Return for Matthews in a trade

[NVious]

Auston. Matthews. Is. Not. Getting. Traded.

You don't replace clear number 1 Centers. You build around them. We need more beef in the top 6. You can get away with one soft winger but not 2. At least one of MM or Willie (or both) go LONG before Matthews. On pace to be the leading scorer in Leafs history and some here want to dump him? Unreal.

Joe Thornton says hi.

He's not even .5gpg in the playoffs, but we pay him like he's McDavid, Mack or Drai lmfao.

Mackinnon - 100pts in 77gp
McDavid - 75pts in 49gp
Drai 77pts in 49gp
Matthews 44pts in 50gp

 

[Hellcat]

I'm not sure there is any trade that makes sense, 1st line superstar centers don't grow on trees.

Say we send Matty home, say we we get Keller (1st line LW), Hayton (2nd line center) back in return, Tavares is now our 1st line center, is that something we are comfortable with?

Mitch can take any linemate and make them better. He plays every zone.

Willie as exciting as he is, I fear when he gets his retirement contract, he turns into a lazy unmotivated player.

Tavares as much as it would be nearly impossible to trade him, as he has a NMC, he has to be the center that is moved.

For me, it has to be JT and Willie that are moved. Those two players should be valued as a high end 2nd line winger.

I'd like to get cheaper, younger and faster.

 

[SOLR]

Rather the cap be evenly distributed throughout the line up than wasted on a couple of marquee players who apparently can’t get it done. Yes less flash, but better chance at success. Guess I’m a no name generic kind of guy……..

All the best teams have 3 highly-paid players, the problem with the leafs: there are 4

I'm not sure there is any trade that makes sense, 1st line superstar centers don't grow on trees.

Say we send Matty home, say we we get Keller (1st line LW), Hayton (2nd line center) back in return, Tavares is now our 1st line center, is that something we are comfortable with?

Mitch can take any linemate and make them better. He plays every zone.

Willie as exciting as he is, I fear when he gets his retirement contract, he turns into a lazy unmotivated player.

Tavares as much as it would be nearly impossible to trade him, as he has a NMC, he has to be the center that is moved.

For me, it has to be JT and Willie that are moved. Those two players should be valued as a high end 2nd line winger.

I'd like to get cheaper, younger and faster.

Don't think you get Keller or you want him (why would Arizona do this trade without someone to play with Matthews?). You want pick no 6 because it gives you a high-end prospect, and you want Cooley because he's a potential Matthews-level replacement. Hayton for the present is a good price.

 

[pcruz]

Joe Thornton says hi.

He's not even .5gpg in the playoffs, but we pay him like he's McDavid, Mack or Drai lmfao.

Mackinnon - 100pts in 77gp
McDavid - 75pts in 49gp
Drai 77pts in 49gp
Matthews 44pts in 50gp

Say hello to Jumbo.


Also, can you elaborate on what exactly the Oilers duo has accomplished with their all out offense and no defending whatsoever?

Yeah!

 

[Menzinger]

That's worse?

This team which clearly has Stanley cup talent has performed 2 games TWO GAMES better than Kessel/Phaneuf and co, that is a 1st round win and one win in the 2nd round.

The reason those teams were worse was because they refused to do the obvious and tank, the pieces we can get moving some/all of the core are massive along with the pieces we already have here.

To me sucking in the season is not worse than being catastrophically let down every year.

Again, this team lost to a zamboni driver and then proceeded to get embarrassed in the playoffs one more time.

Those Leafs teams couldn't even make the playoffs, save for the fluke run they had in the shortened season. Yes, it's a lot worse.

 

[Americanadian]

You generally make good points and cap balance is accepted wisdom. We know too heavy is not that effective. But you went too far on the side of looking for valued contracts and forgot the part about still having elite talent.

Does Wyatt Johnston project to be a Hart capable player? I don’t think so. Does he project to be somewhere between a Stutzle and a Suzuki? Debatable. But we just got a massive haircut in our long term top end.

I agree that top end talent is needed. I look at Carolina as the gold standard for how to run a franchise. They built around Aho and Slavin and paid before they broke out. I don't think Aho is an unrealistic comparable for Johnston.

I think the current issue is the big 3 (Matthews, Marner, Nylander) have been overpaid once (argue all you want about Nylander but I don't believe he deserved more than Pastrnak and Ehlers when he was signed). Now they are coming back up and they are all looking for raises when their comparables are still getting paid less (except Nylander - but he still doesn't deserve more than Forsberg). I think the players are more concerned with being paid maximum value than they are winning which is why I want to re-start the roster and the cap structure of this team.

I should specify: having star players is not a bad team building recipe. Overpaying star players relative to your competitors is a bad recipe.

 

[Americanadian]

Because when balancing the probabilities, we have a better chance of winning with this core then we do going back to zero and starting from scratch. Think about the pain of a rebuild and how long that could take and it's no guarantee that even rebuilding would work. Maybe you're looking at 2030 before we get back to winning if they blow it up.

