Value of: ROR to the Leafs at the deadline.

[Gary Nylund]

A ROR, or Bertuzzi, or Meier, or Tarasenko etc could be the difference.

Could be, people were saying the same thing about Foligno but that didn't work out well. I stand by what I said before - how our goalies play will be way more important than whether or not we add someone like ROR and adding someone like ROR improves our cup chances by maybe 1% or so and that's just not worth it IMO.

That's not how we measure if someone is declining or not. Going from 61 in 71 to their career best point pace is not a decline....

I said his production has been declining, how do you suggest we measure that if not by looking at his production? Career best point pace is great, but that's not the player we're talking about today now is it? I mean I guess you can pretend it is, but I doubt you're fooling anyone.

1st ... 2nd ... 7th ... 8th = decline.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Could be, people were saying the same thing about Foligno but that didn't work out well. I stand by what I said before - how our goalies play will be way more important than whether or not we add someone like ROR and adding someone like ROR improves our cup chances by maybe 1% or so and that's just not worth it IMO.


I said his production has been declining, how do you suggest we measure that if not by looking at his production? Career best point pace is great, but that's not the player we're talking about today now is it? I mean I guess you can pretend it is, but I doubt you're fooling anyone.

1st ... 2nd ... 7th ... 8th = decline.

Why would you use where they finish on the team in points instead of their actual point production? That's just stupid. There are arguments against paying a premium rental price for ROR, but claiming he's been on a 4-5 year decline just doesn't match reality.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why would you use where they finish on the team in points instead of their actual point production? That's just stupid. There are arguments against paying a premium rental price for ROR, but claiming he's been on a 4-5 year decline just doesn't match reality.

I added his rank on his own team for added context and I included actual production in a post which you quoted earlier. I suggest you read more carefully before quoting and insulting people in the future, not doing so might make you look ... well, I'm not going to say it.

He's now on pace for 35 points this season, which would be his worst season in a very, very long time. You can argue the semantics about how best to describe his decline but the fact is that this is a player who's production is declining and to argue otherwise is ... well, I'm not going to say it.

ROR was once a great player but those days are over. He's still a good player, you'll probably find someone willing to pay a 1st for him. I think it's nuts to talk about getting Knies, or a 1st and a 2nd + a prospect like some people are dreaming about though, we'll see.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

From 1st on the team to 2nd on the team to 7th on the team to 8th on the team, seems like a steady decline to me.

I don't understand this state of mind. If you want to call him declining sure, whatever. But using "how much he scored compared to the rest of the team" is silly.

That's like saying a player who scores 55-60 points a season every year is declining because he goes from 1st on the team to 5th without acknowledging that the 4 players who jumped him are all scoring at over a point per game.

Is RoR declining? It could be very well the case. and i won't deny that as a possibility.

But, there's also something rotten in the Blues locker room. There's only 3 players that look anywhere close to themselves from last year (Kyrou, Thomas, and Buchnevich).

 

[yeaher]

The leafs kicked the avs ass last night, it doesn't matter they are too top heavy, avs are getting there themselves. That performance a 6-2 win in Denver on New Years Eve, yeah Marner was sensational, Matthews legit and counted; but let's be honest that's not going to happen in the playoffs (I'll take the jin, love to see the Mapeys win the Cup now). They are f***ed by two things Dubas, and.... COVID, flat cap has f***ed a lot of top teams, of course it's gonna f*** the team that already f***ed itself before COVID.

The leafs kicked the avs ass last night, it doesn't matter they are too top heavy, avs are getting there themselves. That performance a 6-2 win in Denver on New Years Eve, yeah Marner was sensational, Matthews legit and counted; but let's be honest that's not going to happen in the playoffs (I'll take the jin, love to see the Mapeys win the Cup now). They are f***ed by two things Dubas, and.... COVID, flat cap has f***ed a lot of top teams, of course it's gonna f*** the team that already f***ed itself before COVID.

Watch them win the cup now*


*hahaha

 

[TheBeastCoast]

ROR out with a broken foot....curious how significant and whether it will have any effect on the deadline.

 

[Auston Marlander]

ROR out with a broken foot....curious how significant and whether it will have any effect on the deadline.

4-6 weeks normally but up to 12 if it's bad. You'd think it would have some impact in value as a rental. There's a real chance he doesn't get back to 100% this year. And to that point depending on the severity might not be the rental top teams want this year.

