Re-tooling For One More Run With This Core

[mikeyz]

Our Leafs are 0-10 in series clinching wins and Tampa Bay has run their record to 10-0 in series winning results and going for #11 on their way to their 3rd Stanley Cup in a row.

Some Leaf fans and perhaps management even thinks and believes that Leafs and Lightening are very similar, like looking in a mirror, when the results are polar opposites of the least successful team vs the most successful team in a salary cap era in reality..

So its not uncommon for a Cup contender to "run it back" and make only a few peripheral changes out of necessity because its hard to keep a winning team together, or in Toronto despite what some believe its tough to tear an unsuccessful team apart.

What seems insane to some of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, but one of these years the Leafs are going to win and playoff round, its mathematical probability, because you can't lose forever, just like TB can't keep winning forever either.

Since it doesn't seem anything is going to change in Toronto might as well hope lucky number 7 is the charm.

Until there is no time left in games 4/5/6/7 and that 4th win in a playoff series is secured, I am just going to believe that they’re going to lose in the 1st round again. They haven’t proven me wrong yet.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I’m comparing to the team salary structure and where other UFAs have gone.
Again, Jeff Skinner got 9 mil. Do you think Nylander is better?

Then there is also the internal salary structure your GM created.
Again I ask, how many million less is Nylander worth? 4 million? 2 million?
What is Kane going to make? 8? 8.5? Is Nylander better?

Don’t forget thanks to your GM, Matthews is also UFA the same year. What does he make? 13 +? Is Nylander comparable at 3 million less?

Nylander also holds all the cards. UFA. He can walk for an 8.5 offer.

Skinner is easily the worst deal in the league, that’s your comparable?
I think if you can get willy on a 6-8 x 8.5m that’s not a problem going forward. You expect a cap jump during that time, and it’s only 1.6m extra to come up with. Same with Mitch & Auston. They both won’t need a lot of extra money to extend them when needed, especially with JT’s $11 coming up in that time frame.

 

[notbias]

Is this like the Sesame Street quizz ... 3 of these are not like the other...

Stamkos, Tavares, Rielly?

 

[Antropovsky]

I just want to be clear, Marner is overpaid by a couple million, but Fox who is making 9.5 has seasons of 47pts in 55 and 42pts in 70, and the 47 in 55 was propped up by the powerplay, he deserved the 9.5 per, but 94pt Marner got overpaid.

Fox is an amazing player, but 9.5 is a lot for 125 games where you put up 89pts, they were betting on his potential and it paid off.

So Marner had one more season to sample? His two seasons before playing with a 27 year old 11 million dollar center were 61 and 69 points.

Stamkos, Tavares, Rielly?

Stamkos 8.5 million per year
42 goals, 106 points. 37 points more than the next Tampa Bay forward.

7.8 million - Hedman 20 goals 85 points in 82 games
7.5 million - Rielly 10 goals 68 points in 82 games

 

[hamzarocks]

I think if you can get willy on a 6-8 x 8.5m that’s not a problem going forward. You expect a cap jump during that time, and it’s only 1.6m extra to come up with. Same with Mitch & Auston. They both won’t need a lot of extra money to extend them when needed, especially with JT’s $11 coming up in that time frame.

1.6M to each is almost 50% of JTs 11M

If we assume JT walks after we got 5.8M from his savings to get a 2C replacement

If he signs for a 2-year deal at 4-5M almost all his 11M is redistributed amongst the big 4 who will then be 2 years older and starting to slowly decline ( JT will not be a 1C, Nylander will fall slowly like most wingers in their latest 20s)

Keeping these 4 really with 3 of them getting larger contracts should only occur if they have back to back good playoff runs

No way the leafs should be trying to compete with these 4 if they continue to fail the next 2 years. The core needs to prove they're worth extending the next 2 years

 

[notbias]

So Marner had one more season to sample? His two seasons before playing with a 27 year old 11 million dollar center were 61 and 69 points.


Stamkos 8.5 million per year
42 goals, 106 points. 37 points more than the next Tampa Bay forward.

