Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXVI
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huh? You’re saying he never said what I said he said. Yeah he did.
He said he thinks we’ll make an offer.
NYR Viper
Registered User
Im still not sure why it isn’t mandatory for all players to wear some sort of full body anti-cut under armor. It wouldn’t even be that expensive or difficult
NYR Viper
Registered User
It depends on what the team does with Staal, Smith and Hank
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
I think they’ll be able to make it work no matter what the team does with those guys.
Yeah, but some cases when it has happened there have been mutual affection between the organization and the player, as is the case here.
If it’s Kreider or what, I think management want to toss a bone to the “vets” before next season.
Also, I think there is a bit false sense of security in the “they are the youngest team in the league” part. The youngies has played really well. Our issues are not necessarily of the kind that will be fixed by a year of growth for the kids. Sure the kids will get better, but if you remove Kreider and compensate for that loss with kids growth — how much better will we be?
Remember that our roster will be tremendously expensive really really fast because the brass and everyone around it just can’t figure out how the CBA works or identify talent even if it’s right infront of them. There are many posters here who LOVES bridge deals, wants to pay vets because they “DESERVE” it and so forth.
Hence you can even argue that this year is our “best” year to win a cup with the current generation. Starting from next year we will start to lose players already due to Gorton’s inability to manage contracts. The NHL is a copy cap league, most franchises realized this a good 5 years ago. But we have a sense of entitlement and think our way is the best. One Cup in 80 years...
my bad what he said is consistent with what you said.
I thought you were proclaiming this as fact like bob.
his whole article is basically saying that at this point we should start building can’t keep blowing out good players. That’s basically his argument for keeping Kreider
- Aug 5, 2010
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Then it’s just me because I am used to shaking my head a lot reading his takes or game analysis. And if Larry reports that there’s been no contract negotiations then I will take it over any fluff from Carp.
Brooklyn Rangers Fan
Change is good.
Trouba is going nowhere, despite the fever dreams of the ADA fans who want him gone so that they can give Tony all the monies and he can play here forever and ever and be their best friend.
He levered his way here, Gorts gave up assets to acquire him, and then signed him to a long-term deal with a NMC that kicks in this summer. All of this was done with the intention of making him a core piece of the team coming out of the rebuild. He also plays a pivotal role as the top-pair, top-PK, minute-eating defensive stalwart who allows everyone else to slot into much easier minutes (and who, oh by the way, is also on pace to score 35-40 points despite limited PP time and 58% d-zone starts). None of that has changed in 6 1/2 months.
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Carp is solid but again, he’s merely stating his opinion and it’s quiet a leap to assume that he’s changed his mind because he’s heard differently (if he had, I’m pretty sure he would have said so.)
the fact that they haven’t talked numbers 3 weeks out is pretty telling to me.
the fact that they haven’t talked numbers 3 weeks out is pretty telling to me.
Brooklyn Rangers Fan
Change is good.
Don't see them giving up Hintz. He's too important a piece for a team looking to make a run.
We have trade a lot of players because of Gorton’s brain dead bridgedeals. Smart!
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
I think the question should be, would he help them more than Strome.
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
The time to get Hintz was previous seasons
He’s not going anywhere anytime soon
He’s not going anywhere anytime soon
lol well ok but that’s different than saying even Carp agrees we are rebuilding. That’s hardly the take of the article.
his article is about building up at this point not continuing to tear down, about the importance of Kreider in the room and to Mika, and how we should keep him because of all the reasons we’ve discussed here in terms of what he brings on and off the ice.
to me this is easy. Buchnevich Fast Staal Strome should all be looked at to be moved before discussing letting Kreider walk.
I’d entertain Skjei even if it came down to it.
but Kreider brings a ton more than any of these guys
Brooklyn Rangers Fan
Change is good.
Sure, that makes sense in the abstract, but when's the last time any team with Cup aspirations moved a major contributor like Hintz to acquire another piece they thought would be somewhat better? The goal is to come out with a major injection to the existing squad by trading assets not currently contributing (meaningfully) to the mix. "Hockey trades" tend to occur over the summer/in the first half of the year when they happen.
I am in the keep Kreider camp because I think the playoffs are next year and serious contender status begins the year after. Kreider will still be a major contributor by then and based on the article posted below on the age of decline I expect he will perform at current Kreider levels or close to them for at least five of an anticipated seven year deal. I am also generally in favor of the "keep this team mostly together and let it mature" option. There seems to be good chemistry on this team and young teams take time to mature.
Why do I think we are not so far from contention?
Offense
Offensively, we are already in the top 10 in goals per game team at 3.26 goals per game. Nothing needs to be done to the top two lines and there is evident chemistry among them that might not be easy to replicate. That doesn't mean that those lines could not be improved, but they are close to a goal a game as it stands.
