Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2022-23): The Puck is Prepared to be Mounted

[kinger8998]

The Rangers will not have much left in the organization if they keep going for it every season. The Rangers will need to keep their first round picks and play them because the current group isn't good enough right now and there is no one besides Othmann who is guaranteed to play in this league. People want to trade him for a rental too. Some of their older players will only get worse in the next few seasons and you want to keep trading 1st round picks for only 40 days or more.

I'd much rather trade ONE of our TWO (that means we would still have ONE for all you people that treat 1st rounders like an addicting drug) 1st round picks in the final season we are likely able to add someone worth a 1st than sit on out hands.

This team has been tanked by a bad stretch in which the confidence was down and you could see things spiraling. Good teams go through bad stretches.

The facts: we are top 10 in the league in terms of controlling play. Unfortuantely this is a results league, but we are doing the right things on ice to give us the chances to correct this. Neither goalie has been at their best, and poor games whether from Halak or Igor have cost us points. We lead the league in posts him. A losing streak (which all good teams go through) in which confidence was low for a young team coming in with high expectations, poor SH% and SV% and an ability to play up/down to competition is what skews the record.

We have a need, we have a surplus of 1sts (yes, 2 is a surplus for a contending team), we have the cap, and its our last year to do so for sure. We have cap crunches due to deals that will likely limit our ability to add at upcoming deadlines to depth players worth 2nds-4ths.

My god all you want to do is stockpile 1st rounders and never give this team an extra boost. I'd be picketing outside MSG if you were the GM because we'd have 30 21 year olds needing ice time and you wont trade them or any 1st because "this team isnt good enough". Its infuriating. We have aj elite goalie, and elite defenseman, elite centre and elite winger. We finally have C depth. We have young guys on last years of ELC's/bridges. This is the time you add.

I can rant all day about how this team will never be "good enough" for draft junkies to ever trade a 28th overall pick. Its infuriating. Last year Igor covered a team that wasn't good early. With the additions, our underlying play improved (thats a fact) while Igors play helps us on a playoff run. This year its the opposite in which this team is playing much better (aside from recent confidence, SH%, SV% induced losing streak and playing down to bottom 7 teams). If there is an issue, its not on ice its behnd the bench. So limit the ability of our problem by adding good impact players in the last year were able to.

Don't worry, you will still have one 1st rounder this year to help you sleep through the night. Its not like I'm advocating trading both, I said we have 2 so as a contender we can afford to trade 1 because we likely won't have an ability to add anyone worth 1st rounders in future drafts.

Before Ranger boy comes back with his rhetoric again:
I definitely AM NOT saying we should trade our 1st rounder every year. What I'm saying is we have TWO 1st rounders and are a CONTENDING team with an ELITE G, ELITE D, ELITE C and ELITE W. We have a NEED for a top 6/middle 6 reinforcement. We have the cap NOW, when in the FUTURE we MAY NOT have the cap to add anythiny worth more than a 2nd-4th.
I repeat, I am NOT GLEN SATHER. I am NOT saying we need to go hapf a decade without picking in the 1st round. We would still pick in the first round if we trade only ONE or our TWO 1st rounders. And I'm NOT saying we need to trade our 1st every year.

 

[kinger8998]

Exactly what I was talking about when they were blowing early season games against sj, anh, and other bottom tier teams. It's going to get much tougher but the good news is if they beat those teams ahead of them they close gaps quicker. It's all on the players and coaches at this point. They put themselves in this position.

This team plays up/down to the opponent. Thats often an issue with young teams who thrive on confidence. Our oldest players are 31. Half of our forwards are under 26 and we have one D over 24. Its unfortunate we lost these points, but this should prime us to play up to our opponenets and yes you are right, beating them is favorable as we not only climb up but prevent them from also winning as we beat lower teams.

 

[haohmaru]

My god all you want to do is stockpile 1st rounders and never give this team an extra boost.

