Value of: ROR to the Leafs at the deadline.

[BoHorvat 53]

I was once filming a public meeting during a state legislature session for work (legally) and the committee chair stopped the meeting and demanded I stop filming and I simply ignored the man because I knew the law. He could simply not believe I was not obeying him and he stopped the meeting to go get the capitol police (who explained the law to this clown). I never even considered stopping filming. One of the legislators walked over to me and congratulated me on holding my mud, that's where I heard it.


His underlying numbers are pretty good, the Blues are a mess, and he'll get a 1st+.

48% Corsi, 47% Fenwick (Both 9th best on the Blues amongst forwards who have played 100+ minutes), ROR's xGF% is 40.9% while with him off the ice it darts up very significantly to 47.7%, which is the 13th best differential amongst Blues forwards who have played 100+ minutes (out of 14 forwards). His underlying numbers are garbage and suggest that the Blues are much worse with him on the ice. To put into perspective just how horrible it is, the results he's putting up when he's on the ice in terms of xGF% would have the Blues as the 2nd worst team only ahead of the Ducks and behind the Coyotes. He's been ass, stop lying to yourself.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

48% Corsi, 47% Fenwick (Both 9th best on the Blues amongst forwards who have played 100+ minutes), ROR's xGF% is 40.9% while with him off the ice it darts up very significantly to 47.7%, which is the 13th best differential amongst Blues forwards who have played 100+ minutes (out of 14 forwards). His underlying numbers are garbage and suggest that the Blues are much worse with him on the ice. To put into perspective just how horrible it is, the results he's putting up when he's on the ice in terms of xGF% would have the Blues as the 2nd worst team only ahead of the Ducks and behind the Coyotes. He's been ass, stop lying to yourself.

He's on a pretty shitty team put him on a good team and watch what happens

 

[BoHorvat 53]

He's on a pretty shitty team put him on a good team and watch what happens

My argument for that is that the Blues are shitty in large part due to him shitting the bed the heaviest out of any of their forwards by far. For example, the only forwards on the Blues with a Corsi% below 50 are ROR, Jake Neighbours, Tyler Pitlick, Noel Acciari, Alexey Toropchenko, and Nathan Walker. Pretty much everyone else in their top-9 has a Corsi above 50%. The Blues have been a better team with him off the ice this year.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

My argument for that is that the Blues are shitty in large part due to him shitting the bed the heaviest out of any of their forwards by far. For example, the only forwards on the Blues with a Corsi% below 50 are ROR, Jake Neighbours, Tyler Pitlick, Noel Acciari, Alexey Toropchenko, and Nathan Walker. Pretty much everyone else in their top-9 has a Corsi above 50%. The Blues have been a better team with him off the ice this year.

I'm aware of his advanced stats, but let me ask you something, how much of that is impacted by Binner being dog shit?

Because for the most part he has sucked.

The Leafs are the #2 defensive team in the league and that's even with their goaltending struggling recently, although Murray was really good last night so maybe that's ending.

Put him on the Leafs watch what happens.

I'd take a former Selke winner, and playoff MVP

 

[BoHorvat 53]

I'm aware of his advanced stats, but let me ask you something, how much of that is impacted by Binner being dog shit?

Because for the most part he has sucked.

The Leafs are the #2 defensive team in the league and that's even with their goaltending struggling recently, although Murray was really good last night so maybe that's ending.

Put him on the Leafs watch what happens.

I'd take a former Selke winner, and playoff MVP

Corsi, fenwick, xGF%, xGA% have nothing to do with your goaltending/quality of it. It’s a good barometer to compare a player to the rest of his team and in this case, ROR has been ass relative to the rest of the team which is an accomplishment

 

[StlBill]

You do realize that Ryan O'Reilly being absolutely horrid this year is something we all know? Do people expect him to magically start playing good again and that he's mailing it in because he's on an average-to-bad team? Because the Blues are honestly in the position that they are in, in major part due to him being terrible. A lot of people had the Blues building off of last season and actually being good, so you can't even say that he's not trying because he's on a bad team or whatever the excuse is right now.

ROR is absolutely NOT worth more than Knies lol.

Such an animated response could only come from a delusional BC Canucks fan lol. If they trade Knies for ROR, they’re the favs to win the cup outside of Boston. The guy simply may put that already great team over the top. Armstrong is a shrewd trader, the Blues don’t need the Leaf’s 1st. However, he’ll take Knies (who plays with his last 1st round pick) for his captain.

