Player Discussion Auston Matthews (Captain Edition)

[Sypher04]

If having surgery meant he wasn’t going to be available to us for the playoffs then arguably the right decision was made.

We can all see his shot especially is impaired, to the point where he’s barely using it, but overall he still is finding a way to be a difference maker in spite of it.

6 games played, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 14 hits, 11 blocks, 5 takeaways, 59.5% face-offs and that’s vs a Sens team that’s good on draws.

71% defensive zone faceoffs
76% shorthanded faceoffs
2nd in PK minutes for forward at 2:12/game (Mitch had 2:29/game)

80% of Matthews is still a damn good player. There are some real ridiculous posts in this thread on Thursday from some of you, but honestly what else is new.

Matthews and Marner together outscored the opposition like 11 to 1 in the series when on the ice (inclusive of powerplays) and yet someone of you still bitch and moan.

 

[Stephen]

If having surgery meant he wasn’t going to be available to us for the playoffs then arguably the right decision was made.

We can all see his shot especially is impaired, to the point where he’s barely using it, but overall he still is finding a way to be a difference maker in spite of it.

6 games played, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 14 hits, 11 blocks, 5 takeaways, 59.5% face-offs and that’s vs a Sens team that’s good on draws.

71% defensive zone faceoffs
76% shorthanded faceoffs
2nd in PK minutes for forward at 2:12/game (Mitch had 2:29/game)

80% of Matthews is still a damn good player. There are some real ridiculous posts in this thread on Thursday from some of you, but honestly what else is new.

Matthews and Marner together outscored the opposition like 11 to 1 in the series when on the ice (inclusive of powerplays) and yet someone of you still bitch and moan.

The injury-surgery timelines can only be guessed at but if he was struggling with something in September requiring surgery, which would have made him unavailable for April/May playoffs. That doesn’t make a lot of sense.

It also means when he’s next available to have that surgery, let’s say June, you think he’s going to be wiped out till January-February of ‘26?

And that kind of injury and recovery time is only reducing his capacity to 80%?

If the conclusion is this injury takes so long to fix that he was right not to fix it, but could do extracurriculars in the meantime, and but wasn’t that serious because look he’s not playing that badly at reduced capacity, but we can also point to injuries every time he plays poorly. I dunno, it’s just trying to cover too many bases for me to agree with.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If having surgery meant he wasn’t going to be available to us for the playoffs then arguably the right decision was made.

We can all see his shot especially is impaired, to the point where he’s barely using it, but overall he still is finding a way to be a difference maker in spite of it.

6 games played, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points, 14 hits, 11 blocks, 5 takeaways, 59.5% face-offs and that’s vs a Sens team that’s good on draws.

71% defensive zone faceoffs
76% shorthanded faceoffs
2nd in PK minutes for forward at 2:12/game (Mitch had 2:29/game)

80% of Matthews is still a damn good player. There are some real ridiculous posts in this thread on Thursday from some of you, but honestly what else is new.

Matthews and Marner together outscored the opposition like 11 to 1 in the series when on the ice (inclusive of powerplays) and yet someone of you still bitch and moan.

Considering that they were on the ice for all four goals against in game 5, I find the bolded a little hard to believe.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Matthews and Marner together outscored the opposition like 11 to 1 in the series when on the ice (inclusive of powerplays) and yet someone of you still bitch and moan.

Slight correction: According to NaturalStattrick, at 5on5, each were on the ice for 5 goals for and 1 goal against. At even strength (which includes 4on4, 3on3, etc.) they were on the ice for 5 goals for and 3 goals against. So by the numbers, yes, they outscored the Sens.

However, depending on how much you view the advanced analytics to look deeper into performance, a lot of that seemed to be a combination of good goaltending by the Leafs and poor goaltending by the Sens more than "dominance". Because in all the various For/Against categories, such as CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF, etc. they were somewhere in the break even range to below water range. For instance, at ES they outscored the Sens 5 to 3. But their xGF to xGA performance was actually 3.91 to 5.66 for Marner and 3.75 to 5.08 for Matthews.

So ultimately it comes down to whether you're more in the "I don't care how they do it, just the end results matter" camp or the "I'm glad it turned out well, but it's still cause for concern with a bit less puck luck" camp.

