Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXVIII

[Gardner McKay]

It's basically this:



He's literally the highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL under the age of 25

Absolutely agree. Mystery box scenario.

What I don't understand are people who are willing to trade ADA because his contract is going to be expensive and that they don't feel he has produced at this rate long enough to receive that kind of contract... but then use the logic that we have Fox who can replace him. Fox. Who is a rookie. Who has even less NHL experience than ADA does.

Do we not see the problem with this logic?

 

[Thirty One]

I think we should be speculating more on what kind of contract Kreider will accept rather than his possible trade return.

Read Carp today and am reminded that for most of the season he wrote that a Kreider trade was fait accompli. His tune has changed 180 degrees.

Carp had a great quote in the notes of that piece:
" So another rematch of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final. Not many Rangers left (Lundqvist, Staal, Kreider and Fast, who was a rookie). Unfortunately for Los Angeles, there are too many Kings left."

He didn't apply the same reasoning to the part of the article where he was fear-mongering about a time without Kreider. Most of the players you hold on to at this age you regret. I'd love to keep Kreider around forever, but look at next year's cap and where the team is in the standings.

 

[Ola]

Don Maloney spent most of last week in the NY area. He scouted at least two of the four home games. Los Angeles was in town too. The Flames are looking for a right handed shooting forward. Toffoli has been linked to them. Maloney was probably taking taking a look at LA too. Strome would work for the Flames. They could put him on the wing.

What are the Flames giving the Rangers? Zero interest in Bennett and Jankowski. Bennett should have been moved by Calgary one or two years ago. Jankowski scored 31 goals combined in the previous two seasons. He has just 2 this season.

Dillon Dube? Would that work?

The Rangers might be better off giving Strome a one year contract avoiding salary arbitration and they can possibly trade him next February.

Do you really want to read Brook's articles about we just cannot have Gorton's sell-off Part IV?

Seriously though, Strome is already performing and he already have arbitration rights. If Gorton can negotiate a two year deal I am fine with that.

 

[Edge]

If he signs a 5 year deal, won't his next contract be before he turns 30?

I believe he’d be 29 going on 30 at the start of the season. So he would slide in under that bar. However, I am curious if his camp would prefer to get him there at 27 or 28.

 

[MetalJaws]

And yet we have people who, if they had a choice would spend dollars on an extension for Kreider and trade ADA.

For YEARS, this board has clamored and begged for the Rangers to find a legit offensive threat on defense. Now we have him and... we want to trade him?

ADA likely has the highest trade value currently on the Rangers and could potentially return a solid 1st line FWD or LD guy. Rangers Offense is lacking, some think LD is a weak spot as well. RD looks just fine. Rangers will have Trouba for a long while and Fox who's projecting to be a solid player moving forward seems to be offensive minded as well. A lot of cap due for the RD side.

ADA, Fox and Trouba are all projecting to have more points than any other D-men in the past 5 years. That's great and all. Some people would rather have someone for Panarin or Zib to play with who can help our Offensive side. Especially if the Rangers move Kreider. Then Kakko, Chytil and Kravtsov next year will be feeling a little more pressure.

However if ADA + is moved for a top line talent that can remove Strome or Fast off of Panarin's line or get a Top Pairing LD than the Rangers could have a scary looking top 6 or top pair.

I get both arguments to keep him or move him.

Ultimately GMJG knows the market far better than us and knows what's available.

Some tough decisions to make.

 

[Ghost of jas]

If Hank gets traded, I could see a potential deal with him and Kreider going to Colorado...

To COL: Chris Kreider (50% ret.), Henrik Lundqvist (50% ret.)
To NYR: 2020 1st, Tyson Jost, Shane Bowers, cond. 2021 3rd (becomes 2nd if Kreider re-signs or they win Cup in either year, becomes 1st if both happen), Philipp Grubauer.

I used the model of Ryan Millers trade from Buffalo to St. Louis for this. I think in everyone's opinion it's fair to say Kreider > Ott, while Lundqvist likely has similar value to Colorado based on the trade off of an extra year of term compared to the advanced age.

Miller + Ott returned Stewart, Carrier, Halak, 2015 1st and 2016 cond. 3rd

Maybe asking for Bowers is a little bit extreme, but figure that COL would value Kaut higher and I know Newhook and Byram are not on table.

Maybe we get Compher instead of Bowers but that subtracts 2 everyday roster forwards from COL which is unlikely for a contending team. Maybe Kamenev + another pick instead?

If Lundqvist gets moved, it also could mean Kreider is staying.