If this was last year I would have said do something like one of the big 2 for Tkachuck. But this year I'm not seeing that type of deal. And I'm not prepared for a full on rebuild.

Coincidentally probability is my field. The probability of winning is based on the variety of outcomes each players provides. If you have one player who provides between (0.1,0.6) goals above expected per game like a Matthews and you turn him into 3 players whose output is (0,0.3) GAx per game and they replace 2 nothing players you are more likely to win. You reduce overall output variance when you spread the expected outcome across 3 players. A player like Matthews with a very high end expected outcome can still turn in a low outcome game just as much as he can turn out a high outcome game (0 GAx), whereas the likelihood of 3 lesser players all producing a low outcome game is significantly less likely.

That's a lot of words and hopefully it makes sense to you. If it doesn't I don't blame you. The whole theory is you are more likely to achieve higher output when you give yourself more opportunities.

 

[Matthews4Calder]

Say hello to Jumbo.


Also, can you elaborate on what exactly the Oilers duo has accomplished with their all out offense and no defending whatsoever?

Yeah!

Winning is one thing especially going all the way to win a Cup. Oilers haven't done it with their 2 stars but you can't say it's because of the 2. They put up points, show up unlike our stars. Really a pathetic showing in Round 2 by our core especially game 3 which none of them showed up especially Matthews and Marner.

 

[Americanadian]

A player like Matty doesn't get moved for a rental price, forget about his contract. You have to assume that's not part of the equation or the thread is pointless.

WJ's career high could be 40 pts - its happened many times. After all we've been through if that's the next big move the fan response could be violent.

Our team has problems and it's not a winner but you have to appreciate the asset capital we have and manage it with respect.

I think the safer outcome is taking the 20 year old center who lead the league in goals by a U20 player this year over a 50%? 40%? 25%? chance to get the privilege to overpay Matthews into his 30s. I didn't say it was Johnston for Matthews straight up. I'd be looking for another piece whether that be Stankoven or Harley or Bischel.

 

[notbias]

Winning is one thing especially going all the way to win a Cup. Oilers haven't done it with their 2 stars but you can't say it's because of the 2. They put up points, show up unlike our stars. Really a pathetic showing in Round 2 by our core especially game 3 which none of them showed up especially Matthews and Marner.

Drai was MIA for most of his last series too...

 

[Donnie740]

Joe Thornton says hi.

He's not even .5gpg in the playoffs, but we pay him like he's McDavid, Mack or Drai lmfao.

Mackinnon - 100pts in 77gp
McDavid - 75pts in 49gp
Drai 77pts in 49gp
Matthews 44pts in 50gp

What about all of the “expected goals for” and “high danger opportunities” that Matthews had.

That has to count for something, right?

 

[JSn0w93]

Auston. Matthews. Is. Not. Getting. Traded.

You don't replace clear number 1 Centers. You build around them. We need more beef in the top 6. You can get away with one soft winger but not 2. At least one of MM or Willie (or both) go LONG before Matthews. On pace to be the leading scorer in Leafs history and some here want to dump him? Unreal.

Yeah sure. If he wants to stay, if he says anything but yes or let's work to get it done when approached we have to trade him. This will be an immediate litmus test for our new GM.

 

[sxvnert]

History has proven his next 8 years of regular season won’t be as productive as his 1st 8. Something to think about.

Which is exactly why he should have been signed to 8 years and moved at the end.

 

[sxvnert]

I have to admit, it was pretty genius of Matthews to get the no movement clause by June 30. Gives him all the negotiating power.

Its the earliest possible opportunity he could add a NTC/NMC contact. I believe its based on age/years of service (or a combo of both). The genius was finding a GM dumb enough to agree to a 5yr deal.

 

[TheRumble]

It's one of the shittest contracts in the league to trade.

It has 1 year left and he has an NMC. The team trading for him either has to be okay with a rental or he has to be willing to extend upon being traded so despite not having an NMC until July 1st, the length acts as one.

Because of his cap number as well, we'll need to take a few bad contracts back to even the money out. Not many teams can casually add 11 million to their books.

The best case scenario is a couple of draft picks and a mid tier prospect that we hope can have an unexpected progression like Tage Thompson did.

Worst case scenario is something akin to the Tyler Seguin trade.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Where are they trading him?

There's only really L.A. that's in a good position to trade for him.

 

[LeafEgo]

I think the safer outcome is taking the 20 year old center who lead the league in goals by a U20 player this year over a 50%? 40%? 25%? chance to get the privilege to overpay Matthews into his 30s. I didn't say it was Johnston for Matthews straight up. I'd be looking for another piece whether that be Stankoven or Harley or Bischel.

I respect your thought process but feel you are missing some important big picture details. Matty is in that highest upper echelon of players who could change the sports dynamics of an American city. The next Ovi but American.

