Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXVI

[haveandare]

We keep bringing up Jessiman and McIlrath forever as huge organization defining mistakes.

If you look at it objectively — Gorton’s mismanagement of TDAs contract — alone — will probably cost us more than those two failed draft picks. Under contract TDA, say 5 years at 3,5m per, would easily have fetched us a really good young forward we could build around. Now we will get less than what Trouba fetched Winnipeg.

And it’s just one of a looooooong line of mistakes of the same magnitude Gorton has made. How much would Kreider fetch today with 3-4 more years at a good rate? Imagine if we locked up JT Miller at say 4m per. What would he have returned? Or Hayes at 4-5m per?

Before these guys got arbitration rights they had zero leverage. As we see all over the league, when a kid is presented with a fair contract that is 6-7 years long they take it, the option is KHL for 5-6 more years. If you trade a rental you get a 1st if you are lucky. Young kids with good contracts are so valuable that they almost never are traded, and when they are they fetch a ransom.

When you look back with hindsight, every contract could have been better. At the time they were signed, there were questions that have since been answered, mostly positively. It’s not fair to look back with today’s knowledge and call every contract a mistake. You don’t sign every unproven kid with question marks to 6-7 year deals.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Even if Tony wants to go the arbitration route until he’s a UFA, who cares?

Give him one or two year deals and then trade him the year before he goes UFA.

Winnipeg did it with Trouba

I think we would get a better return as we wouldn't be limited to 1-2 teams, the way Winnipeg was with Trouba.

I still think it would be a foolish move to trade the exact type of player we have been begging for throughout the years.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Doubt he plays. They'll just play Haley ugh

They better, I wanna see what he can do, thought he was an effective forechecker in the preseason, size limitations aside, his speed could be useful to a Chytil, Kakko line if Lemieux moves up.

 

[haohmaru]

We keep bringing up Jessiman and McIlrath forever as huge organization defining mistakes.

If you look at it objectively — Gorton’s mismanagement of TDAs contract — alone — will probably cost us more than those two failed draft picks. Under contract TDA, say 5 years at 3,5m per, would easily have fetched us a really good young forward we could build around. Now we will get less than what Trouba fetched Winnipeg.

And it’s just one of a looooooong line of mistakes of the same magnitude Gorton has made. How much would Kreider fetch today with 3-4 more years at a good rate? Imagine if we locked up JT Miller at say 4m per. What would he have returned? Or Hayes at 4-5m per?

Before these guys got arbitration rights they had zero leverage. As we see all over the league, when a kid is presented with a fair contract that is 6-7 years long they take it, the option is KHL for 5-6 more years. If you trade a rental you get a 1st if you are lucky. Young kids with good contracts are so valuable that they almost never are traded, and when they are they fetch a ransom.

This is just nonsensical revisionist history.

Let's say we signed him to that 5 year 17.5M deal and he had a season like last year - shuttling in and out of the press box and in DQ's doghouse. You'd be on here decrying Gorton's "mismanagement" handing out a contract like that to a guy that had "behavior" issues and OMG can we trade him immediately.

What's worse is neither you, nor anyone else on these boards, have any idea what the the Rangers offered, what ADA wanted, what was rejected, what was discussed, what term was being thrown about, etc...

It's one thing to criticize a contract when it's signed but it's entirely another to be speculating about deals that might never have been discussed or even asked for by a player or team.

 

[kovazub94]

This is just nonsensical revisionist history.

Let's say we signed him to that 5 year 17.5M deal and he had a season like last year - shuttling in and out of the press box and in DQ's doghouse. You'd be on here decrying Gorton's "mismanagement" handing out a contract like that to a guy that had "behavior" issues and OMG can we trade him immediately.

What's worse is neither you, nor anyone else on these boards, have any idea what the the Rangers offered, what ADA wanted, what was rejected, what was discussed, what term was being thrown about, etc...

It's one thing to criticize a contract when it's signed but it's entirely another to be speculating about deals that might never have been discussed or even asked for by a player or team.

To be fair @Ola was talking longer deals for ADA and Buchnevich and called not finding ways to give them a mistake by Gorton from the early summer, I’d doubt he’d be reversing his opinion barely 1/2 year later.

As far as the number goes, even if $17.5 somehow turned into $22.5 - it would be a good call regardless, a call Gorton probably should have made. But whether this call even feasible is the only Gorton’s defense I’d allow.

 

[n8]

We keep bringing up Jessiman and McIlrath forever as huge organization defining mistakes.

