Speculation: Roster Building Thread DCLXXVII: Derek Stepan Trade-A-Palooza

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Well, I guess I didn't really think about it as deeply as I should've, and maybe I don't know as much as I think I do.

I thought LVGK could be really, really smart here, and with some savvy maneuvering, could come out of the gate hot and even compete for a playoff spot.

But, GMGM has found a much better loophole. In deals involving LVGK not selecting a certain player, the market-value of a first-round draft pick has absolutely plummeted.

Dreger is saying now that the Isles are not making a move pre-expansion, at least with a team that's not LVGK. LeBrun is reporting that LVGK has at least three-pocketed trades where they'll be getting a first-round draft pick to either select a certain player, or not selecting a certain player, pending your view-points of glasses and whether or not they are half full or half empty.

Teams are trading LVGK a first-round pick to not select the skater they value 11th most on their team.

That. Is. Absurd.

As someone who truly believes that first-round picks, especially 20th or later, are overvalued to a certain degree because they are "first-rounders", this is the polar opposite.

For instance, to put this in NYR terms, I'd be thrilled if NYR sent a 1st round pick to Vegas to select Girardi (back in the day) or Staal (now). But, imagine if NYR sends LVGK a first-round pick to not select Fast or Lindberg or Raanta or Grabner, and rather to take Holden.

That'd be such a garbage trade.

And teams are doing that.

Bravo, George McPhee.

Vegas ending up with 3 extra first round picks would be insane. And all they have to do is not take a depth player, only to take another depth player.

I love Fast and Lindberg but if we have to give up a 1st rounder to retain them, we are just wasting a 1st round pick. It is what it is. Expansion drafts in the past were never about the team entering the league, and that showed. All they got were NHL/AHL tweeners. This year, Vegas has a chance to pick some good depth players and they get 1st rounders on top of it for selecting another depth player.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Yes, I am just looking at what we have. They will maybe sign a veteran D for the 3rd pairing to play with Bereglazov.

I could definitely live with Holden and the two rookies rotating on the 3rd pair. Don't know that AV would ever scratch Holden in favor of a rookie but on paper I like it.

 

[GAGLine]

You don't need a "top 4" player to replace Girardi and what he's become.. nor Staal had we bought him out instead.. You can easily find a comparable defenseman to either one of them for the savings you're getting.

It depends on the quality of the player you bring in to replace him. A journeyman 3rd pair dman like Kampfer isn't going to make us a better team.

This is why teams need strong farm systems, so you can replace veterans with quality young players at cheap prices.

 

[SA16]

It does somewhat depend on the team though. Obviously trading a first to not take Fast/Lindberg is absurd but in the case of say...Nashville with James Neal it may not be. Will have to see when it all comes out

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

If ARZ isn't putting the #7 in the package for Stepan, would anyone else rather have their first next year? I'd personally rather have two 1st's in a way better draft than this one

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I could definitely live with Holden and the two rookies rotating on the 3rd pair. Don't know that AV would ever scratch Holden in favor of a rookie but on paper I like it.

Holden away from Staal is a serviceable 3rd pair D-man in the league. Holden gets a lot of flack for the games he played with Staal, but when he was away from Staal he was absolutely worth his cap hit and the minutes he played. He's not some elite playmaking D-man but we can't have a D-group full of Karlssons, Subbans and Hedmans.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Well, I guess I didn't really think about it as deeply as I should've, and maybe I don't know as much as I think I do.

I thought LVGK could be really, really smart here, and with some savvy maneuvering, could come out of the gate hot and even compete for a playoff spot.

But, GMGM has found a much better loophole. In deals involving LVGK not selecting a certain player, the market-value of a first-round draft pick has absolutely plummeted.

Dreger is saying now that the Isles are not making a move pre-expansion, at least with a team that's not LVGK. LeBrun is reporting that LVGK has at least three-pocketed trades where they'll be getting a first-round draft pick to either select a certain player, or not selecting a certain player, pending your view-points of glasses and whether or not they are half full or half empty.

Teams are trading LVGK a first-round pick to not select the skater they value 11th most on their team.

That. Is. Absurd.

As someone who truly believes that first-round picks, especially 20th or later, are overvalued to a certain degree because they are "first-rounders", this is the polar opposite.

For instance, to put this in NYR terms, I'd be thrilled if NYR sent a 1st round pick to Vegas to select Girardi (back in the day) or Staal (now). But, imagine if NYR sends LVGK a first-round pick to not select Fast or Lindberg or Raanta or Grabner, and rather to take Holden.

That'd be such a garbage trade.

And teams are doing that.

Bravo, George McPhee.

Classic loss aversion. Not losing things seems better to people than gaining something better.

 

[silverfish]

Holden away from Staal is a serviceable 3rd pair D-man in the league. Holden gets a lot of flack for the games he played with Staal, but when he was away from Staal he was absolutely worth his cap hit and the minutes he played. He's not some elite playmaking D-man but we can't have a D-group full of Karlssons, Subbans and Hedmans.

This is slightly disingenuous.

They were both better away from each other (read: not good, better), and horrible together.

 

[McD37]

Yes. I don't want to get too ahead of myself, but I think that defense, along with Nashville would be the best in the league.

All in one offseason.

Absolutely, and third pair of for example Holden - Bereglazov is much better than Irwin-Weber. That would be great D. With Henrik and forward core... That is really good team.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

This is slightly disingenuous.

