Speculation: Roster Building Thread LII: Countdown to Free Agency

[Off Sides]

I think the concern in them keeping all the pending UFAs, what if they are in/near playoff position at/near next deadline?

Self renting would seem futile, yet them selling while in position I don't think would fly either.

Then again maybe they have decided to buck convention and would sell anyway. St Louis did it with Shattenkirk once.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

People love to speculate about re-treads. Fans tend to view these players through the lens of when they played here, rather than what they became after they left. They are generally a pretty bad idea and thankfully rarely occur.



Imagine that the 3 richest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 50% of the population? Just for perspective, 3 Americans have more money than the bottom 100 million+ combined. There's a reason higher taxes on the rich makes sense. It almost always leads to extreme political discontent or revolution if it gets too out of whack.

The taxes aren't the problem, its the NHL's way of handling them that is.



Policeman? This isn't the stone ages. Toughness is not defined by dropping the gloves any longer. IN fact, I'd argue team toughness (which the Rangers displayed a lot of last year despite their lack of an enforcer) is far more important than having one deterrent.

No one is behaving like Marty McSorley did back in the day. There's just no need for police. If you can get your hands on a Wilson type, that's a huge advantage, but otherwise, getting by with the Smith's, Lemiuex's, ADA's of the world is absolutely fine.

I truly wonder when people will come to the realization that having a Colton Orr, Boogaard, Brashear, etc. is no longer a smart move and actually hurts the team.

Not to get too off topic but I could care less that 3 families apparently have the most wealth. Who are they? Bezos, Gates, and Buffett? Honestly, them being billionaires has no impact on my life. High taxes, that does impact my life. I need to ask myself what am I doing with my life to improve my situation. My neighbor could be Bezos, he could have 20 helicopters and I have 0, how does that affect me? Not at all. I have no issue with any of those men being wealthy, why? Because they became wealthy by providing a service to the public. Bezos with Amazon, Gates with Microsoft. They had an idea, they made it work and provide services that absolutely changed the world. I have no issue that they are wealthy and successful, none at all. And it’s a trickle down effect. Amazon, Microsoft have tens of thousands of workers. Guess what happens when you tax people to death, jobs get cut, businesses can’t spend profits back into the company. And there’s also one major connection with those 3 men: they all have the same political beliefs, and yet the opposite political party is in the White House, 3 families really controlled everything, they’d control that too, which proves that being wealthy is a good thing. I hope this post isn’t deleted by the mods because it is off topic but not political.

Now about the real topic, states or provinces with higher taxes definitely are at a disadvantage. Rangerboy has said it ad nauseum on here. Tampa, Vegas, Dallas, etc definitely have an advantage when it comes to giving out contracts and I expect that issue to be raised after the 37494727384th NHL lockout.

 

[JayMan82]

The aftermath of draft fever.

Last year Kaut would've been seen as a very nice return, and a few days ago people wouldn't have complained about the 16th pick being the centerpiece.

Now Kaut is significantly undervalued, and we want multiple high-end pieces.

I will caution that anyone expecting a deal like Kaut + a 2020 first is likely to be disappointed. Fair warning.

Do you see a situation where the Rangers produce a package for Nylander?

 

[Fitzy]

I don't think we are in on Panarin purely because of the numbers this year.

Failing to move any of Strome/Vesey/Names/Shattenkirk/Kreider at the draft has put us in a position that if we were to sign Panarin, we would absolutely have to trade at least 2 of those guys to make room. This forces us to give up all leverage in trade negotiations because we would absolutely need a deal to get done to get under the cap. To me, that doesn't seem like Gorton's style.

The other option is to use buyout to clear the space this year, but that seems too shortsighted.

At this point I do not see Panarin happening.

Which is why, in my eyes, if management does plan on making a bid for Panarin, you'd see an effort to move money before July 1st.

Looking at the long term cap situation, however, one thing is certain- if they want Panarin, they'll have to deal Kreider. That's too much money on the wings too early when we aren't sure how good some of the kids are gonna get come second contract time.

Even as Staal, Shatty, Smith, Henrik come off the books, we're going to see a lot of raises in and around that point in time. 2nd contract for Shesty, if he comes on the scene and lights up a storm. 1 year to 2nd contracts for Kakko, Kravtsov, Fox.

 

[brians1128]

Yea I'm pretty content that any team missing the playoffs is getting a very good pick, while it's still early the whole first round looks great so having 2 first's to me is key. Hoping the Zucc and Dallas situation work themselves out then were on house money with anything else

 

[brians1128]

Yea I'm pretty content that any team missing the playoffs is getting a very good pick, while it's still early the whole first round looks great so having 2 first's to me is key. Hoping the Zucc and Dallas situation work themselves out then were on house money with anything else

@ZuccsFluffierFluffer

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't think we are in on Panarin purely because of the numbers this year.