If you look at it objectively — Gorton’s mismanagement of TDAs contract — alone — will probably cost us more than those two failed draft picks. Under contract TDA, say 5 years at 3,5m per, would easily have fetched us a really good young forward we could build around. Now we will get less than what Trouba fetched Winnipeg.

And it’s just one of a looooooong line of mistakes of the same magnitude Gorton has made. How much would Kreider fetch today with 3-4 more years at a good rate? Imagine if we locked up JT Miller at say 4m per. What would he have returned? Or Hayes at 4-5m per?

Before these guys got arbitration rights they had zero leverage. As we see all over the league, when a kid is presented with a fair contract that is 6-7 years long they take it, the option is KHL for 5-6 more years. If you trade a rental you get a 1st if you are lucky. Young kids with good contracts are so valuable that they almost never are traded, and when they are they fetch a ransom.

Each era has its organization defining mistakes. The be more subjective about it, you would have to probably examine it by GM. Which bozo GM traded Rick Middleton to the Bruins? Or Brad Park and Ratelle for Esposito? Growing up I remember how dumb the Mike Ridley + Kelly Miller trade for Bobby Carpenter trade was. We had that clown for all of 28 games! Neil Smith has a laundry list of bad trades. I hated the Marc Savard trade. The Jari Kurri trade. The Zubov trade (and the fact that we would then trade Kovalev to get Nedved back again???). Jessiman and McIlrath are on Sather. Where would this organization be today if we had Getzlaf and Tarasenko on our roster? For starters, a 2014 Stanley Cup. Countless of bad trades avoided. Can you even imagine what the 2006 Rangers would have been like with Getzlaf with Shanahan and Straka-Nylander-Jagr? Any ways I think it is waaaay too early to be calling mistakes on TDA. We need to see what Gorton actually does with TDA before passing judgement. It's weird you have him crucified already. Like you've acquired your own version of the Back to the Future sports almanac and know Gorton got a bum deal on TDA.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I have a feeling if Di Giusseppe gets to play one game over Haley, that will be McKegg’s last game. McKegg has the hands of a bad ECHLer. Di Giusseppe, though the far inferior skater, can still keep up with the game a bit.

 

[17futurecap]

First thing this summer the Rangers should be doing is buying out Smith and Staal.

Smith 2020/2021 Savings 1,566,667 with a cap hit of 2,783,333
Staal 2020/2021 Savings 2,133,333 with a cap hit of 3,566,667

Total savings of 3,700,000 for next year. Even replacing them with say a d-man on his ELC making 925k and a forward like Di Giuseppe making 700 grand would only cost 1,625,000, still leaving you another 2.1 million savings to help with the RFA's.

2021/2022

Smith 2021/2022 cap hit of 783,333
Staal 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,066,667
Shatty 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,433,333
Girardi 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,111,111

Total buyout cap hits of 4,394,444 for the 2021/2022 season, and that's with Seattle entering the league, which should bring a higher cap.

 

[bbny]

First thing this summer the Rangers should be doing is buying out Smith and Staal.

Smith 2020/2021 Savings 1,566,667 with a cap hit of 2,783,333
Staal 2020/2021 Savings 2,133,333 with a cap hit of 3,566,667

Total savings of 3,700,000 for next year. Even replacing them with say a d-man on his ELC making 925k and a forward like Di Giuseppe making 700 grand would only cost 1,625,000, still leaving you another 2.1 million savings to help with the RFA's.

2021/2022

Smith 2021/2022 cap hit of 783,333
Staal 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,066,667
Shatty 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,433,333
Girardi 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,111,111

Total buyout cap hits of 4,394,444 for the 2021/2022 season, and that's with Seattle entering the league, which should bring a higher cap.

Yep. I'm betting this is the plan. That 2.1M savings will then cover Lemieux plus some. Let's say 900k extra with Lemieux coming in around 2 years @ 1.2M per.

Besides a higher cap with expansion, the buyout cap hits in 21/22 season are also easily absorbed by the expiring Lundqvist contract. And they do not impact probably the biggest and most pivotal offseason the Rangers will have in the next few years (Summer 2022) to make key decisions with Zibanejad going UFA and Fox/Kakko coming off ELCs.

 

[Ola]

When you look back with hindsight, every contract could have been better. At the time they were signed, there were questions that have since been answered, mostly positively. It’s not fair to look back with today’s knowledge and call every contract a mistake. You don’t sign every unproven kid with question marks to 6-7 year deals.

