Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2019/2020) - DeAngelo and Lemieux Left

[Leetch3]

im sorry but there are teams that got weaker.

not better
pitts - lost kessel and getting older
cbus - duh
the piles - not buying it
the canes - gimicky

better
devs- stronger
flyers- improved

same
wash- always tough

well us being in the playoff hunt cause everyone else stinks is a very different argument than we are going to be a much better team lol

 

[LORDE]

people said the same thing last summer...there was no chance that we'd ever be bad enough to get a top pick

I don't remember this.

I recall most people here figured we'd be around 4-7 I think. At least the fairly grounded, honest folks did. Some said 10-15 also I suppose.

 

[Leetch3]

I don't remember this.

I recall most people here figured we'd be around 4-7 I think. At least the fairly grounded, honest folks did. Some said 10-15 also I suppose.

really? the entire summer was spent people telling us that tanking is pointless cause we'd never be a bottom 5 team anyway...'no team with henrik lundqvist will ever be that bad' was the theme. there were definitely people that thought we'd be really bad but you had the same split of people saying we'd be a playoff team vs people that thought we'd be awful

 

[egelband]

The team was "bad" last season but I really enjoyed it. They played hard, respectable, and a structure evolved. Young players got ice time and developed. Some broke out. I'm happy if this upcoming season is similar. Not whinging at all as long as young players play and develop.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

There was a lot of turnover this offseason.

Why don't we wait to see what the team actually looks like before writing them off as garbage?

Before declaring what this team is or isn't I'd like to see:

-How Panarin looks and meshes with Zibanejad

-How Trouba looks as a 1D

-How Kakko looks in the NHL

-How Kravtsov looks in the NHL

-How Chytil, Andersson and Howden look with another year of growth under their belt - if they can take bigger steps

-How Fox looks in the NHL

-How Hank looks if he can bounce back

-How Rykov/Hajek/whoever wins 6D role looks and how the D as a whole functions in it's slightly revamped state

There's a lot of things that could at swing this team's potential for this season wildly.

Some of you are such downers, we haven't even seen Panarin in a Rangers jersey yet let alone Kakko or Kravtsov or Trouba or Fox etc.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Rangers aren't pushing for a playoff spot without a Henrik pushing for a Vezina

I know there's some reason to be excited for the future, but until some of those projections come to fruition our defense is still a god damn tire fire

In Henrik's early days this would have been a playoff team. We've seen him drag worse teams than this to an 8th seed before. But now, you're completely correct on that.

 

[LORDE]

really? the entire summer was spent people telling us that tanking is pointless cause we'd never be a bottom 5 team anyway...'no team with henrik lundqvist will ever be that bad' was the theme. there were definitely people that thought we'd be really bad but you had the same split of people saying we'd be a playoff team vs people that thought we'd be awful

Oh I remember the no tank crowd, but also those (again grounded ones) who banged the hank drum knew we would sell off Hayes and Zucc AT LEAST, maybe Kreider as well, new coach etc.

Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't remember this.

I recall most people here figured we'd be around 4-7 I think. At least the fairly grounded, honest folks did. Some said 10-15 also I suppose.

There was a ton of “this team is gonna surprise” last off-season.

 

[nyr2k2]

really? the entire summer was spent people telling us that tanking is pointless cause we'd never be a bottom 5 team anyway...'no team with henrik lundqvist will ever be that bad' was the theme. there were definitely people that thought we'd be really bad but you had the same split of people saying we'd be a playoff team vs people that thought we'd be awful

Well, I was one of the people who said we wouldn't be a bottom five team. I also said if things broke right, we could be competing for the final spot (I saw us hovering around the periphery, not actually getting the spot). IIRC we were 8-9 points out of a WC spot come the TDL, but we were also 10th or 11th from the bottom. So, I think people on either side of that argument had merit to what they were positing.

In the end, we were still extremely fortunate to land the #2. We had what, a less than 10% chance of getting a top-three pick based on where we finished? Had we finished sixth and picked sixth, and grabbed Cozens, we'd all be happy but would be in a completely different place right now. The people that said we'd never finish bottom-five, or bottom-three, and get one of those truly elite players, would probably still be making that argument.

 

[nyr2k2]

There was a ton of “this team is gonna surprise” last off-season.

There was a lot of that, and there was a lot of "This team is bottom-three, for sure. Look at the other teams." Followed by arbitrarily proclaiming other shit teams to be much better than us.

