Rielly Discussion Thread
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Donnie740
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- May 28, 2021
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You think Rielly will take less money to sign in Toronto because he feels sorry for Dubas and the countless salary cap screw ups he’s made?
keonsbitterness
Registered User
They had more leverage than Rielly will despite being RFAs.
No idea what he'll do.
Donnie740
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Exactly.
Dubas is regarded among agents as the WEAKEST contract negotiator in the league.
If anything, that’s going to encourage Team Rielly to eviscerate him like Marner and Matthews did.
keonsbitterness
Registered User
DarkKnight
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Interesting on 590 today they spent quite a bit of time arguing that Dubas needs to stop letting guys walk for free and perhaps you trade Reilly now because we can’t afford him. This was also assuming we lose Hyman for nothing. What a time to be a Leafs fan, our window barely ajar.
He's my favorite player and I'd love nothing more than to keep him but I'd be having a serious talk with him right now about what the AAV on his next deal looks like
Anything over 5.5-6M and I'd be out and would trade him this off-season
I'm tired of letting guys with value walk as UFA's for nothing but cap space and a pipe dream of a long playoff run
Anything over 5.5-6M and I'd be out and would trade him this off-season
I'm tired of letting guys with value walk as UFA's for nothing but cap space and a pipe dream of a long playoff run
DarkKnight
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The argument was decent, he’s not your first PP guy next year, Sandin is and he’s not great defensively. Morgs will command 7, if you stick with the big four and the cap isn’t moving next year either, it’s a tight squeeze to make changes. I bet they throw it around the room this off season, but that’s tough one.
I was playing with additions/subtraction this summer and it would definitely free up space. A lot depends on how you view Lilj and Sandin. You could always roll with something like
Muzzin - Holl
Brodie - Lilj
Sandin - Bogo
Hutton/Dermott
You'd need a little more security on the backend, so it may not save a ton in cap space, but every bit helps and recovering assets is a nice thought.
DarkKnight
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Sandin seems a lock, Lil needs a shot. If you can hold on to Dermott, there’s still depth if one of the kids fail.
I'm fine to move on from Dermott and sign another Hutton/Bogo level player. If he wants to come back he can, I just don't see his role being anything more than a 6th D you can't trust. Dermott will skate better than the other options, but you'll always be worried about the yips and footsteps
DarkKnight
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He’s pretty cheap and apart from one gaffe I thought he acquitted himself well in the playoffs. But we’d have options.
Donnie740
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If Dubas blows his wad this summer and gives the mediocre plugger Hyman $6m and then loses Rielly as a result, it’ll be INFINITELY worse than his decision to give Marner $10.5m.
hamzarocks
Registered User
5.5 is an insulting offer to be honest the type which makes a player ask for a trade right away. 6 is still to low for Rielly he hould be getting 7M imo as that's the type of player he is. 50-60 points, being capable of moving the puck out like no one else on the team, a solid defensive player at his best while poor at his worse and a guy who stpes up come playoffs.
I can see him/hope he takes 8 years 6.5 as that's going to be a steal to fair contract for 4 or 5 years atleast. But if it goes above 7M I'm with you and move him
If we are moving on from Hyman at 6x6 then 7x8 us the point for me for Rielly.
He is my favorite leaf of all time and probably favorite player ever but we don't have cap space and Dubas ain't doing the 4 forwards. We can't lose out again on such a quality asset.
Jvr, Bozak, Komo, Gardiner, Andersen, Hyman all being lost past 4 years for no return.
Trapper
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2013
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Remember all the discussions we had on this board about asset management. That’s how you keep a franchise sustainable.
It always comes back for you. People didn’t care at the time because it doesn’t bite you until later.
Much like cap contracts and depth.
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Trade him. Good player but overrated by the fanbase. Has and will always be bad defensively and he’s going command big money next summer so it’s better get some assets back now.
Last 5 seasons:
*42nd in games played for a defenseman.
*35th in TOI for a defenseman at 22:47
*29th in goals for a defenseman with 40
*Tied for 11th in assists for a defenseman with 173
*14th overall in total points for a defenseman
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 12th in points/60 even strength
*62nd in PP time/G with 2:09, 20th overall in PPP/60
*Tied for 60th games played for a defenseman in playoffs.
