Speculation: Roster Building Thread LII: Countdown to Free Agency

[Jaromir Jagr]

Ignoring the age aspects, I do think Uncle Larry makes a great point today.

No one is suggesting Kreider can match Panarin’s elite skill. Funny thing, though, each scored 28 goals last year, though the Columbus winger notched 59 assists to Kid K’s 24. Everyone gets it. All things being equal, you choose Panarin every time.

But nothing about this would be equal. There’d be close to a $5 million difference per year in cost, if not more, by going Panarin’s way. The Rangers would be bringing in an outsider who does his best work on the outside, even if parcels of it can be downright stunning. For $11.5 million per, it better be.

Kreider will save the Rangers probably 4 million in relation to Panarin.

Preferably, I think we should move on from both players. But there's a strong argument to be made for keeping Kreids over Panarin.

 

[SA16]

The tax rate difference is overblown. Has a player ever said that a major reason he chose a team was because of it? Have we seen players flock to Florida,Tampa,Nashville,Dallas, and Vegas before? We have not but we've seen big FA choose Toronto (Tavares), New York (Richards), San Jose (Karlsson) and those are some of the highest tax brackets around.

Additionally the difference is not even as much as it appears. According to capfriendly a 10M Salary would be worth 6.3M in Florida and 5.1M in NY. However this is not strictly true. They consider it as all 82 games are taxes at one rate and not 41 at the home rate and 41 at varying road rates. If we assume the road rate for all teams is the average US rate of NHL teams (6.6% and this is not totally true as of course the Metropolitan Division is a bit higher than the Atlantic but works for ease) Now that 10M salary is worth 6.1 in Florida and 5.4 in NY. When you account for escrow and such the difference is even less than that. It's not negligible but it's nowhere near this huge difference it's made out to be.

 

[darko]

Avs would be extremely tempting for Panarin. Team on the rise that could be really good in a year or 2.

 

[True Blue]

People love to speculate about re-treads. Fans tend to view these players through the lens of when they played here, rather than what they became after they left. They are generally a pretty bad idea and thankfully rarely occur.

Boyle is not a bad 4th line center/role model for the kids. Good in locker room, good on face offs. You could do worse on the 4th.

No one is behaving like Marty McSorley did back in the day. There's just no need for police. If you can get your hands on a Wilson type, that's a huge advantage, but otherwise, getting by with the Smith's, Lemiuex's, ADA's of the world is absolutely fine.

No, there are no McSorleys anymore. But there is an effect to having certain types of players in the lineup. The rest seem to play bigger. I do agree with the team toughness concept. But in such a construct, you need the type of players who bring the fight to the other team.

But there's a strong argument to be made for keeping Kreids over Panarin.

Not a tough argument to make, IMO. Kreider is already a leader and a cornerstone of the locker room.

 

[charliemurphy]

If Kaut is the big piece coming back mark me as a no thanks. I like the kid wanted him in his draft year. But I much rather keep Kreider who will skate like the wind for another 6 to 8 years easily while his bread and butter continues to evolve to being a monster in front of the net.

Woah, at what price?

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

No, there are no McSorleys anymore. But there is an effect to having certain types of players in the lineup. The rest seem to play bigger. I do agree with the team toughness concept. But in such a construct, you need the type of players who bring the fight to the other team.

I'd argue we have guys who bring the fight to the other team. Lemieux. ADA. Smith. We were a tough team last year, even without any giant beast. We were tough the year we went to the cup finals, and that was with Carcillo and Dorsett, two agitators, playing that role. We don't need giants who can't do anything but plod around and fight. Those days are long gone.

 

[Edge]

The tax rate difference is overblown. Has a player ever said that a major reason he chose a team was because of it? Have we seen players flock to Florida,Tampa,Nashville,Dallas, and Vegas before? We have not but we've seen big FA choose Toronto (Tavares), New York (Richards), San Jose (Karlsson) and those are some of the highest tax brackets around.

Additionally the difference is not even as much as it appears. According to capfriendly a 10M Salary would be worth 6.3M in Florida and 5.1M in NY. However this is not strictly true. They consider it as all 82 games are taxes at one rate and not 41 at the home rate and 41 at varying road rates. If we assume the road rate for all teams is the average US rate of NHL teams (6.6% and this is not totally true as of course the Metropolitan Division is a bit higher than the Atlantic but works for ease) Now that 10M salary is worth 6.1 in Florida and 5.4 in NY. When you account for escrow and such the difference is even less than that. It's not negligible but it's nowhere near this huge difference it's made out to be.

I kind of feel like those states use it as their competitive advantage, just like New York uses things to its advantage, and California does the same, etc. etc.

I've found the whole income tax angle is never an issue when teams in those markets suck. The advantage Florida has today is the same advantage it had 5 years ago when no one gave a crap about them.

