Salary Cap: RFA Marner - Silence until solution to the matter one way or the other

[Bomber0104]

you keep thinking you are right here? so strange. When he doesn't get higher how does you narrative here work?.

Here is an example
Dubas "$11m x 7"
marner: "$14x7?" NO
marner: $13x7?" No
marner: $12.9x7" no

you understand that he can say $11x7 is as high as he is willing to go and wont budge right? or you believe Dubas is now obliged to only offer up from there?

Hence the standoff between the two parties since June, clearly.

You guys are really struggling with this.

 

[Albert Iafrate]

Can someone clarify something...IF Marner sits the whole season, how much cap space will we have to improve the team with a rental going forward? Can we still use the LTIR cap space if Marner sits?

 

[ToneDog]

If that's the base he's negotiating from, he's not getting a contract. At least not from the Leafs.

Shorter term lowers the AAV from 11, the same way it did for Matty who at 13.8+ for 8.

 

[Bomber0104]

marner doesn't want a long term deal.

So the floor on a long term deal is 11, he wants 3 years.

Yep.

Clearly an 11 x 3 deal is far better for Marner than an 11 x 7.

Hence the standoff right now.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Shorter term lowers the AAV from 11, the same way it did for Matty who at 13.8+ for 8.

I understand, but I have no reason to believe Marner's stance is going to be any more reasonable on a shorter term deal either.

 

[ToneDog]

Hence the standoff between the two parties since June, clearly.

You guys are really struggling with this.

IMO 11 is the max AAV for 7 or 8 year deals. Tough for Dubas to go higher but he can lower the AAV with a shorter term, which is what Marner is standing firm on (I believe).

 

[Nineteen67]

I'm not in the room with them but fortunately we have common sense available (some of us anyway) and that would dictate that the reason Marner turned down the 11 x 7 offer is because they think they can do even better....

Hence that's the base they're negotiating with Dubas from.

If you can't understand that, God help you.

He turned down the term, and I fully agree with that strategy because it’s worth the risk of waiting to see what the cap is after the new CBA.

That leaves them with a bridge as the only option. A 15 million 3rd year is ridiculous.

 

[ToneDog]

I understand, but I have no reason to believe Marner's stance is going to be any more reasonable on a shorter term deal either.

No doubt. Hence the Friedman rumour that he wants to be set up with a 12-15M QO in year 4 on a 3 year deal.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yep.

Clearly an 11 x 3 deal is far better for Marner than an 11 x 7.

Hence the standoff right now.

He said 11 on a long term deal. 11 is not on the table for three years, and Marner is never going to get it on three years.

Dubas could agree to literally every single thing Marner believes about himself and 11x3 would still be a massive overpayment. I don't think Marner is that delusional.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

No doubt. Hence the Friedman rumour that he wants to be set up with a 12-15M QO in year 4 on a 3 year deal.

Hence the standoff.

 

[Alerion]

Yep.

Clearly an 11 x 3 deal is far better for Marner than an 11 x 7.

Hence the standoff right now.

You seem to be under the assumption that the 11x7 deal from July is in Marner's back pocket, and he can fall back on it whenever he wants if Dubas doesn't go higher. There's nothing to suggest that offer is still on the table, especially considering the Leafs are tighter to the cap now than in early July.

 

[Nineteen67]

Maybe some team will give him that in November?

Maybe

 

[KPower]

It’s gonna be 5x11 or

3x10 with $12 Million in year 3 as QO.

Term is the hill Marner’s camp is willing to die on.

Personally I’d let let them die on that hill, all 3 of them.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You seem to be under the assumption that the 11x7 deal from July is in Marner's back pocket, and he can fall back on it whenever he wants if Dubas doesn't go higher. There's nothing to suggest that offer is still on the table, especially considering the Leafs are tighter to the cap now than in early July.

Or that if it is on the table, Dubas would ever budge from it.

 

[Nineteen67]

Why would it go any smoother in 3 years then it has this time ?

Well, things do change in life. Like I said if it doesn’t look promising they can trade him.

 

[kb]

Or that if it is on the table, Dubas would ever budge from it.

He can't budge without performing major roster surgery.

 

[Alerion]

It’s gonna be 5x11 or

3x10 with $12 Million in year 3 as QO.