So Point? Not following

 

[Antropovsky]

So Point? Not following

Matthews had 1.45 points per game this year
Marner had 1.34 points per game this year
Stamkos had 1.29 points per game

Why do you think Stamkos is not like the others?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Is this like the Sesame Street quizz ... 3 of these are not like the other...

If you look at just the best four:

Kucherov 9.5, Hedman 7.9, Vasi 9.5, Point 9.5 = 36.4 million

Marner 11, Matthews 11.5, Rielly 7.5, Nylander 7 = 37 million

Not as much difference in either cost or talent.

 

[Dreakmur]

If you look at just the best four:

Kucherov 9.5, Hedman 7.9, Vasi 9.5, Point 9.5 = 36.4 million

Marner 11, Matthews 11.5, Rielly 7.5, Nylander 7 = 37 million

Not as much difference in either cost or talent.

The problem is they have 11 million bucks in a guy that isn't even on this list.

 

[Mess]

The problem is they have 11 million bucks in a guy that isn't even on this list.

& TB list includes an All World goalie in their core 4.

 

[ULF_55]

& TB list includes an All World goalie in their core 4.

Probably have to put a Norris and Conn Smythe winner in the All World defender category too.

 

[Menzinger]

It’s already started. We have 2 years until this phase is done but it’s started now.
7.5 million Morgan Rielly is not better than 5 million Rielly. For the extra money he doesn’t suddenly become Hedman. He is the same as we’ve had.

Matthews/Nylander will be UFA in 2 years.
Again, 13/14 mil Matthews and 9/10 mil Nylander aren’t suddenly champions. They just make more money because the salary isn’t going down.

The clock is ticking on this phase. ELC done. This current phase. 2 years and counting. Will they win a round this year?

I agree the clock is obviously shrinking, but there's still two full season-playoff cycles left, which isn't insignificant either.

If the plan is to retool for a future run in say 3-4 seasons once some more picks/prospects have developed into impact players, then I think the team would/should probably consider moving up to 2-3 more of those core guys. There's no guarantee Marner and Matthews are willing to pledge their futures to a team not ready to be competitive. Moving out say just Nylander and Muzzin just comes across as a half measure in this respect.

This is exactly why I favor keeping the group together for at least one more run. It's an incredibly rare thing to have a group like this,
why I'd be reluctant to wash my hands of such high skilled players

 

[nuck]

How about no nylander is one of the pieces I wouldn’t trade he’s on a value deal and I’m sure he’ll resign for another value deal that runs through his prime

He set the market on his last deal and only steep inflation moved it to the value category. I expect him to ask for 10-20% more than his comps just like last time and to play hardball with the club because that's been his history. And next deal he wont be RFA. That doesnt make him a villain but considering both Marner and Matthew's will be looking at raises, his next deal will be a hard pill to swallow. Forsberg's next contract will shed some light on where Willies comparables will start at.

 

[BigBlu]

He set the market on his last deal and only steep inflation moved it to the value category. I expect him to ask for 10-20% more than his comps just like last time and to play hardball with the club because that's been his history. And next deal he wont be RFA. That doesnt make him a villain but considering both Marner and Matthew's will be looking at raises, his next deal will be a hard pill to swallow. Forsberg's next contract will shed some light on where Willies comparables will start at.

Agree. I think Willy's current deal makes him worth keeping right now. But he's no altruist. And if I remember correctly, he's not the only star Leaf player with a dad who wants every penny. Even rooted in some personal bitterness.

 

[nuck]

Agree. I think Willy's current deal makes him worth keeping right now. But he's no altruist. And if I remember correctly, he's not the only star Leaf player with a dad who wants every penny. Even rooted in some personal bitterness.

I dont expect any of the big 3 to take a club friendly deal, thats a rare hope with players in any era, and less so today. Can the Leafs flesh out a Cup competitive lineup with JT plus paying Willie, Mitch and Austin full retail on their next deals? I hate the idea that the club sinks or swims based on needing to find crazy cheap deals like Spezza and Bunting every season.

 

[BigBlu]

I dont expect any of the big 3 to take a club friendly deal, thats a rare hope with players in any era, and less so today. Can the Leafs flesh out a Cup competitive lineup with JT plus paying Willie, Mitch and Austin full retail on their next deals? I hate the idea that the club sinks or swims based on needing to find crazy cheap deals like Spezza and Bunting every season.