 

[StlBill]

My argument for that is that the Blues are shitty in large part due to him shitting the bed the heaviest out of any of their forwards by far. For example, the only forwards on the Blues with a Corsi% below 50 are ROR, Jake Neighbours, Tyler Pitlick, Noel Acciari, Alexey Toropchenko, and Nathan Walker. Pretty much everyone else in their top-9 has a Corsi above 50%. The Blues have been a better team with him off the ice this year.

Ridiculous metrics. Our team has been garbage. Any time we need a face off or a kill, he’s out there. He’s been abused. His stats suck for sure, however you put this guy with Marner and Tavares holy shit, it’s not fair. f*** any defensive inefficiencies that team may have, not only does he help that, but shit they just get lethal

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Leafs hopefully will offer a 1st + 2nd + Good prospect for ROR. With that being said Knies is not on the table. If you can get another team to include a prospect as good or better then Knies then I advise you take it because that offer isn't coming from the Leafs.

 

[stl76]

48% Corsi, 47% Fenwick (Both 9th best on the Blues amongst forwards who have played 100+ minutes), ROR's xGF% is 40.9% while with him off the ice it darts up very significantly to 47.7%, which is the 13th best differential amongst Blues forwards who have played 100+ minutes (out of 14 forwards). His underlying numbers are garbage and suggest that the Blues are much worse with him on the ice. To put into perspective just how horrible it is, the results he's putting up when he's on the ice in terms of xGF% would have the Blues as the 2nd worst team only ahead of the Ducks and behind the Coyotes. He's been ass, stop lying to yourself.

Now look at his usage. Look at his shTOI, dZS%, 5v5 QoC, 5v5 QoT, etc.

Then look at his luck. Check his 5v5 oiSH%, 5v5 oiSV%, PDO, etc.

Then look at his performance in the playoffs.

That is, if you actually want to understand context.

 

[PocketNines]

48% Corsi, 47% Fenwick (Both 9th best on the Blues amongst forwards who have played 100+ minutes), ROR's xGF% is 40.9% while with him off the ice it darts up very significantly to 47.7%, which is the 13th best differential amongst Blues forwards who have played 100+ minutes (out of 14 forwards). His underlying numbers are garbage and suggest that the Blues are much worse with him on the ice. To put into perspective just how horrible it is, the results he's putting up when he's on the ice in terms of xGF% would have the Blues as the 2nd worst team only ahead of the Ducks and behind the Coyotes. He's been ass, stop lying to yourself.

To throw this up without usage is pretty sloppy. He's being used as a heavy workhorse against top competition. He's a previous Conn Smythe winner who also outperformed Nathan Mackinnon heads up eight months ago. He has zero trade protection and the Blues will retain 50% and take back salary. He will get a 1st+. How big the + is will be affected by the market, whether a team is planning on extending him vs. pure rental, etc.

 

[sxvnert]

People say Toronto needs a top 6 winger and they aren't wrong that's why if they went out and got Tank from the Blues you wouldn't see me complain one bit the thought of Tank with Matthews and Marner or Matthews and Nylander is something that would be fun to watch.

That being said if the Leafs are going to pay the big price for a Blue, as fun as Tank would be and make no mistake I would be all for it.

ROR kills 2 birds with 1 stone.

ROR could be the #2 center on the Leafs and it allow them to move Tavares to the wing and solve the wing issue.

It would allow the Leafs a ton of options.

They could run Tavares Matthews Marner

Or Tavares Matthews Nylander

Or Tavares ROR Marner

and then If you ever needed to you could always run a 3 headed monster of Matthews Tavares ROR down the middle should the situation call for It during a game.

I think ROR is the guy to target because it creates so many options.

ROR is the only player worth acquiring at the deadline for all the reasons yo mentioned above. Hopefully he would sign a short term 5m/yr, then lower the amounts as he ages.

 

[sxvnert]

would be a great pick up for alot of teams would have to start with Knies + or a 2023 1st +

Highly overrated anyways.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

would be a great pick up for alot of teams would have to start with Knies + or a 2023 1st +

I'm all for a 2023 1st+ anything not named Knies

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd take a former Selke winner, and playoff MVP

The bolded is the key - he ain't what he once was.

