Re-tooling For One More Run With This Core

[CDN24]

Tampa-Leafs is an interesting comparison of what to do vs not to do over the last 15 years or so. In 2007 they had similar records Tampa had 93 points, Leafs had 91 Tampa snuck into a spot by virtue of being in the old Southeast division. Since then both bottomed out with their share of High picks. Both capitalized on their Top 10 Picks for the most part- the difference Tampa drafted a lot better outside the top 10.

Top 10 picks that Hit
Leafs - 2008-5 Schenn, 2009 -7 Kadri, 2010 and 2011 the failed kessel move,2012-5 Rielly, 2014-8 Nylander, 2015-4 Marner and 2016-1 Matthews
Tampa 2008-1 Stamkos, 2009-2 hedman, 2010-6 Connley bit of a miss there, 2012- 10th Koekkoek miss2013-3 Drouin a miss but turned it into Sergachev,

Leafs did better on the top 10 picks but after that

Tampa 2007 Killorn 3rd round, 2011 Kucherov 2nd round and Palat in the 7th, 2012 Vasi 19th overall 1st round but outside top 10. 2014 point in 3rd round 2015 Cirelli 3rd round, 2016 Colton in 4th round.

Leafs outside the top 10 closest they drafted to impact players are Connor Brown- traded,

That has been the difference Leafs since 2007 have drafted as poorly as anyone outside top 10 picks.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I dont expect any of the big 3 to take a club friendly deal, thats a rare hope with players in any era, and less so today. Can the Leafs flesh out a Cup competitive lineup with JT plus paying Willie, Mitch and Austin full retail on their next deals? I hate the idea that the club sinks or swims based on needing to find crazy cheap deals like Spezza and Bunting every season.

Good thing there’s only 1 overlap season of JT & Matthews/Willy extension and Marner expires the same time as JT. I’m pretty sure they can pay the 3 guys their long term raises from what JT or his replacement will sign for in his next deal, and still have change left over.
Brodie and Muzzin and mrazek currently come off the books the same time as Matthews and Willy so finding the money for one year shouldn’t be too hard, flat cap or not.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

That D is horrendous, and no way Giordano signs for 1 million.

Some of those player traded will need to have salary coming back as well... Muzzin value has plummeted with all those injuries, we're stuck with him for better or worse.

Mrazek, lol. That will cost quite a bit to get rid of.

Rielly at 7.5 millions is a no brainer, but for him to accept such a low AAV it would need to be an 8 y contract.

Why would Lyubushkin sign for 2 millions, or Blackwell for league min? These contracts are too cheap to be true

lol this didnt age well regarding Geo

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

your math doesnt matter because players signed contracts in different years, and in different cities with completely different tax implications.
take Point and Marner's contracts for example as they were signed in the same off season, if you factor in the tax difference, Point makes more than Marner, but, because of Florida has a lower cap hit

Point vs Marner ...Point makes 1/2 a million more NET than Marner, while having a lower cap hit... and accountants playing with numbers is irrelevant, because Point as well as Marner both have accountant trying to maximize the NET, so, when people try to argue that point, its just silly, because they make it sound like only Marner would have an accountant, and not Point.

ESTIMATED TAX RATE	TAX PAID	NET INCOME

40.79%

$3,670,738

$5,329,262

53.25%

$5,515,134

$4,842,866

this is HUGE, and the league and player's association have never done squat to equalize and compensate all the high tax cities... if there is a flat cap (as there is) the taxes should also be factored into the Cap too!

There was an article recently that said AM and MM make approximately $2.5M in endorsements. Add that to your calculations and see if you think MM is not over paid when you factor those $$ into your equations.

The funny part is, if Marner had signed for $9.5 he would probably make even more than the $2.5M in endorsements and would end up netting the same as he does now. The money saved could have been used to help the depth out and he would have been considered a hero in T.O.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Disagree with needing a starting goalie, Campbell was phenomenal.

Hmmm........he had three months with save % .915 or better(Oct., Nov. Apr.). The rest of the year he posted......

Dec. - .909
Jan. - .880
Feb. - .894
Mar. - .845

Not exactly "phenomenal".

 

[Nylanderthal]

That D is horrendous, and no way Giordano signs for 1 million.

Some of those player traded will need to have salary coming back as well... Muzzin value has plummeted with all those injuries, we're stuck with him for better or worse.

Mrazek, lol. That will cost quite a bit to get rid of.

Rielly at 7.5 millions is a no brainer, but for him to accept such a low AAV it would need to be an 8 y contract.

