Exactly it's actual proven performance by who is already an established top pairing Dman that can log 20+ minutes and net 40+ points who is in his prime. Not to mention his insanely cap friendly contract that can be made even more friendly with retention VS a young potential top line player who still has to take steps to reach that potential. With Marner he's under control for at least another 6 seasons I believe which is obviously a huge plus.
One of the biggest problems with rhis site as a whole. Potential is valued more than established talent because they aren't in their early 20s. Time and time again this thought process is proven wrong when actual NHL trades go down.
Marner has a ton of potential, but a lot of it is exactly that - potential.
Obviously, he has high value and I would love for him or a player like him to be the centerpiece of a Rangers trade. But I also don't think he's a guy who projects as potentially the premier right wing or center of his generation. He's certainly in that higher category of young players who could be very good for the next decade - but it's also not exactly like he was the top pick in the 2015 draft and head and shoulders above some of his peers.
If we're being honest, even within his own (2015) draft class, there's arguably four players that project higher than him, and another four who he's right in the mix with. So, while I would love to add him, let's not pretend he's by far and away on a different level as a young player.
Marner had a great rookie season, an up and down sophomore season. I like his long-term potential a lot, but going by history I would be hestitant to conclude that roughly 20/60 as rookie automatically projects to 35/75 as his peak. We've seen plenty of guys who have very long and very productive NHL careers who basically maintain the same level of production they had when they broke in. That wouldn't be an insult or a disappointment, because Marner broke in scoring at a higher pace. We just have to be careful not to get too many stars in our eyes when considering it.
Obviously I threw out a higher price because that's where the Rangers should start. It's always easier to come down in negotiations, then to try and drive the value up after coming in too low.
Maybe the Rangers sweeten the deal to get the higher return, the truth is no one knows at this point.
But finding a player of McD's capability is more difficult than finding one with Marner's capability - and that's not a slight on Marner by any stretch. Maybe McD doesn't post 20 goals or 60 points, but he eats a ton of incredibly difficult minutes and excels. His skating also potentially means he is the type of player who could play for a very long time, even father time does knock him down to a second pairing, or eventually even a third pairing.