It is easy to imagine the third line improving over the few next years and it does not have to be a lot. Imagine Chytil and Kaako at 25 goals each and Lemieux at 10. They would be scoring roughly .75 goals a game instead of about half a goal per game. That improvement of .25 goals per game would already have the Rangers hovering around 4th in goals per game. The 4th line does need to be completely fixed. Maybe that comes from Barron and Kravtsov arriving (with others possibly moving down a line or two). But imagine a 4th line that can score at all, maybe 15-20 goals total. Not a big ask, but together with improvement on the third line, the total .5 goal a game improvement would move the Rangers up to first in goals per game. One problem with trading Kreider is that we are far weaker at Left Wing than Right Wing and I don't see any logical replacement for him.
Goaltending
We have three good ones now. I don't expect Henrik to still be around when we contend for real and probably not Georgiev either, but as long as we have Benoit Allaire I have confidence that we will always have two excellent goaltenders.
Defense
This is the main area of weakness (currently, the 9th worst team), but it is also the main reason why I think we should consider waiting for the ingredients to ripen. Defense is always the hardest for young players. Players usually reach the NHL because they were offensive and physical talents. And because of that, they were usually able to defend based on those assets and not by relying on system or technique.
Young teams make dumb plays and hopefully learn from them. Young teams take time to learn a system and to communicate and not to free lance. Young teams take time to learn that they can't just rely on being stronger, faster or more skilled to defend, like they did in the lower levels. Young teams take time to learn where they are supposed to be and where their teammates (if they are not continually traded) will be. And young teams are inconsistent and sometimes take a step back before continuing to improve.
I think there has already been improvement (2.5 goals against average in the last 10 games, instead of our seasonal average of 3.18).
We have a number of skilled defenseman (perhaps not enough stay at home LHDs) and more on the way. And the young forwards have to learn defense too, but are plenty skilled and fast (except on the 4th line). In any case, I expect significant organic improvement in the defense.
Managing the Cap
This seems to be mostly a one year problem as big contracts and dead cap hits come off the books after next year and most folks expect a significant cap increase with the new TV contract. Spotrac shows the Rangers with $19,821,867 of cap room next year (I have also seen lower numbers-Capfriendly says $16.5 million). The difference seems to depend mostly on what next year's cap is--Spotrac is basing it on $83 million-Capfriendly on $81.5 million).
There are two UFAs (Kreider and Fast) and four RFAs (Dangelo, Strome, Georgiev and Lemieux) of substance. If they all get the high end of what is expected, it is impossible to keep them all without some luck with Hank's situation, but it is pretty close.
The high end seems to be Kreider ($7 million), the combo of Strome and Deangelo ($12 million), Georgiev-$4.5 million, Fast $3 million and Lemieux-$1.5 million. That is $28 million. But there is no way that both Georgiev and Henrik are around. There are three possibilities. (i) Hank waives and gets traded or retires (which virtually eliminates the cap problem by itself), (ii) Georgiev is traded or (iii) Georgiev stays and Hank is bought out. The last is the worst case from a cap perspective, but takes the $28 million down to $25 million. There are two other Rangers who I don't see as part of the next run, Smith and Staal. Buying them out would save $3.7 on the cap. That would take us to $21.3 million. In my mind, that makes Fast the cap casualty rather than Kreider.
With all the talent and assets in the system, including many more real good RHDs than we will ever be able to play, I can't imagine that we would not be able to make trades and overpay if necessary to make adjustments to cover what should be a relatively small gap. Also, the numbers I have used are generally high end. Strome and Deangelo might be $11 million combined (I combined them because the expected ranges for each seemed to differ quite a lot) and maybe Kreider, Fast and Lemieux each cost $250,000-$500,000 less than the numbers I used.
I think even with a seven-year contract, Kreider will be playing close to his peak for one play-off year (next year) and three or four window is open years. And he could well be better than that. I know this has been posted on the gneral forum before, but below is a link to an article as to when hockey players decline. It suggests that forwards reach their peak at 28 and perform at no less than 90 percent of their peak through age 32. It also suggests that elite power forwards decline more slowly.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2646054
I expect Kreider will lose some of his speed. I think he will likely end up relying more on his strength. With the expected growth in the cap over seven years, a declining Kreider will make up less than 7% of the team cap in the last couple of years and may be a third line player and a power play net presence for the last year or two of his contract. I am in favor of living with that result. I don't see us being able to replace what Kreider brings quickly or more cheaply in the near future.
Why do I think we are not so far from contention?
Offense
Offensively, we are already in the top 10 in goals per game team at 3.26 goals per game. Nothing needs to be done to the top two lines and there is evident chemistry among them that might not be easy to replicate. That doesn't mean that those lines could not be improved, but they are close to a goal a game as it stands.