Why would Lyubushkin sign for 2 millions, or Blackwell for league min? These contracts are too cheap to be true

Swing and a miss WRT Gio, wonder what else you’ll be wrong about in this post (aside from not knowing Mo signed that 8x7.5m deal early in the season)

 

[Dekes For Days]

There was an article recently that said AM and MM make approximately $2.5M in endorsements. Add that to your calculations and see if you think MM is not over paid when you factor those $$ into your equations.

Not only is that number almost certainly off, but I'm not sure why people think endorsements impact cap hit anyway. It's like telling your employee that you're going to pay them less than they're worth because they could go work a 2nd job.

 

[Mess]

If winning brings one a winners mentality and has a positive effect, then constant losing must has a long-term negative residual effect on a teams core and its players.

The core group of the 3 Amigos with Rielly is now 0-6 in playoff round #1 attempts.

They go into each playoff telling everyone this is the year, they believe in themselves, and then they just wait and left wondering what went wrong again, when losing is the only outcome they have ever experienced.

Leafs core might not be rotten, but its certainly damaged and fragile by now.

 

[mydnyte]

There was an article recently that said AM and MM make approximately $2.5M in endorsements. Add that to your calculations and see if you think MM is not over paid when you factor those $$ into your equations.

The funny part is, if Marner had signed for $9.5 he would probably make even more than the $2.5M in endorsements and would end up netting the same as he does now. The money saved could have been used to help the depth out and he would have been considered a hero in T.O.

endorsements have nothing to do with an NHL CAP hit.
every player can get endorsements, regardless of where they live, because most endorsements are local anyways. ...only superstar level players get the big corporate deals, and thats based off the player, and irrelevant to their NHL contracts
Marner is not a spokesperson for any product/company that i've ever seen, unlike McKinnon & Crosby with Tim Horton's for example.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Not only is that number almost certainly off, but I'm not sure why people think endorsements impact cap hit anyway. It's like telling your employee that you're going to pay them less than they're worth because they could go work a 2nd job.

That number was from Forbes....so I would take it as being pretty close to the real thing. So now you are saying that playing in the biggest market and getting endorsement deals is a second job and its not a bonus for them in any way...wow...are you related to Dubas or something? I get defending some of his trades but you're next level with him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That number was from Forbes....so I would take it as being pretty close to the real thing. So now you are saying that playing in the biggest market and getting endorsement deals is a second job and its not a bonus for them in any way.

Everybody has a different number, and players (not to mention individuals in other industries) have spoken in the past about how inaccurate they usually are. Either way, it doesn't really matter. Potential for endorsement opportunities (which isn't just in Toronto FYI) could be a draw to a certain location, but it's not going to notably impact cap hits, and just for the record, it's not really an equivalent to doing absolutely nothing and getting more money.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Everybody has a different number, and players (not to mention individuals in other industries) have spoken in the past about how inaccurate they usually are. Either way, it doesn't really matter. Potential for endorsement opportunities (which isn't just in Toronto FYI) could be a draw to a certain location, but it's not going to notably impact cap hits, and just for the record, it's not really an equivalent to doing absolutely nothing and getting more money.

I agree there is some work involved...but it's like being a plumber and working for $50/hr in one city or $150/hr in another city. You are doing the same work basically (almost all the stars do endorsements) and getting paid much better.

The point of this is that there are some very good benefits that come with playing for Toronto and players shouldn't act like the cap money is all they can get. Tampa has the tax rate that the players use to their advantage...why not the endorsements up here?

If Mitch signed with CBJ like he was threatening to do...he would not be making that extra $$ that he does here...that was my point.

 

[LeafEgo]

Not only is that number almost certainly off, but I'm not sure why people think endorsements impact cap hit anyway. It's like telling your employee that you're going to pay them less than they're worth because they could go work a 2nd job.

It's not dollar for dollar, but the potential for lucrative endorsements (employee value proposition) will increase the supply (interested players) and reduce the demand (contract value).

It's more like offering your employee less pay simply because there are other candidates of equal value willing to take the deal given the overall benefits of the opportunity.

I'm not sure how material this was in the AM MM negotiations specifically, but the theory is sound.

 

[NJG]

TRADE: Mrazek - Kerfoot - Holl - Sandin - Robertson - Abruzzese - Der-Arguchintsev - Seney
SIGN: Lybushkin - Engvall - Liljegren $2M each all three of them.
DON'T SIGN: Mikheyev - Kase

We will get some of those prospects back at the draft.
We should be focusing on a big defensive d-man with the round one pick in the draft. Whoever is the best option available at 25.
Add Knies to the team next season on the first or second line LW and get rid of Bunting.
Try to make Engvall a Center and see if he can play there.
Use the rest of the cap space to fill the last slot or use marlies/prospects. Someone that can play as a two-way forward preferably with some size. (6'1-6'2)

Idunno if we could get it done but if it's possible. Hopefully the cap goes up next season lol.