I am sorry but these arguments/excuses just don’t hold up.

1. In a Cap world, being able to have good contracts is as valuable as anything else (drafting/coaching/trading and so forth).

2. All good contracts were given to kids with question marks. Before the player gets arbitration rights the team has — all — the leverage. After it the player has all the leverage.

Just look around the league. Teams have one shot at negotiating a contract with all the leverage and they use it. Gorton does too, to get a big gain ONE year.

It’s one of a NHL GM’s most important duties to ensure that he has the little cap space he needs to take advantage of the second contract and make the right call.

3. You can’t give all kids long contracts? I’ve not said that, but if I had, is there a single long contract out there given to a kid that isn’t possible to trade? It’s almost risk free. Zaitsev, Bjugstad and co were traded.

A huge majority of all vets can’t be traded, all kids can.

 

[Ola]

This is just nonsensical revisionist history.

Let's say we signed him to that 5 year 17.5M deal and he had a season like last year - shuttling in and out of the press box and in DQ's doghouse. You'd be on here decrying Gorton's "mismanagement" handing out a contract like that to a guy that had "behavior" issues and OMG can we trade him immediately.

What's worse is neither you, nor anyone else on these boards, have any idea what the the Rangers offered, what ADA wanted, what was rejected, what was discussed, what term was being thrown about, etc...

It's one thing to criticize a contract when it's signed but it's entirely another to be speculating about deals that might never have been discussed or even asked for by a player or team.

This is just very uneducated excuses.

The player has zero leverage on his second contract. I am not saying that Gorton could have been able to strong arm them into signing for 8 years at 750k per season. The kid coming of an ELC can either sign a long term contract for 4-7 years in front of him or go and play in the KHL for 4-5 years. If the AAV of that long-term contract is fair the contract is almost always signed. You are portraying it as that we have no clue if a contract like that could have been done (say 5 years and 3.95m per for TDA). The 3.95m is just a finger in the air guess, but like 99 out of 100 the team can get the player to sign a contract somewhat like that.

Everyone knows why TDA was given the contract that will end up costing us a ton:
1. Gorton had no readily available cap-space.
2. Gorton is very skeptical about giving contracts longer than 2-3 years to kids. He reserves the long-term contracts for players that have already "earned them".

Smith and/or Staal could have been bought out. The "dead" cap space this and next year would have been vastly lower than the loss we will get on TDA's next contract. A Namestnikov trade could have been forced. Clearing cap space was definitely not impossible. Its a conscious decision by Gorton. Given the front-office's track record with evaluating young players, I bet that they struggled with realizing just how good TDA was playing last season, they knew Fox and Trouba would provide competition for the PP time and so forth. Giving the long contracts to players that have "earned it" is a horrible idea. You should of course give them to players who's stock is rising. Its like if you were in an investment competition where you were trying to be the best investor out of 31, and you only bought stocks in the companies that have performed the best the last 3-5 years.

I am sorry, but we will -- never -- come close to winning another cup with a GM that constantly fails to lock up players to contracts that becomes good deals. Take my word for it. Its just as important as drafting. And its a nightmare that Gorton completely is dropping the ball, it will end up killing us much sooner than what we realize.

He just MUST start to get these decisions right like yesterday. This just cannot keep happening time after time after time.

 

[haohmaru]

This is just very uneducated excuses.

No, your argument is based completely on speculation. Completely. You don't know what Tony D's ask was - maybe he was adamant about one year but didn't like that number because he thought he'd have a great year and have arbitration rights going into his next contract. You can say that "99% of players blah blah blah...." but, again, that's purely speculators unless you're in the room. Look at the "value" deals that guys like Marner signed who had ZERO leverage. How's that contract fit into your narrative?

I am sorry, but we will -- never -- come close to winning another cup with a GM that constantly fails to lock up players to contracts that becomes good deals. Take my word for it. Its just as important as drafting. And its a nightmare that Gorton completely is dropping the ball, it will end up killing us much sooner than what we realize.

So, how does locking up to Zibanejad to one of the best value contracts in the league fit into this "fails to lock up" nonsense that you're spewing about? Kreider's deal was pretty friendly too. Skjei was considered a value contract that took some UFA term into account.

The Rangers had very little cap space to work with and ADA was coming off an uneven season and you can couple that with not knowing ADA's ask - either term or $. He's not a great example to use for your argument.

