Risk/reward is the premise of all things in life. Rolling the dice has upside but there is always risk. You cannot say there is none. It's real.
Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)
- Thread starter Orange Fanta
- Start date
Risk/reward is the premise of all things in life. Rolling the dice has upside but there is always risk. You cannot say there is none. It's real.
Fjordy
Registered User
- Jun 20, 2018
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- 9,131
Of course, there is always a risk, but we also don't know Dahlin's thoughts and we don't know how much Adams is willing to offer him.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
There really is no reason Dahlin should not be #3 on every list
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Heiskanen is the only guy ahead of Dahlin in the rankings where I struggle with the logic as to why he is ahead of Dahlin.
joshjull
Registered User
@Jim Bob
I don‘t know why you have such a hard on about Dahlin getting 10mil or more. I don’t think your take on the market is very good or well fleshed out. You also don‘t give Dahlin enough credit for the player he is vs who you’re comparing him to. Certainly not at the same point of their careers.
I’ll use 3 guys from the 2021 offseason to make my point.
1) Fox ———> 7yr at 9.5mil per deal (3 RFA/4 UFA)
2) Werenski -> 6yrs at 9.583mil AAV (1 RFA/5 UFA)
3) McAvoy —> 6yrs at 9.5mil AAV (1 RFA/5 UFA)
1) Fox signed his ELC at 21yrs old. He signed his big extension after his D+4 and D+5 seasons and at the same age Dahlin is now. Dahlin’s last two seasons are his D+4/D+5 and are on par with Fox’s.
Dahlin signing for 8yrs 10mil is very much in line with the market , maybe a tad low. It would only be a 500k higher AAV than Fox but have 3 more UFA years bought and signed two offseasons later. Also in a much health NHL economic environment.
2) Werenski/McAvoy were in a similar situation to the one Dahlin is in now. But they both got 6yr deals not 8yrs. Had they gone to 8yrs they’d have easily gotten 10.5mil to 11mil for those extra 2 UFA years bought.
Dahlin signing for only 500K or so more two years later on a two year longer contract buying two more UFA years seems quite in line with the market to me.
Having said the above, Dahlin may not sign a 8yr deal or choose not to push his leverage to the max. But the market is there for him to get a 10mil or more AAV on a 8yr deal.
I don‘t know why you have such a hard on about Dahlin getting 10mil or more. I don’t think your take on the market is very good or well fleshed out. You also don‘t give Dahlin enough credit for the player he is vs who you’re comparing him to. Certainly not at the same point of their careers.
I’ll use 3 guys from the 2021 offseason to make my point.
1) Fox ———> 7yr at 9.5mil per deal (3 RFA/4 UFA)
2) Werenski -> 6yrs at 9.583mil AAV (1 RFA/5 UFA)
3) McAvoy —> 6yrs at 9.5mil AAV (1 RFA/5 UFA)
1) Fox signed his ELC at 21yrs old. He signed his big extension after his D+4 and D+5 seasons and at the same age Dahlin is now. Dahlin’s last two seasons are his D+4/D+5 and are on par with Fox’s.
Dahlin signing for 8yrs 10mil is very much in line with the market , maybe a tad low. It would only be a 500k higher AAV than Fox but have 3 more UFA years bought and signed two offseasons later. Also in a much health NHL economic environment.
2) Werenski/McAvoy were in a similar situation to the one Dahlin is in now. But they both got 6yr deals not 8yrs. Had they gone to 8yrs they’d have easily gotten 10.5mil to 11mil for those extra 2 UFA years bought.
Dahlin signing for only 500K or so more two years later on a two year longer contract buying two more UFA years seems quite in line with the market to me.
Having said the above, Dahlin may not sign a 8yr deal or choose not to push his leverage to the max. But the market is there for him to get a 10mil or more AAV on a 8yr deal.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
I think @Deep Blue Metallic covered it:
Player Discussion - Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)
I do not see the third highest deal in the NHL for a D being team friendly. At best, it's market value and not regrettable on the back end. At best it ends up being a good deal. While it would be the third highest now, it won’t be in a few years. And if Dahlin ends up a top 3 player, it’ll...
Player Discussion - Rasmus Dahlin Part 4 - D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)
I do not see the third highest deal in the NHL for a D being team friendly. At best, it's market value and not regrettable on the back end. At best it ends up being a good deal. While it would be the third highest now, it won’t be in a few years. And if Dahlin ends up a top 3 player, it’ll...
I won't freak out if Dahlin signs for the 8x$10M AAV deal that Chad D predicted pre-July 1st. I just won't describe that deal as team friendly, as some have suggested. I believe that would be slightly above market for a D who has never finished top 5 in Norris voting and who some media outlets have as outside the top 5 D in the NHL today.