It sucks. Management was not counting on COVID freezing the CAP either...

Honestly. Tavares is untradeable. Matthews is indispensable. Willy is on a decent deal. Marner is overpaid.

Maybe we salvage 1 year of Tavares before stretching his deal becomes a real discussion. And maybe it Marner who actually needs to go.

Ultimately, Matty and Willy on fair new deals with Reilly locked in + some cap space + some (cheap) reinforcements from the minors/draft seems OK to me.

 

[hfman]

There are no leaders on this team.

Tavares is the only one who might be in that conversation, but even then he's just a soft, quiet, slow-spoken methodical type of guy that couldn't lead a line of ants. A great player but not a dressing room leader. Which is not a problem. Lucky to have him. But he isn't a captain. They put the C on him because there was no one else.

The rest of them are even less of leaders. There's literally no "men" on the team, just boys. Hyper-talented boys to be sure, but none of them are mature enough to take it to the next level.

Just look at the teams remaining in the playoffs- like Tampa, New York, Colorado, etc. All battalion-type men, ready to battle. But the Leafs have, what- Nylander? Marner? Matthews? lol. There are no warriors in that list. Just weak and flimsy, but talented kids. Which is why they never get out of the 1st round

 

[Dreakmur]

There are no leaders on this team.

Tavares is the only one who might be in that conversation, but even then he's just a soft, quiet, slow-spoken methodical type of guy that couldn't lead a line of ants. A great player but not a dressing room leader. Which is not a problem. Lucky to have him. But he isn't a captain. They put the C on him because there was no one else.

The rest of them are even less of leaders. There's literally no "men" on the team, just boys. Hyper-talented boys to be sure, but none of them are mature enough to take it to the next level.

Just look at the teams remaining in the playoffs- like Tampa, New York, Colorado, etc. All battalion-type men, ready to battle. But the Leafs have, what- Nylander? Marner? Matthews? lol. There are no warriors in that list. Just weak and flimsy, but talented kids. Which is why they never get out of the 1st round

Morgan Rielly is absolutely a leader. He should have been given the C.

Jake Muzzin is a leader.

They are definitely lacking in that area.

 

[AvroArrow]

We were literally 1 legit call away from advancing, instead Tampa is now in the finals again. We are way closer than people think. The Atlantic is much stronger than the Metro, we will get over the hump. Tampa players will start declining soon, if they already haven't. We can't keep getting these kind of dog shit officials.

Game tying goal in game 6 scored off of a blatant interference, then 4 uncalled penalties in OT on the same play results in a Tampa goal, phantom 5 on 3 earlier in the game as well. Do people not realize how many bullshit calls and non-calls had to go in Tampas favor for them to win that game ?

And then both goals in game 7 off of blatant interferences, we get a goal called back because of interference for the exact same play they made. Nylander mugged on a breakway no call, Nylander tripped on the PP 1 foot away from the ref in the 3rd period, no call.

Re-tool run it back, we are right there. I don't know if we would have made the finals but we absolutely deserved to advance to the 2nd round. People are over reacting about Tavares and this core "not getting it done" no team is going to outplay a team like Tampa + officials.

 

[PromisedLand]

• Step 1: Fire Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• Step 2: Hire competence
• Step 3: Tough decisions
  • Trade one of Marner/Nylander
    • has to be done. Ideally Tavares, but nobody is touching that contract in the league
  • Trade one of Muzzin/Brodie
    • Get Sandin playing time
  • Trade Mrazek
  • Find a #1G via trade from a team looking to rebuild
• Step 4: Easy Decisions
  • Trade Holl for a back of pucks for all I care
  • Trade Kerfoot for whatever
• Step 4: Tough discussions
  • Tell tavares he is too slow to play center, put him on the wing
  • tell the remaining core that you need full buy in
• Step 5: Foresight decisions/Planning
  • Get feelers from Matthews' camp about if he is planning on re-signing,
    • If No then trade him; don't let him Tavares us
    • If yes, see if the cap/term makes sense. If it is ridiculous do not negotiate just trade him and look to future
  • Get feelers from whoever you didn't trade (Marner/Nylander)
    • Repeat Matthews' process
  • All of Matthews, Marner and Nylander NTC/NMCs kick in end of next season
    • We need to know how we are going to proceed. Do not wait till the last minute when it becomes too late and there is a potential these guys walk as UFAs screwing over the club/fans

