Rielly Discussion Thread

[JT AM da real deal]

Rielly is an amazing leader but not a GREAT offensive player due to IQ and hands issues .. and he is substandard defensively as he is not strong enough to withstand and deliver blows .. once his skating goes whoever has him will be in a BUYOUT situation .. to me he needs to be traded this summer for a big fast tough sizable defender OR centre who is younger and has lower CAP and a 2022 1st round pick ... if you can't get both then when team is out of da playoffs next year then trade to a contender for a 1st and 3rd in 2022

 

[Donnie740]

And let's be honest, there is nothing on the market that will be any more affordable that will be a suitable replacement or upgrade for him.

That’s correct.

I’m cringing at the thought of Dubas refusing to pay Rielly $7m then signing someone like Al Goligoski for $6m.

Can totally see a disaster like that unfolding.

 

[Kiwi]

5.5 is an insulting offer to be honest the type which makes a player ask for a trade right away. 6 is still to low for Rielly he hould be getting 7M imo as that's the type of player he is. 50-60 points, being capable of moving the puck out like no one else on the team, a solid defensive player at his best while poor at his worse and a guy who stpes up come playoffs.

I can see him/hope he takes 8 years 6.5 as that's going to be a steal to fair contract for 4 or 5 years atleast. But if it goes above 7M I'm with you and move him

If we are moving on from Hyman at 6x6 then 7x8 us the point for me for Rielly.

He is my favorite leaf of all time and probably favorite player ever but we don't have cap space and Dubas ain't doing the 4 forwards. We can't lose out again on such a quality asset.

Jvr, Bozak, Komo, Gardiner, Andersen, Hyman all being lost past 4 years for no return.

Sweet, then he's getting traded this off-season

 

[hamzarocks]

Sweet, then he's getting traded this off-season

If he's getting traded and we ajm to have Sandin+Muzzin replace his role then we won't be a playoff team barring a Hamilton signing

Leafs have terrible offensive defenseman and puck movers outside of rielly. If he's going we need a dumba or Hamilton being brought into the lineup to replace him

 

[Kiwi]

He's getting traded and we won't be a playoff team barring a Hamilton coming in

Leafs have terrible offensive defenseman and puck movers outside of rielly. If he's going we need a dumba or Hamilton being brought into the lineup to replace him

In a division with Tampa, Boston and Florida it's questionable we make the playoffs with Rielly and this team doesn't deserve the benefit of any doubt

Until the prove they are worth hurting the teams short to medium term future for I'm through giving up assets for no benefit for nothing

 

[Rare Jewel]

If he's getting traded and we ajm to have Sandin+Muzzin replace his role then we won't be a playoff team barring a Hamilton signing

Leafs have terrible offensive defenseman and puck movers outside of rielly. If he's going we need a dumba or Hamilton being brought into the lineup to replace him

I would agree on trading him. The other two players are more or less lateral moves. with Hamilton especially for quite a bit more money.

Rielly is still not some I'd be looking to move though. I would think that he's possibly the one guy that would take less to re-sign.

 

[Donnie740]

I'd forgotten about Freddie A. Campbell is good value at his cost, and while I'd guess that a backup is going to run higher than Jack's ticket, it certainly will not approach Andersen's cost...50%?

Hypothetically:
*Rielly (or equivalent) gets the full 1.2M we save on Kessel, bringing him to 6.2M x ?...will more be required, do we eat into the Andersen savings if so?
*I like Zach, but would be very concerned about going more than 4 years, injuries are a concern to me. I'd prefer a 3 year deal, could see 4 but would top out at 4.5/ regardless. Too big a risk. I don't believe he will get better, might be able to maintain his valuable contributions, and will almost certainly see his production dropping as the end of either term comes to realization. See: Foligno, Nick.
*If a backup can be signed at 2.5M/ or less, how can the savings be distributed to acquire what is needed? 1.25M extra x 2 players? 800k x 3?

You suggest keeping the Big 4. I'm not sure I can support that. It isn't a case of me disliking any of them, I think they're all fine players. I've never understood the M v N debates that are a constant here. Both are talented, both have flaws, both are improving as young players do. I think both have room to grow into more complete players, and will do so. However, I also think that to realistically compete in the playoffs the wealth of talent needs to be spread more equally throughout a team. Take Marner's salary, and while not being able to get a return equal to him in a 1 for 1, can you parlay him into 2 players of lesser abilities who approach his contributions when added together while spread over two lines? Does this approach help the team? The same could be said for Matthews, only moreso. What would that return look like and how might it develop a deeper line-up? Again, to be clear, I like both players.

One last comment (thankfully? ) I'm curious to see how the Leafs proceed with Nylander. I wonder if his time has arrived to return to C? We all know about his consistency issues, but this year - at least to me - I saw stretches where his level of 'compete' was excellent, not just in the playoffs. I'm wondering if rewarding him for his excellent play against Montreal, as well as much of the season, inspires Willy? I 'think' there's more there than we've seen, but I also like the player and it could just be rose colored glasses time. If management 'thinks' the same, does this at all impact decisions that are to come?

