You essentially listed all the exceptions. If you have
elite offensive numbers, you are usually a #1 defenseman, at the very least top pairing. Even Mike Green, who takes a regular beating here, is a top pairing Dman. 35ish points (MA Bergeron) isnt elite. Sheldon souray was a top pairing D-men in his prime years (64 point season and 53 point season). Like kaberle, he has since fell off.
Look at the defensemen below
#1 - Shea Weber
#2 - Zdeno Chara
#3 - Erik Karlsson
#4 - Alex Pietrangelo
#5 - Ryan Suter
#6 - Nicklas Lidstrom (retired)
#7 - Kris Letang
#8 - Drew Doughty
#9 - Duncan Keith
#10 - Keith Yandle
#11 - Dan Boyle
#12 - Alexander Edler
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1247437
Those are the top 12 defenseman in the league as voted by Hfboards. Elite Dmen. How many of them arent a surefire bet for 50+ points? Ryan suter and Zdeno Chara, but they are
the best two defensive d-men in the league and are sure bets for 45+ points.
Also look at our very own Dion. Back when he used to get 60 points, he had norris nominations. But now that he only gets 45 points, many dont even consider him a top pairing d-man, but a "good #3" (which I find funny). Interesting to note that Dion is better defensively now than he was at 22...
Second, very few defenseman who produce that many points are as terrible defensively as the defenseman you listed, thats why its such a short list. The chances of Schultz being that bad are very low (looking at history). Most defenseman of this calibre are able to use their IQ and skating to be at least OK defensively (two traits they usually possess when notching up elite point totals). Thats why, when looking at Schultz' AHL production, there is little risk in predicting that he will be a top d-men in the league.