Potential Roster (next season)

Forwards
Bunting-Matthews-XXX/Marner
Tavares-XXX-XXX
XXX-Kampf-XXX/Nylander
Clifford-XXX-Simmonds

Defense
Rielly-XXX(Brodie if not traded)
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin/(Muzzin if not traded)-XXX/Sandin

Goalies:
XXX
XXX

OUT:

• Most important: -> Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• One of
  • Marner/Nylander
  • Brodie/Muzzin
• Should definitely be out
  • Holl
  • Kerfoot
  • Mrazek
• Not sure:
  • Mikheyev, Engvall, Kase
  • personally don't really care much. They are not the depth pieces that are a must keep IMO

IN: (Need)
TBD

• Top 6C
• Top 2D (RHD)
• #1G
• quality depth pieces

Potential cap space available:

• Holl+Kerfoot+Mrazek = approx 7.2 million
• Brodie or Muzzin (about 5 million) and Marner or Nylander (11 to 7 million) = approx 12M to 18M
• TOTAL: 7.2 + 12 to 18M
  • 19.2M to 25.2M
• Take the upper 25.2M to retool or
• Plan for another rebuild if Matthews not re-signing but with new competent management group

 

[nuck]

We were literally 1 legit call away from advancing, instead Tampa is now in the finals again. We are way closer than people think. The Atlantic is much stronger than the Metro, we will get over the hump. Tampa players will start declining soon, if they already haven't. We can't keep getting these kind of dog shit officials.

Game tying goal in game 6 scored off of a blatant interference, then 4 uncalled penalties in OT on the same play results in a Tampa goal, phantom 5 on 3 earlier in the game as well. Do people not realize how many bullshit calls and non-calls had to go in Tampas favor for them to win that game ?

And then both goals in game 7 off of blatant interferences, we get a goal called back because of interference for the exact same play they made. Nylander mugged on a breakway no call, Nylander tripped on the PP 1 foot away from the ref in the 3rd period, no call.

Re-tool run it back, we are right there. I don't know if we would have made the finals but we absolutely deserved to advance to the 2nd round. People are over reacting about Tavares and this core "not getting it done" no team is going to outplay a team like Tampa + officials.

You can look at is as one call away, or as a golden opportunity wasted with a banged up Point and Vasi off his game. There is no reason to expect further organic growth next season because they have as many older declining guys as younger improving guys. Maybe they are just on the cusp or maybe this was their chance, like STL and Washington with their one year runs. So they hit a strong and healthy club next round 1 with excellent goaltending and are out in 5 or 6, the odds are pretty much the same.

The wildcard IMO is in goal. 2021 Jack was better than the Vasi they just met in the playoffs or this year's Kuemper and if they can get that guy back, or an equal replacement, this team has a chance. Run it back except with an excellent goalie and who knows?

 

[AvroArrow]

You can look at is as one call away, or as a golden opportunity wasted with a banged up Point and Vasi off his game. There is no reason to expect further organic growth next season because they have as many older declining guys as younger improving guys. Maybe they are just on the cusp or maybe this was their chance, like STL and Washington with their one year runs. So they hit a strong and healthy club next round 1 with excellent goaltending and are out in 5 or 6, the odds are pretty much the same.

The wildcard IMO is in goal. 2021 Jack was better than the Vasi they just met in the playoffs or this year's Kuemper and if they can get that guy back, or an equal replacement, this team has a chance. Run it back except with an excellent goalie and who knows?

I mean we can hold our guys accountable for not burying their chances, but we cannot hold our players accountable for getting held/interfered en route to their goals. We absolutely still could have won, but it becomes 100x harder when you have to overcome those kinds of phantom calls and blatant non-calls.

Point is, we should not have to play through that kind of biased officiating. I won't call it a wasted opportunity because I genuinely believe our team played great overall and were the far superior team, just too much of an influence by the Zebras.