*24th in TOI at 25:09
*Tied for 24th in goals (with many who have played less games)
*26th in assists
*24th overall in total points (only Seth Jones has more points in less games, 1 less game, 1 more point)
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 26th in points/60 even strength (moves to 19th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)
*50th in PP time/G with 2:18, 18th overall in PPP/60 (moves to 11th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)
With all due respect to Rasmus Sandin, if anyone thinks that next year he's capable of replacing these numbers, they are delusional. 37 regular season games, 5 playoff games of experience do not a Morgan Rielly make. I like the player, but he's not Cale Makar.
Morgan Rielly is not the problem with our PP.
The two most commonly sited replacements for Rielly are (by my rough estimate of comments on these pages) Dougie Hamilton and Seth Jones. If we simply look at playoff numbers.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Player[/TD][TD]Born[/TD][TD]Games Played[/TD][TD]Goals[/TD][TD]Assists[/TD][TD]Points[/TD][TD]TOI[/TD][TD]P/60 All Situations[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Hamilton[/TD][TD]93[/TD][TD]34[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]22:37[/TD][TD]1.170[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rielly[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]19[/TD][TD]25:09[/TD][TD]1.416[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Jones[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]31[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]20[/TD][TD]29:52[/TD][TD]1.295[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Given that they play on different teams, which have differing styles of play, and rely on these players in different ways, I still don't think it hard to see these players as being quite comparable. Jones hits more (73) than Rielly or Hamilton (46 and 54 respectively). Hamilton leads in shots, followed by Jones - who has the highest shooting percentage at 6.5%, while Morgan trails at 4.7% and stakes the middle ground of shots taken - with PPP/60 seeing Jones in the lead with 4.956, followed by Rielly with 4.891 and Hamilton at 3.789.
Hamilton is an UFA. Jones and Rielly both have 1 yr left, Jones costing today 400K more and wanting out. Each is a gifted O player, each has warts when it comes to D, all three teams that employ these players relies on them heavily. They are going to get paid.
If Leaf fans wish to get a Hamilton or a Jones, I can accept that. But, I cannot see a huge difference in the contracts that any of these players receive were they to be signed by Dubas. The only wrinkle to this statement might be Rielly's tenure here and his willingness to accept a discount...what that might be I have no idea. Regardless, I cannot see see the dollars for any of them being available unless one of the big salaries is moved. One could suggest using all of Kessel's 1.2M to pay for any of them, but that leaves Hyman's next contract dangling in the wind. Would any of them accept a 750K raise, with Hyman's ticket moving up but 450K? I don't think so, Hyman is worth well north of the 2.7M he'd be left with, and while Rielly's 5.75M would see him being the highest paid D on the team, I think he'll require more. We can't rely on this type of scenario.
If there are other defensemen that can be acquired that will provide the same type of usage at less cost, please, I'd love to know about them. I suspect the cost to acquire them would be high (players and picks). I cannot see a way around the Cap issues unless we are willing to see a drop in the quality of our #1 defenseman. Tied for 50th overall at 5M/yr, Rielly has been one of the better values for a defensemen in the league. Even at 6.5M/year, which would see him tied at 22nd in salary, I like the value. But, I don't know where we get the money.
I am not attempting to single out Morgan Rielly as being an indispensable part of the team. But, we've seen the salary structure of this team demand compromise throughout the line-up. Unless the team has a card up it's sleeve that I cannot see, that structure has to change. We cannot afford Rielly, Hyman and 1 or 3 other players who augment the team in a positive way without freeing up money.
The Leafs (Dubas, for those who demand a name be attached) got screwed by Covid. It happened. I liked this team as constructed, but for whatever reason(s) they have failed. I do not see things improving under the current structure of salaries paid. One of Marner or Matthews, or both, needs to be moved. I will be very curious to see if the team determines the same.
*42nd in games played for a defenseman.
*35th in TOI for a defenseman at 22:47
*29th in goals for a defenseman with 40
*Tied for 11th in assists for a defenseman with 173
*14th overall in total points for a defenseman
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 12th in points/60 even strength
*62nd in PP time/G with 2:09, 20th overall in PPP/60
*Tied for 60th games played for a defenseman in playoffs.