Such an animated response could only come from a delusional BC Canucks fan lol. If they trade Knies for ROR, they’re the favs to win the cup outside of Boston. The guy simply may put that already great team over the top. Armstrong is a shrewd trader, the Blues don’t need the Leaf’s 1st. However, he’ll take Knies (who plays with his last 1st round pick) for his captain.

I don't think there's any chance whatsoever of Dubas giving up Knies for ROR and the Leafs are one of the top favorites as it is now. The Leafs could win or not win the cup with or without ROR. In the cap era, even the biggest favourite has at best, maybe 15% chance to win it all. Even if ROR is better than his performance this season would seem to indicate, best case scenario is that he improves the Leafs chances from 11% to 12% or whatever. Some people don't understand this simple truth, they say things like "time to go all in" and so on but even most of them wouldn't be willing to part with Knies. Some people probably would be willing to give up a 1st in this years super strong draft, I'm not one of them.

Based on reputation and the hopes that he can play better than he has so far this season, some team probably will be willing to part with a 1st round pick, I just hope it's not the Leafs.

Leafs hopefully will offer a 1st + 2nd + Good prospect for ROR. With that being said Knies is not on the table. If you can get another team to include a prospect as good or better then Knies then I advise you take it because that offer isn't coming from the Leafs.

I really hope not. And I doubt it. This is very similar to the package the Leafs gave up for Muzzin and IIRC, Muzzin was under contract for two playoff more runs at the time, not just one as is the case with ROR and there were also no questions about his level of play dropping off big time, as is the case with ROR.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Now look at his usage. Look at his shTOI, dZS%, 5v5 QoC, 5v5 QoT, etc.

Then look at his luck. Check his 5v5 oiSH%, 5v5 oiSV%, PDO, etc.

Then look at his performance in the playoffs.

That is, if you actually want to understand context.

He's playing less than 19 minutes a game for the first time in about a decade and his numbers have been steadily declining for years. But yeah, we should look at his luck.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He's playing less than 19 minutes a game for the first time in about a decade and his numbers have been steadily declining for years. But yeah, we should look at his luck.

Find me anyone in history where a 91.3 PDO was indicative of an actual sustainable decline? During 5v5 his xGF% is 48.95, 4th among our forwards. And what's this steady decline nonsense. He was near the top in a lot of the Selke metrics last season and finished 4th, and ended the year being arguably our best player in the playoffs. Not sure what your argument would be from his offensive side for a multi season/year decline. Should you give him a massive contract extension? No, just like you shouldn't for any other guy that's about to turn 32, but he hasn't been declining for years.

The big thing with O'Reilly is having the correct linemates. Put a Kyrou or Tarasenko on his line, and it'll be a disaster. Have guys like Perron, Saad, Buchnevich, Schenn, Schwartz, etc., even scrubs like Leivo or Sanford, and he'll excel. He wants guys that play as a group, good on possession/cycle, good in the corners, and someone that is a finisher in that group.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Find me anyone in history where a 91.3 PDO was indicative of an actual sustainable decline? During 5v5 his xGF% is 48.95, 4th among our forwards. And what's this steady decline nonsense. He was near the top in a lot of the Selke metrics last season and finished 4th, and ended the year being arguably our best player in the playoffs. Not sure what your argument would be from his offensive side for a multi season/year decline. Should you give him a massive contract extension? No, just like you shouldn't for any other guy that's about to turn 32, but he hasn't been declining for years.

The big thing with O'Reilly is having the correct linemates. Put a Kyrou or Tarasenko on his line, and it'll be a disaster. Have guys like Perron, Saad, Buchnevich, Schenn, Schwartz, etc., even scrubs like Leivo or Sanford, and he'll excel. He wants guys that play as a group, good on possession/cycle, good in the corners, and someone that is a finisher in that group.

His production over the last 4-5 years has been steadily declining, I can't imagine how anyone could possibly argue that point.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The bolded is the key - he ain't what he once was.

I don't think there's any chance whatsoever of Dubas giving up Knies for ROR and the Leafs are one of the top favorites as it is now. The Leafs could win or not win the cup with or without ROR. In the cap era, even the biggest favourite has at best, maybe 15% chance to win it all. Even if ROR is better than his performance this season would seem to indicate, best case scenario is that he improves the Leafs chances from 11% to 12% or whatever. Some people don't understand this simple truth, they say things like "time to go all in" and so on but even most of them wouldn't be willing to part with Knies. Some people probably would be willing to give up a 1st in this years super strong draft, I'm not one of them.