This is the best draft since 2003 (and we all know how that went) - if I'm the Rangers I'm not f***ing this up again and paying for it, again, for the next 15 years for the sake of adding Patrick Kane or some other fossil without a future here. If we're talking a 2024 1st, or a prospect and a 3rd, or whatever then I'll listen. 1st's in this year's draft are a complete non starter for me if I'm the Rangers GM for any negotiations this TDL.

 

[kinger8998]

This is the best draft since 2003 (and we all know how that went) - if I'm the Rangers I'm not f***ing this up again and paying for it, again, for the next 15 years for the sake of adding Patrick Kane or some other fossil without a future here. If we're talking a 2024 1st, or a prospect and a 3rd, or whatever then I'll listen. 1st's in this year's draft are a complete non starter for me if I'm the Rangers GM for any negotiations this TDL.

For every Corey Perry or Brent Burns or Ryan Kesler from 20-30 in the 2003 NHL draft there was a Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Shawn Belle, Jeff Tambellini or Anthony Stewart. I count 3 elite players and 4 duds.

Other 3 were Brian Boyle, Mark Stuart and Patrick Eaves. Solid players, sure, but if you need one of their ilk at any given deadline you don't need to worry, it won't cost you a 1st

You really have confidence in the same Rangers draft team you trash on for drafting the guys they have in the past and "not F**king it up again"?

Its such a backwards argument "ughhhh the Rangers suck at drafting" but "lets stockpile picks because its the best draft everrrrr".

We still have a 1st round pick. Everything will be okay in your dreams you won't dream of a draft board with no Rangers pick from 1-32, the Rangers will still be there once to ensure your dreams aren't a nightmare

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Ranger’s Fluff Piece:

 

[bhamill]

For every Corey Perry or Brent Burns or Ryan Kesler from 20-30 in the 2003 NHL draft there was a Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Shawn Belle, Jeff Tambellini or Anthony Stewart. I count 3 elite players and 4 duds.

Other 3 were Brian Boyle, Mark Stuart and Patrick Eaves. Solid players, sure, but if you need one of their ilk at any given deadline you don't need to worry, it won't cost you a 1st

You really have confidence in the same Rangers draft team you trash on for drafting the guys they have in the past and "not F**king it up again"?

Its such a backwards argument "ughhhh the Rangers suck at drafting" but "lets stockpile picks because its the best draft everrrrr".

We still have a 1st round pick. Everything will be okay in your dreams you won't dream of a draft board with no Rangers pick from 1-32, the Rangers will still be there once to ensure your dreams aren't a nightmare

You realize you just said it was a 30% chance of getting an elite player from 20-30, with a 60% chance of getting at least a solid NHLer and you don’t think it would be bad to give up that chance for a rental that is NOT getting us a cup? … We certainly have very different value systems.

 

[bbny]

Panarin on the left and Zibanejad in the bumper only briefly occurred before they switched and I don’t think that was even last year. The vast majority of the games have been in the current configuration. This can easily be looked up by checking the individual game shot charts however I am not going to go through that many individual games of charts. I did however look at the first 5 games last year and Zibanejad had 10 shots from the left circle

And in any case the spot for Kane on the PP would be PP2. If he’s not worth it at 5v5 and PP2 then he’s not worth trading for.

There was a brief stretch in the entire Panarin/Zibanejad tenure where both were healthy and they tried Zibanejad bumper and Panarin left wall. That stretch was the beginning of last season. I don’t know the exact dates but let’s go with October/November. It wasn’t working and they flipped it back.

You want the numbers for October/November last year vs. this year?

Panarin last year Oct/Nov: 1-8-9
Panarin this year Oct/Nov: 1-11-12

Zibanejad last year Oct/Nov: 2-4-6
Zibanejad this year Oct/Nov: 8-4-12

Panarin leads the league in primary power play assists this season.

He is the 2nd behind McDavid in primary power play assists since 2020 when Fox joined PP1.