Failing to move any of Strome/Vesey/Names/Shattenkirk/Kreider at the draft has put us in a position that if we were to sign Panarin, we would absolutely have to trade at least 2 of those guys to make room. This forces us to give up all leverage in trade negotiations because we would absolutely need a deal to get done to get under the cap. To me, that doesn't seem like Gorton's style.

The other option is to use buyout to clear the space this year, but that seems too shortsighted.

At this point I do not see Panarin happening.

I'm starting to get the sense that Panarin isn't really in on us.

It's more likely than not that we whiff there and Kreider ends up getting traded than the Rangers signing/extending one of them.

 

[GAGLine]

The tax rate difference is overblown. Has a player ever said that a major reason he chose a team was because of it? Have we seen players flock to Florida,Tampa,Nashville,Dallas, and Vegas before? We have not but we've seen big FA choose Toronto (Tavares), New York (Richards), San Jose (Karlsson) and those are some of the highest tax brackets around.

Additionally the difference is not even as much as it appears. According to capfriendly a 10M Salary would be worth 6.3M in Florida and 5.1M in NY. However this is not strictly true. They consider it as all 82 games are taxes at one rate and not 41 at the home rate and 41 at varying road rates. If we assume the road rate for all teams is the average US rate of NHL teams (6.6% and this is not totally true as of course the Metropolitan Division is a bit higher than the Atlantic but works for ease) Now that 10M salary is worth 6.1 in Florida and 5.4 in NY. When you account for escrow and such the difference is even less than that. It's not negligible but it's nowhere near this huge difference it's made out to be.

Teams get around that via signing bonuses. The bonuses are taxed in their home state. Look at Kucherov's contract. 8 years, 44.5 mil in signing bonuses, 31.5 mil in base salaries. Though to be fair, other players can take advantage of that too. Have a house in Florida and have their signing bonuses taxed in Florida, regardless of where they actually play.

 

[Trxjw]

The aftermath of draft fever.

Last year Kaut would've been seen as a very nice return, and a few days ago people wouldn't have complained about the 16th pick being the centerpiece.

Now Kaut is significantly undervalued, and we want multiple high-end pieces.

I will caution that anyone expecting a deal like Kaut + a 2020 first is likely to be disappointed. Fair warning.

I'm figuring on Kaut and maybe a conditional 3rd that bumps to a second based on the Avs season result or maybe a lower end prospect like Greer. Seems like he hasn't been able to win a full time spot there.

 

[Raspewtin]

Do we actually buy that the Rangers won't repeat the deadline firesale again this year? I don't think they will but many of their pieces are prime deadline day targets. The Namestnikovs and Veseys of the world, I feel like, have their highest value at the deadline.

 

[Kovalev27]

I don’t think panarin makes a lot of sense for us especially now with the kakko pick. Pay your Dmen and Centers. 12 mil on a small 28 year old winger that already plays most of his game on the perimeter scares me. And I love the player. I still think we’re going to pitch him hard. But I won’t lose sleep if we miss him. May very well be best for us long term. I think Buchnevich is also going to take another step and I think in all the hoopla over kakko we are forgetting Kravtsov May very well be the best forward prospect not in the nhl outside of Hughes and Kakko.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Not to get too off topic but I could care less that 3 families apparently have the most wealth. Who are they? Bezos, Gates, and Buffett? Honestly, them being billionaires has no impact on my life. High taxes, that does impact my life. I need to ask myself what am I doing with my life to improve my situation. My neighbor could be Bezos, he could have 20 helicopters and I have 0, how does that affect me? Not at all. I have no issue with any of those men being wealthy, why? Because they became wealthy by providing a service to the public. Bezos with Amazon, Gates with Microsoft. They had an idea, they made it work and provide services that absolutely changed the world. I have no issue that they are wealthy and successful, none at all. And it’s a trickle down effect. Amazon, Microsoft have tens of thousands of workers. Guess what happens when you tax people to death, jobs get cut, businesses can’t spend profits back into the company. And there’s also one major connection with those 3 men: they all have the same political beliefs, and yet the opposite political party is in the White House, 3 families really controlled everything, they’d control that too, which proves that being wealthy is a good thing. I hope this post isn’t deleted by the mods because it is off topic but not political.

Now about the real topic, states or provinces with higher taxes definitely are at a disadvantage. Rangerboy has said it ad nauseum on here. Tampa, Vegas, Dallas, etc definitely have an advantage when it comes to giving out contracts and I expect that issue to be raised after the 37494727384th NHL lockout.

You're significantly off-topic. And these debates aren't sanctioned on here. And your post is overtly political (which should also be obvious). I'm happy to continue in PM and have studied the topic of taxes extensively. The beliefs you have are ones that continue to persist despite most evidence illustrating the contrary (if you read anything about the aftermath of last years tax cuts alone you'd see this).

