Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)

[Selanne00008]

FWIW, AFP Analytics have a Dahlin extension at 7 years and $9.09M AAV (10.39% of the cap). That is slightly less than they projected for Aho. Aho actually signed for 8 years @ $9.75M AAV (11.68%).

Interesting.

Kinda like how ESPN might "project" in an auction league that Josh Allen will go for $35 dollars. But, in realty across real fantasy drafts he's going for an average of $41.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I would give him 8/88 and not think twice if that's what it took to sign him right now.

That doesn't even start until 2024-2025 when contracts will continue to rise anyway.

 

[Matt Ress]

Are we still debating on Dahlin's goodness? Just give the guy a smooth Sabres gel pen, sign K. Adams at the bottom and let him fill in the blanks like Mad Libs

 

[Dingo44]

Dahlin's deal will be for 8 years and over $10 million a year and it will end up a great deal. Not sure why we're still arguing. I'm sure it's just waiting for his signature.

 

[joshjull]

Doughty and Karlsson are not the going rate for UFA years for franchise D.

They are the top end.

Josi getting 11.12% of the cap early in his 2019-20 season where he put up 65 points in 69 GP is a solid comparable to where Dahlin is today.

Why are you framing things in such a dishonest way?

Josi signed that extension at the end of October 2019. The production you’re referencing is from the 19-20 season, which hadn’t happened yet. It clearly has no bearing on the extension.

An accurate comparison of pre extension seasons would be

Josi —-> 82gms 15g 56pts (18-19 season)
Dahlin -> 78gms 15g 73pts

Josi was also 29yrs old at the time he signed the extension. Dahlin is only 23yrs old.

Its not much of a comparable at all.

 

[Panthaz89]

That's the thing, they don't change away from Samuelsson

we should just evaluate how everyone would play with Bryson therefore every defenseman in the NHL is bad at defense because their partner is bad.

 

[joshjull]

He was 5th in Pts/GP last season among D. But, he was 15th in 5v5 Pts/60.

And there are more some advanced stats where Power looks better than Dahlin did.

Dahlin is in that top 5-10 range and because he is a former 1OV pick and he finally had that franchise 1D season, I think people are going a little overboard when it comes to the contract when you compare what the market has been for other franchise 1Ds recently.

Is that the same market where Seth Jones/Darnell Nurse signed higher AAV deals than Makar? Or the one where Dougie Hamilton signed for the same AAV? They all signed their deals in the 2021 offseason as did a few other big names.

UFA years bought play a big role in a players contract and AAV. It’s why those lesser players make as much or more than Makar does. It will be the same for Dahlin. He doesn’t need to be better or even as good as Makar to make more than he does. Not when a 8yr deal for him is buying up 7 UFA years, compared to Makar’s 6yr deal with 2 UFA yrs bought.

You’re comparing Dahlin to Makar and ignoring this contex.

 

[Jim Bob]

Is that the same market where Seth Jones/Darnell Nurse signed higher AAV deals than Makar? Or the one where Dougie Hamilton signed for the same AAV? They all signed their deals in the 2021 offseason as did a few other big names.

UFA years bought play a big role in a players contract and AAV. It’s why those lesser players make as much or more than Makar does. It will be the same for Dahlin. He doesn’t need to be better or even as good as Makar to make more than he does. Not when a 8yr deal for him is buying up 7 UFA years, compared to Makar’s 6yr deal with 2 UFA yrs bought.

You’re comparing Dahlin to Makar and ignoring this contex.

I am expanding the comparables beyond Makar & Fox on the one end and Doughty & Karlsson on the other.

I think Roman Josi is a great comparable for Dahlin's next deal. Especially when you look at how many UFA years that bought and the season he was having when he signed it.

 

[Jim Bob]

Why are you framing things in such a dishonest way?

Josi signed that extension at the end of October 2019. The production you’re referencing is from the 19-20 season, which hadn’t happened yet. It clearly has no bearing on the extension.

An accurate comparison of pre extension seasons would be

Josi —-> 82gms 15g 56pts (18-19 season)
Dahlin -> 78gms 15g 73pts

Josi was also 29yrs old at the time he signed the extension. Dahlin is only 23yrs old.

Its not much of a comparable at all.

October 2019 is early in the 2019-20 season. He had 2g 4a 6pts in 7GP when he signed that extension.

You will never find a perfect comparable to Dahlin as he is the only 23yo D who is two seasons away from UFA and looking at an extension that will cover 1 RFA year and the remainder will be UFA years.

You either get guys that are similar in age and have contracts that cover mostly RFA years, so people will say it is not much of a comparable.

Or, you get guys with a similar number of UFA years on their deals and people will say it is not much of a comparable due to the age difference.

Just because Dahlin is younger than almost all D who have contracts covering UFA years does not mean that giving him one of the 3 biggest D contracts in the NHL is a market deal given his career trajectory to date and the team's contract structure.

 

[debaser66]

No

And I’m also not seeing all the other “xxx is going to hit super hero status” takes that people are throwing around. Josh Allen and Tage Thompson have broken the reality meter around here.

Dahlin has always been tier higher than Thompson, he is already a top5 player on his position and was just slowed down because of injury and not enough depth on D. He can easily be 1st in D scoring next year while Thompson will be more like top 10 to 15.

 

[elchud]

We are going to have him on an 8 year deal while he is 24-32 years old. It couldn't be more ideal.