 

[nyr2k2]

I read the numbers. I think those projections are majorly flawed for a variety of reasons. Starting with they project each team with the same TOI split for each line and pairing which is a very poor assumption. Then all the rookie projections always have to be taken with a grain of salt. Then you just have certain things you look at that don't really add up - such as like the TB L4 in 15% TOI having almost the same projection as the Barzal line at 35%? McDavid/Draisaitl being worse than a lot of lines? Not to mention they are really odd on guys with minimal previous playing time and make Texier look like a superstar (as they mention). Not to mention they have TB projected to be near the best team of all time which does not seem like it can be close to a median projection.

I haven't really looked at the methodology, but I think the end results they arrive at seem pretty reasonable. I would argue for a handful more/less points here and there, but in general, however they arrived at their rankings, it seems to produce a fairly accurate ordering.

 

[ETTER DE]

I honestly wouldn't mind Fiala from Minny in a Kreider trade. No arb. righs. Trade Kreider for him, sign him for 4 years at 3.5m or something.

The reason why Minnesota traded Granlund for Fiala was maybe that they did not want to pay him 8 mill. And that gave them the opportunity to sign Zuccarello. And get 2 players for a little more (if they bridge Fiala). Trading him for Kreider does not make any sense if that is true. But on the other hand, they have fired the GM since then...

 

[SA16]

I haven't really looked at the methodology, but I think the end results they arrive at seem pretty reasonable. I would argue for a handful more/less points here and there, but in general, however they arrived at their rankings, it seems to produce a fairly accurate ordering.

Projections without providing the error bars are relatively useless. Well not useless - but highly inefficient in something that we know will have very high variance.

Not adjusting the playing time is also just being lazy. You can easily just look at how teams (with the same coaching staff) deployed their lines last year and assume the same ratio.

This is my problem with a lot of NHL analysis (compared to baseball). Lots of people create models and post data without even checking to see if it makes sense - and then backtrack on it later when they realize it was wrong. Take less time publishing your work and more time refining it before publishing it. It shouldn't be a race to see who is first.

 

[TheTakedown]

And over the last 2 seasons at minimum, the defensive group has been the worst its ever been. Could be argued it was just as bad 3 and 4 years ago.

Yes Hank is getting older. Yes he couldnt keep up the same elite numbers he had been putting up.

But to put it all on him is lazy and negligent analysis

2015-16 and 2016-17 had AVs atrocity of a system grinding the team into the ground. If Hank ISN'T on those teams, they are 1000% basement dwellers and probably get a top 5 pick in 2017 instead of the 21 to pick Chytil
Instead, in 2017-18, we actually did suck ass... AVs system had run its course and the key players here were not contributing. Shatts did not work out this year at all, Staal was trash and did not resurge like people hoped. DeAngelo was an unknown quantity, and Skjei had a major regression. Lets talk about how one dimensional these teams were. Scoring on the rush was all they did, there was no game breaking ability anywhere, Nash never returned to form in any of these 3 years. That's a large contributing factor here.
2018-19 had the worst defensive group in all of these years with Shatts lack of ability to come back from that injury with a bang. Skjei did not regress to the mean, and instead ended up being just average. DeAngelo started showing his flashes, but it wasn't enough to carry the defense. Pionk was trash after game 20. This is by far the WORST defensive group this team has seen in the past 8-10 years.

With bonafide 2nd+ pairing defensemen in DeAngelo and Trouba, a bonafide NHL-ready-right-now prospects in Fox, and a hopefulness of a Skjei resurgence (maybe this time it happens), this defense is suddenly miles ahead of what its been the past few years.

 

[nyr2k2]

Projections without providing the error bars are relatively useless. Well not useless - but highly inefficient in something that we know will have very high variance.

Not adjusting the playing time is also just being lazy. You can easily just look at how teams (with the same coaching staff) deployed their lines last year and assume the same ratio.

Yeah, not looking to argue with you on any of these points. Smarter people than I can analyze the underlying numbers and say if they're bullshit or not. I absolutely believe your criticisms are valid.

All I was saying is, whether the underlying numbers are junk, I think it still produced something that's pretty reasonable (talking strictly about the team point totals). Like looking at our total of 75 and saying, "It could be considerably more if the young players produce," which they basically did, I agree. Even if the numbers behind it are shit.

Of course, what it sounds like I'm saying is basically that numbers don't matter as long as you guess right in the end. Which I obviously don't believe--I just think whatever they've done here is reasonable on the surface.

 

[True Blue]

Lindgren does not have anywhere near the upside of Hajek Rykov or even Reunanen imo.

He does not need to have the same upside. And players with higher upsides do not always even make it in the league. That is why they are called busts. Lindgren has a better chance of being an everyday NHL defenseman than Reunanen, IMO. And every bit as good of a chance as Rykov. Just because the other players are more skilled, that does not give them a better chance.