Term is the hill Marner’s camp is willing to die on.

Personally I’d let let them die on that hill, all 3 of them.

Why would Toronto give short term, high AAV, and a high QO? That's conceding on every aspect of the negotiating.

 

[Nineteen67]

I do not think Marner accepts 11x8. He probably accepts 11x5 or 6 which is nuts for the Leafs.

Apparently the Leafs won’t give 5 yrs and the Leafs don’t have the room this year to give him what he wants on 6-8 yr deal.
Seems way too simple to me. I’ve had tougher real estate deals.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

At this point I wonder if Marner and his people have sat down and looked at all the costs involved with a continued hold out.

They're probably within $1 million per year and a year of term from an agreement. At the end of the day, Marner has already won based on what I've heard that the Leafs have offered him. By continuing to hold out, his once stellar public image continues to take a beating. The possibility of reduced endorsement earnings is a real possibility. That possible amount of reduced off ice earnings may exceed what he'd gain from a complete win in the Leafs contract negotiations.

I was a Marner fan. Think he's a great kid. My gut tells me that daddy and Ferris are pushing the envelope on this and not him. But he's the one whose image is going to take the long term hit. He was idolized by many in Toronto and around the league prior to this contract impasse. He won't be held in as high esteem by as many no matter when the situation is resolved now.

It's really a shame when the egos of people get so out of control that they feel slighted because another player might be making a few more bucks even though he might be as good as that player. A 21 year old being offered over $100 million Cdn and who feels put upon probably has lost all perspective about how fortunate he is.

I hope Marner and his camp pull their heads out of their derrieres before the PR damage has a long term impact.

Great post. I would add that Mitchy needs a talking to by someone neutral that he trusts (e.g. an older player who'd been thru it) that can speak frankly to him and ask him what HE wants. Not what his Dad wants, not what his agent wants. He needs it explained to him that the ramifications of his decisions will affect HIM the most, and in the end he'll be the one that has to live with said ramifications.

 

[ULF_55]

Yep.

Clearly an 11 x 3 deal is far better for Marner than an 11 x 7.

Hence the standoff right now.

Obviously, it is better for him.

He isn't worth that.

That's the reason for the standoff.

 

[Bomber0104]

Why would Toronto give short term, high AAV, and a high QO? That's conceding on every aspect of the negotiating.

That would be par for the course with Dubas.

 

[KPower]

Why would Toronto give short term, high AAV, and a high QO? That's conceding on every aspect of the negotiating.

Because I believe that’s what it’s going to take to get him signed.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Well, things do change in life. Like I said if it doesn’t look promising they can trade him.

Yeah, that's true enough.

 

[Mess]

Or....

Panarin 11.64 x 8

Marner 11 x 8

Seguin 9.85 x 8
Stone 9.5 x 8
Benn 9.5 x 8

See when you purposely leave out context you can make anything true.

Context as I see it in the order in which events happened.

3rd: Panarin ....@$11.642 mil X 7 ................(= using JT UFA floor and Matthews new ceiling to leapfrog both to become 2nd highest AAV now bumping them down a spot each)
2nd: Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5 ............(= highest RFA signing on term in salary cap world)
1st: Tavares @ $11 mil X 7 ..............................(= highest UFA signing in salary cap world)

Now Marner after having his teammates JT and AM set new market levels for both UFA and RFA signed players, and seeing Panarin use those strategically and leapfrog all sitting #2, #3, and #4 highest paid players in the game behind only McDavid, that has become the new ceiling.

It appears that Marner is now using Panarin as his new ceiling to help draw his new contract to as close to Matthews as possible and wants to join them all in the Top 5 highest AAV players with the sweet spot right between his teammates Tavares and Matthews as his landing spot, which is what I posted in my previous post. .

Marner's new floor = Tavares and his new ceiling = Panarin expected to land somewhere in-between.

PS. I'm okay with you using Panarin as opposed to Matthews as Marner's new ceiling if you prefer, but I still think he falls between his teammates JT and AM when the deal is done if the length is > 6 years. What's a mere $8,000 per year AAV among friends the difference between Panarin and Matthews?

 

[Bomber0104]

Obviously, it is better for him.

He isn't worth that.

That's the reason for the standoff.

We'll see if Dubas can convince them that.