 

[mydnyte]

I don't agree, I think their collective hit together cancels our their value. 21 million for two players is bad cap management. We have to compete with Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman. Vasi. Point making 8.5, 9.5, 9.5, 7.8, 10.5 - 45.8 million

Marner 11, matthews 11.5, Nylander 7,Tavares 11, Rielly 7.5- 48 million

My math may be slightly off.

Their 5 is considerably better than our top 5 and ours makes a few million more than theirs.

Problem is Marner, Matthews and Tavares were selfish and didn't think of "winning" when they signed their contracts. Meanwhile Mackinnon has been saying for a while that he will take less to continue to be competitive. Makar certainly could've gotten more than 9 million if he wanted. Fox could've gotten more than 9.5 if he wanted.... etc etc.

We have an excellent core but the majority of them are 1-2 million overpaid and we have watched our depth player quality diminish quickly. Chicago had the same happen after their cup win... there is only so long that you get lucky and replace a proven player with a cheaper one. Dubas did great with Kampf, but failed on Ritchie. Kase was OK but he was cheap because of injuries and overall his injuries probably effected our ability to win this year. Engvall and Mikheyev became solid contributors, finally have developed but before we can reap their full benefit we will likely lose them to ufa. Now we must find their cheap replacements and hope to get lucky.

When Marner said "we are tired of this feeling".... I feel no sympathy, because everybody knew when he held out for every last penny that this was the likely outcome .... a team not able to ice a good enough roster. There were plenty of articles saying it. It bugs me because we are close...it shows how instrumental their paydays were to this team.

"We are tired of this feeling" .....we.... pffft.

Matthews could have easily gotten more though, and didn't try to. Which is why I don't care about his contract.... Marner... that guy tried his hardest to get as much as he could and I'm convinced he only took the leafs offer because offersheets were worse than what he twisted from the Leafs.

your math doesnt matter because players signed contracts in different years, and in different cities with completely different tax implications.
take Point and Marner's contracts for example as they were signed in the same off season, if you factor in the tax difference, Point makes more than Marner, but, because of Florida has a lower cap hit

Point vs Marner ...Point makes 1/2 a million more NET than Marner, while having a lower cap hit... and accountants playing with numbers is irrelevant, because Point as well as Marner both have accountant trying to maximize the NET, so, when people try to argue that point, its just silly, because they make it sound like only Marner would have an accountant, and not Point.

ESTIMATED TAX RATE	TAX PAID	NET INCOME

40.79%

$3,670,738

$5,329,262

53.25%

$5,515,134

$4,842,866

this is HUGE, and the league and player's association have never done squat to equalize and compensate all the high tax cities... if there is a flat cap (as there is) the taxes should also be factored into the Cap too!

 

[Antropovsky]

your math doesnt matter because players signed contracts in different years, and in different cities with completely different tax implications.
take Point and Marner's contracts for example as they were signed in the same off season, if you factor in the tax difference, Point makes more than Marner, but, because of Florida has a lower cap hit

Point vs Marner ...Point makes 1/2 a million more NET than Marner, while having a lower cap hit... and accountants playing with numbers is irrelevant, because Point as well as Marner both have accountant trying to maximize the NET, so, when people try to argue that point, its just silly, because they make it sound like only Marner would have an accountant, and not Point.

ESTIMATED TAX RATE	TAX PAID	NET INCOME

40.79%

$3,670,738

$5,329,262

53.25%

$5,515,134

$4,842,866

this is HUGE, and the league and player's association have never done squat to equalize and compensate all the high tax cities... if there is a flat cap (as there is) the taxes should also be factored into the Cap too!

I don't disagree that the taxes make it more difficult for teams without the tax benefits. but Marner is like top 3 in endorsements money, he makes 2.7 million annually according to Forbes.

 

[ULF_55]

If they have a goaltender ...

They are good enough to make the playoffs without any changes.

IMO they are good enough to make the playoffs and fill in the holes with Marlies who are knocking on the door.

At TDD check out what is available and if reasonable pay the price to add to the playoffs bound team.

Holl and Kerfoot transactions might be all that is needed.