 

[NYR Viper]

I believe he’d be 29 going on 30 at the start of the season. So he would slide in under that bar. However, I am curious if his camp would prefer to get him there at 27 or 28.

In fairness I would have to believe the Rangers would prefer to take him to 30-31. So if they split the difference we are probably looking at 5 years

 

[kinger8998]

Carp had a great quote in the notes of that piece:
" So another rematch of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final. Not many Rangers left (Lundqvist, Staal, Kreider and Fast, who was a rookie). Unfortunately for Los Angeles, there are too many Kings left."

He didn't apply the same reasoning to the part of the article where he was fear-mongering about a time without Kreider. Most of the players you hold on to at this age you regret. I'd love to keep Kreider around forever, but look at next year's cap and where the team is in the standings.

Do you think we are winning Cup in years maybe 2, 3-5 of his next contract, or do you think we are winning it in year 6 or maybe 7? If years 6 and 7 are a problem, then so be it for me. Kreiders unique skillset and leadership will be invaluable in any Cup run we have between 2-5. I think you have to make that trade off eventually if you want to win. Not every contract can be perfect for us, see Steen in STL, Backes in BOS, Orpik in WSH. All of these teams won (or came close, sorry BOS) with a problem contract.

Even if Kreiders deal becomes somewhat of a problem in years 6 and 7, it's about the overall cap outlook, not just 1 contract. Contending in years 6 and 7 is still possible even with one back contract. Years 2-5 with Kreider would be smooth sailing and could even be the difference between 2 cups in that frame or 0

 

[kinger8998]

If Lundqvist gets moved, it also could mean Kreider is staying.

This is also true. Definitely a possibility. Was just spitballing there.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

What needs to happen and it pains me to say some of these:

• Lundqvist traded at 50% retention or bought out.
• Staal bought out.
• ADA resigned 5x$6.5MM.
• Fast resigned 3x$2.75MM.
• Kreider resigned 5x$6.75MM.
• Skjei and Buch packaged for an upgraded LD or RW.

 

[True Blue]

Adam Fox?

Trending. Doesn’t mean he’ll get there. And I’m not for trading DeAngelo just yet, though I think he’s destined to be eventually.

I certainly hope that Fox becomes that, but he is not as of yet. And simply looking at how many people have done it, I am not counting on it. Which is not to say that Fox cannot be an excellent player in his own right. Just not sure that he will be as much of an offensive difference maker as DeAngelo.

You know my view. I think that Trouba, DeAngelo & Fox will occupy the right side for a long time. Lindgren takes one of the lower two spots on the other side and prospects like Lundqvist are moved as part of a package to get that partner for Trouba.

 

[Tawnos]

There are a lot of people who assume that a good offensive D-man is automatically a bad defensive D-man

I don’t assume that, but when I see a guy consistently making poor positioning choices in the defensive zone, including switching reads, I’m going to say his defensive ability isn’t very good. Even if he has the puck skills to recover enough of the time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good player when you take everything into account. But he’s a bad defensive D.

 

[True Blue]

I said we have more depth at the position meaning we can get someone to step in. They may not score as much as him but if they play solid defense it is a plus. So my turn. If you trade CK and his 25-30 goals who is going to replace him?

The situations are not at all the same. You are talking about a 23 year old defenseman as opposed to a 28 year old LW. One of those is much, much harder to find.

 

[True Blue]

I believe he’d be 29 going on 30 at the start of the season. So he would slide in under that bar. However, I am curious if his camp would prefer to get him there at 27 or 28.

Probably yes, they would. But that is when you start getting into money that is sitting in the bank for you as opposed to money that could possibly be sitting in the bank for you one day.

 

[kinger8998]

Don't know how many of you pay for the Athletic, but a family member does and I get it for free so:

Rangers were ranked as the 4th best prospect pool. Headlining their list was Nils. Writer said he didn't know if he'd ever be a true #1D, but seemed to imply he'll be a capable 1st pairing defender. Do youguys think he has that elite potential, or would you be more in the camp that he'll be a great 2nd pairing 2PP guy?

Also, he was lower on Kravtsov, saying he could become a top-6 player but won't be the 1st liner he was drafted to be at 9 by NYR. What do youguys think? Has his season this year soured youguys on him too?

 

[True Blue]

I think ADA is gone as well.

Based on what?