SAAD/KANE - MATTHEWS - MARNER
BUNTING - TAVARES - NYLANDER
KAMPF - ENGVALL - ????????
CLIFFORD - DOUGLAS - SIMMONDS

MUZZIN - LYBUSHKIN
RIELLY - BRODIE
GIORDANO - DRAFTED D-MAN/LILJEGREN

GIBSON - KALLGREN

 

[ULF_55]

How many tweaks are required?

If Paul was the only change for the Leafs this past playoffs do they get past Tampa?

I know the story about not getting past the 1st. round means this team isn't good enough.
But this team was eliminated in game 7 by Nick Paul. It wasn't eliminated by Vasileskiy, or Stamkos, or Kucherov.
Yes, I know it isn't that simple, we're dealing with many implications by changing one player. BUT isn't that the entire point. You can't say it would or would not have made a difference with any evidence to support that position, it's just speculation.
What isn't speculation is the Leafs lost 2-1 with Paul carrying the offense load of the Lightning.

Bunting-Matthews-marner
Paul-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kase
Engvall-Kampf-Blackwell

I think going forward a 22 and 23 year old defensemen will get better, and carry a bigger load.
I am okay with running back the same defense, with the improving youngsters.

Who knows if Mrazek returns to health and his career .909, and 2.64.
And people do understand that 25 is still really young for a goaltender right? And 14 NHL games does not a career make.

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Giordano-Lyubuskin
Sandin-Holl

Now I'm not saying Paul is a target, a Paul type of player should be a target, but let's be honest here.

Nick Paul​

27 years old​

248 NHL games​

34 goals​

46 assists​

That is not a good player (by good I mean a player everyone is after - bidding war). It's like suggesting a player who does great in preseason and the first several games of the season is headed for a good career. I'm sure most of us have swallowed that on some players only to see them fade out of existence.

Why wouldn't you run back the same line-up with a couple adjustments?
You would have to be in the River Nile, not to acknowledge that this latest version of the Leafs never folded to end this series. Rather they were sunk by a career depth player who scored his first two goals of the series in game 7, and has added 2 more in the 11 subsequent games.

I'm in for a return trip with these guys, with a couple minor adjustments on and off the ice.

 

[HockeyVirus]

• Step 1: Fire Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• Step 2: Hire competence
• Step 3: Tough decisions
  • Trade one of Marner/Nylander
    • has to be done. Ideally Tavares, but nobody is touching that contract in the league
  • Trade one of Muzzin/Brodie
    • Get Sandin playing time
  • Trade Mrazek
  • Find a #1G via trade from a team looking to rebuild
• Step 4: Easy Decisions
  • Trade Holl for a back of pucks for all I care
  • Trade Kerfoot for whatever
• Step 4: Tough discussions
  • Tell tavares he is too slow to play center, put him on the wing
  • tell the remaining core that you need full buy in
• Step 5: Foresight decisions/Planning
  • Get feelers from Matthews' camp about if he is planning on re-signing,
    • If No then trade him; don't let him Tavares us
    • If yes, see if the cap/term makes sense. If it is ridiculous do not negotiate just trade him and look to future
  • Get feelers from whoever you didn't trade (Marner/Nylander)
    • Repeat Matthews' process
  • All of Matthews, Marner and Nylander NTC/NMCs kick in end of next season
    • We need to know how we are going to proceed. Do not wait till the last minute when it becomes too late and there is a potential these guys walk as UFAs screwing over the club/fans

Potential Roster (next season)

Forwards
Bunting-Matthews-XXX/Marner
Tavares-XXX-XXX
XXX-Kampf-XXX/Nylander
Clifford-XXX-Simmonds

Defense
Rielly-XXX(Brodie if not traded)
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin/(Muzzin if not traded)-XXX/Sandin

Goalies:
XXX
XXX

OUT:

• Most important: -> Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• One of
  • Marner/Nylander
  • Brodie/Muzzin
• Should definitely be out
  • Holl
  • Kerfoot
  • Mrazek
• Not sure:
  • Mikheyev, Engvall, Kase
  • personally don't really care much. They are not the depth pieces that are a must keep IMO

IN: (Need)
TBD

• Top 6C
• Top 2D (RHD)
• #1G
• quality depth pieces

Potential cap space available:

• Holl+Kerfoot+Mrazek = approx 7.2 million
• Brodie or Muzzin (about 5 million) and Marner or Nylander (11 to 7 million) = approx 12M to 18M
• TOTAL: 7.2 + 12 to 18M
  • 19.2M to 25.2M
• Take the upper 25.2M to retool or
• Plan for another rebuild if Matthews not re-signing but with new competent management group

You've just destroyed the team congrats. Zero chance you find proper fillers for those spots over an offseason. You'd end up with Mrazeks trying to patch holes or risk trading the farm to get 2nd liners.