Great discussion!

I really don’t like the idea of paying a backup goalie much more than $1m and certainly not more than $2m.

Campbell is ridiculously underpaid as a starting goalie and it’s something the Leafs can use to their advantage next year.

Signing his backup for more money than he gets would be a slap in the face to Campbell and bad for team morale.

Given how mentally fragile he is and his acknowledged struggles with confidence, it’s going to be important to get a back up who understands the role. Kind of like a Glen Healy type - - not a threat for the starting job and will be supportive to the starter.

Regarding the big 4, there’s no possible chance of Tavares agreeing to a trade so he’s out of the question.

I’ve been critical of Nylander in the past, but he really stepped up and was by far the best Leaf in the playoffs. At $8m he’s actually a pretty decent value. So there’s nothing to be gained by trading him.

I’d be open to dealing Marner and/or Matthews if it brought back a legit top line player entering the prime of his career. As in Draisatl or the Tkachuk brothers.

But I have ZERO confidence in Dubas negotiating any trade that bring back equal value for either of them. Dealing Marner for a collection of failed prospects and past-their-prime veterans would be a crippling waste of assets.

I’d prefer to keep Marner but he desperately needs a coach who isn’t going to coddle him and cater to his fancy.

Example - - letting Marner play the point on the PP. That’s one of the most absurd things I’ve ever seen. He’s got BY FAR the weakest shot on the team.

Having a guy like that at the point defies logic. Particularly when Reilly’s strength on the PP is being a distributor. Great PP units have at least one point man with a cannon of a shot - - not a minor bantam level shot.

 

[The Apologist]

Sweet, then he's getting traded this off-season

Thank goodnessyoure not our gm then.
No way in hell does Rielly take less than Muzz nor should he.

 

[Kiwi]

Thank goodnessyoure not our gm then.
No way in hell does Rielly take less than Muzz nor should he.

I'm sorry, where in my post does it include a gun to his head forcing him to take our offer?

You people seem to be under the impression we can keep paying all these guys, like the cap isn't a thing

Unfortunately our GM couldn't get our RFA's on decent value contracts so guess what? Rielly a 7M is unacceptable in our cap situation so unless he takes a massive "hometown discount" it's time to make a decision on him

This is called reality

 

[The Apologist]

I'm sorry, where in my post does it include a gun to his head forcing him to take our offer?

You people seem to be under the impression we can keep paying all these guys, like the cap isn't a thing

Unfortunately our GM couldn't get our RFA's on decent value contracts so guess what? Rielly a 7M is unacceptable in our cap situation so unless he takes a massive "hometown discount" it's time to make a decision on him

This is called reality

No, 30m on three forwards is unacceptable in our cap situation. Losing our 1d on what would be a very reasonable 7m hit to pay Mitch, Auston and JT is a much bigger issue and one we will ultimately regret should it come to be.

 

[leafsgirl12]

Just read a story in the Star and it analyzed Rielly and Marner trades. Muzz has a NTC so doubt he is going anywhere.

Rielly has a modified no trade clause

 

[leafsgirl12]

Of all the players to blame for our loss in the playoffs, Rielly is not one of them. He was excellent.

If you like shots, he was on the ice for 94 shots for the Leafs and 42 against at 5on5. That's well over 2:1.
If you like expected goals, he was on the ice for 7.04 xGF at 5on5, and 2.94 xGA.
If you like actual goals, he was on the ice for 4 Leafs goals and 2 Habs goals at 5on5.
If you like scoring chances 72-40. If you like high danger chances he had 30-12.
If you like points he had a GWG and 2 assists.

Rielly averaged 25:48 per game in the playoffs and absolutely MANHANDLED the Habs by every conceivable metric you can think of.

Sure, he's not the best defensively. Sure, he's not very good on the point on the PP1. But every single thing we know about Morgan Rielly tells us that he's a very good defenseman and raises his game in the playoffs. Call 'em warts, call 'em flaws, call 'em whatever it is you like. They're the things that are going to keep his next contract somewhat reasonable. Keep Rielly because we're trying to be a winning team and he's not the reason we've been losing.

well said

 

[leafsgirl12]

Of all the players to blame for our loss in the playoffs, Rielly is not one of them. He was excellent.

If you like shots, he was on the ice for 94 shots for the Leafs and 42 against at 5on5. That's well over 2:1.
If you like expected goals, he was on the ice for 7.04 xGF at 5on5, and 2.94 xGA.
If you like actual goals, he was on the ice for 4 Leafs goals and 2 Habs goals at 5on5.
If you like scoring chances 72-40. If you like high danger chances he had 30-12.
If you like points he had a GWG and 2 assists.

Rielly averaged 25:48 per game in the playoffs and absolutely MANHANDLED the Habs by every conceivable metric you can think of.

Sure, he's not the best defensively. Sure, he's not very good on the point on the PP1. But every single thing we know about Morgan Rielly tells us that he's a very good defenseman and raises his game in the playoffs. Call 'em warts, call 'em flaws, call 'em whatever it is you like. They're the things that are going to keep his next contract somewhat reasonable. Keep Rielly because we're trying to be a winning team and he's not the reason we've been losing.

playoff wise marner and matthews not producing was a huge issue when it came to losing . Rielly played great other then a few minor mistakes.