 

[Kovalev27]

How many guys are absolute freak athletes like CK? Not many. Probably about the same amount that can play high level sports till they are 35 or so. And again he’s evolving to where his net front game is even more important to the team than his speed.

 

[Kovalev27]

Woah, at what price?

If the hit is lower I’d give him more term. If the hit is higher he’d have to take the term down.

 

[Off Sides]

I know the Rangers do not seem to like the idea, yet I think them keeping Kreider non extended would make for a happy compromise.

They can use him as a vet for now, his prorated cap hit and their ability to retain at the deadline could make him a very desirable rental especially given the cap came in lesser than many teams, especially the contenders would have liked.

Of course the risk is he could be injured come deadline time, or has a down year, yet that still seems less risky than either extending him or signing someone else for 7 years.

I mean if a trade materializes and it makes sense sooner, that is probably a better idea, yet if not it seems like the lesser of the risky options.

 

[ChrisKreider20]

Long time not posting:
If we trade Kreider I'll never forget his entry into the league. That playoff run - he comes in a scores 5 goals.

Anyways: I saw that Strome is being pegged in as a 2nd liner on some projections... I'm assuming we will sign a centre?

 

[RangerBoy]

Brooks is still holding out hope the Rangers give Kreider ~$50M over the next 7 years. We are so lucky the Flyers and AV stepped up to give Hayes $50M or we would be reading the Rangers should bring Hayes back this entire week.

The Rangers have barely talked to Keator about a new contract. They are running out of excuses. Gorton said he wanted to wait until they hired a new president. Like the new president isn’t going to allow Gorton to sign or trade Kreider. JD has been on the job for nearly 6 weeks. Gorton said he wanted to discuss the contract with Keator before going to Vancouver. The draft has come and gone. After the season, Gorton said we have plenty of time to make decisions like Kreider. The season ended nearly 3 months ago.

The tea leaves say Kreider is being traded eventually. Once Hayes signed the one year contract last summer, you knew the Rangers were eventually going to trade him. Brooks had the Rangers signing him right before the deadline or they work out a side deal with Hayes for him to return. They trade him at the deadline and re-sign him on July 1.

Gorton has talked to both Overhardt and Trouba about Trouba’s contract. The Rangers are comfortable with the asking price. A few people here said the Rangers want to wait and see how much money they have before trying to sign Kreider but that’s not the Rangers approach with Trouba. The Rangers have $16M-$17M in cap space and Trouba is getting $8M of that space.

The new excuse is the Rangers want see what Panarin does before making a decision on Kreider.

The Rangers would be crazy to give Kreider a huge extension and f***ing morons to pay Panarin. Let him enjoy the warm Florida sun all year.

AV called Hayes 2x to convince him to sign with the Flyers. Thanks AV.

The Flyers don’t have the space to pay Zuccarello which is a constant thing you hear.

 

[charliemurphy]

If the hit is lower I’d give him more term. If the hit is higher he’d have to take the term down.

C'mon... lets see some numbers.
What would you sign Kreider to for 6 years? 7 years? 8 years?

 

[SA16]

I kind of feel like those states use it as their competitive advantage, just like New York uses things to its advantage, and California does the same, etc. etc.

I've found the whole income tax angle is never an issue when teams in those markets suck. The advantage Florida has today is the same advantage it had 5 years ago when no one gave a crap about them.

Yea it's just a minimal advantage they have that is never brought up by anyone except the media. Additionally for any non huge contract the difference is extremely low. We'd be talking about roughly a 250k difference from NY to FLA on a 4M contract prior to considering escrow and other fees.

Long time not posting:
If we trade Kreider I'll never forget his entry into the league. That playoff run - he comes in a scores 5 goals.

Anyways: I saw that Strome is being pegged in as a 2nd liner on some projections... I'm assuming we will sign a centre?

There are no good ones.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

If Kaut is the big piece coming back mark me as a no thanks. I like the kid wanted him in his draft year. But I much rather keep Kreider who will skate like the wind for another 6 to 8 years easily while his bread and butter continues to evolve to being a monster in front of the net.

You don’t think that net front stuff is going to negatively affect his longevity and effectiveness?

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Long time not posting:
If we trade Kreider I'll never forget his entry into the league. That playoff run - he comes in a scores 5 goals.

Anyways: I saw that Strome is being pegged in as a 2nd liner on some projections... I'm assuming we will sign a centre?

I think Chytil will be given a lot of rope to be the 2C

 

[Kovalev27]

7 years 6.5 per would be my best offer.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

How many guys are absolute freak athletes like CK? Not many. Probably about the same amount that can play high level sports till they are 35 or so. And again he’s evolving to where his net front game is even more important to the team than his speed.