How someone could suggest trading Brodie, who has been exactly what our D has needed and one of our most important dmen... I just can't agree with that thought process

 

[Nylanderthal]

endorsements have nothing to do with an NHL CAP hit.
every player can get endorsements, regardless of where they live, because most endorsements are local anyways. ...only superstar level players get the big corporate deals, and thats based off the player, and irrelevant to their NHL contracts
Marner is not a spokesperson for any product/company that i've ever seen, unlike McKinnon & Crosby with Tim Horton's for example.

Marner makes some good coin via red bull

• Step 1: Fire Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• Step 2: Hire competence
• Step 3: Tough decisions
  • Trade one of Marner/Nylander
    • has to be done. Ideally Tavares, but nobody is touching that contract in the league
  • Trade one of Muzzin/Brodie
    • Get Sandin playing time
  • Trade Mrazek
  • Find a #1G via trade from a team looking to rebuild
• Step 4: Easy Decisions
  • Trade Holl for a back of pucks for all I care
  • Trade Kerfoot for whatever
• Step 4: Tough discussions
  • Tell tavares he is too slow to play center, put him on the wing
  • tell the remaining core that you need full buy in
• Step 5: Foresight decisions/Planning
  • Get feelers from Matthews' camp about if he is planning on re-signing,
    • If No then trade him; don't let him Tavares us
    • If yes, see if the cap/term makes sense. If it is ridiculous do not negotiate just trade him and look to future
  • Get feelers from whoever you didn't trade (Marner/Nylander)
    • Repeat Matthews' process
  • All of Matthews, Marner and Nylander NTC/NMCs kick in end of next season
    • We need to know how we are going to proceed. Do not wait till the last minute when it becomes too late and there is a potential these guys walk as UFAs screwing over the club/fans

Potential Roster (next season)

Forwards
Bunting-Matthews-XXX/Marner
Tavares-XXX-XXX
XXX-Kampf-XXX/Nylander
Clifford-XXX-Simmonds

Defense
Rielly-XXX(Brodie if not traded)
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin/(Muzzin if not traded)-XXX/Sandin

Goalies:
XXX
XXX

OUT:

• Most important: -> Shanahan/Dubas/Keefe
• One of
  • Marner/Nylander
  • Brodie/Muzzin
• Should definitely be out
  • Holl
  • Kerfoot
  • Mrazek
• Not sure:
  • Mikheyev, Engvall, Kase
  • personally don't really care much. They are not the depth pieces that are a must keep IMO

IN: (Need)
TBD

• Top 6C
• Top 2D (RHD)
• #1G
• quality depth pieces

Potential cap space available:

• Holl+Kerfoot+Mrazek = approx 7.2 million
• Brodie or Muzzin (about 5 million) and Marner or Nylander (11 to 7 million) = approx 12M to 18M
• TOTAL: 7.2 + 12 to 18M
  • 19.2M to 25.2M
• Take the upper 25.2M to retool or
• Plan for another rebuild if Matthews not re-signing but with new competent management group

I love how you have all the answers WRT guys who need to go, but have no idea who these incoming upgrades would be.
Who is this “competence” management team? What defines competent to you? Where are you finding a 2c a 2rd a 1g and depth in one offseason? Why do I feel like you’re playing nhl22 on your ps4

 

[PromisedLand]

Marner makes some good coin via red bull


I love how you have all the answers WRT guys who need to go, but have no idea who these incoming upgrades would be.
Who is this “competence” management team? What defines competent to you? Where are you finding a 2c a 2rd a 1g and depth in one offseason? Why do I feel like you’re playing nhl22 on your ps4

Dubas fanclub does not grabs the simplest of thing. If things are went from good to bad to worst and can go to disaster, you don't wait for them to go to disaster.

You don't pretend that "ohhh there is nobody there" so lets continue with the shit show and get to disaster.

You stop the bleeding, right "Now", worry about "who" later.

But then again I dont expect dubas fan club to see logic and reasoning because they blindly support the guy who has none in his dictionary or thought process.

As you were....

 

[Nylanderthal]

Dubas fanclub does not grabs the simplest of thing. If things are went from good to bad to worst and can go to disaster, you don't wait for them to go to disaster.