Most these players stay, and he said he wanted to stay last week - we have a year to work it out. I think the percentage chance of keeping him is higher than 50%, and you multiply that by his value and you get something higher than WJ and Stanky. But because the suitors will line up, now it only matters what hes worth to them, and the winner of that battle will pay a premium.

On the flip side it's a unique situation, and we don't know the medical story which could have a material impact on how things play out. He has the power to make things difficult if he wanted to go down that road. There's also a time crunch that could produce an unusual outcome.

 

[pcruz]

Winning is one thing especially going all the way to win a Cup. Oilers haven't done it with their 2 stars but you can't say it's because of the 2. They put up points, show up unlike our stars. Really a pathetic showing in Round 2 by our core especially game 3 which none of them showed up especially Matthews and Marner.

Why can't you blame the stars in Edmonton, but attribute all the failure to Matthews and Marner?

Strange bit of selective criticism.

Is it because of their offensive production?

Do you, like many Leafs fans, not realize there are 3 zones and dozens of roles and duties to be performed in?

What good is scoring 4 goals, but being so putrid defensively that your team loses the game?

 

[Puckstuff]

Coincidentally probability is my field. The probability of winning is based on the variety of outcomes each players provides. If you have one player who provides between (0.1,0.6) goals above expected per game like a Matthews and you turn him into 3 players whose output is (0,0.3) GAx per game and they replace 2 nothing players you are more likely to win. You reduce overall output variance when you spread the expected outcome across 3 players. A player like Matthews with a very high end expected outcome can still turn in a low outcome game just as much as he can turn out a high outcome game (0 GAx), whereas the likelihood of 3 lesser players all producing a low outcome game is significantly less likely.

That's a lot of words and hopefully it makes sense to you. If it doesn't I don't blame you. The who theory is you are more likely to achieve higher output when you give yourself more opportunities.

This is interesting to note and something I’ve thought about. I wanted to do Matthews for Danault and Fiala or something of the nature, but was ripped. But if we could spread around the goals it would appear to be less risky.

 

[Americanadian]

I respect your thought process but feel you are missing some important big picture details. Matty is in that highest upper echelon of players who could change the sports dynamics of an American city. The next Ovi but American.

Most these players stay, and he said he wanted to stay last week - we have a year to work it out. I think the percentage chance of keeping him is higher than 50%, and you multiply that by his value and you get something higher than WJ and Stanky. But because the suitors will line up, now it only matters what hes worth to them, and the winner of that battle will pay a premium.

On the flip side it's a unique situation, and we don't know the medical story which could have a material impact on how things play out. He has the power to make things difficult if he wanted to go down that road. There's also a time crunch that could produce an unusual outcome.

I disagree with the bolded.

I do think the medical history is another wrinkle that needs to be evaluated. If Matthews needs wrist surgery this off-season and needs to alter the mechanics of his shot there's no promise that he will ever be a 60 or even 50 goal scorer again. His next contract could be rewarded to a player that no longer exists (60 goal scorer, MVP, Auston Matthews).

 

[thewave]

Wow.

You guys realize it can take over a decade to get a no.1 C like Matthews ever again.

His supporting cast is a bunch of losers from the players to the coach to the GM. You guys have no idea what you're doing. Go enjoy the weather, you're losing it trading Matthews.

It looks like we are losing him for nothing anyways.

 

[Americanadian]

This is interesting to note and something I’ve thought about. I wanted to do Matthews for Danault and Fiala or something of the nature, but was ripped. But if we could spread around the goals it would appear to be less risky.

I would prefer not trading Matthews for 2 older players. I'd rather the biggest piece coming back be a younger player. I do like the thought process of spreading out the goals. In theory I'd rather a top 6 of 6 35 goal scorers rather than a 60, 40, 35, 30, 20, 15 goal scorer.

 

[Zero1]

If he doesn’t verbally agree to a contract extension before July 1st then you have to trade him.

You cannot let Matthews’ NMC kick in and walk him to UFA.

Arizona makes a big splash after the Tempe arena deal falls apart. Arizona fans are excited to get a home grown superstar and now the Tempe deal is in the back of their mind?

I want Cooley + Keller as a starting point.

 

[LeafEgo]

I disagree with the bolded.

I do think the medical history is another wrinkle that needs to be evaluated. If Matthews needs wrist surgery this off-season and needs to alter the mechanics of his shot there's no promise that he will ever be a 60 or even 50 goal scorer again. His next contract could be rewarded to a player that no longer exists (60 goal scorer, MVP, Auston Matthews).

Indeed, we'd start getting closer to Eichel territory.

 

[Puckstuff]

I would prefer not trading Matthews for 2 older players. I'd rather the biggest piece coming back be a younger player. I do like the thought process of spreading out the goals. In theory I'd rather a top 6 of 6 35 goal scorers rather than a 60, 40, 35, 30, 20, 15 goal scorer.

But does Matthews with only 1 year get us that? Not so sure. Not many teams want to risk losing a top young player for a guy who might not stick around. Matthews controls the cards here.