 

[Good Intentions]

My ideal scenario on each player:

Kreider (resigns for a bit less, 6x6)
DeAngelo (I'll need a refresher on the RFA rules but I'd tag him again and delay the big pay)
Georgiev (stays and this plays out over the summer)
Lundqvist (see above)
Buchnevich (you already know, include in any deal)
Strome (can't pay him, becomes the odd man out. will be a solid 3rd line elsewhere)
Skjei (Happy to clear him out to open up cap room)
Lemieux (was worried we wouldn't be able to afford him in November. I think it'll be fine)
Fast (Trade if you can get the 2nd round pick. Will miss him)
Brendan Smith (Have to buy out the final year)
McKegg (seen enough, doesn't play another game after February)

 

[DutchShamrock]

LeBrun: Six specific trade deadline moves that make a lot of...

New York Rangers trade Chris Kreider to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick and RW Jordan Kyrou. (Rangers retain 50 percent of Kreider’s $4.625 million cap hit.)


My take: Yes, it’s a high price to pay. Teams don’t spend first-round picks at the deadline like they’re candy anymore. But here’s what I do know so far: Eight teams have informed the Rangers they’ve got Kreider at the top of their wish list.

 

[Kovalev27]

You can laugh at me but Kreider brings back more in a trade than Buch/Fast (and i like Fast), Staal and Strome together.
Kreider will bring back quality. the other guys you will most likely get quantity.
I honestly don't know what Skjei would bring back. Most of us have lost confidence in him.

nothing to laugh at there. Certainly no argument from me in that case. I just don’t think It makes us better anytime soon moving a core piece like him who brings as much as he does. Certainly not for another Brendan Lemieux type prospect and a late first rounder. I’d need a sure thing prospect to move Kreider. But that’s me.

 

[wafflepadsave]

LeBrun: Six specific trade deadline moves that make a lot of...

Love the idea but they have pumped up our expectations before.

 

[NYR Viper]

First thing this summer the Rangers should be doing is buying out Smith and Staal.

Smith 2020/2021 Savings 1,566,667 with a cap hit of 2,783,333
Staal 2020/2021 Savings 2,133,333 with a cap hit of 3,566,667

Total savings of 3,700,000 for next year. Even replacing them with say a d-man on his ELC making 925k and a forward like Di Giuseppe making 700 grand would only cost 1,625,000, still leaving you another 2.1 million savings to help with the RFA's.

2021/2022

Smith 2021/2022 cap hit of 783,333
Staal 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,066,667
Shatty 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,433,333
Girardi 2021/2022 cap hit of 1,111,111

Total buyout cap hits of 4,394,444 for the 2021/2022 season, and that's with Seattle entering the league, which should bring a higher cap.

Curious to know if anyone else feels Gorton may be able to trade either Staal or Smith with half retained for a similar forward with a season left or if buyouts are really the best course of action.

 

[Kovalev27]

I don’t see how buying out smith helps us. Frankly the way he’s used he’s a fourth line wing but also an extra Dman. Considering we only save like a mil and a half buying him out that money is basically a wash. Is he a good 4th line wing? Not really but it’s helpful having that security on the pk for our young Dmen.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I still feel someone would take Smith if we retained half. I mean I injuries happen, he can play forward or D, PK on d. It would be a nice insurance policy for some team that had the room, not sure if anyone who would need him does though. Maybe St.Louis? But they got petrangelo to deal with next year.

 

[Kovalev27]

I’m more interested if someone would take Staal with a year left on his deal. Becomes more attractive I’d have to think

 

[Good Intentions]

From Pierre LeBrun and the Athletic, ‘Six Deadline Deals that makes a lot of sense”

certainly supports my notion of a random in the first rounder and high end prospect for 20:

however... @Kovalev27 - I absolutely agree, could see Kreider resigning at the final hour. He’s a different cat, nothing would surprise me there. Trying to look at it as a win/win...

New York Rangers trade Chris Kreider to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick and RW Jordan Kyrou. (Rangers retain 50 percent of Kreider’s $4.625 million cap hit).

My take: Yes, it’s a high price to pay. Teams don’t spend first-round picks at the deadline like they’re candy anymore. But here’s what I do know so far: Eight teams have informed the Rangers they’ve got Kreider at the top of their wish list. And the Rangers are looking for at least the return they got on Kevin Hayes a year ago at the deadline. The Jets gave up a first-round pick and winger Brendan Lemieux for renting out pending UFA Hayes. Now, Hayes is a centre, Kreider is a winger. But Kreider currently is the top of the rental class.