 

[Sypher04]

Slight correction: According to NaturalStattrick, at 5on5, each were on the ice for 5 goals for and 1 goal against. At even strength (which includes 4on4, 3on3, etc.) they were on the ice for 5 goals for and 3 goals against. So by the numbers, yes, they outscored the Sens.

However, depending on how much you view the advanced analytics to look deeper into performance, a lot of that seemed to be a combination of good goaltending by the Leafs and poor goaltending by the Sens more than "dominance". Because in all the various For/Against categories, such as CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF, etc. they were somewhere in the break even range to below water range. For instance, at ES they outscored the Sens 5 to 3. But their xGF to xGA performance was actually 3.91 to 5.66 for Marner and 3.75 to 5.08 for Matthews.

So ultimately it comes down to whether you're more in the "I don't care how they do it, just the end results matter" camp or the "I'm glad it turned out well, but it's still cause for concern with a bit less puck luck" camp.

I must have misheard what they said on the broadcast.

Expected goals however is a garbage stat

 

[Jojalu]

I think it’s the hip, which can cause muscle pain in the back.

Pretty positive Tim( from Tim and Sid) gave it away the other day.

As he was doing his morning show he said

"Matthews bad hand and all finds a way to make it 1-0).

Not sure if he slipped up and spilled the beans but you can easily find the video

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Pretty positive Tim( from Tim and Sid) gave it away the other day.

As he was doing his morning show he said

"Matthews bad hand and all finds a way to make it 1-0).

Not sure if he slipped up and spilled the beans but you can easily find the video

Clearly a reference to the shot block earlier in the game

 

[arso40]

Slight correction: According to NaturalStattrick, at 5on5, each were on the ice for 5 goals for and 1 goal against. At even strength (which includes 4on4, 3on3, etc.) they were on the ice for 5 goals for and 3 goals against. So by the numbers, yes, they outscored the Sens.

However, depending on how much you view the advanced analytics to look deeper into performance, a lot of that seemed to be a combination of good goaltending by the Leafs and poor goaltending by the Sens more than "dominance". Because in all the various For/Against categories, such as CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF, etc. they were somewhere in the break even range to below water range. For instance, at ES they outscored the Sens 5 to 3. But their xGF to xGA performance was actually 3.91 to 5.66 for Marner and 3.75 to 5.08 for Matthews.

So ultimately it comes down to whether you're more in the "I don't care how they do it, just the end results matter" camp or the "I'm glad it turned out well, but it's still cause for concern with a bit less puck luck" camp.

Then factor in the fact we’re not paying them to break even or be barely ahead not when they’re supposedly the clear cut two best players on the team playing with a hyman on steriods I expect more round 2 coming up

 

[Jojalu]

Clearly a reference to the shot block earlier in the game

That makes sense. I had forgotten about that

 

[sunstersun]

Arguably the only time Matthews has ever lived up to the billing as a top 3-5 player was when he was playing with Domi and Bertuzzi. Mediocre at best linemates producing at an elite rate.

 

[Stephen]

Matthews and Marner together outscored the opposition like 11 to 1 in the series when on the ice (inclusive of powerplays) and yet someone of you still bitch and moan.

On this point I’m going to have to push back hard and ask how you’re primarily watching these games. If it’s a remix of highlight reels, tuning in and out and a heavy diet of stats deep dives maybe I get it and you’re not razor focused on this and glued to the screen and up and down on every play and the emotional ups and downs aren’t a big part of how you enjoy the games.

On the numbers piece, Matthews was on the ice for 4 goals against in Game 5 of the second close out game, screening the goalie for one, setting up a PK short handed run on a completely unforced error, 2 empty net goals against and almost coughed up another one with a pizza up the middle while hitting the post late in the third. The game before that he his 5 man unit was out there for a big short handed goal against. So just in all situations he was out for 5 goals against in 2 close out games.

So I don’t know where 11 to 1 outscoring the Senators in the series comes from, but until we figure out the math here I don’t think you’ll be able to figure out the negative response to what was happening in the series.

 

[Sypher04]

On this point I’m going to have to push back hard and ask how you’re primarily watching these games. If it’s a remix of highlight reels, tuning in and out and a heavy diet of stats deep dives maybe I get it and you’re not razor focused on this and glued to the screen and up and down on every play and the emotional ups and downs aren’t a big part of how you enjoy the games.

