Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[BowieSabresFan]

And? The Sabres have loads of players that will need raises moving forward, as well.

The average of the top 5 D cap hits today is $10.22M.

The average of the top 10 D cap hits today is $9.69M.

The average cap hit of the past 4 Norris winners is $9.76M.

Of the top 10 cap hits on D, only two (Werenski & Nurse) have not had at least one season where they were in the top 5 in Norris voting.

Two things, I believe a lot of folk consider the Norris voting last year to be a bit silly. Dahlin should have been in the top 3, much less the top 5, so while you are technically correct I'm not sure how much mileage you should be getting with that particular argument.

Second, are you suggesting that Dahlin shouldn't be one of the top 10 paid D in the league? He's certainly one of the top 10 D skill wise, if not one of the top 5.

I'd say paying him around 8 x 10m would be a pretty fair deal. He's only 23, and pretty likely to only get better.

 

[dortt]

And? The Sabres have loads of players that will need raises moving forward, as well.

The average of the top 5 D cap hits today is $10.22M.

The average of the top 10 D cap hits today is $9.69M.

The average cap hit of the past 4 Norris winners is $9.76M.

Of the top 10 cap hits on D, only two (Werenski & Nurse) have not had at least one season where they were in the top 5 in Norris voting.

Blind voters should not have any bearing on Dahlin's contract

One had to be blind to not see Dahlin as a top 5 defenseman last year

 

[Jim Bob]

Blind voters should not have any bearing on Dahlin's contract

One had to be blind to not see Dahlin as a top 5 defenseman last year

Or perhaps the Norris voters are not looking at Dahlin's season through blue & gold glasses and have a more objective view on how good he was last season.

Two things, I believe a lot of folk consider the Norris voting last year to be a bit silly. Dahlin should have been in the top 3, much less the top 5, so while you are technically correct I'm not sure how much mileage you should be getting with that particular argument.

Second, are you suggesting that Dahlin shouldn't be one of the top 10 paid D in the league? He's certainly one of the top 10 D skill wise, if not one of the top 5.

I'd say paying him around 8 x 10m would be a pretty fair deal. He's only 23, and pretty likely to only get better.

Given what his resume has been to date and the salary structure of the team now and moving forward, I think an extension in the $9-9.5MAAV range is fair, $10M is a slight overpay, and $11M is a larger overpay.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Or perhaps the Norris voters are not looking at Dahlin's season through blue & gold glasses and have a more objective view on how good he was last season.




Given what his resume has been to date and the salary structure of the team now and moving forward, I think an extension in the $9-9.5MAAV range is fair, $10M is a slight overpay, and $11M is a larger overpay.

Based on scoring and advanced stats you could make a pretty effective argument that he was top 5 last year, if not top 3. I'm surprised you went with the homer argument.

So 8 x 10m is pretty fair to me.

 

[Jim Bob]

Based on scoring and advanced stats you could make a pretty effective argument that he was top 5 last year, if not top 3. I'm surprised you went with the homer argument.

So 8 x 10m is pretty fair to me.

He was 5th in Pts/GP last season among D. But, he was 15th in 5v5 Pts/60.

And there are more some advanced stats where Power looks better than Dahlin did.

Dahlin is in that top 5-10 range and because he is a former 1OV pick and he finally had that franchise 1D season, I think people are going a little overboard when it comes to the contract when you compare what the market has been for other franchise 1Ds recently.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

He was 5th in Pts/GP last season among D. But, he was 15th in 5v5 Pts/60.

And there are more some advanced stats where Power looks better than Dahlin did.

Dahlin is in that top 5-10 range and because he is a former 1OV pick and he finally had that franchise 1D season, I think people are going a little overboard when it comes to the contract when you compare what the market has been for other franchise 1Ds recently.

Again, you can make a very effective argument that he was top 5 last year that has nothing to do with being a Sabres homer. That's a pretty weak counter-argument.

I'd say he's in the 3-5 range now, and that 10m per year is pretty fair, if it's for 8 years. Obviously, I'd love to sign him for 8 years for less.

I'll leave it at that.

 

[Jim Bob]

Again, you can make a very effective argument that he was top 5 last year that has nothing to do with being a Sabres homer. That's a pretty weak counter-argument.

I'd say he's in the 3-5 range now, and that 10m per year is pretty fair, if it's for 8 years. Obviously, I'd love to sign him for 8 years for less.

I'll leave it at that.

The main arguments I have seen have been "Norris voters have vision issues" or "Krueger sucks" and not a real nuanced conversation that compares what Dahlin brought to the table last season in comparison to others in that top 5-10 conversation.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

The main arguments I have seen have been "Norris voters have vision issues" or "Krueger sucks" and not a real nuanced conversation that compares what Dahlin brought to the table last season in comparison to others in that top 5-10 conversation.

Your strongest argument against is the Norris vote last year, and that's not a super strong one. I think you could find a lot of non-Sabres fans that think he had a top 5 season last year. And, in fact, advanced stats comparing him to Fox and Makar have been posted on HFBoards.