Based on reputation and the hopes that he can play better than he has so far this season, some team probably will be willing to part with a 1st round pick, I just hope it's not the Leafs.


I really hope not. And I doubt it. This is very similar to the package the Leafs gave up for Muzzin and IIRC, Muzzin was under contract for two playoff more runs at the time, not just one as is the case with ROR and there were also no questions about his level of play dropping off big time, as is the case with ROR.

Why are you so afraid to move a 1st round pick? Is it because Foligno didn't work out? Look the fact is this team needs a top 6 forward and a 1st round pick might need to be sacrificed to get that.

Unless you can get Tyler Bertuzzi he might get less but he's hurt and you probably don't want that either.

So if you don't want that a 1st round pick probably needs to be sacrificed

 

[bleedblue1223]

His production over the last 4-5 years has been steadily declining, I can't imagine how anyone could possibly argue that point.

This is his 5th season with the Blues, and besides this one have basically been the best years of his career. What are you even talking about. He had his highest career ppg pace in 20/21.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why are you so afraid to move a 1st round pick? Is it because Foligno didn't work out? Look the fact is this team needs a top 6 forward and a 1st round pick might need to be sacrificed to get that.

Unless you can get Tyler Bertuzzi he might get less but he's hurt and you probably don't want that either.

So if you don't want that a 1st round pick probably needs to be sacrificed

Not so black and white. This team can win the cup as it stands now, if you don't think that's possible without adding a top 6 forward, then agree to disagree. How we do in the playoffs will mostly depend on if our goalies keep playing well and if the rest of the guys play the way they can. Someone like ROR would help but it's not like we can only win by adding someone like him and we have no shot if we don't.

I have no objection to moving a 1st round pick, not for a rental though.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is his 5th season with the Blues, and besides this one have basically been the best years of his career. What are you even talking about. He had his highest career ppg pace in 20/21.

Below are his numbers for this season, and the last three seasons. I said his production has been "steadily declining", the numbers back that up so let me ask you - what are you even talking about?

61 points in 71 games - 1st on the team
54 points in 56 games - 2nd on the team
58 points in 78 games - 7th on the team
15 points in 33 games - 37 point pace, tied for 8th on the team

 

[bleedblue1223]

Below are his numbers for this season, and the last three seasons. I said his production has been "steadily declining", the numbers back that up so let me ask you - what are you even talking about?

61 points in 71 games - 1st on the team
54 points in 56 games - 2nd on the team
58 points in 78 games - 7th on the team
15 points in 33 games - 37 point pace, tied for 8th on the team

A steady decline over 4-5 years, which were your words does not match reality. You can not want to pat for a rental or even want him, but at least use arguments that match reality.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Not so black and white. This team can win the cup as it stands now, if you don't think that's possible without adding a top 6 forward, then agree to disagree. How we do in the playoffs will mostly depend on if our goalies keep playing well and if the rest of the guys play the way they can. Someone like ROR would help but it's not like we can only win by adding someone like him and we have no shot if we don't.

I have no objection to moving a 1st round pick, not for a rental though.

I feel like they need 1 more piece up front and I would be very confident if a guy like ROR was checking Brayden Point, or Ovechkin, or Bergeron, whoever it happens to be.

I think the Leafs have lost in recent years for 2 reasons.

1 goaltending shit the bed, and that includes Andersen too.

2 they have needed 1 more scorer the previous 2 years prove that, they have literally fallen 1 goal short.

A ROR, or Bertuzzi, or Meier, or Tarasenko etc could be the difference.

 

[Gary Nylund]

A steady decline over 4-5 years, which were your words does not match reality. You can not want to pat for a rental or even want him, but at least use arguments that match reality.

From 1st on the team to 2nd on the team to 7th on the team to 8th on the team, seems like a steady decline to me.

 

[bleedblue1223]

From 1st on the team to 2nd on the team to 7th on the team to 8th on the team, seems like a steady decline to me.

That's not how we measure if someone is declining or not. Going from 61 in 71 to their career best point pace is not a decline....