Validated for you?

I find it crazy that people think shifting Zibanejad or Panarin to bumper and putting Laf/Kakko/Chytil on the left wall makes this power play better. It doesn’t. The power play has a rough stretch but it has been consistently great for a long long time.

Panarin was a staple on the left side since 2019 when he got here. It wasn't a brief thing. Just pull up a few highlight tapes from the 19-20/20-21 seasons. Panarin only got switched off mid-last year because Zib rejuvenated his season from that spot when Panarin got hurt for a stretch (12/15 last year). Gallant just stuck with it.

I am surprised he is tied for primary PP assists this season. I suppose he has gotten more of those passes through cross-ice to Zibanejad than it has been feeling lately. On the flip side, he also only has 1 PP goal this year (on 10/23), and his shot is better than that. He just doesn't shoot enough from that angle, and he should.

 

[effen]

Tolvanen is buttcheeks. Beaten out by Mark "giant pile of Play-Doh" Jankowski. Let that sink in.

 

[kinger8998]

You realize you just said it was a 30% chance of getting an elite player from 20-30, with a 60% chance of getting at least a solid NHLer and you don’t think it would be bad to give up that chance for a rental that is NOT getting us a cup? … We certainly have very different value systems.

Solid bottom 6 NHLers can be acquired at any point through free agency or TDL for cheap costs. Motte, Vatrano just last year.

I also said its not a straight up 30%. Its a 30% when not factoring in any variables like us being bad at drafting. Lets not forget out pick in that draft was Hugh Jessiman. We had a 30% chance of striking gold in the 1st round and we didn't so what makes you think we do this time?

How do you know it won't get us a Cup? Some very big assumptions. By your logic of straight up numbers with no outside variable factors weighted, we had a 25% chance at the Cup last year in final 4. I'd rather take a 25% chance at Cup in June than a 30% chance at drafting someone in June.

 

[SA16]

Panarin was a staple on the left side since 2019 when he got here. It wasn't a brief thing. Just pull up a few highlight tapes from the 19-20/20-21 seasons. Panarin only got switched off mid-last year because Zib rejuvenated his season from that spot when Panarin got hurt for a stretch (12/15 last year). Gallant just stuck with it.

I am surprised he is tied for primary PP assists this season. I suppose he has gotten more of those passes through cross-ice to Zibanejad than it has been feeling lately. On the flip side, he also only has 1 PP goal this year (on 10/23), and his shot is better than that. He just doesn't shoot enough from that angle, and he should.

The team was 28.6% on the PP, best in the league, using your date of 12/15/21 as the starting point and you want to change the structure of that unit? They have not been as effective this year but are generating the most shots in the league on the PP. I do not think they will be shooting 10.7% on the PP all year.

And I watched some of the 20/21 goals and it was al over the place. Several were from the left, several from the bumper, and several net front (plus one or two on zone entry rushes without any set). I am not exactly understanding why they should go back to a PP structure that was less effective than the current structure. Again, using 12/15/21 as the start point (83 games) they lead the league in CF60, xG60, 4th in SF60, 8th in goals/60 and such doing that. So why make changes?

Why do you want Panarin to shoot more from that spot? That's a spot for setting plays up. In any case, his shot rate isn't even down on the PP. Outside of 2020-21 he has had a shot rate between 24.7 and 26.8 attempts/60 on the PP each of the last 6 years. He's shooting just as much as he always does.

 

[UnSandvich]

Anyone looking at this team and thinking that we're a team that should be trading 1sts for rentals is watching a very different team than i am. And I'm one of the optimists here.

 

[bhamill]

Solid bottom 6 NHLers can be acquired at any point through free agency or TDL for cheap costs. Motte, Vatrano just last year.

I also said its not a straight up 30%. Its a 30% when not factoring in any variables like us being bad at drafting. Lets not forget out pick in that draft was Hugh Jessiman. We had a 30% chance of striking gold in the 1st round and we didn't so what makes you think we do this time?