Yes, Dahlin could perform in the future as a regular Norris top 3 vote getter. But, he hasn't done that yet. So, an 8x$10M deal wouldn't be team friendly especially when you compare it to the Thompson deal.
If a GM is basing his contact decisions on what the media thinks or votes he should be fired immediately. What a crazy argument.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
How about basing it off of what analytics people say should be his contract?
AFP Analytics project a Dahlin extension as 7x$9.088M AAV and I believe someone posted that EH projected him to get closer to $9M than $10M AAV on a long term extension.
The subtle diss at EK being the 7th best after winning the Norris.
The Sabres have their own very well regarded analytics team - one that has access to data that the media and guys on the web don't have.
But besides that - it's common sense. Maybe you're overthinking this. Dahlin is our best player - and more impactful to the Sabres than Eichel ever was. It's 2023. I'd expect at least an 8/$80 million dollar contract, and there is nothing wrong with it. I couldn't care less how high he was voted for the Norris or what some website ranks him in regards to other defensemen. Also, contracts go up in all sports. Josh Allen was the 2nd highest paid QB in the NFL until he wasn't. Crosby got the top contract until he didn't. McDavid makes the most per year right now until they announce the Matthews extension. It's the way of the world.
We just watched BRANDON HAGEL get $6.5 a year for 8 years! If Dahlin makes $9 or $9.5 or $10 or $10.5 million a year it's still for 8 years for a guy who's still young and getting better and will be his prime the entire time and will be our best defenseman and will be an offensive horse on the blueline - not to mention he's physical and plays with an edge, he's a great leader, and he loves being a Sabre. He could get $11 million a year and I'd be OK with it.
BowieSabresFan
Registered User
- Nov 18, 2010
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Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Dahlin being their best player does not mean that $10M or $11M or any other number is fair market price or a team friendly number.
It all has to be in context of where Dahlin sits throughout the league.
Sabres fans have a very different opinion on where Dahlin sits with respect to other franchise #1 D around the league when compared to what people outside of Buffalo do.
Dahlin is in range of the 6th-8th best D in the league by most league-wide measures. As such, a long term deal around $9.5M would be market value (and the public analytics contract projections are a widely accepted measure of the fair market price) and under $9M would be what I would consider a team friendly deal.
It is fair to have the opinion that paying Dahlin more than what the public models suggest is the fair market price is all well and good. I just do not believe that you can say that paying him $500k to a $1M more per year than what the public models suggest counts as a team friendly deal.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
Hedman and Josi are only there on reputation and McAvoy because they needed someone from the Bruins I suppose
Exactly. Name the guy you'd trade for Dahlin straight up in this list. For me it's only Makar.
Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
In my eyes it goes 1. Makar 2. Fox 3. Dahlin and then everyone else
joshjull
Registered User
How good a player is relative to his peers is just the starting point. Then other things are factored in like...... how many RFA years? How many UFA years bought? How long is the deal overall? Age can play a role as well if they're young enough to have potential upside rolled into their deal.
These things play a big role, yet you keep ignoring them. But they're why Seth Jones has the same cap hit as Fox. It's also why Werenski has the 3rd highest cap hit and not Makar who is 9th.
In your analysis I guess the market froze back in 2021. Lucky for the owners NHL contracts will be the only part of the economy not hit by inflation. Then there is the impact of the "flat" cap era being over. Something that had an impacted on those 2021 deals. Not sure it was a ton but it wasn't zero.
Models are only as good as their inputs.
1) Does that model, parse RFA yrs vs UFA yrs, the amount of UFA yrs bought the length of the deal, etc.? This is why I brought up Werenski/McAvoy in my previous post. They signed for 6yrs instead of 8. Its what worked best for both sides. But there is no way they're not somewhere between 10-11mil if they had signed a 8yr deal. Which makes Dahlin at 8yrs 10mil per look good.
2) How do they factor in NHL production? For example, Dahlin has played in the NHL for all 5 of his post draft seasons. Whereas Fox only played his D+4 and D+5 season before signing (College for the first 3). Dahlin's D+4/D+5 seasons have slightly better production than Fox on a much worse team. But would Dahlin effectively be punished and have his overall production in the model lowered due to his first 3 years? It shouldn't and won't in a real negotiation, but it may in the model depending on how it was set up.
3) What is the sample this model even uses? They're not many dmen to use in this category.
As I said previously, he may take less per year on a shorter deal or just take a team friendly deal like the 9-9.5mil you suggest. But Dahlin has a fairly straightforward argument for a 8x10 deal.
Would it? The price of those D is about 9.5M but they're older, and signed for less years. If Dahlin signs an 8 year contract the comparable would be more.
Willgamesh
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- Jan 31, 2019
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Same, and even that is debatable with Dahlin being younger and playing on a worse team.
buffalowing88
Registered User
TheMistyStranger
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