 

[Stealth JD]

4-6 weeks normally but up to 12 if it's bad. You'd think it would have some impact in value as a rental. There's a real chance he doesn't get back to 100% this year. And to that point depending on the severity might not be the rental top teams want this year.

Or he'll be well rested and ready to go on a long playoff run...

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't understand this state of mind. If you want to call him declining sure, whatever. But using "how much he scored compared to the rest of the team" is silly.

That's like saying a player who scores 55-60 points a season every year is declining because he goes from 1st on the team to 5th without acknowledging that the 4 players who jumped him are all scoring at over a point per game.

Is RoR declining? It could be very well the case. and i won't deny that as a possibility.

But, there's also something rotten in the Blues locker room. There's only 3 players that look anywhere close to themselves from last year (Kyrou, Thomas, and Buchnevich).

As I said, I included raw production numbers as well. And LOL at ROR declining being "a possibility", he's declining, period. If the STL GM tries to argue in trade talks that he's not declining, he'll be laughed out of the league (kind of like I'm LOLing at your post as we speak).

The leafs kicked the avs ass last night, it doesn't matter they are too top heavy, avs are getting there themselves. That performance a 6-2 win in Denver on New Years Eve, yeah Marner was sensational, Matthews legit and counted; but let's be honest that's not going to happen in the playoffs (I'll take the jin, love to see the Mapeys win the Cup now). They are f***ed by two things Dubas, and.... COVID, flat cap has f***ed a lot of top teams, of course it's gonna f*** the team that already f***ed itself before COVID.

Watch them win the cup now*

*hahaha

Well thought out and intelligently phrased POV. Thanks for your contribution.

 

[Habs Halifax]

ROR out with a broken foot....curious how significant and whether it will have any effect on the deadline.

Depends on... How long will he be out and how many games will he play when he is back before the deadline?

A broken foot can't be good. Habs are dealing with a similar situation with Monahan. They have to return and show their value before teams trade valuable futures for them at the deadline. Otherwise, if they are still hurt, their value drops a lot.

4-6 weeks normally but up to 12 if it's bad. You'd think it would have some impact in value as a rental. There's a real chance he doesn't get back to 100% this year. And to that point depending on the severity might not be the rental top teams want this year.

I'm pretty sure teams will want to see him play games again before the deadline. If not, the trade value goes way down because the supply/demand won't be there. Pretty sure the Leafs and other teams offer a 4th or 5th rounder in that case. Maybe someone offers a 3rd if there are still a few teams lurking around to see if they can get lucky

 

[Auston Marlander]

Or he'll be well rested and ready to go on a long playoff run...

Possibly. That's the risk, you don't know what you have until it's too late. The human body isn't a car, where you break a part and replace with something brand new. Some major injuries have zero long term effects, while other seemingly small things linger for years.

An example from a non-professional hockey player.

- I tore my MCL and messed upy meniscus 7 years ago. 1 year later I was good as new.
- 1 year ago I fell into the boards and had a grade 2 strain of my AC (left shoulder). Too this day some movementa put me down to my knee, 10/10 pain for an instant from just a minor movement.

Now obviously an NHL player has a full team getting them back to game shape, but you just never know. Is it worth the risk for leadership? Maybe, maybe not. Depends on the asking price.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

ROR out with a broken foot....curious how significant and whether it will have any effect on the deadline.

4-6 weeks puts him out until early-mid February so it could impact his value some but the deadline is in March he there should still be a Market for him.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Supposedly Tarasenko is hurt too, so that's both their big trade chips.

I'm sure that will have SOME impact on their value but as long as they are back for the playoffs I don't think it kills their market, because while you want them for some regular season games so they can build chemistry with the team, the reason get them is for the playoffs.

As long as they are back by playoff time I think there will be a market.

It might not be as strong, you might not get quite as much but it will be there.

 

[stl76]

He's playing less than 19 minutes a game for the first time in about a decade and his numbers have been steadily declining for years. But yeah, we should look at his luck.

If you don't want to look at the context around ROR's numbers, that's fine.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you don't want to look at the context around ROR's numbers, that's fine.

