Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 8.7.18)

[kovazub94]

"Off the board" in any sport's draft usually means off of the consensus, which in the NHL's case would mean a combination of CSB and media rankings. This is because team draft boards are confidential, so there's nothing else to go by.

There's no rule that dictates the cutoff. It's really just a collective sense of surprise with a pick that's made except by those doing the picking (obviously).

The problem with CSB is that they don't consolidate rankings. To me, it's both helpful and misinformative. Helpful for being a guide but misinformative because it doesn't give you an idea of the overall picture -- the No. 3 forward in Europe could be the 25th-best prospect overall, and the No. 1 goalie could be the 55th, etc. It all varies by year depending on the strength of the respective pools. As was the case in 2014 with Pastrnak -- 5th in Europe but drafted 25th overall because the NA pool was pretty good.

Shestyorkin was 7th among EUR goalies, went 14th overall among goalies drafted in 2014. Halverson was 6th in NA but was the 5th overall goalie taken. It seems like they went off the board with Halverson, who when you factor in Europe was expected to be the what, 8th or 10th goalie taken? That puts him somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round, which to many would be considered "off the board" or "overdrafted".

In 2015, Gropp was rated 71st among NA skaters. Drafted at 41st -- Off-the-board pick by a good round or two.
In 2016, Day was rated 59th among NA skaters. Drafted at 81st -- Went almost exactly were I expected him (had him 79th), as did others.
In 2017, Andersson was rated 3rd among EUR skaters. Drafted at 7th, I had him 15th from a preseason ranking of 10th. This was a gut feeling "off-the-board" pick only because many viewed several others as better in the skill dept. Chytil was rated 11th among Euro skaters and went where he was expected to go.
In 2018, Kravtsov was rated 3rd among Euro skaters and the only surprise was passing on Wahlstrom. I even said on MSG that Kravtsov was a top-10 talent a month before the draft, but ranked him 17th because I was partial to the defenders like Smith, Sandin, Wilde, Dobson and Bouchard -- all of whom were picked after Kravtsov. The depth of the 2018 first round made 15th or 16th be a lot higher in a weaker draft.

I still hate the Andersson pick, but it looks like the Rangers' plan was to get a character/leader type to fill a significant void, and build around that player with skill and speed, almost like a Toews/Chicago situation. So in a way, I have to applaud the Rangers for appearing to have a coherent team-building strategy, but it goes back to the need vs BPA argument we had in 2010 with McIlrath (a pick I fully supported). Clark and Sather, and Mike Barnett before them, are obsessed with size, and it you look at their combined drafting record, the first skater they pick is either big or physical.

2018-Kravtsov (size), Miller (physical/size)
2017-Andersson (physical), Chytil (size)
2016-Day (size)
2015-Gropp (size)
2014-Iverson (size, physical)
2013-Tambellini (size), Buchnevich (size)
2012-Skjei (size)
2011-Miller (size/physical)
2010-McIlrath (size/physical)
2009-Kreider (size/physical)

The question I have is whether or not it will be sustainable as the league shifts towards appeasing the smaller, quicker, fancier players. Do they pass on Jack Hughes for Dylan Cozens or Peyton Krebs? Wouldn't shock me at all.

Pretty good narrative to start your post but I think you grossly oversimplified NYR draft strategy. Pretty much all of these selections had other qualities that were more front and center than simply physicality or size.

 

[Edge]

You know, we spend a lot of time talking about character and leadership with Andersson. But I’ll be damned if we don’t really talk about how good of a player the kid actually is.

 

[nyr2k2]

I look forward to the season starting when we can discuss our players and their progress and not other teams' players and if they're better than our players. In this thread, anyway. Until then...blech.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

I'd probably argue that just because this board doesn't see something coming, or have an understanding of who is out there, doesn't make it off the radar.

This kid was ranked third by CSB and was just outside the top 10 on some lists. Yet it's interesting how he is often viewed as a reach and yet we don't see those terms used with some of our other guys who are just as easily in the same classification.

Additionally, there's this tendency to downplay his ability and accomplishments --- despite it occurring in three professional men's leagues. Heck, even his WJC seems to be remembered more for the medal incident than the nearly goal per game pace at which he scored and the way he elevated the play of "superior" prospects.

Based on his performance last year, I'd argue that his production in the OHL would be at least comparable to Vilardi, and his production at the college level would be close to what Mittelstadt produced --- and that doesn't take into other areas of the game outside of offense.