They were both better away from each other (read: not good, better), and horrible together.

Some defensemen just shouldn't be paired together. But I trust Holden with Bereglazov a lot more than Staal with Bereglazov

 

[Anthony5967]

If I was GM this is how it would go

1) Chayka sends a deal centered around Cych/Dvo/Keller to NYR for Stepan
2) This can be a downright blockbuster where OEL comes the NYR way
3) He sends me a 1st but next year when the draft will be muuuuch better

 

[silverfish]

Some defensemen just shouldn't be paired together. But I trust Holden with Bereglazov a lot more than Staal with Bereglazov

Remember early in the season when everyone thought they were playing well together, but the fancystats said they'd come crashing down to earth and no one believed it?

I 'member.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=126229893#post126229893

 

[GregSirico]

Is it 3:00 yet?

 

[Anthony5967]

I will be out at 2 so I fully expect the moves to start flowin then

 

[McD37]

Absolutely, and third pair of for example Holden - Bereglazov is much better than Irwin-Weber. That would be great D. With Henrik and forward core... That is really good team.

Forgot Staal exists. Still would be great Top4.

 

[Raspewtin]

You don't need a "top 4" player to replace Girardi and what he's become.. nor Staal had we bought him out instead.. You can easily find a comparable defenseman to either one of them for the savings you're getting.

Players that are better than Girardi make pennies.

It's not hard to find someone better than Girardi.

 

[Griffinbw]

Forgot Staal exists. Still would be great Top4.

If we sign Shattenkirk it's even better
McD-Shatty
Skjei-Smith
Staal-Bereglazov

That may come close to rivaling Nashville's blue line

 

[silverfish]

Players that are better than Girardi make pennies.

It's not hard to find someone better than Girardi.

Problem is, conventional thinking exists where people don't realize if the only move we made last year was taking Girardi out of the lineup and putting Clendening in his spot, the team would've been so much better off.

People will have a hard time believing it, but I strongly believe that it's true.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If I was GM this is how it would go

1) Chayka sends a deal centered around Cych/Dvo/Keller to NYR for Stepan
2) This can be a downright blockbuster where OEL comes the NYR way
3) He sends me a 1st but next year when the draft will be muuuuch better

Yeah, but you gotta get Chayka to agree with that. Take out Dvorak, don't want him.

 

[silverfish]

Adam Herman with some heavy speculation (speculation not rumors) on Twitter right now, but it sort of fits the Rangers MO.

Trade Stepan for futures.
Sign Thornton
Hope that Zib/Hayes/Thornton is good enough to compete with. I don't think it would be, pending what they do with the defense.

 

[SnowFort]

Yeah, but you gotta get Chayka to agree with that. Take out Dvorak, don't want him.

Why not?

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Adam Herman with some heavy speculation (speculation not rumors) on Twitter right now, but it sort of fits the Rangers MO.

Trade Stepan for futures.
Sign Thornton
Hope that Zib/Hayes/Thornton is good enough to compete with. I don't think it would be, pending what they do with the defense.

would be a Ranger thing to do... I mean at worst Thornton is probably Stepan point wise wish better face offs, but that doesn't really fit the "get young" mantra.

 

[Kovalev27]

If we sign Shattenkirk it's even better
McD-Shatty
Skjei-Smith
Staal-Bereglazov

That may come close to rivaling Nashville's blue line

That would be my 6 with kampfer the 7th and probably playing games if bereglazov shows up in the same shape Buchnevich did. Pionk is there as well and I like him.

Lot has to happen.

You probably have to trade Stepan and he's got no one to blame but himself. Disgraceful all season and got worse in the playoffs in a key year for this core group.

You need Klein to retire which is very likely.

I think you have to trade Nash too but I'm not sure that's ideal. Think they like him. Think they want to bring him back on a hometown deal after this one expires.

I'd like to think we can make a deal for Holden if/when we secure smith and shattenkirk

 

[GregSirico]

Adam Herman with some heavy speculation (speculation not rumors) on Twitter right now, but it sort of fits the Rangers MO.

Trade Stepan for futures.
Sign Thornton
Hope that Zib/Hayes/Thornton is good enough to compete with. I don't think it would be, pending what they do with the defense.

Do you think Stepan 2017 and Thornton 2017 would be equal production?

 

[bernmeister]

Wasting another year of Lundqvist? They've been doing nothing but go for it since he got here.

The organization needs a change, and it needs a future. They can't keep icing average teams and hoping Lundqvist will bail them out.

common sense

At some point this organization should think about their long term health and well being, not just about a player or two. Taking a season to retool is most likely necessary

the faster the medicine the shorter the recovery

If Stepan goes for a futures type deal, I think we should definitely be looking to rebuild. No point in signing FA or keeping Zucc/McDonagh/Nash who have 1 and 2 years left on their deals.

Full assed not half assed

would Edmonton give us more for mcdonagh? he legit might make them a SC contender.

Best deal all factors is McD + Zuc + for SReinhart + EKane ++

So just so we're all clear...
I doubt Arizona ends up getting stepan. Clear posturing by JG.
As we've all come to realizec, a deal with Arizona would likely mean futures. This knowledge may convince more teams (who can only provide futures) to get in on the bidding and raise Steps trade value.

Food for thought...

AZ would be odds on favorite at this pt.
Can get big profit if they agree to compromise on Chychrun --- and if we are not greedy.