*24th in TOI at 25:09
*Tied for 24th in goals (with many who have played less games)
*26th in assists
*24th overall in total points (only Seth Jones has more points in less games, 1 less game, 1 more point)
*16th overall for points/60 all situations, 26th in points/60 even strength (moves to 19th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)
*50th in PP time/G with 2:18, 18th overall in PPP/60 (moves to 11th overall if you exclude players who have played fewer games in the playoffs)
With all due respect to Rasmus Sandin, if anyone thinks that next year he's capable of replacing these numbers, they are delusional. 37 regular season games, 5 playoff games of experience do not a Morgan Rielly make. I like the player, but he's not Cale Makar.
Morgan Rielly is not the problem with our PP.
The two most commonly sited replacements for Rielly are (by my rough estimate of comments on these pages) Dougie Hamilton and Seth Jones. If we simply look at playoff numbers.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Player[/TD][TD]Born[/TD][TD]Games Played[/TD][TD]Goals[/TD][TD]Assists[/TD][TD]Points[/TD][TD]TOI[/TD][TD]P/60 All Situations[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Hamilton[/TD][TD]93[/TD][TD]34[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]22:37[/TD][TD]1.170[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rielly[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]32[/TD][TD]4[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]19[/TD][TD]25:09[/TD][TD]1.416[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Jones[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]31[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]20[/TD][TD]29:52[/TD][TD]1.295[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Given that they play on different teams, which have differing styles of play, and rely on these players in different ways, I still don't think it hard to see these players as being quite comparable. Jones hits more (73) than Rielly or Hamilton (46 and 54 respectively). Hamilton leads in shots, followed by Jones - who has the highest shooting percentage at 6.5%, while Morgan trails at 4.7% and stakes the middle ground of shots taken - with PPP/60 seeing Jones in the lead with 4.956, followed by Rielly with 4.891 and Hamilton at 3.789.
Hamilton is an UFA. Jones and Rielly both have 1 yr left, Jones costing today 400K more and wanting out. Each is a gifted O player, each has warts when it comes to D, all three teams that employ these players relies on them heavily. They are going to get paid.
If Leaf fans wish to get a Hamilton or a Jones, I can accept that. But, I cannot see a huge difference in the contracts that any of these players receive were they to be signed by Dubas. The only wrinkle to this statement might be Rielly's tenure here and his willingness to accept a discount...what that might be I have no idea. Regardless, I cannot see see the dollars for any of them being available unless one of the big salaries is moved. One could suggest using all of Kessel's 1.2M to pay for any of them, but that leaves Hyman's next contract dangling in the wind. Would any of them accept a 750K raise, with Hyman's ticket moving up but 450K? I don't think so, Hyman is worth well north of the 2.7M he'd be left with, and while Rielly's 5.75M would see him being the highest paid D on the team, I think he'll require more. We can't rely on this type of scenario.
If there are other defensemen that can be acquired that will provide the same type of usage at less cost, please, I'd love to know about them. I suspect the cost to acquire them would be high (players and picks). I cannot see a way around the Cap issues unless we are willing to see a drop in the quality of our #1 defenseman. Tied for 50th overall at 5M/yr, Rielly has been one of the better values for a defensemen in the league. Even at 6.5M/year, which would see him tied at 22nd in salary, I like the value. But, I don't know where we get the money.
I am not attempting to single out Morgan Rielly as being an indispensable part of the team. But, we've seen the salary structure of this team demand compromise throughout the line-up. Unless the team has a card up it's sleeve that I cannot see, that structure has to change. We cannot afford Rielly, Hyman and 1 or 3 other players who augment the team in a positive way without freeing up money.
The Leafs (Dubas, for those who demand a name be attached) got screwed by Covid. It happened. I liked this team as constructed, but for whatever reason(s) they have failed. I do not see things improving under the current structure of salaries paid. One of Marner or Matthews, or both, needs to be moved. I will be very curious to see if the team determines the same.
Donnie740
Registered User
- May 28, 2021
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Very well written assessment with excellent facts to support.
Agree 100% that Rielly/Hamilton/Jones are pretty much comparable in terms of performance. But when you factor in the likely salary of each, Rielly will be the best value.
Of the three, Jones will be the highest paid - - approaching $9m, potentially higher - - because of the narrative that he’s physically dominant at both ends. Hamilton will be slightly higher paid than Rielly because of the premium that’ll be put in his goal totals.