On the numbers piece, Matthews was on the ice for 4 goals against in Game 5 of the second close out game, screening the goalie for one, setting up a PK short handed run on a completely unforced error, 2 empty net goals against and almost coughed up another one with a pizza up the middle while hitting the post late in the third. The game before that he his 5 man unit was out there for a big short handed goal against. So just in all situations he was out for 5 goals against in 2 close out games.

So I don’t know where 11 to 1 outscoring the Senators in the series comes from, but until we figure out the math here I don’t think you’ll be able to figure out the negative response to what was happening in the series.

I watched every minute of the series and nearly all of the regular season minus a couple games

As I already mentioned, it’s possible I misheard the stat during the game 6 broadcast.

Some degree of critique was fine - I did as well - some people get ridiculous about it though.

Matthews and everyone else for that matter were not good in game 5, I’m not disputing that. Overall though he had a good series, but we will need a lot more from everyone, Matthews included, to beat Florida.

 

[tuckerintensity]

For instance, at ES they outscored the Sens 5 to 3.

If you're going to "correct" the stats, get them right.

The Sens didn't get these two more goals at 4 on 4 or 3 on 3, they got them on an empty net. In any even strength situation that didn't have an empty net, 5-1.

Further, at 5 on 5 (so no empty net), both were more xG for than against. Matthews handily. If you take into account all strengths, both still have higher xG for than against (and the spread gets larger for both even with ENGs against).

If you take away the ENG, Matthews outscored the Sens 11-3, and Marner 11-4.

In short, don't believe everything that you breathe, you get a parking violation and maggot on your sleeve.

 

[thewave]

Matthews been a beast. Not scoring but holding down the fort for the weak efforts of Mitch.

 

[arso40]

On this point I’m going to have to push back hard and ask how you’re primarily watching these games. If it’s a remix of highlight reels, tuning in and out and a heavy diet of stats deep dives maybe I get it and you’re not razor focused on this and glued to the screen and up and down on every play and the emotional ups and downs aren’t a big part of how you enjoy the games.

On the numbers piece, Matthews was on the ice for 4 goals against in Game 5 of the second close out game, screening the goalie for one, setting up a PK short handed run on a completely unforced error, 2 empty net goals against and almost coughed up another one with a pizza up the middle while hitting the post late in the third. The game before that he his 5 man unit was out there for a big short handed goal against. So just in all situations he was out for 5 goals against in 2 close out games.

So I don’t know where 11 to 1 outscoring the Senators in the series comes from, but until we figure out the math here I don’t think you’ll be able to figure out the negative response to what was happening in the series.

Right not to mention they spent a good amount in their own zone against the stutzle line and even the pinto line I expect much better than their first round output in the second round

 

[arso40]

If you're going to "correct" the stats, get them right.

The Sens didn't get these two more goals at 4 on 4 or 3 on 3, they got them on an empty net. In any even strength situation that didn't have an empty net, 5-1.

Further, at 5 on 5 (so no empty net), both were more xG for than against. Matthews handily. If you take into account all strengths, both still have higher xG for than against (and the spread gets larger for both even with ENGs against).

If you take away the ENG, Matthews outscored the Sens 11-3, and Marner 11-4.

In short, don't believe everything that you breathe, you get a parking violation and maggot on your sleeve.

Is that including the power play? Cause it’s odd to takeaway being a man up at 6 on 5 but using pp when we’re up a man 5 on 4

 

[tuckerintensity]

Matthews and everyone else for that matter were not good in game 5, I’m not disputing that. Overall though he had a good series, but we will need a lot more from everyone, Matthews included, to beat Florida.

I'm agreeing with pretty much everything you say, this place is insane, but I will say, we were also nowhere near as bad as advertised in Game 5.

 

[Stephen]

I watched every minute of the series and nearly all of the regular season minus a couple games

As I already mentioned, it’s possible I misheard the stat during the game 6 broadcast.

Some degree of critique was fine - I did as well - some people get ridiculous about it though.

Matthews and everyone else for that matter were not good in game 5, I’m not disputing that. Overall though he had a good series, but we will need a lot more from everyone, Matthews included, to beat Florida.

