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Speculation: Roster Building LX: The Return of Cap(tain) Crunch aka LB Bus Stop Theme

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Leetch3 said:
what is evolving wild and where are they getting these predictions from and based on what? if you know
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Evolving Wild are a pair of twins who are big names in the analytics community.

When Matt Cane was hired by the Devils, and his pretty decent salary projection model left the public-sphere, the twins decided to take their own crack at it. I don't find it to be as good as what Cane had, but it's decent enough.
 
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Tony is going to get a shit deal then cash in. He’s going to put up 50 pts. If he actually plays every night he’s at least a 50 pt guy.

He needs to grow up a bit and in this specific case I can’t blame us for making him prove it on a one or two year deal. But he’s going to be asking for a huge raise on his next deal and he’s going to be worth it IMO. He’s so so good. Really is.
 
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Kovalev27 said:
Tony is going to get a **** deal then cash in. He’s going to put up 50 pts. If he actually plays every night he’s at least a 50 pt guy.

He needs to grow up a bit and in this specific case I can’t blame us for making him prove it on a one or two year deal. But he’s going to be asking for a huge raise on his next deal and he’s going to be worth it IMO. He’s so so good. Really is.
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There's no denying that he is very skilled and talented with the puck on his stick, but my butthole puckers damn near every time when he's in his own zone playing defense.

He's RFA no arb this year, and the Rangers will still have 2 years of RFA control with arb after this I believe. There's really no reason to give him a long deal this year. Make him prove he can clean up his act off the ice and in his own zone. They'll still have plenty of control and leverage to sign him long term at a decent price.
 
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Personally, I think any Kreider deal should include Smith, Staal, Namestnikov or Shattenkirk. Kreider is an asset and a conduit to offload one of those contracts.
 
Kreider and Staal to Wild for Jordan Greenway and a pick

Kreider and Smith to Ducks for Sam Steel and a pick

Kreider and Smith to Sharks for Dylan Gambrell and a conditional first

Kreider and Smith to Jets for Jack Raslovic and Logan Stanley
 
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bbny said:
There's no denying that he is very skilled and talented with the puck on his stick, but my butthole puckers damn near every time when he's in his own zone playing defense.

He's RFA no arb this year, and the Rangers will still have 2 years of RFA control with arb after this I believe. There's really no reason to give him a long deal this year. Make him prove he can clean up his act off the ice and in his own zone. They'll still have plenty of control and leverage to sign him long term at a decent price.
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I think he improved a lot defensively over the year along with his physicality
 
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Kaapo Feel said:
Personally, I think any Kreider deal should include Smith, Staal, Namestnikov or Shattenkirk. Kreider is an asset and a conduit to offload one of those contracts.
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Again - no.

Why are we attaching those contracts to kreider when they expire naturally in one/two seasons? We barely have anyone to sign until then. We just need enough to sign our three RFAs right now. Using Kreider to dump a contract would be monumentally stupid, unless you really think you can get Sam Steel for that I guess.
 
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Kaapo Feel said:
So we should suffer through cap hits instead of trading them?
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100% yes...the cap space isn't that bad. they should try to avoid the buyouts if they can. the only idea worse than dead space from a buyout is ruining the return of our only remaining trade chip to avoid that dead space.

if you want to trade away a 5th round pick to get someone to take their contracts thats fine
 
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Leetch3 said:
100% yes...the cap space isn't that bad. they should try to avoid the buyouts if they can. the only idea worse than dead space from a buyout is ruining the return of our only remaining trade chip to avoid that dead space.

if you want to trade away a 5th round pick to get someone to take their contracts thats fine
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That's not going to be enough. You think we can get rid of Staal or Smith by including just a fifth rounder?
 
Kovalev27 said:
Tony is going to get a **** deal then cash in. He’s going to put up 50 pts. If he actually plays every night he’s at least a 50 pt guy.

He needs to grow up a bit and in this specific case I can’t blame us for making him prove it on a one or two year deal. But he’s going to be asking for a huge raise on his next deal and he’s going to be worth it IMO. He’s so so good. Really is.
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You could argue that he was our second best skater last season. Kreider only showed up half the season. Zucc had issues. And so forth.

At the end, we almost exclusively created offense when TDA was on the ice.
 
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I think you keep Strome if at all possible. He's versatile, he fills in at 2C if the kids aren't ready for it or seem to be more formidable wingers. He's also high pedigree guy who could potentially be a fairly long term fit in your top 9 if you can work out a more team friendly deal next time around. He's played in NY before, and then suffered Edmonton so he may be a guy who'd really like to stay around.

I also think Shattenkirk is a guy you keep around right now, because I'm assuming he has zero value, and a buyout hurts you the most next year. I also think he has the most reasonable chance of a rebound among our 3 'anchor' defenseman. It's possible he rebounds with a healthy offseason and becomes reasonably formidable allowing him to be moved with retention at some point during the season. You then have Fox to hopefully move up and take his spot.

1. I think the most sensible move would be to trade Names - I do think he has some value. Maybe you have to take a guy who makes 1-1.5 million that a team has lost interest in to bury in the minors or play in the bottom 6. You may very well live with a mid round pick. Maybe throw away a mid-round pick or repetitive prospect if necessary like a Lindgren, but I doubt it comes to that.

2. The second move is to move on from Smith. Try to trade him, but it's very possible that he's a buyout candidate. I'm not a fan of buyouts, but if the market isn't there for Kreider today then I'd rather do that and recoup full value for Kreider later. Obviously if a team ponies up for CK now, then this could be a non-issue. In that scenario he could be your vastly overpaid 7d/13F.
 
