Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 8.7.18)

[Mac n Gs]

It's such an interesting balancing act, because it can be so easy to become fixated on the near hits.

Skjei could've easily been Matteau, or Gaunce, or Samuelsson, or Finn.

Buchnevich could've been Cammarata or Hayden.

JT Miller could've been Mark McNeil.

Then there are guys who rise and fall.

Duclair looked like a steal from 2013-2016. He starts 2018 with his fourth NHL organization.

The more kids you see, the more of an even-keeled approach to the drafts you get.

Yeah, it's something I'm learning with time. I remember that I was raging pick-by-pick during the 2010-2014 drafts without much context or, hell, even that much viewing time of the prospects for whom I was pining. I've started to get a better pick of what Gorton is aiming for down the line, so now I've spent more time trying to guess who will fit that vision.

Even with our lack of picks, I have to give them credit for finding some solid NHLers over the past 6-7 years.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, it's something I'm learning with time. I remember that I was raging pick-by-pick during the 2010-2014 drafts without much context or, hell, even that much viewing time of the prospects for whom I was pining. I've started to get a better pick of what Gorton is aiming for down the line, so now I've spent more time trying to guess who will fit that vision.

Even with our lack of picks, I have to give them credit for finding some solid NHLers over the past 6-7 years.

I can only recall 2 times where I absolutely hated a pick --- Lee Farladeau in 2002 (wanted Stoll), and Hugh Jessiman in 2003 (wanted Getzlaf).

In most other cases, I could at least understand the pick, even if it wouldn't have been my pick.

I think the Rangers have done a very good job of drafting and producing NHL talent post-lockout. When people complain about their inability to produce an "elite" talent, I usually find that I'll ask a few questions and get answers that tend to contort facts and context in order to support the claim.

 

[Tawnos]

It's always interesting to compare the draft 5 or 7 years out, to 1 year out.

Even a slight change in trajectory takes a player from very good to great, or from great to very good.

Some guys trail off, other guys find an extra level. It's always fascinating.

Are you one who believes that the GM who took the guy who finds the extra level had some special insight on the player? Or is your tendency more like mine... which is that most of that is blind luck?

 

[Joey Bones]

I can only recall 2 times where I absolutely hated a pick --- Lee Farladeau in 2002 (wanted Stoll), and Hugh Jessiman in 2003 (wanted Getzlaf).

In most other cases, I could at least understand the pick, even if it wouldn't have been my pick.

I think the Rangers have done a very good job of drafting and producing NHL talent post-lockout. When people complain about their inability to produce an "elite" talent, I usually find that I'll ask a few questions and get answers that tend to contort facts and context in order to support the claim.

You understood the McIlrath pick, then?

 

[Tawnos]

You understood the McIlrath pick, then?

I did. Not that I agreed with the logic or the player the logic was used on, but I did.

Had he developed fully, McIlrath would be a nearly unique player in this league.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I did. Not that I agreed with the logic or the player the logic was used on, but I did.

Had he developed fully, McIlrath would be a nearly unique player in this league.

Had John Scott developed fully, he would have been a unique player as well. Alas, human life is too short to develop some players fully...

 

[Edge]

Are you one who believes that the GM who took the guy who finds the extra level had some special insight on the player? Or is your tendency more like mine... which is that most of that is blind luck?

Both.

I think they have elements and nuances they like and value. There are some players that teams simply will not touch.

Having said that, I also believe every team acknowledges that there is a degree of luck involved.

 

[Kovalev27]

Jessiman was a nightmare pick everyone saw other than the Rangers. Getzlaf was the easy choice. Even Parise. But Jessiman a joke.

Hated Mcilrath over Fowler. Hated it.

Hated Del Zotto over Carlson who was such an obvious choice just like Fowler was and we blew that. I was screaming that day.

Hated kreider over Schroeder to be fair. Was also screaming that day. Thrilled I was wrong on that one.

I LIKE Lias Andersson I do. I despise the pick over much better players in mittelstadt/Vilardi. There’s no defending this choice. 7th overall you need a first line player.


I REALLY like Kravstov and love his upside. But taking him over Wahlstrom or Dobson or Bouchard even was crazy to me. HOWEVER I get why they did it. They were swinging for the fences here hoping for a superstar player. And for a team desperate for a superstar player I get why they did it and why they followed it up with another swing for KAndre Miller. They’re either wrong or right on these picks.

Also explains the follow up safe pick in Lundkvist who’s going to be a top 4 dman no doubt in my mind.

 

[Edge]

You understood the McIlrath pick, then?

I understood what they saw and were thinking, even if I didn't think it was likely to happen or had a strong preference (Tarasenko).

My quote at the time was that I felt McIlrath would probably play in the league and could be a valuable player. I just wasn't sure he would ever justify passing on some of the names that were still on the board.