Somewhere between 10 and 12. More than Eichel. 10.5 is my prediction and that is absolutely a team friendly deal.

 

[TageGod]

A lot of people seem to be expecting a regression from Thompson.

 

[Jim Bob]

We are going to have him on an 8 year deal while he is 24-32 years old. It couldn't be more ideal.

Somewhere between 10 and 12. More than Eichel. 10.5 is my prediction and that is absolutely a team friendly deal.

I do not see the third highest deal in the NHL for a D being team friendly. At best, it's market value and not regrettable on the back end.

 

[BUCKSHOT]

A lot of people seem to be expecting a regression from Thompson.

I don't think regression is correct, I think Tage will see more attention from the opposing teams top D pair and their checking line

and while I'm in the Dahlin thread, my guess is 9.5 per

 

[debaser66]

A lot of people seem to be expecting a regression from Thompson.

I dont expect any regression in his overall stats but I think he has already reached his ceiling offensively, I would like to see a growth in his overall game tough and at the dot next year.
He is already a wonderful story.
But Dahlin has still room in his ozone game, he could easily be around 80 to 90pts.
Not every year but I think he will reach it once or twice.
People forget that he is a lot younger than Makar, was in the league in his draft year and had a negative coach on a bottom dweller.
Last year was the first he started to shine.
Thompson struggled a bit once teams concentrated more on him and probably also because of his injury.
Dahlin seems to be a lot harder to contain also due to his position and time on the ice.

 

[zuikan]

A lot of people seem to be expecting a regression from Thompson.

I don't. He has the tools to reach McDavid level after another year or so. Tage is a slow-cooker.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't. He has the tools to reach McDavid level after another year or so. Tage is a slow-cooker.

I am optimistic about how Tage will play the next 4-5 years.

But, I do not think anyone in the entire NHL is even coming close to McDavid anytime soon. He is in a tier all to himself.

 

[Faceboner]

I am optimistic about how Tage will play the next 4-5 years.

But, I do not think anyone in the entire NHL is even coming close to McDavid anytime soon. He is in a tier all to himself.

The only one is Bedard but I could see Thompson getting into that Mackinnon tier if it all goes right

 

[Jim Bob]

The only one is Bedard but I could see Thompson getting into that Mackinnon tier if it all goes right

Let's see Bedard play some NHL games before saying he can get anywhere near McDavid's level.

 

[Faceboner]

Let's see Bedard play some NHL games before saying he can get anywhere near McDavid's level.

He is the only conceivable option I should have said he has the iq and drive but also lacks speed and size

 

[elchud]

I do not see the third highest deal in the NHL for a D being team friendly. At best, it's market value and not regrettable on the back end.

Look at the Werenski SJones Nurse deals. Dahlin is significantly better of course. And the contract for Dahlin is for the entirety of his prime. He could make 12.5 on the open market right now.

Of course I'm factoring in the cap rising significantly, after being stagnant, in saying it is a team friendly deal. The past 6 years the average cap has been around 81.5 million. For the 8 years of Dahlins deal the average will be 95 to 100 million. Like it or not that I'd something that every agent worth a damn knows.

The Eichel deal I thought was *not* team friendly. Neither was the RoR deal. Compare Dahlin at 10 5 for those two.

 

[elchud]

I thought if Tage could score 200 goals over that 7 year deal it would be worth the contract. Now, that would be a major disappointment.

He's gonna be 26 soon. Star forwards don't hit their peak that late, but Tage is unique in very many ways.

I think it a stretch to think he can average a goal every two years, the next seven years. If he does, he is in Stamkos/Pasta territory, and is a borderline hall of famer. That would put him at between 375 and 400 goals at the end of his contract.

If he does slip in production for whatever reasons, seeing his skillset, he isn't dipping below 30 to 35 goals a game. And that would be a disappointment based on what we have seen, but outstanding value for the contract.

 

[sabremike]

I don't think regression is correct, I think Tage will see more attention from the opposing teams top D pair and their checking line

and while I'm in the Dahlin thread, my guess is 9.5 per

 

[Matt Ress]

I thought if Tage could score 200 goals over that 7 year deal it would be worth the contract. Now, that would be a major disappointment.

He's gonna be 26 soon. Star forwards don't hit their peak that late, but Tage is unique in very many ways.

I think it a stretch to think he can average a goal every two years, the next seven years. If he does, he is in Stamkos/Pasta territory, and is a borderline hall of famer. That would put him at between 375 and 400 goals at the end of his contract.

If he does slip in production for whatever reasons, seeing his skillset, he isn't dipping below 30 to 35 goals a game. And that would be a disappointment based on what we have seen, but outstanding value for the contract.

I guarantee it will be somewhere between a goal every two years and 30 goals a game

 

[brian_griffin]

I don't. He has the tools to reach McDavid level after another year or so. Tage is a slow-cooker.

I don't think Tage can handle / control the puck with speed / at speed as well as McDavid, although Tage is no slouch, and is the Sabres best player going 1-on-N weaving though defenders.
I don't think Tage is anywhere near as fluid and tenacious with the puck as McDavid is.
I agree Tage has room to grow (pun intended). I think it's more on the defensive side / 200-foot game, but that's not to say he lacks offensive upside. HIs release and ability to extend his reach and use his body to protect the puck from a defender / defender's stick to deflect such a shot is world-class. His one-timer is world-class.

When Tage is used more up high on the PK and starts getting highlight short-handers like McDavid, I'll move closer to the comparison.