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I would personally not be opposed to attaching Smith/Shattenkirk to Kreider to help facilitate a deal knowing I’m getting less back. The problem is there are very few teams who could even accept both of them at 100%.
 
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SA16 said:
I would personally not be opposed to attaching Smith/Shattenkirk to Kreider to help facilitate a deal knowing I’m getting less back. The problem is there are very few teams who could even accept both of them at 100%.
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And the teams that would be able to take both, likely are on one of Krieder or Shattenkirk no trade list.
 
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i am firmly on the board of offering names to ottawa for one of macarthur or gaborik, then placing them on LTIR for “cap relief”

makes sense when you notice that not only does namestnikov have 1-year remaining and can be flipped by ottawa at the deadline with 50% retained, but he is also payed less actual salary than either player returning for cheap eugene.

makes sense to me

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you can then trade strome for a cheap, controllable player (hudon from montreal example) and theres approximately 6.5M in relief.

then you can decide to send fox to minors until TDL or keep him up in rotation with deangelo and hajek, which is an option i am opposed to but still an option nonetheless. Tony needs to play a full season, and i really think he can get to 45 ish points this year with 2 PP minutes. shattenkirk can then be moved at TDL to make room for fox, or wait until summer to move/buy him out, and bite the bullet and have him in roatation/scratched at end of season. depending on those other more important matters, they can choose to bury smith or buy him out now, or even use him as healthy scratch
 
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kinger8998 said:
i am firmly on the board of offering names to ottawa for one of macarthur or gaborik, then placing them on LTIR for “cap relief”

makes sense when you notice that not only does namestnikov have 1-year remaining and can be flipped by ottawa at the deadline with 50% retained, but he is also payed less actual salary than either player returning for cheap eugene.

makes sense to me

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you can then trade strome for a cheap, controllable player (hudon from montreal example) and theres approximately 6.5M in relief.

then you can decide to send fox to minors until TDL or keep him up in rotation with deangelo and hajek, which is an option i am opposed to but still an option nonetheless. Tony needs to play a full season, and i really think he can get to 45 ish points this year with 2 PP minutes. shattenkirk can then be moved at TDL to make room for fox, or wait until summer to move/buy him out, and bite the bullet and have him in roatation/scratched at end of season. depending on those other more important matters, they can choose to bury smith or buy him out now, or even use him as healthy scratch
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Their contracts are covered by insurance
 
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Ran this through capfriendly.

Option 1: Shattenkirk Buyout
Buyout Shattenkirk.
Trade Namestnikov ($1M retained) to Columbus for 2021 4th Round Pick.

Sign Buchnevich $4.6M AAV for 5 years.
Sign Deangelo $1.75M for 1 year.
Sign Lemieux $1M for 1 year.
Sign Lettieri $700K for 1 year.
Sign Alex Petrovic $1M for 1 year.

Demote Beleskey.
Demote McKegg.
Demote Lettieri.
Demote Fox.

Promote Kravtsov.

Cap hit: $79,764,799
Cap space: $1,735,201

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Chytil-Kakko
Kravtsov-Andersson-Strome
Lemieux-Howden-Fast
Nieves

Skjei-Trouba
Staal-DeAngelo
Hajek-Petrovic
Smith

Lundqvist
Georgiev

2020-21 Offseason
Cap space: $15,277,701

UFA
Kreider (traded for assets later)
Fast (traded or walks)
Petrovic (walks)

RFA
DeAngelo - $4M for 5 years
Lemieux - $3M for 4 years
Strome - don't qualify or trade
Nieves - walks
Georgiev - $2.5M for 2 years

Estimated cap space: $5.5M

2021-22 Offseason
Cap space: $42,262,699
2020 signings: $9.5M
Remaining space: $33M

UFA
Staal
Smith
Lundqvist

RFA
Chytil
Andersson
Howden
Hajek

Who knows what those guys will get, but we're fine.

Option 2: Buyout Smith
Buyout Smith.
Trade Namestnikov to Columbus for 2021 5th Round Pick (no retention)

Sign Buchnevich $4.6M AAV for 5 years.
Sign Deangelo $1.75M for 1 year.
Sign Lemieux $1M for 1 year.
Sign Lettieri $700K for 1 year.

Demote Beleskey.
Demote McKegg.
Demote Lettieri.
Demote Fox.

Promote Kravtsov.
Promote Raddysh.

Cap hit: $81,282,299
Cap space: $217,701

2020-21 Offseason
Cap space: $15,915,201

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Chytil-Kakko
Kravtsov-Andersson-Strome
Lemiuex-Howden-Fast
Nieves

Skjei-Trouba
Staal-DeAngelo
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Raddysh

Lundqvist
Georgiev

UFA
Kreider (traded for assets later)
Fast (traded or walks)
Petrovic (walks)

RFA
DeAngelo - $4M for 5 years
Lemieux - $3M for 4 years
Strome - don't qualify or trade
Nieves - walks
Georgiev - $2.5M for 2 years

Estimated cap space: $6.4M

2021-22 Offseason

Cap space: $42,550,199
2020 signings: $9.5M
Remaining space: $33M

UFA
Staal
Smith
Lundqvist

RFA
Chytil
Andersson
Howden
Hajek

Who knows what those RFAs will get, but we're fine.

I prefer Option 1 because next year, we will be fine and even have room to add a $3-5M player on a 1-2 year deal if needed. The cap hits for a Shatty buyout make our dead space in 21-22 and 22-23 so minimal, only $2.5M combined with Girardi. Just bite the bullet and get rid of him.
 
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