How do you know it won't get us a Cup? Some very big assumptions. By your logic of straight up numbers with no outside variable factors weighted, we had a 25% chance at the Cup last year in final 4. I'd rather take a 25% chance at Cup in June than a 30% chance at drafting someone in June.

You used and example of 3 out of 10, it’s reasonable to say 30%. And actually our supposed drafting issues are with higher picks, we do pretty damn good with later 1st picks, Miller, Chytil, Nils, Schneider recently.
And saying we had a 25% chance at the Cup is erroneous. It’s not as much of a crapshoot. What did Vegas say our odds were to win going into the semis? I assure you NOT 1 of 4, hahaha. If you think this team is a rental away from the cup, bless your soul, I don’t want to piss on your hopes. I just do not share that optimism…

 

[QJL]

I would love Gavrikov on this team. Who do we think signs a larger next contract? Lindgren to Gavrikov?

 

[xsniper11x]

Before Ranger boy comes back with his rhetoric again:
I definitely AM NOT saying we should trade our 1st rounder every year. What I'm saying is we have TWO 1st rounders and are a CONTENDING team with an ELITE G, ELITE D, ELITE C and ELITE W. We have a NEED for a top 6/middle 6 reinforcement. We have the cap NOW, when in the FUTURE we MAY NOT have the cap to add anythiny worth more than a 2nd-4th.
I repeat, I am NOT GLEN SATHER. I am NOT saying we need to go hapf a decade without picking in the 1st round. We would still pick in the first round if we trade only ONE or our TWO 1st rounders. And I'm NOT saying we need to trade our 1st every year.

I certainly get this mentality and am fully onboard when the team shows they have earned sacrificing future for a boost into the POs. Last year’s team definitely did that. This year’s team has a lot more to prove to convince they are worthy of it. Luckily, there’s still 3 months to prove it. However, given our issues with both speed and depth, I’m very much in the “get multiple pieces” camp like we did last year vs making a big splash for one guy like Kane.

Also, if we do it and Panarin sh*** the bed again in the POs, I want him gone. Cut his mins, take him off the PP and let him sulk until he requests out.

 

[kovazub94]

The Rangers have 2024 1st IF 1st is the ask but another point of a deep draft in 2023 is that not only these 1st rounders are extremely valuable to keep / obtain but also that at TDL 2nd and 3rd rounders will become more valuable as well and might bring back value that in other years required a 1st.

 

[Avery16]

Well I guess cheap is to be determined. Blais is likely getting a large pay cut and ottawa isn't competing. Motte cheap would be 1.5 to 1.75. I am of the mind that you can't just invest in the top 6 and hope the bottom 6 works out. I think we would be a better team with Mottes speed vs Blais physicality, which honestly hasn't been that prominent. Just spit balling.

We just moved one $1.75m 4th liner and you want to add another? I know our 4C makes $3.6m but let’s not throw good money after bad.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

The Rangers have 2024 1st IF 1st is the ask but another point of a deep draft in 2023 is that not only these 1st rounders are extremely valuable to keep / obtain but also that at TDL 2nd and 3rd rounders will become more valuable as well and might bring back value that in other years required a 1st.

Teams aren't going to want wait and get a 24 1st. They will demand this years or no deal.

 

[gravey9]

Anyone looking at this team and thinking that we're a team that should be trading 1sts for rentals is watching a very different team than i am. And I'm one of the optimists here.

Trading a 1st to bolster this team going into the playoffs is the equivalent of trading for Eric Staal when we weren't going anywhere or likewise when we traded for McCabe or Yandle or that power forward with a concussion history from the Sharks.

We should NOT trade either first in 2023 unless this team looks far more legit. Far more. If you're Boston, with the way they;re playing and with their aging core, it makes sense. With us, I mean I get the whole Shesty needs a new deal in 3 years and this is our window logic, but I also think a team needs to have a strong identity and show a consistency before you start throwing away 1sts.