And for the record, I really like what RangerBoy posts, but his word is not gospel. And I generally disagree with the notion that taxes play any sort of enormous role in players' decision to go somewhere. It is more of an added benefit. And large cities also have certain attractions which give them inherent advantages.

It is not a big a deal as you think, nor as others on here make it out to be.

 

[Off Sides]

Do we actually buy that the Rangers won't repeat the deadline firesale again this year? I don't think they will but many of their pieces are prime deadline day targets. The Namestnikovs and Veseys of the world, I feel like, have their highest value at the deadline.

If they can not find trades for those who they would sell, (likely all the pending UFAs at least) I think that option is still very much there.

 

[Edge]

Do you see a situation where the Rangers produce a package for Nylander?

I could, yes.

 

[bobbop]

One of the reasons I think Kreider will have high interest is that he doesn’t come with any flies on him. A lot of teams have looked the other way on off ice issues when it comes to goal scorers. That’s a big reason why I think he will be in high demand.

One thought (my speculation) Arizona is floating Christian Dvorak’s name out there. He is young center, has a long contract starting this year and the Coyotes need to make room for Hayton this year. He was hurt most of the last season but really played well when he came back. He may be a piece to watch. I assume Rangers have seen a lot of him and may like him.

 

[GAGLine]

Do we actually buy that the Rangers won't repeat the deadline firesale again this year? I don't think they will but many of their pieces are prime deadline day targets. The Namestnikovs and Veseys of the world, I feel like, have their highest value at the deadline.

We may see one or two players traded at the deadline, but I don't think Kreider will be one of them. He'll be traded at some point this summer. Vesey has some value now. There has been interest from Buffalo at least, and perhaps other teams. Namestnikov has value too. A lot depends on what other moves we are looking to make, how much cap space we need to open up. Names, Vesey and Strome aren't going to get huge contracts next summer, so the decision as to whether to trade them, re-sign them, or just let them walk isn't as pressing. Trading any of them at the deadline won't have as big of an effect on the team as trading Kreider.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Good post.

People act like Kreider's streakiness is somehow uniquely bad. Pretty much every forward who isn't a PPG first liner (Of which there are few) in the NHL goes through stretches of productivity and empty spells.

He's not JT Miller.

Yep and even when he goes on his invisible streaks, he still drives play and is an effective puck retriever and board player.

JT is a good comp to bring up, CK is certainly not that. JT will disappear and bring nothing to the table but boneheaded giveaways when he’s not producing.

 

[RGY]

I think the concern in them keeping all the pending UFAs, what if they are in/near playoff position at/near next deadline?

Self renting would seem futile, yet them selling while in position I don't think would fly either.

Then again maybe they have decided to buck convention and would sell anyway. St Louis did it with Shattenkirk once.

And Stastny to a degree

 

[Edge]

One of the reasons I think Kreider will have high interest is that he doesn’t come with any flies on him. A lot of teams have looked the other way on off ice issues when it comes to goal scorers. That’s a big reason why I think he will be in high demand.

One thought (my speculation) Arizona is floating Christian Dvorak’s name out there. He is young center, has a long contract starting this year and the Coyotes need to make room for Hayton this year. He was hurt most of the last season but really played well when he came back. He may be a piece to watch. I assume Rangers have seen a lot of him and may like him.

Arizona was supposedly never out of the mix for Kreider, though they weren't as active with the Rangers as the draft grew closer. But I think they're very much still in the mix.

 

[Greg02]

For those of you who are curious, the entirety of the Personal Life section on his Wikipedia page reads, "Christian Dvorak is not related to former NHL player Radek Dvorak."

 

[bernmeister]

With the draft GDT closed, time to start a new Roster Building Thread.
Any predictions for how many more we’ll burn through prior to the year flipping on July 1?

A thread has already been started

Oops. Guess I, um, “missed” it.
Miss, please close/delete.

There has?

Yes. By a certain poster known for making outlandish proposals...

Uh. Can the main thread be started by someone else then...better yet it really should only be started by a mod.

Who like half the board has on ignore.

Seconded

Although I am currently and unjustifiably personna non grata from roster build threads at our board, which is a discussion for another time and place, including with the powers that be, I make this post for the justified reason to clarify myself absolved from the misinformation above.

This thread was initially created by someone, presumably a mod or admin, deciding to use it for the basis of a roster building thread.

I did not create the post as rbt.
I created it as an academic question on Shatty exit in a standalone thread. Which ?, btw, has still not been answered.

Whether the mod/admin thought it was time to attempt to return Lazarus to the living, given many posters invited me in other threads to be welcome, and welcomed to post, or as is more likely, it was determined that using that as a basis for rbt would have saved space by consolidating, or if it was a combo of both, it was NOT on me.