I've always found the homer argument a lazy, and slightly insulting one.

And I will definitely leave it there.

 

[TageGod]

The main arguments I have seen have been "Norris voters have vision issues" or "Krueger sucks" and not a real nuanced conversation that compares what Dahlin brought to the table last season in comparison to others in that top 5-10 conversation.

Kreuger definitely damaged the overall reputation of a lot of Sabres players (performance wise). Norris was always going to the top offensive scorer unfortunately. There were up to 5 defensemen who deserved norris more than EK, one of which is Dahlin.

 

[Jim Bob]

Your strongest argument against is the Norris vote last year, and that's not a super strong one. I think you could find a lot of non-Sabres fans that think he had a top 5 season last year. And, in fact, advanced stats comparing him to Fox and Makar have been posted on HFBoards.

I've always found the homer argument a lazy, and slightly insulting one.

And I will definitely leave it there.

It is super easy to cherry pick stats to back up any argument you want to make.

And it's not the Norris voting last year, it is the entirety of Dahlin's career to date. Last season was the first season where he played like many expected him to for a full season. Yet, some people want to give him an extension that is one of the three largest contracts ever to a D before he's won a Norris, finished in the top 5 of Norris voting, finished top 5 in the end of season All Star voting, or even played in a playoff game.

 

[Aladyyn]

The main arguments I have seen have been "Norris voters have vision issues" or "Krueger sucks" and not a real nuanced conversation that compares what Dahlin brought to the table last season in comparison to others in that top 5-10 conversation.

The easy argument is that he's the only guy who's genuinely elite at both ends of the ice

 

[Jim Bob]

The easy argument is that he's the only guy who's genuinely elite at both ends of the ice

How do you measure "elite in the defensive zone"?

Personally, I do not believe that Dahlin is elite in the defensive zone. He is above average in the defensive zone and elite in the defensive zone if you narrow things down to D that are above average or better offensively.

With Dahlin, if you want to use metrics to measure his defensive impact, the key would be to look at his defensive numbers with and without Samuelsson.

 

[HOOats]

I'll be thrilled if we get Dahlin under contract for 8x10. I don't care if it would be unprecedented relative to Norris voting.

At the same time, I think Dahlin slotted in about where he should have in Norris voting. He led the entire league in minor penalties, many of the lazy, poorly timed variety. None of the other top D were even close while also logging huge minutes. We probably make the playoffs if he reduced his penalties by 20% (along many other things). There's still a lot of growth left in his game, which is encouraging to me. But he wasn't the best defenseman in the league last year.

 

[dortt]

The main arguments I have seen have been "Norris voters have vision issues" or "Krueger sucks" and not a real nuanced conversation that compares what Dahlin brought to the table last season in comparison to others in that top 5-10 conversation.

Please don't tell me you are defending Ralphus, who EVERYONE sucked under

 

[Fjordy]

The easy argument is that he's the only guy who's genuinely elite at both ends of the ice

THIS

He was better defensively than guys like Fox, Makar and even more so EK 65, but he was also good offensively like those guys and seems to be even better than Makar last season.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Interesting comparing Dahlin's potential contract as an overpayment compared to Fox and Makar who signed their deals 2 years ago. Weak argument too tbh

 

[TehDoak]

I mean, there is an obvious difference between the Fox/Makar deals and the long rumored Dahlin deal (8x10)

The Fox/Makar deals came off the players ELC.

So there are only 3-4 years of UFA time ate up.

The going rate for an elite D-man as a UFA is 11 (Doughty) to 11.5 (Karlsson)

The going RFA bridge rate for a top pair d-man is 6M (Dahlin, McAvoy). It's to say above that because elite d-men have been getting locked long term rather than bridged lately.

In Makar's case, he signed an 6 year deal at the age of 22 for 9M per (54M total)

That means he ate 4 RFA (7.5M x 4= 30) years and 2 UFA years (12M x 2 = 24). 30+24=54

Fox signed a 7 year, 66.5M total deal. He had 3 RFA years left.

RFA years: 7.5 x 3 = 22.5 and 11 x 4 = 22.5 + 44M = 66.5

Seeing a pattern here?

Dahlin's deal will eat 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years.

Based on Makar's and Fox's deal structure

1 year at 7.5 + 7 years at 11-12M (77-84M)

A fair market value deal for Dahlin is 84.5-91.5

An 8 x 10 deal for a top 10 D-man with only 1 RFA year left would be a below market deal

 

[Jim Bob]

Please don't tell me you are defending Ralphus, who EVERYONE sucked under

I'm not defending him in the least. I just am not buying that Dahlin should get more money because he had to play under him, either.

 

[Jim Bob]

I mean, there is an obvious difference between the Fox/Makar deals and the long rumored Dahlin deal (8x10)

The Fox/Makar deals came off the players ELC.

So there are only 3-4 years of UFA time ate up.