The Blues have other young forward prospects coming up the pipeline. I’m sure they would hate giving up the promising Kyrou, 21, but Kreider is such a nice fit with his playing style on the Blues, who are eager to defend their Stanley Cup title. Maybe the Blues can try to condition the first-round pick to make sure they get out of the first round of the playoffs at least. But given the serious interest in Kreider, I’m not sure that’s going to be an option. It’s not clear yet if Vladimir Tarasenko will be back before the playoffs, and that has major cap implications, but the Rangers retaining gives the Blues more breathing room either way.

 

[GAGLine]

I still feel someone would take Smith if we retained half. I mean I injuries happen, he can play forward or D, PK on d. It would be a nice insurance policy for some team that had the room, not sure if anyone who would need him does though. Maybe St.Louis? But they got petrangelo to deal with next year.

Smith could be moved at the next deadline. I don't see a team being interested before then. He's versatile, but not particularly good at anything at this point. A little over 2 mil for a 13th forward/7 dman is a bit much to pay. At the deadline, that 2 mil will be prorated and he'll be expiring, so maybe.

 

[Ola]

No, your argument is based completely on speculation. Completely. You don't know what Tony D's ask was - maybe he was adamant about one year but didn't like that number because he thought he'd have a great year and have arbitration rights going into his next contract. You can say that "99% of players blah blah blah...." but, again, that's purely speculators unless you're in the room. Look at the "value" deals that guys like Marner signed who had ZERO leverage. How's that contract fit into your narrative?

I am sorry but it only seems like this to you because you obviously don't have insight into how these things work. You are lost after your first mistaken assumption that it has a big impact what Tony D's ask was. In reality Tony D's ask could have been 16m per for 1 year or 2.5m per for 8 years, there was one document presented to him and he could choose between inking that document or go to the KHL almost his entire 20's. His "ask" was completely irrelevant.

Negotiations with players can be divided into two categories post the ELC:
1. When we talk about "leverage" in negotiations this is what is referred to. A player coming of his ELC has very limited leverage. He can only hold out or go and play in Europe or ink whatever offer he gets from his NHL team. There is no other option available. TDA was in that situation. That is not speculation, it is a fact.

2. Once a player gets arbitration rights, he can request arbitration and get what a 3rd party deem is fair for 1-2 years and he can do it until the becomes a UFA at the age of 25 or 27. In this instance, the team has very little leverage. The team cannot force the players hand in any way. It can accept the award, or walk away. But it cannot prevent the player for getting paid fair market value until the player becomes a UFA at the age of 25-27. That is also not speculation, it is a fact.

TDA de facto sorted under the first. It is this opportunity that a GM must take advantage of. And Gorton takes advantage of it for sure, but only to strong arm kids into getting paid nothing for 1-2 years. After that the player gets all the leverage and we are screwed and forced to always trade high value assets for cents on the dollar.

I hope this explains it!

I can also answer all your other arguments, but everyone always complain on that I write so long posts so I try to keep it short. 1. Marner used the little leverage he had, and because he is so good that was enough. He held out, and threatened to hold out the entire season, just like Nylander. Do you think TDA would have forced Gorton's hand and held out for an entire season if Gorton only presented him with a fair 5-6 year deal (say around 4m per)? TDAs wasn't proven, Marner was. 2. What is your point with Ziba, I don't follow? A big advantage for us from Day 1 with Ziba is that he really really really wants to be here, play in NY. It has motivated him off the ice to be devoted enough. It has led to him firing his agent and negotiating his new deal directly with Gorton himself (along with his brother). And just to answer a question nobody have made yet but is sure to come "But oLLa you are lost nobody goes to arbitration why do you talka bout that???" The reason there are so few actual arbitration awards is that it is a very transparent proceeding and everyone knows what the result will be with a marginal margin of error, and hence everyone settle just before it. Fact, not speculation.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I’m more interested if someone would take Staal with a year left on his deal. Becomes more attractive I’d have to think

Unless AV wants him back, no chance.

 

[Kovalev27]

Unless AV wants him back, no chance.

I don’t know reputation veteran presence no risk on a one year deal could be a stabilizing guy for a rookie you really like or a young guy like DeAngelo. Might be possible to move him this summer. Wouldn’t surprise me let’s put it that way.

we give him a lot of crap but I can count on one hand how many 5 on 5 goals against Staal has been on the ice for in the last 2 months or so.