The takes on Andersson after the WJC in particular are interesting. I've seen in write ups about Lias, I think it was Adam Herman of Blueshirt Banter mention that yes he had 6 goals in 7 games. BUT there's caveats of course. He was a 19 years old, as if he was beating up on younger players or something when the truth is the WJC is mostly 18-20 year olds.

And that sure he scored 6 goals but he was playing with Petterson and Nylander so it must be because of them. Meanwhile I watched every Sweden game, early in the tournament Petterson was not good and was often separated from Lias. And I specifically remember Lias being a driving force on that line, not a passenger just benefiting from his linemates.

I was listening to the Blueshirt Banter podcast and the one guy was saying how after Lias was taken all we heard about was intangibles and the Rangers reached because you can get that stuff later in the draft like the 5th or 6th round. It's just blatantly ignoring Lias' skills and the facts of how he performed in his post draft year and the multitude of high end attributes he really has. It's just looking at him with a glass half empty mindset. Just because he has intangibles doesn't mean you should focus on that and be disappointed that they took a guy with intangibles while ignoring his very good attributes as an actual hockey player. His IQ, vision, two way ability are all great and his shot is lethal. There was tons of talk about Detroit and LA both wanting Lias at 9 and 11 and he was the #3 CSB ranked Euro in the draft but somehow it's gotten twisted into us taking a guy at 7 who should've gone at 20 something.

You are very correct when you say people underestimate Lias and often make comparisons using his lower end while thinking of other prospects' higher ends.

 

[Edge]

The takes on Andersson after the WJC in particular are interesting. I've seen in write ups about Lias, I think it was Adam Herman of Blueshirt Banter mention that yes he had 6 goals in 7 games. BUT there's caveats of course. He was a 19 years old, as if he was beating up on younger players or something when the truth is the WJC is mostly 18-20 year olds.

And that sure he scored 6 goals but he was playing with Petterson and Nylander so it must be because of them. Meanwhile I watched every Sweden game, early in the tournament Petterson was not good and was often separated from Lias. And I specifically remember Lias being a driving force on that line, not a passenger just benefiting from his linemates.

I was listening to the Blueshirt Banter podcast and the one guy was saying how after Lias was taken all we heard about was intangibles and the Rangers reached because you can get that stuff later in the draft like the 5th or 6th round. It's just blatantly ignoring Lias' skills and the facts of how he performed in his post draft year and the multitude of high end attributes he really has. It's just looking at him with a glass half empty mindset. Just because he has intangibles doesn't mean you should focus on that and be disappointed that they took a guy with intangibles while ignoring his very good attributes as an actual hockey player. His IQ, vision, two way ability are all great and his shot is lethal. There was tons of talk about Detroit and LA both wanting Lias at 9 and 11 and he was the #3 CSS ranked Euro in the draft but somehow it's gotten twisted into us taking a guy at 7 who should've gone at 20 something.

You are very correct when you say people underestimate Lias and often make comparisons using his lower end while thinking of other prospects' higher ends.

It’s funny because the assumption would be that Petterson lifted Andersson, when in reality it was the other way around. The kid just doesn’t get credit for how impactful of a player he is.

Even the comments about being a 19 year old playing against younger kids seems like a set-up.

If he does well, it’s only because he’s older and more experienced.

If he sucks, then it’s just proof that he isn’t a higher ceiling player.

Both Andersson and Howden are incredibly smart players, but the downside is that neither receives the credit they deserve for their skills.

 

[bobbop]

Are you saying he’s a worse or better skater than Strome and Villardi?

Better

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It’s funny because the assumption would be that Petterson lifted Andersson, when in reality it was the other way around. The kid just doesn’t get credit for how impactful of a player he is.

Even the comments about being a 19 year old playing against younger kids seems like a set-up.

If he does well, it’s only because he’s older and more experienced.

If he sucks, then it’s just proof that he isn’t a higher ceiling player.

Both Andersson and Howden are incredibly smart players, but the downside is that neither receives the credit they deserve for their skills.

The problem with Lias and Kravtsov is that fans are convinced that Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom are sure fire NHL stars, based on their numbers against kids compared to the numbers of Lias and Kravtsov against adults.

For a large majority of casual fans, it's still not clear that getting 10 points in 40 games in the SHL or KHL for a 17/18 year old is actually a good thing and not something that happens often.