The element I didn't foresee was how rapidly the game would change between 2010 and 2015. In that regard, McIlrath and Skjei were on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of being a fit for the changes. The game changed in a way that was almost tailor-made for Skjei, nearly as much as it became a game that was going to be incredibly difficult to crack for a guy like McIlrath.

 

[Edge]

Jessiman was a nightmare pick everyone saw other than the Rangers. Getzlaf was the easy choice. Even Parise. But Jessiman a joke.

Hated Mcilrath over Fowler. Hated it.

Hated Del Zotto over Carlson who was such an obvious choice just like Fowler was and we blew that. I was screaming that day.

Hated kreider over Schroeder to be fair. Was also screaming that day. Thrilled I was wrong on that one.

I LIKE Lias Andersson I do. I despise the pick over much better players in mittelstadt/Vilardi. There’s no defending this choice. 7th overall you need a first line player.


I REALLY like Kravstov and love his upside. But taking him over Wahlstrom or Dobson or Bouchard even was crazy to me. HOWEVER I get why they did it. They were swinging for the fences here hoping for a superstar player. And for a team desperate for a superstar player I get why they did it and why they followed it up with another swing for KAndre Miller. They’re either wrong or right on these picks.

Also explains the follow up safe pick in Lundkvist who’s going to be a top 4 dman no doubt in my mind.

Mittelstadt could be an interesting debate.

Vilardi to me is a very similar player to Andersson. The difference being he is a Canadian kid, playing against other kids, and so his numbers look prettier. But the style of play, and even the concerns are fairly similar.

Del Zotto over Carlson really wasn't something I spent time gnashing teeth about. I would also argue it really didn't tip in Carlson's favor until a good 5 to 6 years after the draft. He kept climbing, Del Zotto fell off. That brings me back to one of my earlier comments about looking at drafts 5 and 6 years out and now just 2-4. Because if you're looking at the 2-4 window, Del Zotto was the better player.

 

[Thordic]

MDZ had a really odd development path. His first few years after the draft he looked like he'd be an all-star. But he never quite put it together and while he didn't bust he certainly looked like he'd be better than the journeyman he turned out to be.

I wanted Carlson as well at the draft but agree with Edge. Until the last couple years there was no clear winner there.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I mentioned it in another thread, but why isn’t Lias viewed in the same light as Bo Horvat? Hell, he’s already outpacing his D+1 scoring and had a much more dominant U20 performance.

 

[Edge]

MDZ had a really odd development path. His first few years after the draft he looked like he'd be an all-star. But he never quite put it together and while he didn't bust he certainly looked like he'd be better than the journeyman he turned out to be.

I wanted Carlson as well at the draft but agree with Edge. Until the last couple years there was no clear winner there.

Sometimes with kids, especially with defenseman, it seems like they garner attention when they're younger but then kind of fade unless their game continues to make meaningful progress. They're value is also more greatly impact by injuries and changes to the game.

Names like Luke Schenn, Dion Phaneuf, Erik Johnson, and hosts of others were once hot young defenseman whose careers never quite matched the early excitement and returns they generated.

 

[Edge]

I mentioned it in another thread, but why isn’t Lias viewed in the same light as Bo Horvat? Hell, he’s already outpacing his D+1 scoring and had a much more dominant U20 performance.

Personally, I've always felt Andersson is in that ROR, Horvat, Huberdeau (pre-2017) mold.

 

[NYR Viper]

Sometimes with kids, especially with defenseman, it seems like they garner attention when they're younger but then kind of fade unless their game continues to make meaningful progress. They're value is also more greatly impact by injuries and changes to the game.

Names like Luke Schenn, Dion Phaneuf, Erik Johnson, and hosts of others were once hot young defenseman whose careers never quite matched the early excitement and returns they generated.

That and I think the same quick transition of the game's pace hindered MDZ's game in the same way it hindered McIlrath's chances of making the NHL. MDZ was never fleet of foot and as the game progressively got quicker, he fell off

 

[mrmovies779]

I LIKE Lias Andersson I do. I despise the pick over much better players in mittelstadt/Vilardi. There’s no defending this choice. 7th overall you need a first line player.

I have to ask how you are sure Lias cant become a 1st liner/top 6 player,but the other 2 are already locks

 

[Levitate]

That and I think the same quick transition of the game's pace hindered MDZ's game in the same way it hindered McIlrath's chances of making the NHL. MDZ was never fleet of foot and as the game progressively got quicker, he fell off

To be honest, and this might be making excuses, I feel like Tortorella kind of hindered Del Zotto in the end. Del Zotto could pass and had good offensive instincts and while he wasn't a great skater, he was good enough. Torts wanted that conservative defensive shell style of play, didn't like taking risks, and they also ultimately kept trying to play Del Zotto on his wrong side until it was obvious it wouldn't work and then they traded him.

