Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[Dirty Dog]

I do not see the third highest deal in the NHL for a D being team friendly. At best, it's market value and not regrettable on the back end.

At best it ends up being a good deal. While it would be the third highest now, it won’t be in a few years. And if Dahlin ends up a top 3 player, it’ll be below market value

 

[Jim Bob]

At best it ends up being a good deal. While it would be the third highest now, it won’t be in a few years. And if Dahlin ends up a top 3 player, it’ll be below market value

Most of the big money franchise D are already signed for term.

McAvoy is signed through 29-30.
Fox is signed through 28-29.
Makar is signed through 26-27.
Quinn Hughes is signed through 26-27.
Hamilton is signed through 27-28.

Hedman is a UFA in two years. That will be interesting. But, he's unlikely to top $10M AAV if he stays in TB.

And if he ends up being a top 3 D with a top 3 D AAV, that would be market value and not below market value.

 

[joshjull]

I am expanding the comparables beyond Makar & Fox on the one end and Doughty & Karlsson on the other.

I think Roman Josi is a great comparable for Dahlin's next deal. Especially when you look at how many UFA years that bought and the season he was having when he signed it.

Josi is not a good comparable for reasons that should be obvious. He signed for what he already was; A 29yr old 8yr vet who was good defensively and was a 15g 55pt producer. He also signed 4 years ago and before the pandemic. All of which has little relevance to Dahlin’s situation.

“The season he was having..” He only played 7gms at the start of that season. It played no role in his deal.

 

[Aladyyn]

Josi is not a good comparable for reasons that should be obvious. He signed for what he already was; A 29yr old 8yr vet who was good defensively and was a 15g 55pt producer. He also signed 4 years ago and before the pandemic. All of which has little relevance to Dahlin’s situation.

“The season he was having..” He only played 7gms at the start of that season. It played no role in his deal.

Are we still talking about Roman Josi?

 

[joshjull]

You will never find a perfect comparable to Dahlin as he is the only 23yo D who is two seasons away from UFA and looking at an extension that will cover 1 RFA year and the remainder will be UFA years.

You either get guys that are similar in age and have contracts that cover mostly RFA years, so people will say it is not much of a comparable.

Or, you get guys with a similar number of UFA years on their deals and people will say it is not much of a comparable due to the age difference.

You don’t need a perfect comparison. You just need player who is similar enough as a starting point and then you have fully flesh out the comparison. But for whatever reason you don’t do that.

 

[Jim Bob]

You don’t need a perfect comparison. You just need player who is similar enough as a starting point and then you have fully flesh out the comparison. But for whatever reason you don’t do that.

Who is the best comparable to Dahlin? Any player you pick will have huge holes in the comparison.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Who is the best comparable to Dahlin? Any player you pick will have huge holes in the comparison.

Here are the d-men 27 or under with cap hits of $8M+, a useful peer group for comparison to Dahlin.

Dahlin signed at 12% of the cap, a premium to every one of these players, would be $10.02M. Even $10.5M would be a significant overpayment. Anything beyond that would be dreadful cap management. Then there is the likelihood of a hometown discount for a star player who, by all indications, adores the city, his teammates, and the organization.

Given all that, $9.5M, an 11.4% cap hit, would seem more than generous. If structured similarly to his peers, his salary will be well in excess of $10M in the early years of his contract.

You brought me around, JB.

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Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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[elchud]

Ok. This will all make sense to me if I just pretend the cap won't be going up. So I'm gonna with that. 10.5 is a massive overpayment.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Ok. This will all make sense to me if I just pretend the cap won't be going up. So I'm gonna with that. 10.5 is a massive overpayment.

Okay, let's use the NHL's own numbers.

Its cap growth estimates for the next two seasons, 4.79% and 5.14%, are quite optimistic, having only been exceeded twice during the past 10 seasons (a couple of those admittedly anomalies we hope to never see again). Regardless, its rosy predictions would produce a cap of:

$83.5M x 1.0479 x 1.0514 = $92M for the 2025/26 season.

CF's Cap Hit % is calculated at the time of signing, but let's generously project Dahlin's next contract by Cap Hit % heading into that 2025/26 season, 2 years from now.

12%, exceeded only by Karlsson and Doughty among d-men: 0.12 x $92M = $11.04M

11.5%, slightly less than Werenski, Fox, and McAvoy: 0.115 x $92M = $10.58M

11%, the same as Makar and significantly above Sergachev and Heiskanen: 0.11 x $92M = $10.12M

Given the optimistic NHL cap growth estimate, generously calculating his Cap Hit % 2 years into the future using that estimate, and factoring in a likely home town discount, I don't see any possible way his AAV comes in much over $10M. And, again, about $9.5M seems more likely and fair to both parties.

We all want our all-star #1 stud d-man locked up for 8 more years, but let's consider the facts before throwing open the vault.

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Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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[HogtownSabresfan]

No Dahlin signing. Odds, Pegula doesn't want to front-load the contract today because the cost of money is so expensive today in an inflationary world. The average cap is just part of the story. The value of a front-loaded deal versus a back-loaded deal is phenomenally different today because of interest rates.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Or they're simply waiting for him to be in town before training camp to formally announce it with the press conference

 

[Gras]

No Dahlin signing. Odds, Pegula doesn't want to front-load the contract today because the cost of money is so expensive today in an inflationary world. The average cap is just part of the story. The value of a front-loaded deal versus a back-loaded deal is phenomenally different today because of interest rates.