As I’ve explained numerous times, it’s absolutely IMPERATIVE for the Leafs to sign Rielly. While at the same time keeping The Big 4.
This is something that shouldn’t be very difficult to do - - even for a novice GM.
Freddie and his $5m are mercifully off the books. Campbell is the obvious #1 and you most certainly do not need to spend anything remotely close to $5m on a back up.
That creates at least $3m possibly $4m and it should only take $2m to $2.5m - - coupled with his existing $5m - - to get Rielly locked up.
Of course this will mean cutting ties with Zach Hyman but that’s a much easier replacement than finding a new #1D to replace Rielly.
Some poor sap is going to make a catastrophic mistake and foolishly give Hyman a long term deal at $5m to $6m per.
I’m desperately hoping it’s not Dubas.
I'd forgotten about Freddie A. Campbell is good value at his cost, and while I'd guess that a backup is going to run higher than Jack's ticket, it certainly will not approach Andersen's cost...50%?
Hypothetically:
*Rielly (or equivalent) gets the full 1.2M we save on Kessel, bringing him to 6.2M x ?...will more be required, do we eat into the Andersen savings if so?
*I like Zach, but would be very concerned about going more than 4 years, injuries are a concern to me. I'd prefer a 3 year deal, could see 4 but would top out at 4.5/ regardless. Too big a risk. I don't believe he will get better, might be able to maintain his valuable contributions, and will almost certainly see his production dropping as the end of either term comes to realization. See: Foligno, Nick.
*If a backup can be signed at 2.5M/ or less, how can the savings be distributed to acquire what is needed? 1.25M extra x 2 players? 800k x 3?
You suggest keeping the Big 4. I'm not sure I can support that. It isn't a case of me disliking any of them, I think they're all fine players. I've never understood the M v N debates that are a constant here. Both are talented, both have flaws, both are improving as young players do. I think both have room to grow into more complete players, and will do so. However, I also think that to realistically compete in the playoffs the wealth of talent needs to be spread more equally throughout a team. Take Marner's salary, and while not being able to get a return equal to him in a 1 for 1, can you parlay him into 2 players of lesser abilities who approach his contributions when added together while spread over two lines? Does this approach help the team? The same could be said for Matthews, only moreso. What would that return look like and how might it develop a deeper line-up? Again, to be clear, I like both players.
One last comment (thankfully?
) I'm curious to see how the Leafs proceed with Nylander. I wonder if his time has arrived to return to C? We all know about his consistency issues, but this year - at least to me - I saw stretches where his level of 'compete' was excellent, not just in the playoffs. I'm wondering if rewarding him for his excellent play against Montreal, as well as much of the season, inspires Willy? I 'think' there's more there than we've seen, but I also like the player and it could just be rose colored glasses time. If management 'thinks' the same, does this at all impact decisions that are to come?
DarkKnight
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It’s a growing list of players leaving for nothing and picks lost for little return. You’re right this isn’t sustainable and in some ways I wonder if we have peaked internally.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
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They either sign Rielly early or they trade him IMO. Hopefully they learned from dragging their feet in the past.
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Not necessarily. There is nothing forcing Rielly to stay here except wanting to be here. It's just as easy for Riels to throw Dubas' own history at him and remind him that he made things happen in the past to fit players at their imagined contract values.
And let's be honest, there is nothing on the market that will be any more affordable that will be a suitable replacement or upgrade for him. I honestly don't see how we get any better without dealing one of the big three.
Trapper
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- Nov 21, 2013
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Where are the next Connor Browns, Hyman, Kappys, (I wanted a D like Schneider last year we passed over) etc. They should be starting to fill those rolls.
We had no 1st in 2019, traded Kapanen to get our first back in 20 and no 1st in 21.
For all the Dubas drafting praise, Sandin/Robertson aren’t locks to become high end talent and what else is behind?
Again with committing half the cap to 4 forwards this becomes 3x as important.
Just another issue of Dubas salary allocation.
We were loaded with depth Kadri/Kap/Johnson/Bozak/JVR/Brown and now have none.
1st round picks out the door faster than you can say Brian Burke and the cap eaten up.
How are these guys still running the show?