You don't pretend that "ohhh there is nobody there" so lets continue with the shit show and get to disaster.

You stop the bleeding, right "Now", worry about "who" later.

But then again I dont expect dubas fan club to see logic and reasoning because they blindly support the guy who has none in his dictionary or thought process.

As you were....

So instead of side tracking and going on a tangent about this supposed “fan club” why don’t you answer the points I raised in the reply to you?
What 2c, 2RD 1G and bottom 6 are you building with that little cap & the available players?
Who’s this new management team? Are we poaching yzerman, sakic, JBB? Or are we likely to hire a re-tread like shero, chuck fletcher or hextall?
You can’t just say “rah rah rah fire/trade/cut everyone they all suck” about a 115pt team, and simultaneously have no reasonable solutions and expect to be taken seriously

 

[Gabriel426]

Dubas fanclub does not grabs the simplest of thing. If things are went from good to bad to worst and can go to disaster, you don't wait for them to go to disaster.

You don't pretend that "ohhh there is nobody there" so lets continue with the shit show and get to disaster.

You stop the bleeding, right "Now", worry about "who" later.

But then again I dont expect dubas fan club to see logic and reasoning because they blindly support the guy who has none in his dictionary or thought process.

As you were....

Would Dubas fans club leave when Dubas leaves the Leafs?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Would Dubas fans club leave when Dubas leaves the Leafs?

Well I don’t consider myself one of his “fan boys” although I have been accused of being one I can confirm that my loyalty lies with the crest on the front and not with any manager coach or player.

 

[Gabriel426]

Well I don’t consider myself one of his “fan boys” although I have been accused of being one I can confirm that my loyalty lies with the crest on the front and not with any manager coach or player.

For the record, I don’t think you are one.

 

[Dreakmur]

How many tweaks are required?

Required? A couple. Ideally? Quite a few.

We need a good cycling winger to work with Tavares.
We need a 4C who can PK.
We need 2 bottom 6 wingers who play a simple meat-and-potatoes game.
We need a crease-clearing physically intimidating defenseman.
We need a starting goalie.
We need a back-up goalie.

We can probably win a round without addressing every one of those needs.

If Paul was the only change for the Leafs this past playoffs do they get past Tampa?

If Paul switches teams, yeah, we probably win.

Why wouldn't you run back the same line-up with a couple adjustments?

If there were good trades available, I'd move one of Marner or Nylander.... but I don't see any trades that make sense. That being the case, we should make adjustments around the core.

You would have to be in the River Nile, not to acknowledge that this latest version of the Leafs never folded to end this series. Rather they were sunk by a career depth player who scored his first two goals of the series in game 7, and has added 2 more in the 11 subsequent games.

I'm in for a return trip with these guys, with a couple minor adjustments on and off the ice.

I'm good with re-running with the core, but we need more than a couple of minor changes. Even if you just replace the goalies, that's not a minor adjustment.

 

[ULF_55]

If Paul switches teams, yeah, we probably win.

I'm good with re-running with the core, but we need more than a couple of minor changes. Even if you just replace the goalies, that's not a minor adjustment.

If making this one switch (Paul) would have been the difference that isn't a major change.

Again, I think and you suggest the difference was not large, between winning and losing that round.

You are correct that they need a goaltender, but I don't think I have heard anyone mention a good option in net.
Many names mentioned, but there isn't one that seems reasonable, either too rich, or unavailable.

What we need: Mike Palmateer - Aurora Sports Hall of Fame.

Mike began his professional career playing in the International Hockey League (IHL) for the Saginaw Gears and then advanced to the Central Hockey League, Oklahoma City Blazers, the farm club for the National Hockey League Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs were not doing well at the time and changes needed to be made. Their general manager, Jim Gregory made the call to Palmateer and told him he’d be starting for the Leafs in Detroit. In true Palmateer style, his now famous reply was “ Mr. Gregory, your goaltending troubles are over.”

Who is that person?

 

[Dreakmur]

If making this one switch (Paul) would have been the difference that isn't a major change.

Well, it's not just the add of Paul for us, but the removal of him from Tampa.

Again, I think and you suggest the difference was not large, between winning and losing that round.

Yes, I think we were close to Tampa in that series, but I also think they didn't play particularly well, especially 86 and 88.

You are correct that they need a goaltender, but I don't think I have heard anyone mention a good option in net.
Many names mentioned, but there isn't one that seems reasonable, either too rich, or unavailable.

Goaltending is the trickiest part. Not only do we have to unload Mrazek, but we have to sign two other goalies.