He's on his way to his worst season production wise in about a decade, and he's not able to handle the minutes he used to. All I'm saying is that he doesn't seem to be anywhere near the player he once was, feel free to add any context you'd like. If there's something in these stats you think is relevant then feel free to point it out but saying "look at this, look at that" (bolded below is your earlier post) isn't adding context, it's just obfuscating.

Now look at his usage. Look at his shTOI, dZS%, 5v5 QoC, 5v5 QoT, etc.

Then look at his luck. Check his 5v5 oiSH%, 5v5 oiSV%, PDO, etc.

Then look at his performance in the playoffs.

 

[PocketNines]

He's on his way to his worst season production wise in about a decade, and he's not able to handle the minutes he used to. All I'm saying is that he doesn't seem to be anywhere near the player he once was, feel free to add any context you'd like. If there's something in these stats you think is relevant then feel free to point it out but saying "look at this, look at that" (bolded below is your earlier post) isn't adding context, it's just obfuscating.

Now look at his usage. Look at his shTOI, dZS%, 5v5 QoC, 5v5 QoT, etc.

Then look at his luck. Check his 5v5 oiSH%, 5v5 oiSV%, PDO, etc.

Then look at his performance in the playoffs.

The underlying dispute is what return he will fetch at the deadline. You haven't come close to establishing a case that he won't be worth a 1st+. He was a beast in the playoffs 8 months ago and has a very solid chance at being an ideal deadline addition this year.

It's valid for you individually to say "I personally wouldn't take the risk as it seems like he is done contributing to an NHL team's success" but you haven't even attempted to suggest that NHL GMs will view him this way, particularly given his lack of trade protection, almost zero real dollars due, 50% retention and cap expiring dump back if needed. Numerous other contextual factors involving the rest of the Blues are clearly in play. Your refusal to acknowledge them is simply a run of the mill message board tactic, but teams scouting for the deadline are capable of sorting out the context. In fact they are practiced at it since most teams that sell have dysfunction of some type. They are not trapped in a back and forth debate dynamic, they are just looking at the player and the surrounding context.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The underlying dispute is what return he will fetch at the deadline. You haven't come close to establishing a case that he won't be worth a 1st+. He was a beast in the playoffs 8 months ago and has a very solid chance at being an ideal deadline addition this year.

It's valid for you individually to say "I personally wouldn't take the risk as it seems like he is done contributing to an NHL team's success" but you haven't even attempted to suggest that NHL GMs will view him this way, particularly given his lack of trade protection, almost zero real dollars due, 50% retention and cap expiring dump back if needed. Numerous other contextual factors involving the rest of the Blues are clearly in play. Your refusal to acknowledge them is simply a run of the mill message board tactic, but teams scouting for the deadline are capable of sorting out the context. In fact they are practiced at it since most teams that sell have dysfunction of some type. They are not trapped in a back and forth debate dynamic, they are just looking at the player and the surrounding context.

1st bolded:
I guess it's fair to say that he's worth whatever someone will pay, I said some team will probably pay a 1st for him and I'm pretty sure I haven't said that some team won't pay more. If I had to guess, I'd say that if he comes back and seems healthy and ready to contribute he'll fetch a 1st plus a prospect (not a grade A prospect) but no more than that. As far as acknowledging "contextual factors involving the rest of the Blues", I did see someone say that all the Blues suck this season (paraphrasing) but I'm not sure that does much, if anything, to increase his trade value.

2nd bolded:
I never said that either. Of course he can contribute, the question is how much. If for arguments sake the price to pay for ROR was a 2nd round pick, I'd do that without hesitation, I'd even be willing to pay more. If I thought he "is done contributing", I wouldn't give up anything for him, that just makes no sense. He's still a good player and I would love to add him even though it's pretty obvious he's a couple of tiers below the player he once was. I'd just rather not pay a 1st for him because this is supposed to be a strong draft and that 1st round pick is very valuable. That's just me though, if it was a 1st in the 2024 draft, that would be more tempting but even then I'm not sure I would do it.

 

[stl76]

He's on his way to his worst season production wise in about a decade, and he's not able to handle the minutes he used to. All I'm saying is that he doesn't seem to be anywhere near the player he once was, feel free to add any context you'd like. If there's something in these stats you think is relevant then feel free to point it out but saying "look at this, look at that" (bolded below is your earlier post) isn't adding context, it's just obfuscating.