Yeah I think overall they won the series and the way they closed it out eventually was a positive, but I don't think you can come out and criticize the emotional response in the moment as you guys are nuts because there were some serious lows in the latter half of that series deserving of heavy criticism.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Is that including the power play? Cause it’s odd to takeaway being a man up at 6 on 5 but using pp when we’re up a man 5 on 4

You can sort type (5 on 5, 4 on 4, 5 on 4, etc) or you can sort by all strengths and even strengths. When you sort by even, they include empty nets and skew the stats, which is what the poster in question did. If you sort by all, you get everything.

Either way, they were always more likely to score except when the net was empty or when they were shorthanded. That doesn't push the narrative though.

 

[IPS]

Yeah I think overall they won the series and the way they closed it out eventually was a positive, but I don't think you can come out and criticize the emotional response in the moment as you guys are nuts because there were some serious lows in the latter half of that series deserving of heavy criticism.

Just more of the same old gaslighting.

Some of us actually have a memory that goes past 2 days though unfortuantely.

 

[Stephen]

Just more of the same old gaslighting.

Some of us actually have a memory that goes past 2 days though unfortuantely.

I just want to keep the standards up on players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

That third period Mikko Rantanen had, 4 points and a hat trick to singlehandedly bring Dallas back from the brink of elimination to victory in Game 7? We may need that level of superstardom once or twice if you want to beat Florida, get to the ECF and beyond. This is what legends are actually made of and not quotable positive numbers generated in the Pinto/Amadio/Stutzle matchups.

 

[ACC1224]

I just want to keep the standards up on players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

That third period Mikko Rantanen had, 4 points and a hat trick to singlehandedly bring Dallas back from the brink of elimination to victory in Game 7? We may need that level of superstardom once or twice if you want to beat Florida, get to the ECF and beyond. This is what legends are actually made of and not quotable positive numbers generated in the Pinto/Amadio/Stutzle matchups.

If the standard’ is 3rd period hat tricks, that’s a pretty high bar. I’m sure the Stars would have been just as happy with the win even if 3 guys scored one goal each.

 

[tuckerintensity]

If the standard’ is 3rd period hat tricks, that’s a pretty high bar. I’m sure the Stars would have been just as happy with the win even if 3 guys scored one goal each.

This statistical gymnastics people are doing these days is crazy town. First of all, everyone in the damn world knows Rantanen is one of the best wingers in the league but everyone 'round here is pretending we don't know. Secondly, WTF is this "but look what he did in Game 7!" and/or "that third period!" Cool? We didn't need a Game 7, hell we were an inch from needing only 4, in large part to another one of the best wingers in the league who plays for us... but I guess we'd rather have been down in the third of Game 7 to see if he would've had four points.

Can you imagine the tone 'round here if Marner had a single assist after four games?

 

[Stephen]

If the standard’ is 3rd period hat tricks, that’s a pretty high bar. I’m sure the Stars would have been just as happy with the win even if 3 guys scored one goal each.

I’m not negotiating down any expectations here. In a winner take all you need special uplift from your best players. You don’t do the special things, you don’t win these games, you don’t get the championship and you don’t build the legacy. And you compare yourself against the guys who do special things.

 

[Antropovsky]

This statistical gymnastics people are doing these days is crazy town. First of all, everyone in the damn world knows Rantanen is one of the best wingers in the league but everyone 'round here is pretending we don't know. Secondly, WTF is this "but look what he did in Game 7!" and/or "that third period!" Cool? We didn't need a Game 7, hell we were an inch from needing only 4, in large part to another one of the best wingers in the league who plays for us... but I guess we'd rather have been down in the third of Game 7 to see if he would've had four points.

Can you imagine the tone 'round here if Marner had a single assist after four games?

So your asking the question, what would happen if Marner disappeared in games 1-4 instead of games 5-7?

The easy answer is Leafs would have many more series wins. If he could score in the playoffs like Rantanen and that would only magnify the amount of series wins.

BTW why are you over here n the Matthews thread comparing Rantanen to Marner? you posted this in the Marner thread:

Plenty of room on that Dallas bandwagon for you guys and ain't no one here going to miss you.

Looks like you have plenty more people to tell to go to Dallas and they won't be missed around here.