The going rate for an elite D-man as a UFA is 11 (Doughty) to 11.5 (Karlsson)

The going RFA bridge rate for a top pair d-man is 6M (Dahlin, McAvoy). It's to say above that because elite d-men have been getting locked long term rather than bridged lately.

In Makar's case, he signed an 6 year deal at the age of 22 for 9M per (54M total)

That means he ate 4 RFA (7.5M x 4= 30 years and 2 UFA years (12M x 2 = 24). 30+24=54

Fox signed a 7 year, 66.5M total deal. He had 3 RFA years left.

RFA years: 7.5 x 3 = 22.5 and 11 x 4 = 22.5 + 44M = 66.5

Seeing a pattern here?

Dahlin's deal will eat 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years.

Based on Makar's and Fox's deal structure

1 year at 7.5 + 7 years at 11-12M (77-84M)

A fair market value deal for Dahlin is 84.5-91.5

An 8 x 10 deal for a top 10 D-man with only 1 RFA year left would be an absolute steal.

Doughty and Karlsson are not the going rate for UFA years for franchise D.

They are the top end.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Josi getting 11.12% of the cap early in his 2019-20 season where he put up 65 points in 69 GP is a solid comparable to where Dahlin is today.

 

[Gras]

I mean, there is an obvious difference between the Fox/Makar deals and the long rumored Dahlin deal (8x10)

The Fox/Makar deals came off the players ELC.

So there are only 3-4 years of UFA time ate up.

The going rate for an elite D-man as a UFA is 11 (Doughty) to 11.5 (Karlsson)

The going RFA bridge rate for a top pair d-man is 6M (Dahlin, McAvoy). It's to say above that because elite d-men have been getting locked long term rather than bridged lately.

In Makar's case, he signed an 6 year deal at the age of 22 for 9M per (54M total)

That means he ate 4 RFA (7.5M x 4= 30) years and 2 UFA years (12M x 2 = 24). 30+24=54

Fox signed a 7 year, 66.5M total deal. He had 3 RFA years left.

RFA years: 7.5 x 3 = 22.5 and 11 x 4 = 22.5 + 44M = 66.5

Seeing a pattern here?

Dahlin's deal will eat 1 RFA year and 7 UFA years.

Based on Makar's and Fox's deal structure

1 year at 7.5 + 7 years at 11-12M (77-84M)

A fair market value deal for Dahlin is 84.5-91.5

An 8 x 10 deal for a top 10 D-man with only 1 RFA year left would be a below market deal

Shouldn't you be looking at Cap % not raw dollars

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I'm not defending him in the least. I just am not buying that Dahlin should get more money because he had to play under him, either.

The argument is that Ralph derailed his development. Don't think there can be any dispute about that.

That doesn't boost his contract value, however. Agreed on that.

Shouldn't you be looking at Cap % not raw dollars

Is that how contracts are negotiated these days? Serious question. I plead ignorance.

 

[HOOats]

Shouldn't you be looking at Cap % not raw dollars

The cap was lower when those deals were signed, so it would only help his argument (increasing Dahlin's cap hit) to take a percentage of the now-higher cap. Especially considering projected caps of 87.5 and 92 in the years following this. I still have no idea why Dahlin would sign anything this summer.

The argument is that Ralph derailed his development. Don't think there can be any dispute about that.

That doesn't boost his contract value, however. Agreed on that.

It kind of should boost his contract value though, because his career track has a strange shape largely due to Krueger's influence. His track record isn't as spotless as it might otherwise have been with better coaching for those two years (even though he's still the 9th in all-time U23 points by a D). Yet even though he was mishandled, he has arrived as the player he is at present, albeit with a more steep improvement curve than would otherwise be expected from the top young D in the game and rewarded thusly.

 

[Aladyyn]

How do you measure "elite in the defensive zone"?

Personally, I do not believe that Dahlin is elite in the defensive zone. He is above average in the defensive zone and elite in the defensive zone if you narrow things down to D that are above average or better offensively.

With Dahlin, if you want to use metrics to measure his defensive impact, the key would be to look at his defensive numbers with and without Samuelsson.

That's the thing, they don't change away from Samuelsson

 

[Gras]

The argument is that Ralph derailed his development. Don't think there can be any dispute about that.

That doesn't boost his contract value, however. Agreed on that.


Is that how contracts are negotiated these days? Serious question. I plead ignorance.

Same concept as adjusting for inflation almost.

When Doughty signed the cap was 81.5 so his cap % was 13.5% that % of the current cap is 11.2725 Mil

With the cap rumored to be 87.7 in 24-25 11.84mil would be the equivalent cap hit

Makar was 10.9% when he signed so in 24-25 that would be 9.56 Mil

12.36 Mil would give Dahlin the same % as EK got when he signed his contract

10.08 would match McAvoy

 

[Jim Bob]

FWIW, AFP Analytics have a Dahlin extension at 7 years and $9.09M AAV (10.39% of the cap). That is slightly less than they projected for Aho. Aho actually signed for 8 years @ $9.75M AAV (11.68%).