They look at their Elite Prospects page and see that Wahlstrom and Mittelstadt got 94 points, compare it to the 10-ish points our guys got and immediately label the guys we passed up on as future stars. There's no context, no bigger picture. No. Lias is now a 4th line center to them because Pierre compared him to Lindberg and he got 10 points in a full season. Kravtsov will be a bust because he didn't come over this summer. How dare we draft a player who needs time to develop? Completely ignoring the fact that neither Mittelstadt nor Wahlstrom were NHL ready straight out of the draft haha.

I can go on and on. There's always some way they will criticize the player we picked. Lias can be a 20g/50a player and they will still complain because Mittelstadt got 30g/30a. You know, goals are more important. A lot of people have made up their mind and won't stop to actually look and see what kind of player we drafted.

 

[Blue Blooded]

The problem with Lias and Kravtsov is that fans are convinced that Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom are sure fire NHL stars, based on their numbers against kids compared to the numbers of Lias and Kravtsov against adults.

For a large majority of casual fans, it's still not clear that getting 10 points in 40 games in the SHL or KHL for a 17/18 year old is actually a good thing and not something that happens often.

They look at their Elite Prospects page and see that Wahlstrom and Mittelstadt got 94 points, compare it to the 10-ish points our guys got and immediately label the guys we passed up on as future stars. There's no context, no bigger picture. No. Lias is now a 4th line center to them because Pierre compared him to Lindberg and he got 10 points in a full season. Kravtsov will be a bust because he didn't come over this summer. How dare we draft a player who needs time to develop? Completely ignoring the fact that neither Mittelstadt nor Wahlstrom were NHL ready straight out of the draft haha.

I can go on and on. There's always some way they will criticize the player we picked. Lias can be a 20g/50a player and they will still complain because Mittelstadt got 30g/30a. You know, goals are more important. A lot of people have made up their mind and won't stop to actually look and see what kind of player we drafted.

Also, the numbers argument significantly favors Lias and Kravtsov over Wahlstrom and especially Mittelstadt when you take league strength into account. Mittelstadt has put up pathetic numbers for a top pick outside the very small samples of the WJC and his 6-game stint with Buffalo.

Lias was done dominating kids after his D-1 season when he led the SuperElit (the top Swedish J20 league) in basically every statistical category (including PIM) and moved up to get an actual challenge. I bet putting up 200+ points in a season is a lot of fun, but I question how much it helps with development.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Also, the numbers argument significantly favors Lias and Kravtsov over Wahlstrom and especially Mittelstadt when you take league strength into account. Mittelstadt has put up pathetic numbers for a top pick outside the very small samples of the WJC and his 6-game stint with Buffalo.

Lias was done dominating kids after his D-1 season when he led the SuperElit (the top Swedish J20 league) in basically every statistical category (including PIM) and moved up to get an actual challenge. I bet putting up 200+ points in a season is a lot of fun, but I question how much it helps with development.

2nd highest point total ever by a 17-year old in SuperElit, with the only person getting more points being Michael Holmqvist 21 years ago:

 

[Mac n Gs]

It’s funny because the assumption would be that Petterson lifted Andersson, when in reality it was the other way around. The kid just doesn’t get credit for how impactful of a player he is.

Even the comments about being a 19 year old playing against younger kids seems like a set-up.

If he does well, it’s only because he’s older and more experienced.

If he sucks, then it’s just proof that he isn’t a higher ceiling player.

Both Andersson and Howden are incredibly smart players, but the downside is that neither receives the credit they deserve for their skills.

The older and more experienced part gave me a good chuckle because I bet most people don't even realize that Petersson is a month younger than Andersson. Otherwise, you nailed it by saying he doesn't get enough credit for his impact as a player. I attribute some of that blame to Pierre McGuire with his stupid Jesper Fast comment. Lias was putting up better numbers in his draft year in the SHL than Fast put up in his D+1 year.

Better

I had a feeling that's what you were saying, but I just wanted to double check.

 

[nyr2k2]

Yeah, the comments from McGuire about Fast really poisoned the well. The reality here is that even most HF posters don't closely follow the draft beyond the couple names that they hear repeated by the draft-hounds around here. So, when we pick a guy that wasn't talked-up by many of the draft guys for us, and then Pierre says he's like Jesper Fast, that's a massive indictment of the pick to a huge number of people. And it won't be until Andersson is in the NHL producing like a real talent that he'll shake that comparison and the associated feelings from many posters. It silly, but true.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Yeah, the comments from McGuire about Fast really poisoned the well. The reality here is that even most HF posters don't closely follow the draft beyond the couple names that they hear repeated by the draft-hounds around here. So, when we pick a guy that wasn't talked-up by many of the draft guys for us, and then Pierre says he's like Jesper Fast, that's a massive indictment of the pick to a huge number of people. And it won't be until Andersson is in the NHL producing like a real talent that he'll shake that comparison and the associated feelings from many posters. It silly, but true.