Now look at his usage. Look at his shTOI, dZS%, 5v5 QoC, 5v5 QoT, etc.

Then look at his luck. Check his 5v5 oiSH%, 5v5 oiSV%, PDO, etc.

Then look at his performance in the playoffs.

He has some of the most difficult usage of any forward in the NHL. Leads all Blues (forwards and D) in shTOI per game, 60% dzone start %, high QoC matching up against the opponents top scoring lines and pretty low QoT given his wingers have been a rotating cast of mostly bottom 6ers.

He has had some of the worst luck this season I have ever seen. Unusually low oiSH% and oiSV%. Of the 503 NHL players who have played at least 300 5v5 minutes this season, ROR's PDO is the 6th lowest and his oiSV% is the 4th lowest.

His performance the past 4 playoffs speaks for itself. 49 points in 51 games (19 goals 30 assists), Conn Smythe, etc. But wait, he is clearly declining according to your expert analysis! 12 points in 12 games last playoffs.

ROR is a notoriously slow starter, and has not played up to his usual standard this year so far. However, he is still an extremely good player and particularly valuable in the playoffs. All this info is rather easy to look up. God forbid someone ask you to do your hw before spewing a bunch of nonsense about a player. Honestly, how many Blues games have you watched this year?

 

[PocketNines]

1st bolded:
I guess it's fair to say that he's worth whatever someone will pay, I said some team will probably pay a 1st for him and I'm pretty sure I haven't said that some team won't pay more. If I had to guess, I'd say that if he comes back and seems healthy and ready to contribute he'll fetch a 1st plus a prospect (not a grade A prospect) but no more than that. As far as acknowledging "contextual factors involving the rest of the Blues", I did see someone say that all the Blues suck this season (paraphrasing) but I'm not sure that does much, if anything, to increase his trade value.

2nd bolded:
I never said that either. Of course he can contribute, the question is how much. If for arguments sake the price to pay for ROR was a 2nd round pick, I'd do that without hesitation, I'd even be willing to pay more. If I thought he "is done contributing", I wouldn't give up anything for him, that just makes no sense. He's still a good player and I would love to add him even though it's pretty obvious he's a couple of tiers below the player he once was. I'd just rather not pay a 1st for him because this is supposed to be a strong draft and that 1st round pick is very valuable. That's just me though, if it was a 1st in the 2024 draft, that would be more tempting but even then I'm not sure I would do it.

And a big part of that answer is his playoff history. Eight months ago he threw down one of the most valuable performances in the playoffs. Your contention that such a player is no longer worth a 1st+ means you have an airtight case that he has fallen off a cliff. You state he isn't anywhere near the player he once was, he is multiple tiers below where he was eight months ago. That's a really unusual case; that rarely ever happens in sports. It's possible that it happens. But it provokes a deeper look and when you look at his heavy usage and competition it certainly implies the Blues still think he is the best player they have to play against such competition. That should cause you to question why Robert Thomas and others aren't stepping up and handling it, and the fact they can't and aren't should make you realize there's a lot of problems with the personnel on the Blues that goes far deeper than a slow start by a great player. To make an extraordinary claim that a player who was dominant in the postseason last postseason is no longer worth a 1st round pick+ in one of the easiest possible trade situations you have to really make a good case that teams will all assess ROR to be multiple tiers below what he was eight months ago. You haven't made that case.

 

[Jets]

All of this ROR value to the Leafs discussion is moot anyways.

Toronto has min salary players on LTIR just to make cap work, uses emergency call ups regularly to ice a full lineup, and is projected to have ~1M in cap space at the trade deadline. They aren’t making any big pickups.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He has some of the most difficult usage of any forward in the NHL. Leads all Blues (forwards and D) in shTOI per game, 60% dzone start %, high QoC matching up against the opponents top scoring lines and pretty low QoT given his wingers have been a rotating cast of mostly bottom 6ers.

He has had some of the worst luck this season I have ever seen. Unusually low oiSH% and oiSV%. Of the 503 NHL players who have played at least 300 5v5 minutes this season, ROR's PDO is the 6th lowest and his oiSV% is the 4th lowest.

His performance the past 4 playoffs speaks for itself. 49 points in 51 games (19 goals 30 assists), Conn Smythe, etc. But wait, he is clearly declining according to your expert analysis! 12 points in 12 games last playoffs.