I highly doubt Dahlin is going to take a backloaded deal, thats just bad financial planning.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Or they're simply waiting for him to be in town before training camp to formally announce it with the press conference

Stop being logical. The Pegulas are just cheap! They’d probably rather trade Dahlin than give him a raise!

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Stop being logical. The Pegulas are just cheap! They’d probably rather trade Dahlin than give him a raise!

Guys, I'm starting a GoFundMe for Terry. Please help a down-on-his-luck retiree sign our boy Rasmus.

 

[Gras]

Guys, I'm starting a GoFundMe for Terry. Please help a down-on-his-luck retiree sign our boy Rasmus.

View attachment 737405

How much cash reserves do you think he has?

 

[Ehran]

How much cash reserves do you think he has?

Limited.

He would simply draw upon a line of credit if he needed cash, and use interest gained on his investments to pay the LOC.

 

[MOGlLNY]

No Dahlin signing. Odds, Pegula doesn't want to front-load the contract today because the cost of money is so expensive today in an inflationary world. The average cap is just part of the story. The value of a front-loaded deal versus a back-loaded deal is phenomenally different today because of interest rates.

So we’ve reached that point in the off-season huh? unfortunate

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

So we’ve reached that point in the off-season huh? unfortunate

How about reaching that point last year when we were millions and millions below cap and didn’t make a move and played a lot of terrible D during injuries. When we didn’t use any of our cap room for picks — because it involved real money?

Unfortunately for small market teams like Buffalo, the hard cap in the NHL is proving to have some loopholes like LTIR.

The dynamics around front-loading the contract have changed dramatically — in favour of large market clubs. The value of a $10 M eight year deal is much much different than backloaded because of inflation.

This is the time Pegula said he would step up. He did just that previously with terrible contracts like Leino one.

It’s not 100% clear he has flipped on this but the aggressive money approach from when he first bought the team feels over.

There is a clear way to use his wealth effectively and not throw it away on crappy UFA’s like Leino. That’s what I’m asking for this year and was asking for last year.

We can save some cap money for rookie bonuses and it totally makes sense to be under cap by that amount — close to $10 M once Bryson is sent down. But that leaves $6 M plus without even considering another $1 M for Comrie.

If this is the team they ice when the season starts, sorry but the Sabres did not use the cap effectively and could have made some minor adds on one year deals to upgrade.

The difference was one point last year.

Okay, let's use the NHL's own numbers.

Its cap growth estimates for the next two seasons, 4.79% and 5.14%, are quite optimistic, having only been exceeded twice during the past 10 seasons (a couple of those admittedly anomalies we hope to never see again). Regardless, its rosy predictions would produce a cap of:

$83.5M x 1.0479 x 1.0514 = $92M for the 2025/26 season.

CF's Cap Hit % is calculated at the time of signing, but let's generously project Dahlin's next contract by Cap Hit % heading into that 2025/26 season, 2 years from now.

12%, exceeded only by Karlsson and Doughty among d-men: 0.12 x $92M = $11.04M

11.5%, slightly less than Werenski, Fox, and McAvoy: 0.115 x $92M = $10.58M

11%, the same as Makar and significantly above Sergachev and Heiskanen: 0.11 x $92M = $10.12M

Given the optimistic NHL cap growth estimate, generously calculating his Cap Hit % 2 years into the future using that estimate, and factoring in a likely home town discount, I don't see any possible way his AAV comes in much over $10M. And, again, about $9.5M seems more likely and fair to both parties.

We all want our all-star #1 stud d-man locked up for 8 more years, but let's consider the facts before throwing open the vault.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

View attachment 737382

Front-load contract to create more actual money, factoring inflation

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

I highly doubt Dahlin is going to take a backloaded deal, thats just bad financial planning.

At the end of the day, it is money. That's all. It's part of the negotiation. But the bottom line is it allows you to use real money and not impact your cap -- it's a loophole rich teams will use. Frankly, I do not like the backloaded deal because of buyout issues, not that I expect one with Dahlin at his age

 

[Fjordy]

Adams will pay Dahlin whatever Rasmus wants, Kevyn has no leverage.

 

[Guy Tetreault]

Adams will pay Dahlin whatever Rasmus wants, Kevyn has no leverage.

12.5 Millions x 8 = 100 Millions

 

[Fjordy]

12.5 Millions x 8 = 100 Millions

Well I hope Rasmus is a little more humble and doesn't act like some Toronto stars.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Nvm

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Adams will pay Dahlin whatever Rasmus wants, Kevyn has no leverage.

That is false. They do control him for two years. He also has an injury risk to consider. Like any player. Guaranteed money is worth something.

 

[Fjordy]

That is false. They do control him for two years. He also has an injury risk to consider. Like any player. Guaranteed money is worth something.

Well, players often take risks, this phrase about the risk of injury is already like a cliché. Players are betting on themselves and if Dahlin has an even better season, especially when it comes to points, he will easily get 10+. But I hope he will sign now, even if it is 10-10.5 million.