 

[ToneDog]

Rielly has a modified no trade clause

10 team no trade list.

 

[Kiwi]

No, 30m on three forwards is unacceptable in our cap situation. Losing our 1d on what would be a very reasonable 7m hit to pay Mitch, Auston and JT is a much bigger issue and one we will ultimately regret should it come to be.

So we're suspending reality and pretending our GM didn't say he wants to keep the big 4 together?

I prefer using reality when I'm making off-season predictions or stating what I think should be done

 

[Donnie740]

So we're suspending reality and pretending our GM didn't say he wants to keep the big 4 together?

I prefer using reality when I'm making off-season predictions or stating what I think should be done

Paying Rielly $7m instead of wasting $6m for a mediocre plugger like Zach Hyman who consistently disappears in the playoffs would make the Leafs a MUCH better team.

 

[cannucky]

People need to look at the teams remaining and realize the fast wave your stick at the puck is losing to the hammer and pound heavy hitting style of play , that's playoff hockey and keeping the same type of players that have failed the past 4 years is a recipe for another failed playoff campaign .

 

[Donnie740]

People need to look at the teams remaining and realize the fast wave your stick at the puck is losing to the hammer and pound heavy hitting style of play , that's playoff hockey and keeping the same type of players that have failed the past 4 years is a recipe for another failed playoff campaign .

Dump and chase grind it out hockey is what wins in the playoffs. Always has, always will.

Not sure if the little stick boy GM or the NHL21 video game gang will ever come to this realization though.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Trade Reilly for a Kapanen like return. Top 12 pick potentially and good D propect. I would then flip that top 12 pick for a dman more like TJ brodie. Reilly is the most over rated player on the squad and is #3 behind Muzzin and Brodie. IT makes zero sense to pay him more than either, plus Reilly cant run a PP or be a difference maker in the playoffs.

 

[Boxscore]

If Morgan Rielly leaves for anything less than equal value, we are going to regret it. Rielly is an excellent player who has been miscast for years; constantly being asked to punch about his weight class. In fact, I'd argue that Rielly is so good, he often conceals how poor our defense corps has been over the years.

Rielly is our Sundin on D -- asked to do everything while getting little support. The solution is, as it's always been, to get ANOTHER top-pairing defenseman to help Rielly with the heavy-lifting so he doesn't have to shoulder the full burden. Adding another top D slots everyone else down in the roster, improving the entire D corps.

This year, our defense was better than it was in a while, with a healthy Muzzin and the acquisition of Brodie. Imagine if we added a Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Dougie Hamilton or Ivan Provorov -- it would have a trickle down effect on the entire D. I even think a Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm would help a lot, but they're not a Seth Jones.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Dump and chase grind it out hockey is what wins in the playoffs. Always has, always will.

Not sure if the little stick boy GM or the NHL21 video game gang will ever come to this realization though.

You know, other than Tampa, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago. You have to be able to dump and chase but teams that rely on that as their main plan don't win that often for the past decade+.

 

[Guy Boucher]

If they really are keeping Marner, then I think there is no chance Rielly stays.

Personally, I think it makes sense to trade Rielly. He was great in the playoffs, but he wasn't great most of the season. He's weak defensively and likely looked better in the playoffs because the Habs aren't a team with great offensive weapons.

I would trade Rielly, give his minutes to Dermott/Sandin and try to upgrade on Holl.

 

[cannucky]

You know, other than Tampa, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago. You have to be able to dump and chase but teams that rely on that as their main plan don't win that often for the past decade+.

Did you watch the Islanders -Bruins series or the Tampa-Florida ? The Islanders put out a how to video last night that every GM is watching , get pucks deep and grind the forecheck .

 

[cannucky]

If Morgan Rielly leaves for anything less than equal value, we are going to regret it. Rielly is an excellent player who has been miscast for years; constantly being asked to punch about his weight class. In fact, I'd argue that Rielly is so good, he often conceals how poor our defense corps has been over the years.

Rielly is our Sundin on D -- asked to do everything while getting little support. The solution is, as it's always been, to get ANOTHER top-pairing defenseman to help Rielly with the heavy-lifting so he doesn't have to shoulder the full burden. Adding another top D slots everyone else down in the roster, improving the entire D corps.

This year, our defense was better than it was in a while, with a healthy Muzzin and the acquisition of Brodie. Imagine if we added a Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Dougie Hamilton or Ivan Provorov -- it would have a trickle down effect on the entire D. I even think a Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm would help a lot, but they're not a Seth Jones.

We've made your excuses and applied your solution every year since we started with Reilly and every year guys like you scape goat the players around him for his glaring failures as a D man , enough with the gobbling already it's time to move on to the D formula that works .

 

[Boxscore]

it's time to move on to the D formula that works .

In order to have a winning D formula, don't you need superior defensemen? Rielly is the best we have and we need MORE, not less.