Yet the above, and some from the end of the originating Shattenkirk thread, were adamant, that somehow I was wrong, and was the culprit here. All because haters gonna hate.
You, not I were wrong, sloppily jumping to an erroneous conclusion.

I see half the board, even if they disagree with me, is of an open mind, and the other half ....is not.

Do what you wish, but beware and remember, you reap what you sow.

Today I am penalized b'c I will not capitulate to the herd on Nieves, and now there is a coalescing on pushing to move Kreider cheap or Deangelo not at all, when it is arguably factual all players are assets, all have a price, and there should be open minded discussion of what are good offers or not to move them.

Today it is me.
Tomorrow it will be somebody else.

If there continues to be antagonism this will lead to a toxic environment.
If some promote ostracizing anyone over freedom of speech and open mindedness, in violation of the spirit if not the letter of all our HFB rules, then such pollution does not serve any of us well.

Do some soul searching, and guide yourselves accordingly.

In closing, we approach the 4th of July.
After Washington, who singularly could unify across the board, our greatest founding fathers were arguably Hamilton and John Adams, who particularly was excoriated for insisting on independence, when early on many of the privileged in Congress just wanted to resolve their dispute with the king --- a tyrant.
We are a country at all, and a better nation, b'c of Adams/Hamilton.

In their spirit, I defy the herd.
By all means, let those who agree or disagree with me be at liberty to say so.
But let us be civil with each other, mindful there is a place in society for both the majority AND minority opinion, opinions which change their positions as updated info becomes available. Failure to go there is not good.

Maybe not this thread but I will see you all around.

bern

 

[darko]

Arizona are stupid if they trade Dvorak for Kreider. Would Kreider re-sign there? Just build with Stepan, Dvorak, Hayton down the middle.

 

[NernieBichols]

Although I am currently and unjustifiably personna non grata from roster build threads at our board, which is a discussion for another time and place, including with the powers that be, I make this post for the justified reason to clarify myself absolved from the misinformation above.

This thread was initially created by someone, presumably a mod or admin, deciding to use it for the basis of a roster building thread.

I did not create the post as rbt.
I created it as an academic question on Shatty exit in a standalone thread. Which ?, btw, has still not been answered.

Whether the mod/admin thought it was time to attempt to return Lazarus to the living, given many posters invited me in other threads to be welcome, and welcomed to post, or as is more likely, it was determined that using that as a basis for rbt would have saved space by consolidating, or if it was a combo of both, it was NOT on me.

Yet the above, and some from the end of the originating Shattenkirk thread, were adamant, that somehow I was wrong, and was the culprit here. All because haters gonna hate.
You, not I were wrong, sloppily jumping to an erroneous conclusion.

I see half the board, even if they disagree with me, is of an open mind, and the other half ....is not.

Do what you wish, but beware and remember, you reap what you sow.

Today I am penalized b'c I will not capitulate to the herd on Nieves, and now there is a coalescing on pushing to move Kreider cheap or Deangelo not at all, when it is arguably factual all players are assets, all have a price, and there should be open minded discussion of what are good offers or not to move them.

Today it is me.
Tomorrow it will be somebody else.

If there continues to be antagonism this will lead to a toxic environment.
If some promote ostracizing anyone over freedom of speech and open mindedness, in violation of the spirit if not the letter of all our HFB rules, then such pollution does not serve any of us well.

Do some soul searching, and guide yourselves accordingly.

In closing, we approach the 4th of July.
After Washington, who singularly could unify across the board, our greatest founding fathers were arguably Hamilton and John Adams, who particularly was excoriated for insisting on independence, when early on many of the privileged in Congress just wanted to resolve their dispute with the king --- a tyrant.
We are a country at all, and a better nation, b'c of Adams/Hamilton.

In their spirit, I defy the herd.
By all means, let those who agree or disagree with me be at liberty to say so.
But let us be civil with each other, mindful there is a place in society for both the majority AND minority opinion, opinions which change their positions as updated info becomes available. Failure to go there is not good.

Maybe not this thread but I will see you all around.

bern

And here it is I just always thought ‘Bern’ was a pothead

 

[Avery16]

I think the concern in them keeping all the pending UFAs, what if they are in/near playoff position at/near next deadline?

Self renting would seem futile, yet them selling while in position I don't think would fly either.

Then again maybe they have decided to buck convention and would sell anyway. St Louis did it with Shattenkirk once.

Easy to sell on a Shattenkirk when you have a Pietrangelo that has started to play above and a Parayko that is playing below. Was just a smart hockey move, less of a sell off.

 

[bobbop]

Arizona are stupid if they trade Dvorak for Kreider. Would Kreider re-sign there? Just build with Stepan, Dvorak, Hayton down the middle.

They see Schmaltz as a center