 

[Thirty One]

Do you think we are winning Cup in years maybe 2, 3-5 of his next contract, or do you think we are winning it in year 6 or maybe 7? If years 6 and 7 are a problem, then so be it for me. Kreiders unique skillset and leadership will be invaluable in any Cup run we have between 2-5. I think you have to make that trade off eventually if you want to win. Not every contract can be perfect for us, see Steen in STL, Backes in BOS, Orpik in WSH. All of these teams won (or came close, sorry BOS) with a problem contract.

Even if Kreiders deal becomes somewhat of a problem in years 6 and 7, it's about the overall cap outlook, not just 1 contract. Contending in years 6 and 7 is still possible even with one back contract. Years 2-5 with Kreider would be smooth sailing and could even be the difference between 2 cups in that frame or 0

I'm not ready to concede that years 1-5 of a Kreider contract would be smooth sailing. If I could, I would be all for signing him. Would you have said the same thing signing Wayne Simmonds at 28?

 

[kinger8998]

I'm not ready to concede that years 1-5 of a Kreider contract would be smooth sailing. If I could, I would be all for signing him. Would you have said the same thing signing Wayne Simmonds at 28?

Wayne Simmonds never had the motor that Kreider has now. If Kreider breaks down at the same rate Simmonds has, he'll still be much quicker than Simmonds is now.

Simmonds also played his first NHL season in 08-09 after being drafted in 07. Kreiders first full NHL season was in 2013-2014 after being drafted in 09. Yes he did play hockey during those years, but not NHL quality or quantity.

At 28, Kreider has a more unique skillset, more speed, and less mileage than Simmonds did.

Just because they are both power forwards does not mean they will both age the same way. Criteria is important when comparing

 

[Fitzy]

What needs to happen and it pains me to say some of these:

• Lundqvist traded at 50% retention or bought out.
• Staal bought out.
• ADA resigned 5x$6.5MM.
• Fast resigned 3x$2.75MM.
• Kreider resigned 5x$6.75MM.
• Skjei and Buch packaged for an upgraded LD or RW.

Kreider isn't going to leave 15 million dollars on the table.

 

[Thirty One]

Wayne Simmonds never had the motor that Kreider has now. If Kreider breaks down at the same rate Simmonds has, he'll still be much quicker than Simmonds is now.

Simmonds also played his first NHL season in 08-09 after being drafted in 07. Kreiders first full NHL season was in 2013-2014 after being drafted in 09. Yes he did play hockey during those years, but not NHL quality or quantity.

At 28, Kreider has a more unique skillset, more speed, and less mileage than Simmonds did.

Just because they are both power forwards does not mean they will both age the same way. Criteria is important when comparing

Yeah, Kreider is faster and his game is built on speed to a degree that Simmonds wasn't, so any decrease in speed will affect his game more than it did Simmonds.

And I don't know if he will or he won't, but it's not something I'm eager to bet on.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Kreider isn't going to leave 15 million dollars on the table.

That's if the market is willing to offer 7 years. It's all been speculation to this point. Unless he and his agent have knowledge that hes guaranteed to be offered 7 years.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

That's if the market is willing to offer 7 years. It's all been speculation to this point. Unless he and his agent have knowledge that hes guaranteed to be offered 7 years.

There will be a number of teams trying to acquire him if he hits free agency. 7X7 with a NMC is the starting point, imo.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

Based on what?

I've thought this since his ill-timed holdout.

 

[Ola]

That's if the market is willing to offer 7 years. It's all been speculation to this point. Unless he and his agent have knowledge that hes guaranteed to be offered 7 years.

At the same time, wouldn’t it be surprising if Kreider didn’t get significantly more on a longer deal than Zucc got? Zucc got 6m per for 5 years. Is Kreider really only getting 6x6?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kreider got 8.5m per for 7 years. Rule of thumb, take the worst case scenario and add a lot to it. People said that Hayes wasn’t worth 5m per for a 5 year deal, get got 7x7. Zucc wasn’t worth 4m per for 3 years, he got 6m and 5 years, and so forth.

Not saying that the players were worth those contracts, but NHL GMs are generally willing to overpay.

 

[Kovalev27]

For some reason I’ve found myself arguing with a guy who is saying we should trade tony because secondary assists don’t count too “volatile” is the word he used. And Fox won’t have that problem.

meanwhile if you erased Tony’s secondary assists he’d still be on pace for 40 45 pts and 20 goals.

oh also his goals don’t count either because his shooting percentage is too high lol.

so his goals and secondary assists don’t count

amazing the somersaults guys are doing to disregard his point totals as if he hadn’t done this before while dominating juniors or putting up .5 ppg last year