ROR is a notoriously slow starter, and has not played up to his usual standard this year so far. However, he is still an extremely good player and particularly valuable in the playoffs. All this info is rather easy to look up. God forbid someone ask you to do your hw before spewing a bunch of nonsense about a player. Honestly, how many Blues games have you watched this year?

Those are some interesting numbers. My points are still valid though (and I did enough homework to make those points), yet some people are arguing the fact that he's a declining player which isn't really in dispute. His production is still way down despite your numbers and expecting him to be a PPG game player in the next playoffs seems optimistic to say the least.

I would add that you've gone to all this effort to post all these usage numbers but that does nothing to disprove my contention that he is declining - do you see why?

I'll help you out. Had you posted usage stats for this year AND years previous, and those numbers were substantially different this season then you could maybe argue that he's being used differently, so that's why his numbers are down. But you didn't do that, did you? To steal a phrase from you - god forbid you think things through before accusing me of spewing nonsense. Feel free to do your homework and show me differently but my guess is that ROR's usage this year is not very different than it it's been in years previous and if true, then the fact that his production is way down this season is likely due to the fact that he is declining, plain and simple.

And a big part of that answer is his playoff history. Eight months ago he threw down one of the most valuable performances in the playoffs. Your contention that such a player is no longer worth a 1st+ means you have an airtight case that he has fallen off a cliff. You state he isn't anywhere near the player he once was, he is multiple tiers below where he was eight months ago. That's a really unusual case; that rarely ever happens in sports. It's possible that it happens. But it provokes a deeper look and when you look at his heavy usage and competition it certainly implies the Blues still think he is the best player they have to play against such competition. That should cause you to question why Robert Thomas and others aren't stepping up and handling it, and the fact they can't and aren't should make you realize there's a lot of problems with the personnel on the Blues that goes far deeper than a slow start by a great player. To make an extraordinary claim that a player who was dominant in the postseason last postseason is no longer worth a 1st round pick+ in one of the easiest possible trade situations you have to really make a good case that teams will all assess ROR to be multiple tiers below what he was eight months ago. You haven't made that case.

I said in the post you quoted, that he would most likely fetch a 1st+. My gosh, what is the matter with you people? Don't you read posts before quoting and responding?

 

[bert]

I added his rank on his own team for added context and I included actual production in a post which you quoted earlier. I suggest you read more carefully before quoting and insulting people in the future, not doing so might make you look ... well, I'm not going to say it.

He's now on pace for 35 points this season, which would be his worst season in a very, very long time. You can argue the semantics about how best to describe his decline but the fact is that this is a player who's production is declining and to argue otherwise is ... well, I'm not going to say it.

ROR was once a great player but those days are over. He's still a good player, you'll probably find someone willing to pay a 1st for him. I think it's nuts to talk about getting Knies, or a 1st and a 2nd + a prospect like some people are dreaming about though, we'll see.

You are massively underrating Ryan O'Rielly and I am not a fan of the blues. But these posts are ridiculous.

 

[Stephen]

It's too late for the 2019 version of Ryan O'Reilly to come to Toronto and it's too soon for the 2023 UFA version of O'Reilly to come to Toronto.

 

[darrylsittler27]

It's too late for the 2019 version of Ryan O'Reilly to come to Toronto and it's too soon for the 2023 UFA version of O'Reilly to come to Toronto.

I don't see us overpaying for Rentals.

 

[Beauterham]

All of this ROR value to the Leafs discussion is moot anyways.

Toronto has min salary players on LTIR just to make cap work, uses emergency call ups regularly to ice a full lineup, and is projected to have ~1M in cap space at the trade deadline. They aren’t making any big pickups.

It's doable, Blues just have to retain 50% on O'Reilly's contract and have to take on Kerfoot's contract as a capdump. That's enough to fit him under the cap.

I don't see us overpaying for Rentals.

Not saying the Leafs are going to overpay for O'Reilly, but I actually do see the Leafs going all in on one or more rentals to be honest. Dubas is under an enormous pressure to get a good result in the playoffs and another first round exit will probably be his end as Leafs GM.

Also Matthews and Nylander are going to be UFA after next season, so if they want to resign them, they will have even bigger capissues than they have right now. Their window to win the Stanley cup could very well be either this or next season. They might HAVE to go all in.