And the only reason that lazy comparison was made is because both Fast and Andersson played for HV71. By that logic, I was hoping he'd compare Kravtsov to Kuznetsov but it didn't happen.

 

[Rongomania]

His teammates; the best youths in the whole nation of Sweden call him ‘The Shark’. He has a beast nickname from some of the best hockey players in the world. Respect, he’s got a lot more than a lot of people give him credit for. Born leader and showing progression and more skill constantly throughout his young career.

Also, glad to see the Lias positivity really shining today! The kid deserves it, he’ll be a leader on this team for years to come and I’m enthused about this.

 

[Edge]

The problem with Lias and Kravtsov is that fans are convinced that Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom are sure fire NHL stars, based on their numbers against kids compared to the numbers of Lias and Kravtsov against adults.

For a large majority of casual fans, it's still not clear that getting 10 points in 40 games in the SHL or KHL for a 17/18 year old is actually a good thing and not something that happens often.

They look at their Elite Prospects page and see that Wahlstrom and Mittelstadt got 94 points, compare it to the 10-ish points our guys got and immediately label the guys we passed up on as future stars. There's no context, no bigger picture. No. Lias is now a 4th line center to them because Pierre compared him to Lindberg and he got 10 points in a full season. Kravtsov will be a bust because he didn't come over this summer. How dare we draft a player who needs time to develop? Completely ignoring the fact that neither Mittelstadt nor Wahlstrom were NHL ready straight out of the draft haha.

I can go on and on. There's always some way they will criticize the player we picked. Lias can be a 20g/50a player and they will still complain because Mittelstadt got 30g/30a. You know, goals are more important. A lot of people have made up their mind and won't stop to actually look and see what kind of player we drafted.

It's the pro vs. junior bias, coupled with most European stats not looking as impressive as North American stats. That's been an issue for 25 years at this point.

In the cases of Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom, they're different players than what we drafted as well. But I think there's a tendency to compare them apples to apples style.

Assuming everyone hits their potential, Wahlstrom leans heavier on the goals whereas Kravstov probably figures to be more of an all-around offensive force.

Likewise, Mittelstadt probably leans heavier on the offense than Andersson, but Andersson is the more complete player.

But I think we have a lot more "skill" in the system than we give the team credit for.

Would it be kicked up a notch with a high-end prospect or two from this upcoming draft? Of course.

But whether or not this team lands Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, Byram, Kakko, etc., it still has a good amount of skill.

 

[tradenashnow]

Rangers have been full of a bunch of overpaid, lazy dogs who don't try hard game in and game out the past few seasons who didn't care all that much about winning. Andersson is exactly the opposite of that. IMO, that was a big reason why they drafted him.

 

[007]

Yeah, the comments from McGuire about Fast really poisoned the well. The reality here is that even most HF posters don't closely follow the draft beyond the couple names that they hear repeated by the draft-hounds around here. So, when we pick a guy that wasn't talked-up by many of the draft guys for us, and then Pierre says he's like Jesper Fast, that's a massive indictment of the pick to a huge number of people. And it won't be until Andersson is in the NHL producing like a real talent that he'll shake that comparison and the associated feelings from many posters. It silly, but true.

Good point. Coming at it from a different angle, it's worth noting that McGuire has an absolute man-crush on Fast and sometimes talks about him, as if he thinks he's a borderline 1st-liner.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

It's the pro vs. junior bias, coupled with most European stats not looking as impressive as North American stats. That's been an issue for 25 years at this point.

In the cases of Mittelstadt and Wahlstrom, they're different players than what we drafted as well. But I think there's a tendency to compare them apples to apples style.

Assuming everyone hits their potential, Wahlstrom leans heavier on the goals whereas Kravstov probably figures to be more of an all-around offensive force.

Likewise, Mittelstadt probably leans heavier on the offense than Andersson, but Andersson is the more complete player.

But I think we have a lot more "skill" in the system than we give the team credit for.

Would it be kicked up a notch with a high-end prospect or two from this upcoming draft? Of course.

But whether or not this team lands Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, Byram, Kakko, etc., it still has a good amount of skill.

Which is why I made the Toews/Chicago comparison. Is Toews a star all by himself, or did playing with Kane, Hossa, Keith etc. allow him to be the complete player he was drafted as? I lean towards the latter.

