while longer and then tail off, and I'm currently VERY interested in what we can get in return as opposed to giving him a 6 or 7 year deal at big money. I also don't like polluting the atmosphere with lame duck players, however well they handle the circumstance, so I feel like this summer would be the appropriate time to either move him or extend him. But if it becomes a TDL deal instead, not a big deal.