There are 15 forwards who played in the NHL last year that are older than 34. 5 of them played less than 5 games, so I'm going to leave them out. The rest of the list:

Cullen
Thornton - HOF
Marleau - HOF
Kunitz
Hendricks
Williams
Pominville
Koivu
Kovalchuk - HOF
Spezza

Of those players, there are only several that were effective and all of them, other than Williams, are likely to end up in the HOF.

Players do not play until they are 35 or 36 at effective levels. And the ones who do, were generally elite level players. Kreider is not elite, never has been and likely never will be.

It is absurd to assume something that generally happens only a micro-percentage of the time, will actually occur.

 

[Kovalev27]

You don’t think that net front stuff is going to negatively affect his longevity and effectiveness?

Nah not really. He hasn’t had any issues related to that part of his game.

 

[Mac n Gs]

As much as I love Kreider and genuinely don’t want to see him go, I am absolutely never going down the whole “elite athlete into his late 30s” rabbit hole after the MSL ordeal. Age is age, and each body responds differently. I just don’t want us getting caught paying Kreider elite 2nd line LW money when he’s providing us 3rd line value. If we can get him on a 4 or 5 year deal? Fine, but that’s gonna be a no from me if we’re looking at 7 or 8 years.

 

[Kovalev27]

There are 15 forwards who played in the NHL last year that are older than 34. 5 of them played less than 5 games, so I'm going to leave them out. The rest of the list:

Cullen
Thornton - HOF
Marleau - HOF
Kunitz
Hendricks
Williams
Pominville
Koivu
Kovalchuk - HOF
Spezza

Of those players, there are only several that were effective and all of them, other than Williams, are likely to end up in the HOF.

Players do not play until they are 35 or 36 at effective levels. And the ones who do, were generally elite level players. Kreider is not elite, never has been and likely never will be.

It is absurd to assume something that generally happens only a micro-percentage of the time, will actually occur.

It’s absurd to assume you know what’s going to happen to a 28 year old player in 5 years that’s a freak athlete. But keep rolling out your assumptions while poo pooing mine

 

[Kovalev27]

It’s also silly to not expect there will be some slip on those last few years no ones contract running into their 30s is perfect from year 1 thru year 7

 

[SA16]

What makes Kreider particularly different at the time of his FA than guys like Lucic, Ladd, Eriksson and Okposo? They were all similar level players at the time. Kreider is fast and some of those guys aren't but that's just one thing.

 

[NJRangers35]

Brooks is still holding out hope the Rangers give Kreider ~$50M over the next 7 years. We are so lucky the Flyers and AV stepped up to give Hayes $50M or we would be reading the Rangers should bring Hayes back this entire week.

The Rangers have barely talked to Keator about a new contract. They are running out of excuses. Gorton said he wanted to wait until they hired a new president. Like the new president isn’t going to allow Gorton to sign or trade Kreider. JD has been on the job for nearly 6 weeks. Gorton said he wanted to discuss the contract with Keator before going to Vancouver. The draft has come and gone. After the season, Gorton said we have plenty of time to make decisions like Kreider. The season ended nearly 3 months ago.

The tea leaves say Kreider is being traded eventually. Once Hayes signed the one year contract last summer, you knew the Rangers were eventually going to trade him. Brooks had the Rangers signing him right before the deadline or they work out a side deal with Hayes for him to return. They trade him at the deadline and re-sign him on July 1.

Gorton has talked to both Overhardt and Trouba about Trouba’s contract. The Rangers are comfortable with the asking price. A few people here said the Rangers want to wait and see how much money they have before trying to sign Kreider but that’s not the Rangers approach with Trouba. The Rangers have $16M-$17M in cap space and Trouba is getting $8M of that space.

The new excuse is the Rangers want see what Panarin does before making a decision on Kreider.

The Rangers would be crazy to give Kreider a huge extension and ****ing morons to pay Panarin. Let him enjoy the warm Florida sun all year.

AV called Hayes 2x to convince him to sign with the Flyers. Thanks AV.

The Flyers don’t have the space to pay Zuccarello which is a constant thing you hear.

i want panarin so bad after reading this

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

It’s absurd to assume you know what’s going to happen to a 28 year old player in 5 years that’s a freak athlete. But keep rolling out your assumptions while poo pooing mine

Your assumptions are based on the exception to the norm.

Is what you're saying possible, yes. Is what you're saying like, no. In fact, evidence shows that it is highly unlikely.

I am not convincingly saying that it's 100% a foregone conclusion that Kreider will not perform at a high-level into his late 30's. But I'm showing you evidence that players who do, are generally HOF'ers.

You are just saying that you think because Kreider is fast and a big boy that he will be OK. Strong argument.