It is easy to imagine the third line improving over the few next years and it does not have to be a lot. Imagine Chytil and Kaako at 25 goals each and Lemieux at 10. They would be scoring roughly .75 goals a game instead of about half a goal per game. That improvement of .25 goals per game would already have the Rangers hovering around 4th in goals per game. The 4th line does need to be completely fixed. Maybe that comes from Barron and Kravtsov arriving (with others possibly moving down a line or two). But imagine a 4th line that can score at all, maybe 15-20 goals total. Not a big ask, but together with improvement on the third line, the total .5 goal a game improvement would move the Rangers up to first in goals per game. One problem with trading Kreider is that we are far weaker at Left Wing than Right Wing and I don't see any logical replacement for him.
Goaltending
We have three good ones now. I don't expect Henrik to still be around when we contend for real and probably not Georgiev either, but as long as we have Benoit Allaire I have confidence that we will always have two excellent goaltenders.
Defense
This is the main area of weakness (currently, the 9th worst team), but it is also the main reason why I think we should consider waiting for the ingredients to ripen. Defense is always the hardest for young players. Players usually reach the NHL because they were offensive and physical talents. And because of that, they were usually able to defend based on those assets and not by relying on system or technique.
Young teams make dumb plays and hopefully learn from them. Young teams take time to learn a system and to communicate and not to free lance. Young teams take time to learn that they can't just rely on being stronger, faster or more skilled to defend, like they did in the lower levels. Young teams take time to learn where they are supposed to be and where their teammates (if they are not continually traded) will be. And young teams are inconsistent and sometimes take a step back before continuing to improve.
I think there has already been improvement (2.5 goals against average in the last 10 games, instead of our seasonal average of 3.18).
We have a number of skilled defenseman (perhaps not enough stay at home LHDs) and more on the way. And the young forwards have to learn defense too, but are plenty skilled and fast (except on the 4th line). In any case, I expect significant organic improvement in the defense.
Managing the Cap
This seems to be mostly a one year problem as big contracts and dead cap hits come off the books after next year and most folks expect a significant cap increase with the new TV contract. Spotrac shows the Rangers with $19,821,867 of cap room next year (I have also seen lower numbers-Capfriendly says $16.5 million). The difference seems to depend mostly on what next year's cap is--Spotrac is basing it on $83 million-Capfriendly on $81.5 million).
There are two UFAs (Kreider and Fast) and four RFAs (Dangelo, Strome, Georgiev and Lemieux) of substance. If they all get the high end of what is expected, it is impossible to keep them all without some luck with Hank's situation, but it is pretty close.
The high end seems to be Kreider ($7 million), the combo of Strome and Deangelo ($12 million), Georgiev-$4.5 million, Fast $3 million and Lemieux-$1.5 million. That is $28 million. But there is no way that both Georgiev and Henrik are around. There are three possibilities. (i) Hank waives and gets traded or retires (which virtually eliminates the cap problem by itself), (ii) Georgiev is traded or (iii) Georgiev stays and Hank is bought out. The last is the worst case from a cap perspective, but takes the $28 million down to $25 million. There are two other Rangers who I don't see as part of the next run, Smith and Staal. Buying them out would save $3.7 on the cap. That would take us to $21.3 million. In my mind, that makes Fast the cap casualty rather than Kreider.
With all the talent and assets in the system, including many more real good RHDs than we will ever be able to play, I can't imagine that we would not be able to make trades and overpay if necessary to make adjustments to cover what should be a relatively small gap. Also, the numbers I have used are generally high end. Strome and Deangelo might be $11 million combined (I combined them because the expected ranges for each seemed to differ quite a lot) and maybe Kreider, Fast and Lemieux each cost $250,000-$500,000 less than the numbers I used.
I think even with a seven-year contract, Kreider will be playing close to his peak for one play-off year (next year) and three or four window is open years. And he could well be better than that. I know this has been posted on the gneral forum before, but below is a link to an article as to when hockey players decline. It suggests that forwards reach their peak at 28 and perform at no less than 90 percent of their peak through age 32. It also suggests that elite power forwards decline more slowly.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2646054
I expect Kreider will lose some of his speed. I think he will likely end up relying more on his strength. With the expected growth in the cap over seven years, a declining Kreider will make up less than 7% of the team cap in the last couple of years and may be a third line player and a power play net presence for the last year or two of his contract. I am in favor of living with that result. I don't see us being able to replace what Kreider brings quickly or more cheaply in the near future.
Anyone who has watched Dallas much going back to last years playoffs knows that Hintz is one of their most dangerous offensive players. He isn't going anywhere.
You can laugh at me but Kreider brings back more in a trade than Buch/Fast (and i like Fast), Staal and Strome together.
Kreider will bring back quality. the other guys you will most likely get quantity.
I honestly don't know what Skjei would bring back. Most of us have lost confidence in him.
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