Now, if there's a trade to make mid-season thats about changing our core, where we're trading for an upgrade that helps now and in the future, that's a diff story. But given our cap situation, that seems unlikely.

 

[Vitto79]

Why is St. Louis trading probably one of the top rentals on the market and a decent bottom 6 guy, AND eat half the cap hit for a first a third and somebody that has zero trade value?

Who can fit that under the cap ?
Like no one . All teams know they have to likely eat salary on rentals to make the deal

 

[cwede]

..trading for Eric Staal when we weren't going anywhere or likewise when we traded for McCabe or Yandle or that power forward with a concussion history from the Sharks.

Hated each of those ...

 

[rangersfansince08]

If they start playing really well sure trade a first. But if we are hobbling into the the second wild are do not trade it. seems pretty simple.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

Anyone looking at this team and thinking that we're a team that should be trading 1sts for rentals is watching a very different team than i am. And I'm one of the optimists here.

Not only am I confident that this team is not a Patrick Kane away from a cup, I'm pretty skeptical that it is a Connor McDavid away from a cup.

 

[bleedblue94]

I really hope we are able to claim tolvanen.

Feel like that kid needs a new start and can be a contributor.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Please don't Ranger this....leave Kane where he is. He isn't gonna bring this team a cup. If you wanna do some minor deals like the Vatrano deal last year fine but done throw a package of picks and prospects away for nothing. Personally I'd want this team to provide opportunities to the kids, Kravtsov included and maybe add a LD and some depth at the deadline. If Kravtsov isnt staying make a move with him but we shouldn't be big game hunting, last year was a mirage, played against 3rd string goalies, Crosby out, everything went our way, we shouldn't have gotten out of the first round.

I really hope we are able to claim tolvanen.

Feel like that kid needs a new start and can be a contributor.

He's too young and not Vesey enough, he'll be bag skating with Kravtsov

 

[bbny]

The team was 28.6% on the PP, best in the league, using your date of 12/15/21 as the starting point and you want to change the structure of that unit? They have not been as effective this year but are generating the most shots in the league on the PP. I do not think they will be shooting 10.7% on the PP all year.

And I watched some of the 20/21 goals and it was al over the place. Several were from the left, several from the bumper, and several net front (plus one or two on zone entry rushes without any set). I am not exactly understanding why they should go back to a PP structure that was less effective than the current structure. Again, using 12/15/21 as the start point (83 games) they lead the league in CF60, xG60, 4th in SF60, 8th in goals/60 and such doing that. So why make changes?

Why do you want Panarin to shoot more from that spot? That's a spot for setting plays up. In any case, his shot rate isn't even down on the PP. Outside of 2020-21 he has had a shot rate between 24.7 and 26.8 attempts/60 on the PP each of the last 6 years. He's shooting just as much as he always does.

The premise was if the team got Kane. Not moving Panarin for the sake of moving him.

The PP is down a bit this year and I believe that's because teams have been better about limiting the Zibanejad one-timer. Zibanejad is accounting for 48% of the team's PP goals this year. Last year he accounted for 27%. They are relying too much on having to get the puck to him. In general, the better the team they face the harder it is getting to make it happen this year. So how do you propose this be fixed?

No way. Panarin was stapled to the left boards the overwhelming majority of the time with Strome on the right. Zibanejad floating from typical bumper position to down low left side of the net. Fox at the top. This structure wasn't anything new. A brief look at some tape from his last year in Columbus he was stapled on the left too. This is in addition to the fact he hates playing RW because of the angle (Gallant actually just recently made mention of this when talking about Lafreniere playing left vs right), and it's really not much different on the PP. Panarin on the right on the PP was not a regular occurrence for him at all, so it's not like moving him from that spot is taking away his bread (lol) and butter.