Surrounding Andersson with skill and depth likely makes his development path less bumpy and avoids pigeon holing him as a checker. I don’t see why he can’t develop into a 2C who plays 17-19 mins a night in all situations.

I get why people dont want to focus on other team’s prospects, but it’s just the nature of sports fans of losing teams. Jets fans have been crying over draft misses for four decades. The best way to end any debate over any questionable pick is for the team to win and the player has a key role in it.

 

[Cag29]

The older and more experienced part gave me a good chuckle because I bet most people don't even realize that Petersson is a month younger than Andersson. Otherwise, you nailed it by saying he doesn't get enough credit for his impact as a player. I attribute some of that blame to Pierre McGuire with his stupid Jesper Fast comment. Lias was putting up better numbers in his draft year in the SHL than Fast put up in his D+1 year.

I had a feeling that's what you were saying, but I just wanted to double check.

I can’t stand Pierre McGuire. The guy hates the Rangers.

 

[nyr2k2]

Which is why I made the Toews/Chicago comparison. Is Toews a star all by himself, or did playing with Kane, Hossa, Keith etc. allow him to be the complete player he was drafted as? I lean towards the latter.

Surrounding Andersson with skill and depth likely makes his development path less bumpy and avoids pigeon holing him as a checker. I don’t see why he can’t develop into a 2C who plays 17-19 mins a night in all situations.

I get why people dont want to focus on other team’s prospects, but it’s just the nature of sports fans of losing teams. Jets fans have been crying over draft misses for four decades. The best way to end any debate over any questionable pick is for the team to win and the player has a key role in it.

This is also part of the reason I have advocated keeping around some guys like Zuccarello, Spooner, etc. Not that they're by any means high-end players (Zuccarello is, I guess), but it's important to have some amount of proven talent for your younger prospects to play with. You can't just ice 12 forwards that are in their first three years of play; it's not conducive to the development of anyone. You need some veterans not just leading the way but helping the kids produce, gain confidence, and develop their games.

 

[Mikos87]

Valiardi has something else going for him, and thats puck protection and making plays off of it. Very tough player to defend, and that skill is going to translate into the NHL imo.


He might be a modern day Jason Allison. If the conditioning is there, and the skating is serviceable enough, he's going to be a solid 3rd line center for the Kings this year.

Lias is a different player, will play a different role. He's a utility guy that's going to put up 50 points and be a leader.

The only question in my mind is how soon, and what's his odometer like?

The guys played a Carlos Hagelin like amount of hockey the last couple of years. That's a lot of hard miles on a young body.

 

[Mikos87]

You know there is a part of me that sees Kravstov converting to center down the line.

A big, fast, highly skilled center with his size.... That's a franchise cornerstone type of player.

Kuznetsov was a winger for a while before switching.

 

[Kovalev27]

Which is why I made the Toews/Chicago comparison. Is Toews a star all by himself, or did playing with Kane, Hossa, Keith etc. allow him to be the complete player he was drafted as? I lean towards the latter.

Surrounding Andersson with skill and depth likely makes his development path less bumpy and avoids pigeon holing him as a checker. I don’t see why he can’t develop into a 2C who plays 17-19 mins a night in all situations.

I get why people dont want to focus on other team’s prospects, but it’s just the nature of sports fans of losing teams. Jets fans have been crying over draft misses for four decades. The best way to end any debate over any questionable pick is for the team to win and the player has a key role in it.

this is the best hope of a comparison for me for what lias becomes. a Toews TYPE player. a don't think he'll be as good but I hope this is who he becomes more than anything. this is the type of guy they wanted when they drafted him

 

[bobbop]

Dave Tippett would have almost certainly moved Dylan Strome in a Derek Stepan deal. Strome was in the conversations. It’s not the reason Tippett left the Coyotes (where he was VP of hockey) but it was on his list.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Dave Tippett would have almost certainly moved Dylan Strome in a Derek Stepan deal. Strome was in the conversations. It’s not the reason Tippett left the Coyotes (where he was VP of hockey) but it was on his list.

Dylan Strome and ADA would have sucked, but Dylan Strome and the 7th would have been a steal.

 

[Tawnos]

Dave Tippett would have almost certainly moved Dylan Strome in a Derek Stepan deal. Strome was in the conversations. It’s not the reason Tippett left the Coyotes (where he was VP of hockey) but it was on his list.

Strome was who I wanted, but I was fine with DeAngelo once the Rangers used both 1st rounders on centers.

I still think the Rangers should've gotten a 3rd piece in the deal.