He had his issues but in a slightly different environment he might have done better

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I have to ask how you are sure Lias cant become a 1st liner/top 6 player,but the other 2 are already locks

My biggest problem with people who call Lias a reach, is that they never mention Chytil who was an even bigger reach. Lias was still picked in the range where he was projected. And while we can all agree that he was probably a safer pick, I think people forget WHY the Rangers went with the safer pick, and that is because we did not have a 1st rounder in the 4 drafts between 2013 and 2016.

It's also way too early to say that guys like Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Suzuki etc will be better players.

 

[Off Sides]

Not sure it was that MDZ was not quick enough, it seemed to me he just started to try to make a pass through a forechecker rather than trying to skate it around him then make the pass, it resulted in turnovers too often.

MDZ bigger issue in my opinion, he was not good in his own corner under pressure and it really was sort of magnified in the ECF against the Devils that year. They were soft dumping into his corner with much puck retrieval success.

 

[Tawnos]

My biggest problem with people who call Lias a reach, is that they never mention Chytil who was an even bigger reach. Lias was still picked in the range where he was projected. And while we can all agree that he was probably a safer pick, I think people forget WHY the Rangers went with the safer pick, and that is because we did not have a 1st rounder in the 4 drafts between 2013 and 2016.

It's also way too early to say that guys like Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Suzuki etc will be better players.

Perception is such a funny thing. Mittelstadt is widely regarded as being a superior, and in many circles a FAR superior, prospect. The only places Mittelstadt had a demonstrably better performance last year was at the WJC and in his short NHL stint. Both extremely short samples and Andersson's WJC performance was still top-notch. Otherwise, Mittelstadt's 30 in 34 in college isn't far better than Andersson's 14 in 22 in Sweden and 14 in 25 in the AHL.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Perception is such a funny thing. Mittelstadt is widely regarded as being a superior, and in many circles a FAR superior, prospect. The only places Mittelstadt had a demonstrably better performance last year was at the WJC and in his short NHL stint. Both extremely short samples and Andersson's WJC performance was still top-notch. Otherwise, Mittelstadt's 30 in 34 in college isn't far better than Andersson's 14 in 22 in Sweden and 14 in 25 in the AHL.

True. I think a lot of people fail to see the context when looking at production in pro-leagues when it comes to teenagers. Look at Kravtsov and how people on social media criticize him for "only" having 7 points in 35 games in the KHL regular season last season.

Lias had a unique season where he played in the SHL, AHL, CHL, SHL, World Juniors, Euro Hockey Tour, and capped it off with the World Championships. And that doesn't even include the pre-season. He played a total of 112 games, while Mittelstadt had close to 50. That's not to say Mittelstadt had a bad season though.

 

[Levitate]

I think it's easy to look at 5 points in 6 NHL games and say "wow Middlestadt is awesome" and maybe he will be, I dunno. I only caught his first game and he wasn't a standout, but I don't know that it's fair to assume he would be.

But he'll likely play with far more talented players than Andersson in the upcoming year, so the comparisons will continue...

 

[Fvital92]

My biggest problem with people who call Lias a reach, is that they never mention Chytil who was an even bigger reach. Lias was still picked in the range where he was projected. And while we can all agree that he was probably a safer pick, I think people forget WHY the Rangers went with the safer pick, and that is because we did not have a 1st rounder in the 4 drafts between 2013 and 2016.

It's also way too early to say that guys like Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Suzuki etc will be better players.

Well, it's more concerning reachingat 7th than 21st and normally there is a consensus top 10 players, after that the numbers of players that could go 12th or 31st is gigantic so people don't freak out as much as when a team go off board at 7th.


Btw, I don't consider Lias a reach.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Well, it's more concerning reachingat 7th than 21st and normally there is a consensus top 10 players, after that the numbers of players that could go 12th or 31st is gigantic so people don't freak out as much as when go off board at 7th.


Btw, I don't consider Lias a reach.

That's the thing. There isn't a clear 1-for-1 ranking. It's ranked in tiers.

Tier 1: Hischier & Patrick
Tier 2: Pettersson, Glass, Heiskanen & Makar
Tier 3: Mittelstadt, Suzuki, Andersson, Tolvanen, Necas, Liljegren, Kostin
Tier 4: Tippett, Foote, Rasmussen, Brannstrom and a bunch more

Tolvanen was the most shocking drop on draft day, and Liljegren is another one I expected to go higher based on where he was ranked earlier. Him having mono saw him drop a bit further though.

 

[Tawnos]

That's the thing. There isn't a clear 1-for-1 ranking. It's ranked in tiers.

Tier 1: Hischier & Patrick
Tier 2: Pettersson, Glass, Heiskanen & Makar
Tier 3: Mittelstadt, Suzuki, Andersson, Tolvanen, Necas, Liljegren, Kostin
Tier 4: Tippett, Foote, Rasmussen, Brannstrom and a bunch more

Tolvanen was the most shocking drop on draft day, and Liljegren is another one I expected to go higher based on where he was ranked earlier. Him having mono saw him drop a bit further though.

Vilardi should be in that third group, but otherwise... exactly right.