Lindgren brings something completely different than those players. And that is something that is also valuable. He did not look any more out of place last year than Hajek did. He is the type of player that can bring stability to a defense, playing a role in the 4-6 range.

 

[TheTakedown]

this nyr team right now- the way its configured, will have more than 75 points.

thats a joke.

this team will push for a playoff spot.

my lord.

we kept CK, added panarin, kakko and kravtsov plus trouba and fox.

if george outplays hank, lets him be the #1.

stupid

That athletic ranking is totally wrong...

Somehow Columbus is going to mock up 94 points
The devils are somehow putting up TEN more points than us despite only adding Subban as a substantial add
The jets who don't even have a full roster and absolutely minimal cap space are somehow putting up 92 points
Sharks lost Pavelski, but they're only putting up 89 because you know Karlsson definitely won't be healthy again in his lifetime ever
Also how in the f*** are the wild putting up 83 points? Mark my words they will be as bad as we were this past season. They are NOT competing for anything with those retirement contracts.

 

[Thirty One]

That athletic ranking is totally wrong...

Somehow Columbus is going to mock up 94 points
The devils are somehow putting up TEN more points than us despite only adding Subban as a substantial add
The jets who don't even have a full roster and absolutely minimal cap space are somehow putting up 92 points
Sharks lost Pavelski, but they're only putting up 89 because you know Karlsson definitely won't be healthy again in his lifetime ever
Also how in the **** are the wild putting up 83 points? Mark my words they will be as bad as we were this past season. They are NOT competing for anything with those retirement contracts.

The Devils are also potentially adding half a season of Taylor Hall.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If the O/U on the rangers is 75, the over is easy money.

Any thought of the playoffs last year was pie in the sky wishcasting. It’s actually possible next year but they need 3 things to improve -

Goaltending. This doesn’t have to be vezina level, but it needs to be better

Penalty Kill. Which sort of ties into the above and what I’ll list below.

No Marc Staal. He hurts this team massively when he plays.

There are enough pieces here to run 2 very good PP units. I expect them to have a top 10 pp in the league and potentially the type of PP that can drag them into the playoffs....


As long as they improve in the other areas.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Rangers aren't pushing for a playoff spot without a Henrik pushing for a Vezina

I know there's some reason to be excited for the future, but until some of those projections come to fruition our defense is still a god damn tire fire

respectfully disagree

last year it was

this year we will see a dramatic improvement.

 

[Levitate]

respectfully disagree

last year it was

this year we will see a dramatic improvement.

I dunno about dramatic but it should be better. Skjei-Trouba isn't an ideal first pair but still should be able to put them out 20+ minutes a night without it being ugly
the rest will be DeAngelo having to drag Staal's corpse around and whether Hajek/Smith/Rykov-Fox can outperform the soft minuts they'll get

 

[BBKers]

Trouba > Shattenkirk
ADA should improve
Skjei should too, but not sure he will
Fox >? Pionk
Rykov/Hajek/Lindgren > Smith
Staal will likely regress even more
Maybe Chase Priskie signs with us strengthening the RD more? Will see in 8 days or so where he winds up. LA maybe?
We still likely need a vet UFA #7 D

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I don't remember this.

I recall most people here figured we'd be around 4-7 I think. At least the fairly grounded, honest folks did. Some said 10-15 also I suppose.

well we weren't, we finished 6th worst. But the real argument was that we'd never be lucky enough to win the lottery. Now, anything seems possible.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

That athletic ranking is totally wrong...

Somehow Columbus is going to mock up 94 points
The devils are somehow putting up TEN more points than us despite only adding Subban as a substantial add
The jets who don't even have a full roster and absolutely minimal cap space are somehow putting up 92 points
Sharks lost Pavelski, but they're only putting up 89 because you know Karlsson definitely won't be healthy again in his lifetime ever
Also how in the **** are the wild putting up 83 points? Mark my words they will be as bad as we were this past season. They are NOT competing for anything with those retirement contracts.

The Wild aren't as bad as everyone says. That top 4 is among the best in the league. Their offense isn't great but it should be middle of the road. They will hover around a wild card spot if they stay healthy.

 

[Levitate]

Trouba > Shattenkirk
ADA should improve
Skjei should too, but not sure he will
Fox >? Pionk
Rykov/Hajek/Lindgren > Smith
Staal will likely regress even more
We still likely need a vet UFA #7 D

Since Smith wasn't bought out he could end up being the 7th D, depending on the cap situation.

e: also a bit of versatility since he can play both sides of the ice